Who should USFS select for Skate America?
Is it too early to start speculating?
Each host federation gets to reserve three homies. Then they choose one skater from 1-3 at worlds, and then one skater from 4-6. After that there is a draw to choose from the next group of placements at worlds, and then a final draw for extra spots to fill out the roster. In ladies, assuming that Yu-na Kim officially announces before the draw that she it out, the top three are Ando, Kostner and Leonova. The next three are Czisny, Asada, Makarova.
The top skaters get some say as to their preferences. For instance, Czisny might prefer her good luck charm, Skate Canada International, to Skate America. (She could do both, however.) It is traditional to give the first right of refusal to the U.S. champions, then go down the list. (Johnny Weir never wanted to do Skate America, for instance, because it came too early in the season.).
There is some sentiment that we don’t want all the top U.S. skaters to compete against each other and knock each other out. (But wherever you skate there will be top skaters that might knock you out.) There is also the consideration that you want all of your most popular skaters at your home event to attract a large audience and make for a good TV event.
A think the USFSA should go with Alissa. Mirai and Agnez (host picks – I assume that Rachael will not participate), Try to get Kostner from 1-3. (But Ando might request Skate America. As world champion her wishes carry some influence.) We wouldn’t have a pick from 4-6 because we already have Alissa. Then try to get Murakami and Korpi from the next group.
That would be a hum-dinger of a show. It would be a challenge for all the American ladies to medal, but that’s what competition is all about, right?
she takes the audience on her journey of emotions
Really? I would think the USFS wouldn't to bunch Alissa, Mirai and Agnes in the same event. They're too good, at least potentially.
I mean, last year they chose Zhang and Gilles to join Rachael. But it would be fun to have at least two competitive U.S. ladies at the competition.
It would be fabulous if Alissa decides on skate America. Then I would say it would also be great to see Agnes. Imagine if Agnes medaled or even pulled off a victory? That would totally jump start her career and bring attention in the U.S. press. (well, relatively speaking - as much press as we can hope for with figure skating which really means hometown newspapers, Phil Hersh and maybe a story about her in one of the bigger newspapers in the days before nationals.)
Third entry could be whoever. Maybe Zhang.
This is assuming Rachael opts out, which I'm not assuming. If she doesn't, I'd bet they would ask Rachael as she has been the to last two. So it would be Alissa and Rachael.
Any of the top three from worlds would be great to have, can't go wrong there. I imagine they would ask Miki or Yuna before Carolina. I'd love to see any of the three.
If Alissa opts out for whatever reason, ask Alena. She's fun. Or Mao? And then yeah, definitely Kanako or Korpi. I imagine it would be hard not to ask Kanako right? I mean she'd be the defending Skate America champion. And she was a big hit last year.
Last edited by Layfan; 05-02-2011 at 07:10 PM.
yey! This is an interesting intellectual exercise. Before I post mine, I have a couple of questions.
1. Davis & Whit won the gold medal, so if I place them into the SA slot, do they also take up the "choose one skater from 1-3 at worlds" slot, and so I could only choose 2 more homies rather than 3 homies?
2. What is the rule of newly minted seniors coming from the Jr. ranks, especially those who medaled, e.g., ice dance Jr. world bronze medalists, Charlotte LICHTMAN / Dean COPELY?
Last edited by CARA; 05-02-2011 at 08:19 PM.
Question one, I would think that they would be a choose 1-3 for both their events. So if they take the SC spot (Don't think that is likely because I would guess that SC would want Voir there), they could still get in Skate America as a 1-3 pick. But I think the max any host country can have is three, so yes you would only choose 2 others.
Originally Posted by CARA
Regarding question 2, I believe their assignments would be based on their Season's Best (22nd) and ISU ranking (currently 30th). I say that based on those rakings, Lichtman and Copley will easily get at least one GPF invite at home and look good to get another invite somewhere else.
Fun game, MM. I'll do ladies for now.
(Just noticed that a 1-3 seed did not compete last year; was this going to be Yuna's event? I thought Min-Jung replaced her for COC. Or was this Lepisto's event?)
1. Ando (1-3 pick; reigning world champion
2. Alissa (4-6 pick; reigning nat'l champion; good for TV)
3. Wagner (Home pick; She always end up in other countries, be interesting to see what she does at home)
4. Gao ( Home pick; Thinking it would be fun to start her GPF early, also fun to pit her again Murakami)
5. Murakami (she won here last year!)
6. Korpi (Agree with you MM on this one)
9. Hecken (she did well at Worlds)
FYI: List of skaters from whom you could choose.
Single skatings (Men's & Ladies) 12 slots;
Ice Dancing - 10 slots;
Pair Skating - 8 slots.
Men's - Top 12, Worlds
1 Patrick CHAN CAN; 2 Takahiko KOZUKA JPN; 3 Artur GACHINSKI RUS;
4 Michal BREZINA CZE; 5 Daisuke TAKAHASHI JPN; 6 Nobunari ODA JPN;
7 Florent AMODIO FRA; 8 Brian JOUBERT FRA; 9 Richard DORNBUSH USA;
10 Javier FERNANDEZ ESP; 11 Ross MINER USA; 12 Tomas VERNER CZE.
Men's - Top 6, US Nationals
1. Ryan Bradley; 2. Richard Dornbush; 3. Ross Miner;
4. Jeremy Abbot; 5. Armin Mauhbanoozadeh; Adam Rippon
Ladies - Top 14, Worlds (becuase Yuna & Rachael might not participate)
1 Miki ANDO JPN; 2 Yuna KIM KOR; 3 Carolina KOSTNER ITA;
4 Alena LEONOVA RUS; 5 Alissa CZISNY USA; 6 Mao ASADA JPN;
7 Ksenia MAKAROVA RUS; 8 Kanako MURAKAMI JPN; 9 Kiira KORPI FIN;
10 Elene GEDEVANISHVILI GEO; 11 Sarah HECKEN GER; 12 Rachael FLATT USA;
13 Cynthia PHANEUF CAN; 14 Mae Berenice MEITE FRA
Ladies - Top 7, US Nationals (becuase Rachael might not participate)
1. Alize Czisny; 2. Rachael Flatt; 3. Mirai Nagasu;
4. Agnes Zawadzki; 5. Christina Gao; 6. Ashley Wagner; 7. Vanessa Lam.
Ice Dance - Top 12, Worlds
1 DAVIS/WHITE USA; 2 VIRTUE/MOIR CAN; 3 SHIBUTANI/SHIBUTANI USA;
4 PECHALAT/BOURZAT FRA; 5 WEAVER/POJE CAN; 6 BOBROVA/SOLOVIEV RUS;
7 ILINYKH/KATSALAPOV RUS; 8 CAPPELLINI/LANOTTE ITA; 9 CHOCK/ZUERLEIN USA;
10 CRONE/POIRIER CAN; 11 ZHIGANSHINA/GAZSI GER; 12 CARRON/JONES FRA.
Ice Dance - Top 6, US Nationals
1 DAVIS/WHITE; 2 SHIBUTANI/SHIBUTANI; 3 CHOCK/ZUERLEIN;
3 Hubbell/Hubbell; 5 Kriengkrairut/Guilietti-Schmitt; 6 Cannuscio/Lorello.
I've omitted junior medal recipients as I've tired. Hope you understand.
Oops, here are the pairs:
Pair Skating - Top 9, Worlds
1 SAVCHENKO/SZOLKOWY GER ; 2 VOLOSOZHAR/TRANKOV RUS; 3 PANG/TONG CHN;
4 KAVAGUTI/SMIRNOV RUS; 5 BAZAROVA/LARIONOV RUS; 6 YANKOWSKAS/COUGHLIN USA'
7 DUHAMEL/RADFORD CAN; 8 MOORE-TOWERS/MOSCOVITCH CAN; 9 TAKAHASHI/TRAN JPN
Pair Skating - Top 6, US Nationals
1. YANKOWSKAS/COUGHLIN; 2 Evola/Ladwig; 3 Denney/Barrett (split the pair);
4. Marley/Brubaker; 5. Castelli/Shnapir; 6. Vise/Baldwin.
Last edited by CARA; 05-02-2011 at 07:55 PM.
1. Kozuka (1-3 pick)
2. Oda (4-6 pick; redemption!)
3. Dornbush (home pick)
4. Brown (home pick)
5. Mauhbanoozadeh (home pick reigning medalist)
11. Schultless (if he is still skating)
12. Liebers (I think he did relatively well at Worlds!)
she takes the audience on her journey of emotions
Yeah, I like that thought about Ashley. I'm sure the Skate America crowd would love to cheer her on. The nice thing about Ashley is that she's the approachable girl-next-door sort. It'd be nice if she could find music and a style that sort of reflects that. Ditch Malaguena.
Originally Posted by Mrs. P
Not sure why it'd be fun to pit Christina against Kanako but Christina's as good a pick as any. Also, I thought Skate America was no longer early in the season.
I notice Skate America usually choses the big name, the rising star and the 3rd spot for the not so elite skater/team that needs the experience, the points or did well at summer.
Based on that I think they should pick:
Czisny (national champion, Reigning Grand Prix champion)
Zawadski (already two time junior world medalist)
Any of Forte, Dobbs or Bulanhagui who wont get invited anywhere else.
Abbott (Still top ranked american or maybe Bradley if he continues)
Dornbush (Shoul've been world junior champion)
Any of Razzano, Aaron, Messing or Hochstein (whoever does best at Summer/Senior B's)
Yankowskas/Coughlin (Champions and best result in pairs in a long time)
Cain/Reagan (aged out of Juniors and not likely to get other events)
Any of Donlan/Speroff, Vise/Baldwin or Davis/Leftheris (Indy would be key as always)
Davis/White (First US world champions, no brainer here)
Lichtman/Copely (top junior team aging out)
Samuelson/Bates (no brainer also since they cant get invited anywhere else)
Regarding Lichtman/Copely, I was under the impression that World Jr. Medalists got 2 GPs. Under those circumstances it would be nice to see another team get SA who might not get another invite.
I think SA will likely get Kozuka. Assuming he will skate at NHK, Kozuka can't compete at SC and COR while COC and TEB take place right before and after NHK, leaving SA the natural choice even if it's the first event. Chan is highly unlikely to come to SA as I'm sure he wants to debut his new program at Skate Canada the week after. Gachinsky will likely prefer COC instead of the early event of SA.
Ando, OTOH, could choose SA, SC or COR, assuming she wouldn't want to compete back to back in China or France. Kostner is open since there is no GP in Italy but probably will not prefer SA either because of its early schedule. Phaneuf, if she stays eligible, is not likely to come to SA for the same reason as Chan.
Schedule of events for consideration:
Cup Of China
Trophee Eric Bompard
Cup OF Russia
Last edited by SkateFiguring; 05-02-2011 at 10:39 PM.
Didn't Ando said somewhere that she was taking an year off during the 2011-2012 season?
Last edited by CARA; 05-02-2011 at 11:10 PM.
Host Picks: Bradley, Dornbush, Abbott. Bradley will WD. Replaced with Mahbanoozadeh
1. Kozuka: No way Chan debuts at SA, not SC a week later. He'll take SC and a European one. Gachinsky would be the logical choice for SA - he's the one the American contingent are most likely to beat. But Kozuka can't have two events back-to-back, which he would if Gachinsky got SA (NHK and either CoC or TEB), so I think he'll chose Skate America.
2. Brezina: Just a guess, really. I doubt Dai wants to come back, and Brezina doesn't have a host federation involved. I wonder about Oda, though.
3. Two from 7-12. Now, we already have one (Dornbush). I can't find a precedent for a case where there were more than two, so I'll assume only one. In that case, Fernandez is the no brainer. If I'm wrong... I'm wrong
--so six so far--
4. Those guaranteed one spot via WR or medal at JGPF/JW: Two skaters. Now, I presume this is the WR after purging, so these guesses are based on faulty numbers, but I'm gonna go with Alexander Majorov (JW podium) and Alban Preaubert (top 24, and will likely remain their after purging)
5. Assumption that they'll be one more draw to finish off the top 24 picks (it seems to me that one way a host federation can force other federations to pick some of their skaters is to avoid picking them for their host spot, if possible. For example, Andrei Rogozine is guaranteed a spot based on his performance at JW and the JPGF, so SC doesn't have to pick him). Lets say they go for Peter Liebers.
6. So, three more to go: Only requirement, top 75 on Season best list. So lets guess Misha Ge (the Frank Carroll connection), Joey Russell and Zoltan Keleman.
So, if I get 33% right, I'll be happy.
China always has to hope for an European top seed at Worlds. Luckily there was Joubert last year and Gachinsky this year. With COC between SC and NHK, they would have a hard time getting a top seed if Chan and two Japanese take the podium.
And SA will never be a favorite first choice, being the first of the season.
ISU really should mix up the schedule, like last year. But it's back to the tradictional time table now.