Who should USFS select for Skate America?

Mathman said:

Davis and White and the Shibutanis cannot compete in the same event.

That is the problem with both Joe's "strategy" idea and the idea of "strongest event possible." The ISU rules prevent both.

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Thanks for pointing that out mathman. I am vaguely aware of the GP selection process which makes sense for the GP series.

Just a little OT note here. I showed clips of the Shibs from Worlds to several of my family members who gave up watching skating,

They were absolutely charmed by their skating and I sensed a chance of their interest returning.

So that is why I suggested the Shibs for SA.
Rules, rules, rules

There were also two - hardly international - comps that were sponsored by Marshalls and I forget the name of the other one. I believe those comps were geared to Kwan which made money for her and for the USFS. They even had one where Kwan could hardly stand up on skates, but she won.

Hernando said:

Thanks for pointing that out mathman. I am vaguely aware of the GP selection process which makes sense for the GP series...

So that is why I suggested the Shibs for SA.
Rules, rules, rules

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After I wrote that, it occurred to me that if the ISU really is going to change the rules to allow seeded skaters to do three events, then they will have to allow two skaters from 1-3 at the same competition.

So maybe next year, under the new rules, we can have both the Davis and White and the Shibutanis at the same event.

Joesitz said:

There were also two - hardly international - comps that were sponsored by Marshalls and I forget the name of the other one...

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2004 was the best year for the good ol' cheesefests. There were three. The spring Marshalls, the fall Campbells, and the Winter Marshalls.

Besides the top Americans (Kwan, Cohen, Kirk, Weiss, Goebel, Weir, Lysacek, etc.), international skaters who participated were: Arakawa (twice) Slutskaya (twice), Ando (twice), Kostner, Sebestyen, Suguri, Plushenko (twice), Joubert (three times), Griazev, Sandhu, and Honda.

The prize money in each event was $50,000 for first, and on down from there. (The same money as you could get from winning the World Championship. )

Mathman said:

After I wrote that, it occurred to me that if the ISU really is going to change the rules to allow seeded skaters to do three events, then they will have to allow two skaters from 1-3 at the same competition.

So maybe next year, under the new rules, we can have both the Davis and White and the Shibutanis at the same event.

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Oh my, what will happen to the fantasy game based on the two events only rule.

Guess my picks not only made sense but were closer than some of the GP experts.

Go Shibs!

and Pogue get back to the drawing board as the game must go on.

Mathman said:

The prize money in each event was $50,000 for first, and on down from there. (The same money as you could get from winning the World Championship. )

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I thought that when the U.S. single skaters won the World Team Trophy 2 years ago, their $30,000 prizes were a record.

Host picks - 3 in each discipline for each host
Seeds - Each host gets 1 of the 1-3 seeds and 1 of the 4-6 seeds in each discipline
Worlds 7-12 - Each host gets 2 in each discipline from this category
World Ranking top 24 - of those not already selected, at least one per host/discipline
SB list top 24 / JGPF medalists / JW medalists - of those not already selected at least one per host/discipline
After all guarantees have been fulfilled, the final selection is to fill still-empty slots. Here is where skaters/teams who have only one or no assignment get a first or second assignment.


THE LADIES



1. Host Picks
Skate America: Alissa Czisny, Christina Gao, Ashley Wagner
Skate Canada: Cynthia Phaneuf, Amelie LaCoste, Myriane Samson
Cup of China: Yan Liu, Bingwa Jeng, Qiuying Zhu
NHK: Miki Ando, Mao Asada, Yuki Nishino
TEB: Mae Berenice Meite, Lena Marrocco, Yretha Silete
Cup of Russia: Alena Leonova, Ksenia Marakova, Adelina Sotnikova

Some Thoughts
I think three of these are fairly straightforward (SC, TEB and CoC) regardless of whether or not I’m right. None of these nations skaters are really going to be challenging for medals much of the time (a Phaneuf fluke notwithstanding). The other three, however, have some tough decisions to make. Firstly, I do expect Ando to submit her name for the GP series, regardless of whether she does it, but I don’t expect Kim to submit hers. So that shifts the tiers so that it’s Ando-Kostner-Leonova and Czisny-Asada-Makarova.

So for CoR, no brainer – picking Leonova and Marakova allows you to avoid facing a whole host of people. Then you’ve got the two junior babies going to seniors. Pick the one who you think will do better, in this case I expect Sotnikova (based on her beating Eliza in three head to heads last season).

For NHK, the same thing. Picking Ando and Asada allows you (if Ando skips the season) to replace her with another host pick. If not, that’s okay too. Realistically, wanting to avoid the top competition in general doesn’t ruin your chances at a GPF spot. Witness the 2010 NHK, where all three medalists earned a spot at the GPF (Flatt, Kostner, Murakami). However, even with that fact, you’ve got Suzuki, Murakami and even Imai who could do well, so send them elsewhere. The third Japanese slot is essentially filler here, unfortunately.

Skate America is the trickiest. Czisny is obviously the host pick. Now, between Zawadski and Gao, it makes sense to chose Gao (if that’s truly the dichotomy). Zawadski is already guaranteed a spot, but Gao isn’t. So why not split the deck a little. And between Wagner and Nagasu, similar logic applies (though Nagasu’s likely getting two spots). Hell, make a deal with TEB to take Nagasu in exchange for NOT taking Brian Joubert or P/B (P/B are so gunning for the Shibs next season, and assuming Joubert wants another go a China)

2. Seeds
Skate America: Alissa Czisny, Alena Leonova
Skate Canada: Carolina Kostner, Mao Asada
Cup of China: Miki Ando, Ksenia Marakova
NHK: Miki Ando, Mao Asada
TEB: Carolina Kostner, Alissa Czisny
Cup of Russia: Alena Leonova, Ksenia Marakova

Some Thoughts
a) If Miki Ando looks to retire, CoC gets her. If not, Skate America does (a deal, in exchange for Nagasu)
b) If Skate America takes Ando, Leonova gets CoC
c) Skate Canada taking a gamble on Kostner and Asada, assuming the former will revert to headcasing it in, and Asada’s restructuring not complete. If not, doesn’t matter, they’ll still be able to sell tickets.
d) NHK and CoR best positioned to avoid the gaggle.

3. Worlds 7-12 (Marakova 6th w/out Kim, Phaneuf becomes 12th without Kim)
Skate America: Elene Gedevanishivili, Kiira Korpi
Skate Canada: Cynthia Phaneuf, Rachael Flatt
Cup of China: Sarah Hecken, Kanako Murakami
NHK: Elene Gedevanishvili, Cynthia Phaneuf
TEB: Kiira Korpi, Rachael Flatt
Cup of Russia: Sarah Hecken, Kanako Murakami

Some Thoughts
a) Flatt’s a question mark. If she submits her name, I think SC will take her in the hopes she doesn’t show-up. The cost of her showing up isn’t all that great because she hurts a group of largely less hopeful candidates anyway, whereas her showing up elsewhere, and showing up healthy could cause some issues for skaters. If she doesn’t submit her name, Mae Bereneice becomes the de facto 12th placer and I think she can just replace Flatt in SC and is already at TEB regardless
b) If Elene does stick with Morosov, I can see her wanting CoR, which would be at the expense of Hecken, who switches to Skate America.

4. World Ranking, top 24, those not selected
So, it’s hard to tell who’ll stay in the top 24 and who will fall out. This is just a rough guestimate.

Will likely submit name and be in top 24: Suzuki, Lepisto, Nagasu, Imai, V. Helgesson, Marchei, (LaCoste, Wagner), Shelepen. LaCoste and Wagner have their spots via host pick.

Skate America: Imai
Skate Canada: Shelepen
Cup of China: Marchei
NHK: Nagasu
TEB: V. Helgesson, Suzuki
Cup of Russia: Lepisto

No real logic. I suspect the GP that takes Viktoria will also take Joshi just for the ‘they’re sisters!’ angle. Anyone who wants to start sucking up in preparation for Sochi will likely be kind to Russian skaters. Anyone who doesn’t care about foreign competition as their skaters aren’t all that great will take on the stronger ones (except for NHK, who’ve already made the deal with SA for Nagasu)

5. SB list top 24 / JGPF medalists / JW medalist

These skaters fit the bill and haven’t been selected yet: Eliza Tuktamisheva, Yasmin Siraj ,Vanessa Lam, Zijun Li, Agnes Zawadski (assumption that Meier won’t submit her name)

Skate America: Zijun Li
Skate Canada: Eliza Tuktamisheva
Cup of China: Agnes Zawadski
NHK: Vanessa Lam
TEB: Yasmin Siraj
Cup of Russia: N/A

6. Fill in the rest from the Top 75 Season best scores
So, so far

Skate America: 8 Skaters
Skate Canada: 9
Cup of China: 9
NHK: 7
TEB: 10
Cup of Russia: 6

Not surprisingly, the three weaker nations have filled more slots. That CoR doesn’t have as many as the rest is just blind luck – the order in the actual meeting room probably affects things too. So..., some more thoughts....

a) Does anyone want to suck up to speedy? Giving Marchei a second slot couldn’t hurt
b) Again, working with the Russian Federation would be giving second slots to the wonderbabies
c) At the same time, Federations likely want someone who’ll actually be good for the crowd too – a solid jumper/interesting artist... something that they’ll take home. And event with memorable skaters is a terrific thing and helps the sport all around
d) There’s a rumour going around that they’ll reduce the number of skaters in singles to ten. I think it’s stupid, but..... Well, rumours.

Skate America: Akiko Suzuki, Mae Berenice Meite, Laura Lepisto, Min-Jeong Kwak
Skate Canada: Adelina Sotnikova, Cheltzie Lee, Ira Vannut
Cup of China: Haruka Imai, Eliza Tuktamisheva, Christina Gao
NHK: Joshi Helgesson, Sonia LaFuente, Polina Shelepin , Agnes Zawadski, Sofia Biryukova
TEB: Amelie LaCoste, Mirai Nagasu
Cup of Russia: Jenna McCorkell, Elena Glebova, Valentina Marchei, Bingwa Geng, Juulia Turkkila, Risa Shoji


So, final line-ups

Skate America: Alissa Czisny, Christina Gao, Ashley Wagner, Alena Leonova, Elena Gedevanishvili, Kiira Korpi, Haruka Imai, Zijun Li, Akiko Suzuki, Mae Berenice Meite, Laura Lepisto, Min-Jeong Kwak

Skate Canada: Cynthia Phaneuf, Amelie LaCoste, Myriane Samson, Carolina Kostner, Mao Asada, Cynthia Phaneuf, Rachael Flatt, Polina Shelepen, Eliza Tuktamisheva, Adelina Sotnikova, Cheltzie Lee, Ira Vannut

Cup of China: Yan Liu, Bingwa Jeng, Qiuying Zhu, Miki Ando, Ksenia Marakova, Sarah Hecken, Kanako Murakami, Valentina Marchei, Agnes Zawadski, Haruka Imai, Eliza Tuktamisheva, Christina Gao

NHK: Miki Ando, Mao Asada, Yuki Nishino, Elene Gedevanishvili, Cynthia Phaneuf, Viktoria Helgesson, Mirai Nagasu, Vanessa Lam, Joshi Helgesson, Sonia LaFuente, Polina Shelepin , Agnes Zawadski, Sofia Biryukova

TEB: Mae Berenice Meite, Lena Marrocco, Yretha Silete, Carolina Kostner, Alissa Czisny, Kiira Korpi, Rachel Flatt, Akiko Suzuki, Yasmin Siraj, Amelie LaCoste, Mirai Nagasu

Cup of Russia: Alena Leonova, Ksenia Marakova, Adelina Sotnikova, Sarah Hecken, Kanako Murakami, Laura Lepisto, Jenna McCorkell, Elena Glebova, Valentina Marchei, Bingwa Geng, Juulia Turkkila, Risa Shoji

Are the Russian juniors moving up to seniors for the GP? I'm not sure if they made a decision on that yet.

miki88 said:

Are the Russian juniors moving up to seniors for the GP? I'm not sure if they made a decision on that yet.

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On another thread (Ando vs Leonova) I read that Pissev is sending Adelina and Liza to senior GP's for next season.

I don't care who goes where as long as i don't have to watch Rachael Flatt skate anymore.

There are going to be some big changes to the GP events this year.

For one thing, the number of dance teams in each event is reduced to 8 (from 10), and singles to 10 (from 12). Pairs remains at 8.

There is a new minimum score per discipline, based on 2/3s of the the top Seasons Best total score.
For men, that is roughly 187, which would make only the top 45 men on the SB list eligible for the GP.
For ladies, 134 - top 50 on the SB list eligible
For pairs, 145 - top 23 on the SB list eligible, but Marley/Brubaker (at 24) are not eligible
For dance, 123 - top 35 on the SB list eligible

Seeds will have the option of doing 3 events to fill vacancies.
The other substitutions will be assigned by the ISU from the top score list.

Skaters will have the opportunity to up their top scores prior to the GP by competing in Senior B competitions such as Nebelhorn. You can bet that Nebelhorn will have huge rosters, as it is one of the few "B"s that take place before the start of the GP.

Skaters like Marley/Brubaker who don't meet the minimum score cannot get any initial GP assignments. If they do an international and raise their scores, they will be placed on the substitute list and will have to wait for withdrawals. However, there may be skaters with higher scores but only one assignment ahead of them on the list, so even making the minimum score won't guarantee that they will get to compete in the GP.

There may be more changes as well. I don't know when the ISU is having the GP meeting this year. It is usually mid-June, but with the extended season, the meeting may be delayed.

Jammers said:

I don't care who goes where as long as i don't have to watch Rachael Flatt skate anymore.

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I feel the same way about Cynthia Phaneuf.

Imaginary Pogue What a lot of work you put in on that! I love it, (Even if it turns out all wrong. )

chuckm said:

There is a new minimum score per discipline, based on 2/3s of the the top Seasons Best total score.

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Does this also apply to host picks?

Seeds will have the option of doing 3 events to fill vacancies.

The other substitutions will be assigned by the ISU from the top score list.

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Are substitutions assigned by the ISU, or does the host organization invite extra people to fill vacancies.

Is filling vacancies for withdrawn skaters the only way that seeds can get a third assignment? When a vacancy occurs, does the ISU just go down the list of seeds from the top, until someone says yes? Does the host federation have anything to say about whether they want an extra seeded skater?

Mathman said:

After I wrote that, it occurred to me that if the ISU really is going to change the rules to allow seeded skaters to do three events, then they will have to allow two skaters from 1-3 at the same competition.

So maybe next year, under the new rules, we can have both the Davis and White and the Shibutanis at the same event.

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Your abrupt comments, MM sometime make me dizzy. There is a catch here because the Rule is not as you carefully left it out that says the podium skaters will each be in a separate events. They will not meet unless they both qualify for the Finals, and that's the Rule. But you knew that didn't you.

2004 was the best year for the good ol' cheesefests. There were three. The spring Marshalls, the fall Campbells, and the Winter Marshalls.

Besides the top Americans (Kwan, Cohen, Kirk, Weiss, Goebel, Weir, Lysacek, etc.), international skaters who participated were: Arakawa (twice) Slutskaya (twice), Ando (twice), Kostner, Sebestyen, Suguri, Plushenko (twice), Joubert (three times), Griazev, Sandhu, and Honda.

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There were seldom more than one international in any given event. It was Americans plus one from canada usually. Others used it for the money and a chance to tweek their programs. They were hardly worth watching. Only that sunday crowd that liked gimmicks would watch. When the sponsors saw that that the sunday crowd didn't enhance their profits. the cheesfests disappeared. The last one was a dilly with a winner by phone call vote. They were just not first class competitions.

Joesitz said:

Your abrupt comments, MM sometime make me dizzy. There is a catch here because the Rule is not as you carefully left it out that says the podium skaters will each be in a separate events. They will not meet unless they both qualify for the Finals, and that's the Rule. But you knew that didn't you.

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That was the old rule. The new rule just announced in ISU Communication #1671 does allow the possibility that two podium finishers will be at the same event in the 2011-2012 season Grand Prix.

You're right -- it makes us dizzy to try to keep track of all these changes.

I'm confused



But I would like to see Carolina Kostner, Adam Rippon, The Shibutanis and Mirai Nagasu at Skate America, just cuz I'll miss seeing them over the summer.

Mathman said:

After I wrote that, it occurred to me that if the ISU really is going to change the rules to allow seeded skaters to do three events, then they will have to allow two skaters from 1-3 at the same competition.

So maybe next year, under the new rules, we can have both the Davis and White and the Shibutanis at the same event.

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Sorry, I didn't know the new Rule yet. I'll get around to it and others during my annual hibernation. There must be more to this dividing up the BigSix events. It begs the question when something is not broken, why fix it. Oh, the cynic I am.



]

CARA said:

Joe, and those who are interested in the GP selection rules might want to read up the excellent dicussions/explanations at pp.24-27 of "Ice Dance - FD" within World Figure Skating Championship Folder. Chuckm, Mathman, ImaginaryPogue, Wollylutz, & those who are knowledgeable really lays out the rules. I learned a lot, and that's part of the reasons I hang around GS beside being an enthusiastic figure skating fan!

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Thank you Cara. I did respond to first explanation of Chuckum's but somehow it disappeared. I didn't notice anything too drastic about using Elite skaters for a third event except for Pairs. Without repeating that entire response, I would like clarification on Marley/Brubaker chances to be in the GPs.

Joesitz said:

It begs the question when something is not broken, why fix it. Oh, the cynic I am.

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But then again, why be afraid of change?

I think there is something broken about the Grand Prix. Namely, no-one gives a rusty hoot about the individual events. Its all about trying to accrue enough points to get into the finals.

Why bother to attend Skate America or to try to watch NHK on television? All I have to do is read the newspaper the next day to see how many points someone got. The competitions themselves have become less and less interesting over the years. (JMO, of course.)

Joesitz said:

There were seldom more than one international in any given event. It was Americans plus one from Canada usually.

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I liked them. The competition was often better that at the typical Grand Prix event.

There were two kinds of cheesefests. Events that were sanctioned by the ISU as “international” were required to have a certain number of skaters from different countries. I think the rule was that three different countries had to be represented.

The other events were designated on the ISU event calendar as “national events.” These were for American skaters only.

For instance, in 2004 all three of the cheesefests were international. The April Marshalls has skaters from USA, Japan, Russia, and France. The ISU judges were from FRA, JPN, RUS, CAN, and USA.

The December Marshalls had skaters from Russia, USA, and France. Judges were from JPN, USA, RUS, FRA, and CAN.

The October Campbells had skaters from USA, Japan, Hungary, Canada, and France. Judges were from USA, CAN, RUS, FRA, JPN

The next year, 2005, was the Olympic year and the cheesefest sponsors decided to showcase the American skaters only.

After that, the bottom fell out of the figure skating market and these shows disappeared.

^^^
I'm not so sure about no one caring about the individual events. Those who look at competitive figure skating care. It's just the arm chair ones who like the gimmicks that don't give a hoot, but they will look at them for the sake of perceived art while serious fans look at new skaters on the block, improvements in Tech, Performance, and overal all competitive skating whether they make the finals or not. But you could be right that some fans only want to watch the seeded skaters. well, so be it. I, and others like to take it all in.

Enough on the Cheesefests, we'll agree to disagree on that topic as to whether they were the next best thing to Worlds.

chuckm said:

I feel the same way about Cynthia Phaneuf.

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What, you don't like suspense?