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Thread: Which seeded skaters will do three GP events?

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    Which seeded skaters will do three GP events?

    I have not started a speculation thread before but now that it's off season and I'm inspired by two hot threads - "Changes To GP Structure for 2011-2012" and "Who should USFS select for Skate America?"

    Next season the seeded skaters can participate in 3 GP events but each will have only 2 counted toward ranking points and GPF entry. Obviously they have to indicate their decisions before the assignments since they will affect the rest of the entries. Given the restrictions that these skaters cannot meet each other in the same category, i.e. 1-3 and 4-6, in these events, it's a bit tricky which events they may be slotted in. Then there are locations and schedule each seed will have to consider, complicating things further. What do the seeds get out of going to an extra event? Prize money. But no extra credits, no better GPF chances, no team benefits. Is it worth the time, energy, expenses, and jet lags? Especially for anyone who is also a student. Will any of them want to do back to back competitions?

    This is the event order to consider:

    Skate America
    Skate Canada
    Cup Of China
    NHK
    Trophee Eric Bompard
    Cup OF Russia

    These are the seeds:

    LADIES:

    1. Miki ANDO*
    2. Yuna KIM*
    3. Carolina KOSTNER
    4. Alena LEONOVA
    5. Alissa CZISNY
    6. Mao ASADA
    7. Ksenia MARAKOVA
    8. kanako MURAKAMI

    *Likely not participating in GP series.


    MEN

    1. Patrick CHAN
    2. Takahiko KOZUKA
    3. Artur GACHINSKY
    4. Michal BREZINA
    5. Daisuke TAKAHASHI
    6. Nobunari ODA


    So, which 2 or 3 events will each seed go to?
    Last edited by SkateFiguring; 05-07-2011 at 06:31 PM.

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    Suzuki, Korpi, Lysacek and Verner are not seeded skaters.

    Seeded skaters are the top 6 from 2011 Worlds.

    For MEN:
    Chan
    Kozuka
    Gachinski
    Brezina
    Takahashi
    Oda

    For LADIES:
    Ando
    Kim
    Kostner
    Leonova
    Czisny
    Asada

    If Kim and Ando decide not to do the GP and are not given initial assignments, then Makarova and Murakami move up to seeded status. However, if Kim and Ando ARE given assignments and later withdraw from them, then those seeded positions are vacant and will be filled with substitute skaters (the 3-6 seeds if they have not already opted for 3 events, otherwise skaters from the substitute list).

    Korpi and Verner are each guaranteed two assignments for finishing in the top 12, but are not seeded and cannot do 3 events. If Lysacek wants to compete in the GP, he is guaranteed two assignments as a returning Olympic medalist, but he will not be seeded. Suzuki is not guaranteed two assignments, but probably will get two.

    Kostner is having ankle surgery during the off season, so it is doubtful that she would be able to do 3 events. Even if Ando and Kim decide to do the GP, both have indicated how exhausted they are, so their participation in 3 events is unlikely.

    On the Men's side, Brezina and Takahashi have had their injuries this season and probably wouldn't want to do 3 events.
    Last edited by chuckm; 05-07-2011 at 06:19 PM.

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    So I was confused about the seeds. Worlds standings were my initial understanding but all these talks about world ranking got to me. I'm correcting the first post.

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    Given the restrictions that these skaters cannot meet each other in the same category, i.e. 1-3 and 4-6, in these events, it's a bit tricky which events they may be slotted in.
    Indeed, it is impossible for that restriction to be retained if even one seeded skater does one extra event.

    My understanding is that after the host picks, then after the seeded skaters get their two, then after all the skaters that are guaranteed one or two spots get their guarenteed allotment -- then the ISU will start "assigning" skaters to fill the remaining spots.

    This is strange language to me, because it seems like the remaining spots should be filled by invitation of the host, not by iSU "assignment."

    Anyway, I presume, but do not know, that the ISU will offer the seeds first choice of refusal f r the vacasnt spots, then go down their various lists after that.

    As to what the seeded skaters get out of the deal, the only thing I can think of is the extra prize money. Or maybe they just like to compete.

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    IIRC Takahashi is going to have a surgery this summer, I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't compete in the GP events

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    The host picks, 1-6 seeds and 7-12 at Worlds are chosen first, in that order. THEN comes selection from the rest of the top 24 in World Ranking, and then from the rest of the top 24 on the Seasons Best list.

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    If Kim and Ando drop out, and maybe Kostner due to surgery, that will elevate Czisny to the 1-3 category. She might want to do 3 events. (Skate America, Skate Canada and Skate Russia),

    The strategy of her coaching team seems to be to compete is as many events as possible to help ward off nerves when the biggies come around at the end of the season.

    Someone like Murakami might like to do three because, first of all she is young enough to stand the pace , and secondly she could put herself on the map big time with three wins.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    Indeed, it is impossible for that restriction to be retained if even one seeded skater does one extra event.

    My understanding is that after the host picks, then after the seeded skaters get their two, then after all the skaters that are guaranteed one or two spots get their guarenteed allotment -- then the ISU will start "assigning" skaters to fill the remaining spots.

    This is strange language to me, because it seems like the remaining spots should be filled by invitation of the host, not by iSU "assignment."

    Anyway, I presume, but do not know, that the ISU will offer the seeds first choice of refusal f r the vacasnt spots, then go down their various lists after that.

    As to what the seeded skaters get out of the deal, the only thing I can think of is the extra prize money. Or maybe they just like to compete.
    The hosts do the initial selections. After all the slots are filled, the ISU draws up a substitute list, from which all the vacancies are filled in order. Hosts will have no say as to who will fill a vacancy. Of course, in practice if CoR has a vacancy within two weeks of the competition, there might be visa problems for some skaters and not for others.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    If Kim and Ando drop out, and maybe Kostner due to surgery, that will elevate Czisny to the 1-3 category. She might want to do 3 events. (Skate America, Skate Canada and Skate Russia),

    The strategy of her coaching team seems to be to compete is as many events as possible to help ward off nerves when the biggies come around at the end of the season.

    Someone like Murakami might like to do three because, first of all she is young enough to stand the pace , and secondly she could put herself on the map big time with three wins.
    Again it depends on what the Korean, Japanese and Italian federations do at the GP meeting. If they nominate Kim, Ando and Kostner for GP participation and they are all issued invitations, but later withdraw, NO ONE moves up in seeded position.

    If they all decline participation, then yes Czisny becomes #1 seed, Leonova #2, Asada #3, Makarova #4, Murakami #5, and Korpi #6.

    My guess is none of the top three will be withdrawn before or at the GP meeting, they will be chosen for two events each (none of them will opt for 3) and they will withdraw later on from one or more events. So it's up to Czisny (who might do 3), Leonova (not sure, as she isn't that good in the early season) and Asada (could go either way) on subbing for the withdrawn seeds.

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    So say skater X places 2nd and 5th at their first two assignments, and to qualify for the GPF they need to place at least 3rd. Would they be able to enter another GP later in the series? I am a little bit confused and frankly don't think 3 GP assignments is a good idea, especially after two long seasons in a row (Olympic season, Worlds in May...).

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    The possible back to back events will be 3 groups down the schedule: SA + SC, COC + NHK, and TEB + COR.

    The N American seeds are Czisny and Chan.

    The Asian seeds - Ladies: Asada, Murakami, (same category) ; Men: Kozuka, Takahashi, and Oda, the latter two in the same category, with Takahashi possibly not participating, or just 2 events.

    The European seeds - Ladies: Kostner, Leonova (same category), and Marakova; Men: Gachinsky and Brezina.

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    My understanding is the skaters could opt for 3 assignments right off, and they would have to specify which ones were going to count. But the seeds could opt for 2 events only but get the opportunity to do a third because of a withdrawal. In that case, the event as the substitute would not count.

    I agree that the 3-event idea is a bad one, especially since the number of entries has been reduced. In singles, half the roster would be skaters from the top 12 at Worlds!

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    Quote Originally Posted by SkateFiguring View Post
    The European seeds - Ladies: Kostner, Leonova (same category), and Marakova; Men: Gachinsky and Brezina.
    Makarova would be a seed only if one of Ando, Kim, Kostner announced non-participation in the 2011-2012 before or at the GP meeting. If all three were initially assigned to GP events, then Makarova would not be seeded.

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    Quote Originally Posted by SkateFiguring View Post
    The possible back to back events will be 3 groups down the schedule: SA + SC, COC + NHK, and TEB + COR.
    That is an interesting point. I wonder if they scheduled the events that way on purpose.

    In 2005 Alissa was a last minute substitution for Michelle Kwan at Skate America, them a last minute substitution for Sasha Cohen at Skate Canada. She had to pack up and go with only a day or two notice, and she got the assignment in large part because she was the only one who lived close enough to hop on the red eye and make it there in time.

    She got second and first, evidently not having had time to get nervous.

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    Quote Originally Posted by chuckm View Post
    My understanding is the skaters could opt for 3 assignments right off, and they would have to specify which ones were going to count. But the seeds could opt for 2 events only but get the opportunity to do a third because of a withdrawal. In that case, the event as the substitute would not count.

    I agree that the 3-event idea is a bad one, especially since the number of entries has been reduced. In singles, half the roster would be skaters from the top 12 at Worlds!
    Not only is it a pretty bad idea for depriving non-seeded skaters, it is not even enticing or easy for the seeds to do the extra events. So it's not even a pragmatic idea, more of a desperate measure in hope of generating more badly needed cash. I wonder how much the loss from Tokyo will be and how the negotiations are going.

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