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Thread: Selecting Skaters for the GP series

  1. #46
    Banned janetfan's Avatar
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    I still wonder if ISU should not tie in the GP with Worlds.
    It is very possible for a skater to make the GPF and not skate at Worlds.

    If Mirai had not flubbed a spin at Natls or skated just slightly better Rachael , a GPF finalist would have been home watching Worlds over the internet.

    If Speedy is worried about top skaters skipping the GP he could sweeten the pot a little by adding GP wildcards as a way to qualify for Worlds.

    It will get interesting when the Russian babies (there are more than just Adelina and Liza) come of age.

    I still think a few more TOP skaters could be added to the Worlds qualifying round and maybe a fair way to do that would be to base it on GP results.

    As Worlds stands now it feels like the large federations are penalized for being big and having more than one or two good skaters. Is that the goal of ISU? To have the large federations cut back and stop trying to produce good skaters?

    That feels less like a sport and more like a pageant to me. Keeping TOP skaters out of Worlds does not help make Worlds a better and more competitive event,

    Is it any wonder fans are leaving when they see qualifying for the World championship is more similar to the Miss Universe pageant than it is to the soccer World Cup.

  2. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    The rankings have no particular purpose otherwise, except that people like to make lists.
    The World Rankings are also used to select skaters for the Grand Prix. The top 24 on the list have been guaranteed at least one GP event.

    It's a kind of vicious circle. You need points to make it to the GP, and the GP itself awards more points than any other events. It's also unfair to skaters who don't happen to come from host countries. Host skaters who wouldn't qualify under GP criteria get a free ride, and every event has 3 skaters from the host. In some events/disciplines (notably TEB ladies), the host skaters are way down on both Ranking and Seasons Best lists. A non-host skater who is close to but not quite in the top 24 on the Ranking list/SB list would be very lucky to get one event.

    To make the GP a qualifier for Worlds would be even more unfair. The host countries are like elite country club members, and the rest of the World have no chance to get in.
    Last edited by chuckm; 05-12-2011 at 11:07 AM.

  3. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by CARA View Post
    Regarding the Hubbells, I've always considered Keiffer to be the weaker skater than Madison. Do you happen to know who Madison is skating now? Also, is she still with Krylova/Carmelango? I really wish the Hubbells best luck.
    The Hubbells announced their split officially today -- link to the USFS press release: http://www.usfsa.org/Story.asp?id=46152&type=media
    Madison has partnered with Zach Donohue and they will train with Camerlengo et al. at Detroit SC.

  4. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by chuckm View Post
    To make the GP a qualifier for Worlds would be even more unfair. The host countries are like elite country club members, and the rest of the World have no chance to get in.
    That would only be true if only skaters from the "country club" nations participated in the GP. We know that is not the case.

    Still I see what you are getting at.
    Fair is a concept seem differently by different federations.

    A World championship that does not include some of the ToP skaters so some very low ranked skaters can participate is not the most sporting concept.

    I think using the GP for wildcard selections could help the fading GP become more relevant but even that might not bring back fans.

    I am not only talking about USA. I saw many posts from Euro members here who were frantic for internet links to Worlds. Apparently EuroSport was broadcasting the great sport of Darts rather than skating. It seems there was not much TV or even internet availabilty for Worlds in many parts of the World.

    Oddly enough, countries with no or very little interest in skating did get an internet link from ISU.

    Ideas for a fading sport need to be considered. Nowhere as much as in USA because big TV money would be invaluable to ISU.

    Skaters that don't qualify for the GP should not be the biggest concern. Those skaters have no chance of winning anything but their own Natls and that would mostly be at the minnow feds.

    Does the whole sport have to be held back so Miss Albania gets to skate at Worlds?
    The pageant style rule that every federation gets a chance at a Worlds slot is outdated not to mention non-competitive.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sylvia View Post
    The Hubbells announced their split officially today -- link to the USFS press release: http://www.usfsa.org/Story.asp?id=46152&type=media
    Madison has partnered with Zach Donohue and they will train with Camerlengo et al. at Detroit SC.
    Thank you for the information, Sylvia. I'm glad that Madison and Zach continue under Camerlengo et al. I liked the Hubbells' program, which I though was a marked improvement from what they got from their previous coaches.

    With Madison & zach the best luck.

  6. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hernando View Post
    Fair is a concept seem differently by different federations.

    A World championship that does not include some of the ToP skaters so some very low ranked skaters can participate is not the most sporting concept.
    I see your point. And allowing wild-card entries at Worlds to GP finalists, and maybe Euro/4Cs medalists, could make sure that top skaters who could be world medal contenders that year will have the opportunity to contend.

    The number of direct entries vs. qual round entries complicates the numbers in ways I haven't quite wrapped my head around yet.

    But the qual rounds plus the minimum scores needed to compete at Worlds (or Euros/4Cs) means that there will never be completely incompetent skaters entered in the final round, taking spots away from potential medalists.

    Allow those wildcard slots to satisfy the demand that the very top skaters should be at Worlds no matter how many others from their federation also qualify, and then the controversy will focus on skaters in the middle of the field. Those who can hope for a top 10 placement on a good day but who might not make it past the short program (or qual round if required to skate in it) on a bad day.

    If a bad day at Worlds last year, perhaps because of injury, means that the skater gets no GP assignments the following year, and no GP assignments means no possibility of qualifying for Worlds, i.e., GP participation is dependent on last year's Worlds and Worlds participation is dependent on this year's GP, then there will be an ever decreasing spiral of skaters who are eligible to compete at Worlds. The only way in for a skater who hasn't already gone to Worlds and placed well there last year would be to get invited to the GP as a host pick. Which is much more accessible to skaters from host federations than those from elsewhere.

    Skaters that don't qualify for the GP should not be the biggest concern. Those skaters have no chance of winning anything but their own Natls and that would mostly be at the minnow feds.
    Not necessarily true. Sometimes skaters have a bad year last year and then go to Worlds and succeed the following year. It helps to have GP experience in that second, good year, but sometimes all they get is junior assignments, senior B assignments, or even a breakout performance at a strong nationals.

    There needs to be room at Worlds for skaters who didn't necessarily compete on the GP that year or do especially well there. Otherwise, for example, should Bradley, Dornbush, and Brezina have been excluded from 2011 Worlds because they didn't compete in the 2010 Grand Prix?

    Relying on world standings taking into account two full years of competition, not just the current season's Grand Prix, might be fair. GP only would not be.

  7. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by gkelly View Post
    I see your point. And allowing wild-card entries at Worlds to GP finalists, and maybe Euro/4Cs medalists, could make sure that top skaters who could be world medal contenders that year will have the opportunity to contend.

    The number of direct entries vs. qual round entries complicates the numbers in ways I haven't quite wrapped my head around yet.

    But the qual rounds plus the minimum scores needed to compete at Worlds (or Euros/4Cs) means that there will never be completely incompetent skaters entered in the final round, taking spots away from potential medalists.

    Allow those wildcard slots to satisfy the demand that the very top skaters should be at Worlds no matter how many others from their federation also qualify, and then the controversy will focus on skaters in the middle of the field. Those who can hope for a top 10 placement on a good day but who might not make it past the short program (or qual round if required to skate in it) on a bad day.

    If a bad day at Worlds last year, perhaps because of injury, means that the skater gets no GP assignments the following year, and no GP assignments means no possibility of qualifying for Worlds, i.e., GP participation is dependent on last year's Worlds and Worlds participation is dependent on this year's GP, then there will be an ever decreasing spiral of skaters who are eligible to compete at Worlds. The only way in for a skater who hasn't already gone to Worlds and placed well there last year would be to get invited to the GP as a host pick. Which is much more accessible to skaters from host federations than those from elsewhere.

    Relying on world standings taking into account two full years of competition, not just the current season's Grand Prix, might be fair. GP only would not be.
    I am not sure if you are agreeing or disagreeing. Maybe a little of both.

    I basically like your thoughts and I specifically used the GP as an example because this season ISU wants/hopes the best skaters will be doing three events rather than two.

    If we are to conisder the reasons for this one of them would be seeing more of the top skaters with the purpose of increasing interest to the much broader base of casual fans.

    My thoughts on Worlds are similar. Last season I believe Akiko, Mirai and Jeremy all medaled at the GP. They are in my mind a step above the average skater and all could finish in the top ten at Worlds and possibly higher.

    Over half the field at Worlds has no chance to crack the top ten let alone challenge for the podium.

    My thought is to make Worlds a bit more inclusive of the TOP skaters. Rather than bumping anyone out of the qualifying round why not add several skaters who most likely are not at Worlds because they are from a very competitive federation, or coming off an injury.

    I can see 4 years from now a possibilty than 5 of the top 10 Ladies in the world will be from Russia. Why only limit them to three when we know the other two are strong skaters who would add excitement to the competition.

    Skating needs to do a better job of showcasing it's top skaters. If Japan next season will have four Men capable of finishing in the top ten why keep one home so a skater with very little chance of making the top 20 can compete?

    A world championship should include the best field and not the most diversified field.
    And there is always the qualifying round which offers skaters a chance from the smaller feds to make an impact and earn a spot inthe final.


    The Olympics is a little different. It is a festival and not a "World Championship" and the diversity there feels more appropriate (except to the top skaters who just miss making their Natl team ).

  8. #53
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    I'm not sure what you're proposing.

    From "I still wonder if ISU should not tie in the GP with Worlds" it sounded as though you were saying that only skaters who competed on the Grand Prix, or even only those who did well there, should be allowed to compete at Worlds.

    That would be a really bad idea for many reasons. Primarily because GP invitations are currently tied to Worlds results and nationality in ways that would result in a closed loop such that good skaters who missed out on one initial big break would never be able to earn their way into either Worlds or the GP.

    If you're saying that in addition to allowing skaters from all countries to try to qualify for the Worlds final (whether through qual rounds or previous international events), Worlds should also be open to all skaters who did well on the GP, regardless of nationality, that I can get behind.

    Over half the field at Worlds has no chance to crack the top ten let alone challenge for the podium.
    And yet, we can't always know who those skaters are, especially when they're new on the scene.
    How many times has a skater had an inauspicious first Worlds and then medaled or contended for medals the next year or the year after that?

    How many times has a reigning or recent world medalist had a bad Worlds and finished well out of the top 10, perhaps not qualifying for the long program.

    Do you need me to offer examples.

    Most skaters who make it as far as the short program at Worlds (i.e., about half the field) do have the potential to eventually crack the top 10, if not that year than in the near future. Some of them even have the potential to medal in the near future.

    Making Worlds an exclusive already-stars-only event that denies the experience of competing on the big stage to young up-and-comers from any federation or from veterans from larger federations who finally have a breakthrough at their nationals (or a combination, as with Dornbush this year) is not the answer.

  9. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by gkelly View Post
    I'm not sure what you're proposing.

    From "I still wonder if ISU should not tie in the GP with Worlds" it sounded as though you were saying that only skaters who competed on the Grand Prix, or even only those who did well there, should be allowed to compete at Worlds.

    That would be a really bad idea for many reasons. Primarily because GP invitations are currently tied to Worlds results and nationality in ways that would result in a closed loop such that good skaters who missed out on one initial big break would never be able to earn their way into either Worlds or the GP.

    If you're saying that in addition to allowing skaters from all countries to try to qualify for the Worlds final (whether through qual rounds or previous international events), Worlds should also be open to all skaters who did well on the GP, regardless of nationality, that I can get behind.



    And yet, we can't always know who those skaters are, especially when they're new on the scene.
    How many times has a skater had an inauspicious first Worlds and then medaled or contended for medals the next year or the year after that?

    How many times has a reigning or recent world medalist had a bad Worlds and finished well out of the top 10, perhaps not qualifying for the long program.

    Do you need me to offer examples.

    Most skaters who make it as far as the short program at Worlds (i.e., about half the field) do have the potential to eventually crack the top 10, if not that year than in the near future. Some of them even have the potential to medal in the near future.

    Making Worlds an exclusive already-stars-only event that denies the experience of competing on the big stage to young up-and-comers from any federation or from veterans from larger federations who finally have a breakthrough at their nationals (or a combination, as with Dornbush this year) is not the answer.
    Forget my initial comment about the GP as that was used to illustrate top skaters stay home while much lesser skaters get to compete at Worlds. I am not suggesting the specific solution here but pointing out what I see as a major flaw in the WC.

    I saw new rankings today and Akiko was what, maybe 3rd or 4th?

    She was also 4th at Japan Natls and had a decent GP season.

    Akiko is a good example of a top skater being being denied a chance to compete at Worlds simply because she comes from the federation with the strongest Ladies team at the moment. Sure Akiko could have gone to Worlds and "bombed" but that would still probably have placed her in the top 15.

    My point is that the system does not serve skating's best interests when it comes to marketing the sport and increasing it's appeal.

    Watching with a couple of friends this season who are very casual fans I was asked, "where is Mirai? They thought since she medaled at Natls and then at 4CC she would be considered good enough for the world championship.

    I told them she was not but added if she was there and skated well she would most likely have medaled. They don't get why a skater good enough to challenge for the podium is not allowed to compete.

    What could I say but "it is more of a pageant than a true WC." They laughed when I called it a pageant even if you don't.

    Any ideas or changes that would include a few wildcard invitations to top ranked skaters that would otherwise miss Worlds would feel like a big step in the right direction to me.

    As you suggested earlier, considering results from other important events and world ranking could be a way to come up with a formula.

    My earlier posts were meant to point out that the GP apparently wants to showcase the top skaters more. I am wondering when ISU will stop excluding top skaters from the world championship.
    Last edited by janetfan; 05-12-2011 at 05:19 PM.

  10. #55
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    ^^^^ All of the above!

    The discussion is very provocative with good points and honest thoughts. However, coming to a consensus on who the Top Skaters are, I believe that thought is already in the minds of the officials who makeup the CoP, and they will organize the Skating Order to best show off the Top Skaters for the public to see. Fairness is not an issue. Money is.

    The CoP has a very complicated system of judging, and many of the 'artisty' fans don't get, the results, and explaining the scoring system to them is just more reason for them to desert the Sport, however, many still look at it for artistry sake, if and only if they have the time.

    The more sporting fans are found on skating forums. They understand the nature of the CoP, if not, it's because the results are rarely different from the 'comparative' system. Did we need the CoP for Chan, Kozuka? for Miki, Yuna? and if we went to the Protocols, would that particular Panel really show the correct results. Scorings in protocols are not the same. So we use the consensus method as did the comparative method.

    There is no discernable cheating in the CoP (praise to be), but the system took away some of the joy of fans who thought skater A was better than skater Y, yet A won. It did not produce a mass CoP learning. Laymen ovations often tell what figure skating is all about since they are totally clear on what clean jumps and spins are to the music. Perhaps like the Reality Shows, there could be a layman vote set up. It just might increase interest in the Sport which is more important now than modifying the CoP. JMO.

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    Quote Originally Posted by gkelly View Post
    I see your point. And allowing wild-card entries at Worlds to GP finalists, and maybe Euro/4Cs medalists, could make sure that top skaters who could be world medal contenders that year will have the opportunity to contend.

    The number of direct entries vs. qual round entries complicates the numbers in ways I haven't quite wrapped my head around yet.

    But the qual rounds plus the minimum scores needed to compete at Worlds (or Euros/4Cs) means that there will never be completely incompetent skaters entered in the final round, taking spots away from potential medalists.

    Allow those wildcard slots to satisfy the demand that the very top skaters should be at Worlds no matter how many others from their federation also qualify, and then the controversy will focus on skaters in the middle of the field. Those who can hope for a top 10 placement on a good day but who might not make it past the short program (or qual round if required to skate in it) on a bad day.

    If a bad day at Worlds last year, perhaps because of injury, means that the skater gets no GP assignments the following year, and no GP assignments means no possibility of qualifying for Worlds, i.e., GP participation is dependent on last year's Worlds and Worlds participation is dependent on this year's GP, then there will be an ever decreasing spiral of skaters who are eligible to compete at Worlds. The only way in for a skater who hasn't already gone to Worlds and placed well there last year would be to get invited to the GP as a host pick. Which is much more accessible to skaters from host federations than those from elsewhere.



    Not necessarily true. Sometimes skaters have a bad year last year and then go to Worlds and succeed the following year. It helps to have GP experience in that second, good year, but sometimes all they get is junior assignments, senior B assignments, or even a breakout performance at a strong nationals.

    There needs to be room at Worlds for skaters who didn't necessarily compete on the GP that year or do especially well there. Otherwise, for example, should Bradley, Dornbush, and Brezina have been excluded from 2011 Worlds because they didn't compete in the 2010 Grand Prix?

    Relying on world standings taking into account two full years of competition, not just the current season's Grand Prix, might be fair. GP only would not be.
    The goal should be to insure the top ten or top fifteen skaters in the world compete at the world championships. Countries such as Japan, the US, and Russia in the near future are leaving potential medalists at home, while skaters are competing at worlds who are far below the skill level of competitive junior skaters in the US. This year, going into worlds, 8 of the top 20 season's best ladies scores were from the US, while 6 of the eight could not compete at senior worlds. There needs to be a direct entry mechanism for allowing competitive skaters to compete. Otherwise, as Hernando suggests, worlds becomes a pageant or exhibition rather than a true championship. In addition, the so called world rankings are heavily skewed to favor European skaters, as these rankings give significant weight to what I think is called "senior B" competitions which are mostly in Europe and mostly attended by European skaters. It is prohibitively expensive in most cases for non Europeans to travel to Europe for a "B" competition. Using seaon's best scores gives a much more representative view of who the top skaters are.

  12. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by b-man View Post
    The goal should be to insure the top ten or top fifteen skaters in the world compete at the world championships. Countries such as Japan, the US, and Russia in the near future are leaving potential medalists at home, while skaters are competing at worlds who are far below the skill level of competitive junior skaters in the US. This year, going into worlds, 8 of the top 20 season's best ladies scores were from the US, while 6 of the eight could not compete at senior worlds. There needs to be a direct entry mechanism for allowing competitive skaters to compete. Otherwise, as Hernando suggests, worlds becomes a pageant or exhibition rather than a true championship. In addition, the so called world rankings are heavily skewed to favor European skaters, as these rankings give significant weight to what I think is called "senior B" competitions which are mostly in Europe and mostly attended by European skaters. It is prohibitively expensive in most cases for non Europeans to travel to Europe for a "B" competition. Using seaon's best scores gives a much more representative view of who the top skaters are.
    I like the idea of a "direct entry mechanism" but even that is not so clear cut. What about Plushy or Laura who did not compete this season?

    gkelly has suggested a formula based on results /ranking from the last two seasons. Let's say Rachael competes next season but does not do well because she is busy with school.

    Should her past success get her an entry into Worlds? If her previous season's best ISU score would qualify her then should be added if skating poorly the following season?

    gkelly mentions newer skaters who did not compete in the GP or last season's Worlds. There are jr GP's and jr worlds to consider as well as the B competitions.

    I really don't know the best way and as joesitz says it can be disputable who the "best skaters" really are.

    What feels undisputable to me under the current qualifying system is that several of the best skaters in the world are left out.

    I hope that will change in the future.

  13. #58
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    I think you could do something like this.

    In each discipline, the top three in the Grand Prix final get automatic entry into worlds without counting against their country's quota -- provided that country has a second (or third or fourth or fifth) skater besides the Grand Prix winners who qualify by meeting a cutoff on the season''s best list.

    For the 2010-11 season this would have meant that Nagasu would be added to worlds, thanks to Czisny, and Suzuki would be added, thanks to Murakami. (I don't think Italy has a second qualified lady besides Kostner.) Only a miniscule extra expense, practically no extra organizational work, and we pick up two extra skaters who are capable of medaling.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ImaginaryPogue View Post
    PAIRS: 145.3 - the top 23 on the SB list (Marley/Brubaker just miss it)

    Okay, so the changes wreck destruction. Things to wonder

    a) A host nation doesn’t have to pick three spots, of course. France didn’t have any pairs (and would’ve only sent one if the final groupings are to be believed) and only two dance teams at TEB 2010. China only had two ladies. I think we might see hosts using this as a bargaining tool, shunting aside their lesser talents in order to get a bigger name, or use as a promise (aka, one more open slot means that YOUR teams could make the list).
    b) Indeed, the shift towards the ISU here is a clear attempt to limit some politicking. All that means is that what politicking can be done will be more cuthroat
    c) I’m operating on the assumption that after the World ranking top 24, with retirements etc, we’ll jump straight to the use of the Season best list
    d) 48 slots (6 GPS, 8 teams per). 24 slots taken by the top 12 at worlds (presumably the shift upwards will remain the same due to splits and/or retirements), so 24 remain.
    e) There are 23 skaters on the SB that qualify. Of those, four teams have split/retired (Denney/Barrett, Y/C, Della Monica/Kocon and Brodeur/Mattatall). So only 20 teams are eligible for 48 slots. So everyone in the twenty should get two spots. And then there are eight spots left. Assuming the top six does a third competition, you still have two empty slots. ISU... not made of geniuses.

    Host Picks
    Skate America: Evora/Ladwig, Marley/Brubaker, Donlan/Speroff
    Skate Canada: Duhamel/Radford, Moore-Towers/Moscovitch, Lawrence/Swiegers
    Cup of China: Pang/Tong, Dong/Wu, Sui/Han
    NHK: Takahashi/Tran
    TEB: Canac/Bonheur
    Cup of Russia: Volosozhar/Trankov, Barazova/Larionov, Stolbova/Klimov

    TEB and NHK won’t have much in the way of notable pairs, so they become key dealmakers (I definitely see T/T going to Skate America). SC will want another showcase for their top pairs. BUT only three Canadian pairs make the seasons best top 23. Two of those pairs are guaranteed two slots regardless of what happens (both made the top 12 at Worlds). So, if I’m Skate Canada, do I want my three top pairs at SC or do I want to split them and guarantee a fourth (fifth?) pair some more international experience? SC did send D/R to Nebelhorn last season and it was a good start for them. Instead of giving “them” (which could be Hole/Johnson, Jones/Gaskell, or most intriguingly, Dube/Wolfe) a GP slot, why not send them to Nebelhorn to get some more international experience, and maybe get themselves on the list? Truly, if Dube/Wolfe look good (in monitoring), I’d send them to Nebelhorn and hope for that. My hope is that SC doesn’t include Mt/M and chooses a new and/or up-and-coming pair for the third spot, but their status as the reigning National champions

    The only one that really needs explaining is Cup of Russia. Two slots go to seeds, so we’ll talk about that later. It’s the third spot that’s trickiest. They’ve got another three teams that are on the SB list: Iliuschekina/Maisuradze, Stolbova/Klimov, and Gerboldt/Enbert. G/E are coached by Moskovina, so that alone could sway the Russian Federation to invite them again. But I’m thinking that Stolbova/Klimov get it: potential for Sochi (though everyone is potential at this point, the depth is sick). Skilled enough to get people excited. I quite like them, so I hope they get it. I/M in particular don’t seem to have a lot of sway with the federation. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them get only one slot next season. Ideally, you’d be able to give someone not eligible via SB to get a chance (a la Donlan/Speroff) but that’s challenging because a team you expect to get two/one spot(s) may end up with one or none.

    Seeds
    Skate America: Volosozhar/Trankov, Kavaguti/Smirnov
    Skate Canada: Savchenko/Szolkowy, Duhamel/Radford
    Cup of China: Pang/Tong, Bazarova/Larionov
    NHK: Pang/Tong, Kavaguti/Smirnov
    TEB: Savchenko/Szolkowy, Duhamel/Radford
    Cup of Russia: Volosozhar/Trankov, Bazarova/Larionov

    Man, to be in Cup of Russia’s shoes. V/T are no brainers: do we take the exciting, new prospects that look to gather unstoppable momentum as they head into Sochi as perhaps the finest Russian pairs team since M/D? I wonder The second spot, on the other hand, is more difficult to assign. Essentially, either team in the 4-6 group would be guaranteed silver. But who, should V/T be unable to show up, would you want to give Gold to. Giving it to either team is a vote of confidence in the future. The other option, of course, is have all three compete, and use the new rule. A preview of Russian Nationals? I’m gonna predict B/L because they are still the third Russian team (Euros, Nationals and Worlds) AND when you have a possibility of 1-2-3, you go w/ 1-3 and send the two elsewhere (see how China did the pairs during the Olympic season; Canada’s dance teams)

    So, where do the two selected Russian teams go for their second spot. Either Skate America or Skate Canada. TEB is not only too close, S/S are gonna want it. China’s out. Between SA and SC, SA makes more sense: less homegrown competition, and by getting out there first, they really are capable of setting the tone of the season(a chance S/S botched in the Olympic season with their TEB LP). P/T doing CoC and NHK back to back does suck for them a little bit, but minimal travel time should help. S/S get SC and TEB, which works solidly for their schedule.

    As for the second group of seeds (assuming D/R gets bumped up thanks to C/Y retiring), Kavaguti/Smirnov really get the short end of the stick. When you’re fourth, ideally, you compete against the third place team. For K/S, that means P/T. That means lots of travelling, two competitions back-to-back far from their training base. If they avoid P/T, they confront the two titans. So, split the difference. Confront V/T early in the season. Then fire a salvo at P/T (they are capable of beating the latter at their best). They might be able to take advantage of a more tired P/T. B/L get CoC just to avoid two comps back-to-back, and SC is out.

    You’ve gotta think that SC and the Russian federation are hoping P/T sit next season out, though.

    7 Through 12 (including Zhang/Wang, who ranked 13th, get bumped to 12th)
    Skate America: Evora/Ladwig, Takahashi/Tran
    Skate Canada: Moore-Towers/Moscovitch, Zhang/Wang
    Cup of China: Hausch/Wende, Berton/Hotarek
    NHK: Takahashi/Tran, Zhang/Wang
    TEB: Zhang/Wang, Moore-Towers/Moscovitch
    Cup of Russia: Hausch/Wende, Berton/Hotarek

    The logic here is intriguing. Essentially, for any powerhouse country (Russia, China), you don’t care. Your top teams are pretty much untouchable by anyone 7th and below (24 points separate Mt/M from B/L). For the less powerful, you get antsy. The only federation here that’ll be thinking along these lines is going to be Skate Canada. You’d prefer to go as low as possible on the totem pole when getting teams to compete against them. Of the 12 spots available (six skaters, two spots), three are already taken from host picks. So let assume Canada gets what it wants and goes with Zhang/Wang to compete there.

    For the rest, it’s a crapshoot. Assume the Europeans will both target either TEB or CoR. Now, ideally, Skate Canada would send Mt/M elsewhere to garner more experience in front of less friendly judges/ice (their best results came in Canada and the USA), but they won’t.

    Will any pairs take a third spot?
    ..... I think Duhamel/Radford should. Teams 4, 5 and 6/7 (aka, Duhamel/Radford were seventh, but they get sixth/seeded status with the retirement of Y/C) all actually have something to prove: D/R need to demonstrate to SC that they should be the number one Canadian team (two victories over the Canadian National champisons at 4CC and Worlds might not have done it) and B/L and K/S both need to let the Russian Federation that they shouldn’t just crown V/T yet. I said earlier that V/T might, but now I take that back.

    World Ranking top 24 - of those not already selected, at least one per host/discipline

    Okay, so the following teams are ranked in the top 24 and don’t have a spot yet (and are still competing) OR after purging will likely make the top 24: Zhang/Zhang (competing?), Kemp//King, Iliushechkina/Maisuradze, Castelli/Shnapir, Kadlecova/Bidar, Gerboldt/Enbert

    So, first thing to notice: three of the competitors don’t have scores that qualify them otherwise. So, does the ISU continue to use this method? If not, they go directly to SB list and appoint teams. If so, than doesn’t the method of using the season best cut off a little meaningless? But let us assume they disagree and use this method.

    Skate America: Kemp/King
    Skate Canada: Castelli/Shnapir (part of a deal to be discussed in the dance portion)
    Cup of China: Gerboldt/Enbert
    NHK: Iliuschechkina/Maisuradze
    TEB: Kadlecova/Bidar
    Cup of Russia: Zhang/Zhang (big iff)

    Season Best

    Only one team, Simpson/Miller, doesn’t have a spot via season best. So they get NHK (currently has the least number of entrants). EVERY TEAM THAT MEDALLED AT JW OR JGPF HAS A SPOT (except the bronze medal at JGPF, assumption that they won’t graduate to seniors). Twelve already have two slots. So here’s the tally so far.

    Skate America: 7
    Skate Canada: 7
    Cup of China: 7
    NHK: 6
    TEB: 6
    Cup of Russia: 6

    So there are nine slots available. There are seven teams with only one slot on the GP series. So, continuing the assumption parade, ISU gives them all a second slot (I fully expect none of the seeded pairs to take on a third competition)

    Those seven teams: Sui/Han, Iliushechkina/Maisuradze, Lawrence/Sweigers, Gerboldt/Enbert, Castelli/Shanpir, Stolbova/Klimov, Simpson/Miller.

    Skate America: Lawrence/Sweiger
    Skate Canada: Simpson/Miller
    Cup of China: Stolbova/Klimov
    NHK: Sui/Han, Iliushechkina/Maisuradze
    TEB: Gerboldt/Enbert
    Cup of Russia: Castelli/Shnapir

    So only TEB and CoR have empty slots – one each (CoR might get two). If the ISU is respectful of the skaters in general, the way they direct that assignment of teams will privilege the earlier events, such that in the event that a team does get a season best score and becomes eligible for a slot (as everyone eligible gets two spots now) so they have as much time as possible to get everything in order so they can in fact attend the GP they’ve been assigned to. It would also behove the ISU to actually label competitions as ones that scores would count for this assignment. It seems to me that the SB scores are only for ISU competitions (GP, JGP, 4CC, Euros and Worlds) as well as the Olympics. If that’s true (none of the SB have Finlandia/Nebelhorn etc scores in them), that essentially means ONLY the host nations (ie, the nations that are capable of selecting a team regardless of scores) will be able to earn a slot this way.
    you missed zhang/zhang,,they are recovered

  15. #60
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    I really have no idea what to do with Zhang and Zhang. I included them in CoR under the World Ranking portion, with a big if caveat.

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