Ashley Wagner and Caroline Zhang ?

[pangtongfan]

Wagner was never good enough even in her prime. She has never placed top 2 at Nationals even skating her best when the U.S were even weaker than today, and it seems the U.S is perennialy down to 2 spots. This year she wouldnt have placed much or any differently even skating her best, certainly not on the podium. So no hope for her.

Zhang is even below Wagner at this point, so no hope for her either.

But the thing is, hoping won't do it. Someone actually has to beat them.

People in the U.S have always beaten Wagner. Nobody is trying to knock her out of anything since she was never anything in the first place. Regarding Alissa and Flatt you are right.

[PolymerBob]

Zhang is done ...........

........ kicking butt at the California Championship. Yes, that was a small club competition. But remember what the ancient Chinese used to say .......

..... "A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single mule-kick."

[SkateFiguring]

PolymerBob an ancient Chinese?

[R.D.]

No, Zhang is finished. Honestly. Stick a fork in her. She will NOT be a factor next season.

As for Wagner, she's not QUITE done yet but she will be soon if she doesn't take a BIG step forward next season. She is starting to get left behind now especially with Gao and Zawadzki emerging.

[silverlake22]

In the junior ranks, Courtney Hicks may do well in the future. She was 4th in the FS at Jr worlds at her international Junior debut, ahead of Gao in that segment of the competition. Gao has not impressed me this year, but part of the problem is perhaps that she is going through one of those difficult senior/junior transitions. Or she could be way over-hyped. Take your choice.

As to Wagner and Zhang, I wish them luck, but unless they do things very differently next year, they will finish off the podium yet again. Ashley needs to fix her posture and her double footing and occasional underrotation. Zhang still needs so much work on her basics, it is very sad.

Courtney Hicks hasn't hit puberty yet so I'm not so sure she'll be a force. She's good for now but still has a long way to go, and even now she's getting her 3-3 downgraded, and that's with an tiny little girls body, what happens when she grows? I prefer Siraj, Lam, and Kulgeyko to Hicks, but again puberty is still an obstacle.

Gao had a bit of a rough season but I think most of it was due to peaking too early and all the body changes she went through. Next season I think she will do really well, and maybe start beating Agnes. She has the right look to be a World medalist/champ and the jumps to back it up, and she seems really focused, not like Nagasu who seems a little immature and at times irresponsible.

I agree Caroline is done, after one season of having to do regionals and sectionals, she's going to get frustrated and call it quits, I think. Flatt, Wagner, and Czisny are also all on their way out. Alissa's done well for herself this season, but considering how the weak the skating at the ladies event at this year's worlds was, and that Alissa finished only 5th, is sort of writing on the wall. With 2 solid skates she couldn't beat a lackluster Ando and Kim, or a Witt-content Carolina and a nearly clean Leonova. I still think she's one of the top skaters going into next season, but I don't see her winning a medal in Sochi, or in any WCs leading up to it under normal circumstances, and she's not getting any younger.

[pangtongfan]

I think Nagasu, Czisny, Agnes, and maybe Gao are the main skaters to contend for the 2 spots on next years World Team. I would be shocked if any of Flatt, Wagner, let alone Zhang (LOL) make it. By 2014 there could be some new contenders as well, some of the names talked about in this thread.

BTW Zhang not even qualifying for Nationals wouldnt surprise me and I agree she quits soon. It doesnt matter if she fixes her weaknesses and makes them somewhat competent anymore, she doesnt even have any strengths any longer. Her once dazzling spins are quite mediocre based on what I saw of her last season, she no longer hits particularly pretty positions or has the cute factor of any sort, I guess her spirals are still pretty good and that is it. She has nothing now really, even if she does an ok triple flip vs the horror it used to be. And she is slower than ever.

I disagree Czisny is on the way out in the U.S yet as that would imply there are any skaters who can win a medal at Worlds. There arent really, other than maybe the enigmatic Nagasu, and Czisny is the next best bet for now. Gao and Zawadzki both have alot of improvements to make before they can be near a medal at the Senior Worlds. It isnt even certain the U.S will have a strong medal contender by 2014 considering the Russians, Kim, Japanese, and possibly other Europeans.

[silverlake22]

I disagree Czisny is on the way out in the U.S yet as that would imply there are any skaters who can win a medal at Worlds. There arent really, other than maybe the enigmatic Nagasu, and Czisny is the next best bet for now. Gao and Zawadzki both have alot of improvements to make before they can be near a medal at the Senior Worlds. It isnt even certain the U.S will have a strong medal contender by 2014 considering the Russians, Kim, Japanese, and possibly other Europeans.

Regarding Czisny, I meant more by 2014, she'll likely be done/not a medal threat. Next season, I don't think we'll see any US ladies on the Worlds podium, except for maybe Mirai if she steps it up. I agree about Agnes and Christina, but do think that there is a chance they COULD become medal contenders by 2014, maybe even 2013, but next season is probably too soon, especially considering how Kanako fared at Worlds this season when no one really skated well. Maybe one of the younger girls will step it up and come out of nowhere to become a threat by 2014, but again too soon to tell.

[pangtongfan]

I still think Czisny could make the 2014 U.S Olympic team. I agree she wont be a big medal threat (she isnt even now really) but she could make the team. If she is anything more than the #3 U.S lady though it will probably mean the U.S isnt strong contenders.

It is funny to see how even someone like Makarova has sort of passed Murakami when she was so far behind her as juniors. Murakami has some real work to do too. I am not sure how great the Japanese future is looking since Ando will be too old soon (and if she takes a year off I doubt she will come back), Asada looks sort of washed up already, and Murakami is not progressing that well.

[pangtongfan]

I feel sorry for Wagner in anyway. She will be remembered as the girl who was always overshadowed by Flatt, Nagasu, and Zhang. OK she is is well above Zhang the last 2 years but that means nothing when Zhang is way down there now. Zhang's principal achievements in the sport such as her World Junior Gold and two Silvers still easily eclipse anything Wagner has done. There was always alot of expectations around her but she was never quite good enough, and it would be a miracle if she ever attains them now.

[Layfan]

With most of the focus and attention geared towards Alissa, Mirai, Rachael, and the newbies. I started thinking about Ashley and Caroline. Do you think these two have a chance to make the podium at next years nationals and possibly be selected for the national team for the 2012 Worlds ?

Nope.

I've seen the two of them fail to improve and in Caroline's case dramatically deteriorate for too long to hold out much hope.

But neither of them seem to be giving up and so if they prove me wrong I will be thrilled for them!

[silverlake22]

I still think Czisny could make the 2014 U.S Olympic team. I agree she wont be a big medal threat (she isnt even now really) but she could make the team. If she is anything more than the #3 U.S lady though it will probably mean the U.S isnt strong contenders.

It is funny to see how even someone like Makarova has sort of passed Murakami when she was so far behind her as juniors. Murakami has some real work to do too. I am not sure how great the Japanese future is looking since Ando will be too old soon (and if she takes a year off I doubt she will come back), Asada looks sort of washed up already, and Murakami is not progressing that well.

Murakami is still so young though, and she did really well for herself this season except for at NHK (her senior debut and 1st competition of the season) and Worlds (when she was probably burnt out). Japan also has a lot of young promising skaters such as Risa Shoji who has all the triples, 3s-3t, 2a-3t, high PCS, and is very consistent in landing her jumps (though URs are an issue) and is not even 15 yet. Then there is Miyabi Oba who has 3s-3t and 2a-3lo and was great at JW, and she was only 3rd at junior nationals. And then you never know if Nishino or Fujisawa, etc could have a comeback. I'm not too worried about ladies skating in Japan, it's always been strong and I'm sure that will continue to be the case. I will say that I think Suzuki is done though, as Mao and Kanako always seem to beat her even when they don't skate their best.

[Tinymavy15]

I feel sorry for Wagner in anyway. She will be remembered as the girl who was always overshadowed by Flatt, Nagasu, and Zhang. OK she is is well above Zhang the last 2 years but that means nothing when Zhang is way down there now. Zhang's principal achievements in the sport such as her World Junior Gold and two Silvers still easily eclipse anything Wagner has done. There was always alot of expectations around her but she was never quite good enough, and it would be a miracle if she ever attains them now.

yes, it is sad because she really had it all. She was very musical, more so than Racheal i think and often had a lot of speed and power, with nice big jumps and beautiful spins. She just never seems to pull it together at Nationals. and when she does make a mistake, it seems to hurt her more than some of the other girls.

[pangtongfan]

Murakami is still so young though, and she did really well for herself this season except for at NHK (her senior debut and 1st competition of the season) and Worlds (when she was probably burnt out). Japan also has a lot of young promising skaters such as Risa Shoji who has all the triples, 3s-3t, 2a-3t, high PCS, and is very consistent in landing her jumps (though URs are an issue) and is not even 15 yet. Then there is Miyabi Oba who has 3s-3t and 2a-3lo and was great at JW, and she was only 3rd at junior nationals. And then you never know if Nishino or Fujisawa, etc could have a comeback. I'm not too worried about ladies skating in Japan, it's always been strong and I'm sure that will continue to be the case. I will say that I think Suzuki is done though, as Mao and Kanako always seem to beat her even when they don't skate their best.

Suzuki will never be a top skater at the World level so the Japanese really dont have any reason to invest in her. She was a nice underdog story, making the Olympics and having her best ever success in her mid 20s, but that is the end of the story me thinks.

[pangtongfan]

yes, it is sad because she really had it all. She was very musical, more so than Racheal i think and often had a lot of speed and power, with nice big jumps and beautiful spins. She just never seems to pull it together at Nationals. and when she does make a mistake, it seems to hurt her more than some of the other girls.

Yeah for sure. It seems she is either screwed by the judges or she misses something, or something always keeps her down from those others. She is probably one of the unluckiest skaters in recent memory. It is a shame but I cant imagine it happening for her now. I think she is already past her peak a bit, and based on this years Nationals the judges are already forgetting about her.

[Spun Silver]

The mention of Suzuki above, and I might add Abbott as another late bloomer, is reason enough not to write off Ashley just yet.

I'm less hopeful about Caroline because her technical problems seem to be more intractable but also because it doesn't look as though she's in a good place mentally.

I hope they both have productive summers and come back with fight and good programs.