What will the 2011/2012 season bring us in ice dance? | Page 5 | Golden Skate

What will the 2011/2012 season bring us in ice dance?

jcoates

Medalist
Joined
Mar 3, 2006
So did Chait/Sakhnovski (3rd in 2002, 6th in 2003). Surprises tend not to repeat themselves.

This example is a major outlier. First, both of these worlds were competed under versions of the old 6.0 system. So it's not fair to compare how results were reached across systems. Second, the medal for C/S was highly disputed and tainted with rumors of collusion and bribery as well as a protest petition by their fellow competitors. (Please don't let this devolve into yet another thread debating all the politics involved in that incident.) Third, I would argue that it was results like these that helped to shape how COP was applied to ice dance, particularly how definite values were applied to elements for the first time, thus making it harder to fix results.

I understand that you are holding firmly to the larger position that surprise results don't recur, but this is not the best example upon which to base that argument.

I think Virtue/Moir fluked into their World bronze medal. Does that render it illegimate?

If by fluking you mean that their score could have flipped with D/W by a mathematical quirk if different random scores had been selected, then yes that could be called a fluke. But I would still say the result was legitimate because everyone knows that's part of how the system works and they have submitted to being judged under it. The relative closeness of their scores heading into the FD made that a distinct possibility. Still I would not say they fluked into a medal, but their point total relative to D/W was flukey. They skated and earned their score based on how their elements were called. Now if you wanted to argue about the quality of those elements and whether or not they should have been graded lower, then that's another ball of wax and is a question about the judges.

In fairness to them, that was a very odd worlds for dance. The judging all the way around along with some of the skating was wacky. Both D/W and V/M made silly errors in various segments. It's arguable that if Meryl and Charlie had been cleaner in both their CD and OD, there never would have been a controversy due to V/M being on the comeback trail. But you could also argue that if Tessa and Scott had skated a clean OD, their margin would have been large enough to keep them safely clear of being challenged by D/W. Referring to my previous post, it was most definitely one of those events with an unclear winner where the results are debatable. Let's not forget that Isabel and Olivier had established themselves as the clear favorites that season for the title before her shoulder injury. Also, K/N were still contenders coming in and so were F/S based both on their finish as the previous worlds and their results that season. And don't forget about P/B, they were improving as well. The landscape of the sport's hierarchy was shifting that season and a lot of teams were suddenly bunched together and were relatively equal in the eyes of both fans and judges.

At worlds, the CD played a major factor in the final result. IIRC, the French feed for that event called out D/W for "jumping" one of their turns in their paso in each pattern. While the rest of the dance was very good, that error likely contributed to the margin between them and the top three leading into the OD, which itself was a total mess (Have you ever seen so many falls and stumbles in a dance event?). I think the judging that year came down to who made the fewest mistakes, not who was the most excellent at any one segment. Let's face it, we've been spoiled for the last two seasons by the technical brilliance of D/W and V/M across all segments of ice dance. There were glimpses of it before in certain segments, usually the FD. But the reason they are dominant now is because they improved other segments where they were weaker. So now we've come to expect blowouts by the winner or the top two. Back then, there was far less clarity about who was the best. It's hard to blame the judges and certainly not the skaters in a murky circumstance like that.
 
T

Taffy

Guest
Seems like everybody forgot about Khokhlova/Andreev. Meanwhile Zueva gave some great comments about them in Russian press, how individual and beautiful they are, how wonderful it is to work with them and blah-blah. She can't be serious. Seriously.

All of that may be true about working with them, blah blah....

But those kinds of comments will always lack credibility coming from Marina. (Imagine that, Mom thinks her son is wonderful.)

In the case of this team, I really think they need to let Igor do the talking.
 

NorthernDancers

On the Ice
Joined
Jan 15, 2010
Yes, any team could be on podium. All depend how they all will be ready for next season.

This is exactly my point. Thanks to the new world of skate judging, and in line with this being a sport (no skate gods or fairies), it really depends on who skates cleanly with the most difficulty, and most in character with the dance. I do think V/M and D/W will continue to take the top 2 places on the podium in every competition they enter. They are that much better than anyone else, and will continue to improve. They'll keep pushing each other, and with a healthy V/M for maybe the first time in years, and V/M having such great competitive spirits, just imagine what they can do. As for the rest, it is really is open for the taking. I can think of: P/B, F/S, Shibs, W/P, one of Russians (either current I/K, B/S, or some up and coming). And I'm sure there are others who will establish themselves. It really depends who works hard in the off season, improves on their weaknesses, and finds consistency. In the old system, I would have agreed that this year's placements heavily determined next season. Thank goodness it really does depend, on the most part at least, on what happens on the ice at each competition.
 

jcoates

Medalist
Joined
Mar 3, 2006
This is exactly my point. Thanks to the new world of skate judging, and in line with this being a sport (no skate gods or fairies), it really depends on who skates cleanly with the most difficulty, and most in character with the dance. I do think V/M and D/W will continue to take the top 2 places on the podium in every competition they enter. They are that much better than anyone else, and will continue to improve. They'll keep pushing each other, and with a healthy V/M for maybe the first time in years, and V/M having such great competitive spirits, just imagine what they can do. As for the rest, it is really is open for the taking. I can think of: P/B, F/S, Shibs, W/P, one of Russians (either current I/K, B/S, or some up and coming). And I'm sure there are others who will establish themselves. It really depends who works hard in the off season, improves on their weaknesses, and finds consistency. In the old system, I would have agreed that this year's placements heavily determined next season. Thank goodness it really does depend, on the most part at least, on what happens on the ice at each competition.

This is a very fair point. I have only been arguing that just as it is not set in stone that the Shibs will be guaranteed 3rd in the world next year, it's also not set that they will necessarily place lower because their medal was a "fluke". This is based not only on the inherent fairness of the current system, but also on the fact that the Shibs have an advantage over the rest of the top ten, their coaches. Sharing a training base with trainers for the current world and Olympic champs is bound to help them not only hold their placement, but more importantly, to continue their very likely growth as skaters as they mature.
 

ImaginaryPogue

Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 3, 2009
1. The thing is as soon as the Shibs came 4th in the SD, there were accusations of Shpilband/Zoueva politicking heavily for their teams. Novitski, on Russian television, came right out and stated that Shpilband was somehow cheating (something like he receives changes to the rules earlier than everyone else which allows his teams to train better, I believe). Meanwhile, people question the PCS gotten by certain teams as a matter of course. Nothing so extreme as the accusations rendered in 2002, of course, but they still exist.

2. I don't think calling it a fluke delegitamizes the medal at all. One soccer player, when asked about a gorgeous beauty of a goal and was asked if he was lucky, said "the harder I train, the luckier I get." I think that pretty much articulates how I feel here. Especially when the scores are as close as they are.
 

jcoates

Medalist
Joined
Mar 3, 2006
2. I don't think calling it a fluke delegitamizes the medal at all. One soccer player, when asked about a gorgeous beauty of a goal and was asked if he was lucky, said "the harder I train, the luckier I get." I think that pretty much articulates how I feel here. Especially when the scores are as close as they are.

I think calling their placement a fluke delegitimizes their medal when that label is directly tied to strong declarations that their placements at worlds will certainly be lower in future seasons based on their age, the current or past status of their competitors and past results for other teams under scoring systems which are no longer in use. None of that is relevant to what happened on the ice in Moscow. That particular series of events is all that really matters. Everything else is extraneous, speculative and academic.

Regarding politcking, the only real area where those accusations can be levied for any team/coaches is at PCS scores and GOE. Base values are very hard to fudge. Frankly much of this apparent backlash towards the Shibs seems to be about PCS rather than TES or GOE. (BTW, IP please don't take any of my posts as being directed at you personally. I am writing on this thread largely to respond to a general trend about how the Shibs's result is being perceived. I usually find your posts to be thought-provoking if not delightful. :) ) The backlash seems to center around the persistent belief, which dates back to 6.0 scoring, that ice dancers must present one very narrow image. They must be a representation of a fully physically and emotionally mature adult romantic couple first and excellent technicians second. In other words, their artistic merit (to use an out of date term) can only be derived from their ability to emote and "act" the part. (This is true both among fans and other skaters and coaches.) What some seem to be resisting is twofold. First, that PCS is largely not about those things at all. Most of the sub-categories are tied to technical details. The others judge the quality of the dance relative to its intended theme. There is no measurement for heat, romance, maturity, etc. While the early days of COP did not see this standard applied very consistently, the last couple of seasons have offered much greater clarity. If there is displeasure directed at the Shibs from some quarters, I suspect it's in favor of either P/B or W/P because they reflect a lot of these classic or old-school qualities of presentation with which many skating fans are more comfortable. Still, PCS seems to derive more from technique than not. Second, as my first post on this thread indicates, there is another approach which can be taken to crafting presentation, lighthearted whimsy and humor. Sadly, it's one which the Shibs seem to be the only practitioners of at it the moment. The Kerrs ventured down that road on occasion, but they much preferred the avant garde to the whimsical. Therefore, I would wager that because the brand of Skating Marina has hit upon for Maia and Alex is less familiar to skating fans today, it will take time to be accepted.
 
Last edited:

colleen o'neill

Medalist
Joined
Nov 3, 2006
I'm just loving this thread . So many interesting points are being made. And I'm looking forward to doris finishing chewing on how she thinks the various rule changes will affect the skaters.

From my limited-in-technical-expertise viewpoint, with the plethora of talentad skaters all vying for a limited number of assignments, medals , high placements.. choreography and presentation ( always important IMO ) could be absolutely vital to success in the upcoming season. I'm just taking it as a given that all the couples will be working to improve or refine their technique. We all know that injury or unexpected slips can always throw a monkey wrench in the works ,and we hope that they won't play too prominent a part. So setting those things aside , I've been trying to wrap my head around what to expect , to hope for and the likelihood of seeing it.

I agree that D/W and V/M will still be in a class by themselves ...and their programs and presentation are always standouts anyway , so I'm setting them aside as well. Now we get down to the nitty gritty...

The two teams that stood out the most for me this year ,in regard to a well thought out, cohesive presentation, were P/B and the Shibs , so their finish was all the more..I don't know what..poignant ?..ironic ?.. to me.

P/B had two character pieces , both well choreographed and different from each other. Both used very familiar music and themes. But they were set apart from the many times we'd seen the themes and music used in the past by their costuming.The cut and design of each set of costumes was very true to the different eras and characters they portrayed, yet the two programs were tied together by the very effective use of a vibrant red in both..that demanded attention and sparked recognition.

The Shibs made the same sort of statement in a different way, but to no less effect. They , too , used familiar music but their programs were pure dance , as opposed to character pieces. The unifying effect was the cut of her dress.. recognizably similar, though executed in different colours for each program , with just the right amount of sparkle. In the FD ,anyone who'd seen the SD knew who they were the instant they took the ice.The simple bodice showed off her clean, delicate lines, while the skirt just flowed and floated like a dream. Both colours were lovely on her, and the simplicty of the costume really let you focus on the beauty of their skating.

Now I have to go to the grocery store :disapp:..i'll come back with the rest.
 
Last edited:

dorispulaski

Wicked Yankee Girl
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
Country
United-States
The Shibs embody one old-school quality that is still part of COP--really, really great timing. You have to see them to believe them. Also, they have an effortless speed that does not show up well on TV, because they are not working at it. Check how blurred the signs appear though, and you'll appreciate it even on TV. D&W are significantly faster, and V&M too, but pretty much no one else is significantly faster than they are. Thus they avoid the "junior skater" label. Considering they combine that speed with the ability to score Level 4's, and they have a recipe for high scores.

I expect their speed to be better this year, for that matter.

I wouldn't be shocked, if they skate clean, if they are 3rd or 4th again this year.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
So did Chait/Sakhnovski (3rd in 2002, 6th in 2003). Surprises tend not to repeat themselves.

C/S were an awful team who belonged nowhere near that podium though. And their fellow competitors who had probably been quietly in rage about their politically based rise well before those Worlds all but rioted to unheard of levels for figure skating with their almost unanimously signed protest that they did not deserve their medal at those Worlds. They were a unique case. Ironically by 2005 and 2006 they were far better than 2002 and could barely make top 10 with nearly everyone from the past era retired.
 

ImaginaryPogue

Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 3, 2009
I think we can go examine every situation and find out it was more complicated than how it's portrayed.

2002: Chait/Sakhnovski were politicked onto the podium, leading to the petition (spearheaded by Albena Denkova), accusations of payouts that bordered on anti-semitism, and a general backlash.

2008: Khoklova/Novitski. They benefited from retirements, withdraws and a fall from a top team. They barely made the podium (beating Belbin/Agosto by.... 0.26) despite accusations that they were overmarked as well.

Now, I can point out the differences. The Shibs are gonna likely get better. S/Z know COP better than any other choreographer/team. However, IF there is a backlash against S/Z, the Shibs are gonna be the ones hit first
 

janetfan

Match Penalty
Joined
May 15, 2009
They're father back from V/M and D/W. It's like the old adage - if you and someone else are hiking and see a bear, just make sure you can outrun the other guy. Right now, V/M and D/W can outrun the Shibs.

Usually in SPORT an older, crippled team take the hit, no?
In Sochi the Shibs will mostl likeley be skating circles around V/M.

That's if V/M are even still competing based on all of their injury problems.

Usually coaches are not stupid about who to throw under the bus.
 
Last edited:

ImaginaryPogue

Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 3, 2009
Love how happy you sound about V/M's injury problems.

It's not just about who to throw under a bus, though. It could be rule changes that hurt the Z/S teams to the benefit of other teams (an analogy would be the changes made last season that hurt Kim more than other top skaters, or to what happend to Shen/Zhao in the run-up to Torino). It could be closer scrutiny of their PCS (we saw that happen to K/N after Euros 2009)

Insert insult about paranoia here
 

gmyers

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 6, 2010
I didn't want to bring in pre COP events. So I just mentioned the two times a team medaled and then fell off the podium at worlds under COP.

I don't see the collapse of the tech of S/S or any other team being better than them in tech next season that were below them this season. Judges really can control things with PCS and even there they were at 48! P/B was only 51 with VM and DW at 56/57. It is much more likely S/S will be a stronger third next season not a weaker 6th. Why would they get so bad? Who would get so much better? If DM or VM retire than S/S would be second. That is looking at talent and how they are being recieved already. 4th in the SD is all you really need to know. Why would they be lower than that next season?
 

janetfan

Match Penalty
Joined
May 15, 2009
Love how happy you sound about V/M's injury problems.

I happen to love Tessa and Scott. If I mention their injury/health situation it is because GS is not Disneyland. Your comment directed at me is petty and untrue as I have always been a V/M fan and prefer them stylistically over D/W.

Three years from now I see the Shibs as a top contender in Sochi.

Who knows, you might even be their fan by then :)

But since they are not Canadians we all know that will never happen. :sheesh:
 
Last edited:

colleen o'neill

Medalist
Joined
Nov 3, 2006
Hernando... maybe you weren't checking in here so much then, but Pogue was one of the Canadians ( avec moi and a number of others) saying the Shibs were wonderful and could easily surprise at World's since early in the GP. It's just that no one predicted P/B would have their mishap and judging by their results, they seemed destined for third all through the season.

Also, just speaking for myself, I really thought B/S ( who are really very good underneath their crying need for top-notch choreography )might have been recieved a bit better than they were ,especially considering World's eventual location.
****
I haven't noticed a lot of wuz-robbing on behalf of W/P, though I guess there has been some. but to clarify my own position..I'm thrilled for the Shibs ( and do not rule out the possibility of their holding on to 3rd.)and thrilled for W/P. They set top 5 as their goal , which was pooh-poohed by many. After having been treated as decided also-rans for 2 yrs. (although National results were very close ) ,they achieved their goal , and many felt they could have been undermarked in the SD. Even though it wouldn't have made a difference to their placement , it has to be very encouraging to know they're very close to being able to challenge for a medal.
 
Last edited:

bekalc

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 1, 2006
I didn't want to bring in pre COP events. So I just mentioned the two times a team medaled and then fell off the podium at worlds under COP.

I don't see the collapse of the tech of S/S or any other team being better than them in tech next season that were below them this season. Judges really can control things with PCS and even there they were at 48! P/B was only 51 with VM and DW at 56/57. It is much more likely S/S will be a stronger third next season not a weaker 6th. Why would they get so bad? Who would get so much better? If DM or VM retire than S/S would be second. That is looking at talent and how they are being recieved already. 4th in the SD is all you really need to know. Why would they be lower than that next season?

Because other teams could improve. For example a year ago the young Russians, I/K were beating S/S pretty soundly. Then S/S improved and I/K stagnated. But now with I/k working with new coaches etc, that could change again by next year. I kind of feel like the Shibs are a bit limited artistically.

I can see W/B overtaking the Shibs too. And I think P/B ARE the better team, and maybe with new coaching they will improve.
 

NorthernDancers

On the Ice
Joined
Jan 15, 2010
Usually in SPORT an older, crippled team take the hit, no?
In Sochi the Shibs will mostl likeley be skating circles around V/M.

That's if V/M are even still competing based on all of their injury problems.

Usually coaches are not stupid about who to throw under the bus.


This is really funny. Older, crippled team? I don't think V/M are ready for the rocking chair quite yet. By any measure, they are still really young, and will still be young in Sochi. Same with D/W. In SPORT, sometimes athletes have injuries, even major ones, and then get those injuries fixed properly, and then return better than they ever were before. If V/M are now healthy, and can train properly for the first time in a number of years, then perhaps we will see some very amazing things. V looked really healthy and powerful at Worlds, and I can't wait to see what a full season with proper training can do for them. It's exciting.

Sorry, but maturity does make a difference in ice dance, much more so than any other skating discipline. When I look at how a young team skates a Latin dance vs a more mature team, there is a difference. The young team can be great technically, but will most often miss the key chemistry and flavour of the dance. And this is where the Shibs just need some more time and development. I think of the CD's from a couple of years ago. DelShoe's had simply spectacular flow and beauty and accuracy and flavour and quality of steps in their CD. The young guns were not quite up to that amazingness, not even V/M who placed 2nd overall.

I don't see Z/S ever throwing any teams under the bus. In fact, I think they do a fabulous job of working with each individual team's strengths and style. I can't imagine this would change in the future.

I think Shibs will continue to grow and improve and get better. I remember seeing them a few years ago in competition. They were really tiny then, but really wonderful. He is a very, very good partner with exceptional skills. She has a smile that lights up the whole arena. They have amazing unison and very tidy feet. They benefit from having skated together for many years. I think they will definitely factor in the mix in the race for the top.
 
Top