Who knows... When V-M won there first medal at WCh in 2008 a lot off poeple said - this will be there last medal at WCh
Originally Posted by blue_idealist
So all will depend from how Shibutanies will be ready, who will retier and will P-B have two clean skating at WCh.
V/M won their medal in 2008 by winning the FD,scoring a 105 something.D/S weren't there but still it was a big mark.It's a totally different situation.Of course their next Worlds weren't as good with the surgery and everything and they even lost the FD for the 3rd place to D/W.They came back to win the Olympics allthough they lost the GPF and this season they lost again at Worlds.So nobody really knows what is going to happen next year.I wouldn't consider P/B a lock for the 3rd place Nice or not.I did the mistake to consider them a lock this season but the Skate Gods are not kidding
The way I see it, ice dancing tends to become the most unpredictable discpline (irony?) and teams would consider themselves very lucky to be on the podium in Euros or Worlds.
Yes, any team could be on podium. All depend how they all will be ready for next season.
So did Chait/Sakhnovski (3rd in 2002, 6th in 2003). Surprises tend not to repeat themselves.
Krylova/Fedorov in 1993 as well.Next season they even had to change their rock n roll FD and go back to their Cha Cha but they still didn't climb up the rankings.
Of course there is Klimova/Ponomarenko that went on to win more medals, but I'd consider them a very special case.
This example is a major outlier. First, both of these worlds were competed under versions of the old 6.0 system. So it's not fair to compare how results were reached across systems. Second, the medal for C/S was highly disputed and tainted with rumors of collusion and bribery as well as a protest petition by their fellow competitors. (Please don't let this devolve into yet another thread debating all the politics involved in that incident.) Third, I would argue that it was results like these that helped to shape how COP was applied to ice dance, particularly how definite values were applied to elements for the first time, thus making it harder to fix results.
Originally Posted by ImaginaryPogue
I understand that you are holding firmly to the larger position that surprise results don't recur, but this is not the best example upon which to base that argument.
If by fluking you mean that their score could have flipped with D/W by a mathematical quirk if different random scores had been selected, then yes that could be called a fluke. But I would still say the result was legitimate because everyone knows that's part of how the system works and they have submitted to being judged under it. The relative closeness of their scores heading into the FD made that a distinct possibility. Still I would not say they fluked into a medal, but their point total relative to D/W was flukey. They skated and earned their score based on how their elements were called. Now if you wanted to argue about the quality of those elements and whether or not they should have been graded lower, then that's another ball of wax and is a question about the judges.
Originally Posted by ImaginaryPogue
In fairness to them, that was a very odd worlds for dance. The judging all the way around along with some of the skating was wacky. Both D/W and V/M made silly errors in various segments. It's arguable that if Meryl and Charlie had been cleaner in both their CD and OD, there never would have been a controversy due to V/M being on the comeback trail. But you could also argue that if Tessa and Scott had skated a clean OD, their margin would have been large enough to keep them safely clear of being challenged by D/W. Referring to my previous post, it was most definitely one of those events with an unclear winner where the results are debatable. Let's not forget that Isabel and Olivier had established themselves as the clear favorites that season for the title before her shoulder injury. Also, K/N were still contenders coming in and so were F/S based both on their finish as the previous worlds and their results that season. And don't forget about P/B, they were improving as well. The landscape of the sport's hierarchy was shifting that season and a lot of teams were suddenly bunched together and were relatively equal in the eyes of both fans and judges.
At worlds, the CD played a major factor in the final result. IIRC, the French feed for that event called out D/W for "jumping" one of their turns in their paso in each pattern. While the rest of the dance was very good, that error likely contributed to the margin between them and the top three leading into the OD, which itself was a total mess (Have you ever seen so many falls and stumbles in a dance event?). I think the judging that year came down to who made the fewest mistakes, not who was the most excellent at any one segment. Let's face it, we've been spoiled for the last two seasons by the technical brilliance of D/W and V/M across all segments of ice dance. There were glimpses of it before in certain segments, usually the FD. But the reason they are dominant now is because they improved other segments where they were weaker. So now we've come to expect blowouts by the winner or the top two. Back then, there was far less clarity about who was the best. It's hard to blame the judges and certainly not the skaters in a murky circumstance like that.
All of that may be true about working with them, blah blah....
Originally Posted by let`s talk
But those kinds of comments will always lack credibility coming from Marina. (Imagine that, Mom thinks her son is wonderful.)
In the case of this team, I really think they need to let Igor do the talking.
This is exactly my point. Thanks to the new world of skate judging, and in line with this being a sport (no skate gods or fairies), it really depends on who skates cleanly with the most difficulty, and most in character with the dance. I do think V/M and D/W will continue to take the top 2 places on the podium in every competition they enter. They are that much better than anyone else, and will continue to improve. They'll keep pushing each other, and with a healthy V/M for maybe the first time in years, and V/M having such great competitive spirits, just imagine what they can do. As for the rest, it is really is open for the taking. I can think of: P/B, F/S, Shibs, W/P, one of Russians (either current I/K, B/S, or some up and coming). And I'm sure there are others who will establish themselves. It really depends who works hard in the off season, improves on their weaknesses, and finds consistency. In the old system, I would have agreed that this year's placements heavily determined next season. Thank goodness it really does depend, on the most part at least, on what happens on the ice at each competition.
Originally Posted by npa
This is a very fair point. I have only been arguing that just as it is not set in stone that the Shibs will be guaranteed 3rd in the world next year, it's also not set that they will necessarily place lower because their medal was a "fluke". This is based not only on the inherent fairness of the current system, but also on the fact that the Shibs have an advantage over the rest of the top ten, their coaches. Sharing a training base with trainers for the current world and Olympic champs is bound to help them not only hold their placement, but more importantly, to continue their very likely growth as skaters as they mature.
Originally Posted by NorthernDancers
1. The thing is as soon as the Shibs came 4th in the SD, there were accusations of Shpilband/Zoueva politicking heavily for their teams. Novitski, on Russian television, came right out and stated that Shpilband was somehow cheating (something like he receives changes to the rules earlier than everyone else which allows his teams to train better, I believe). Meanwhile, people question the PCS gotten by certain teams as a matter of course. Nothing so extreme as the accusations rendered in 2002, of course, but they still exist.
2. I don't think calling it a fluke delegitamizes the medal at all. One soccer player, when asked about a gorgeous beauty of a goal and was asked if he was lucky, said "the harder I train, the luckier I get." I think that pretty much articulates how I feel here. Especially when the scores are as close as they are.
No, it makes it the same as the bronze the Shibs won, but without all of the Canadian paranoia
Originally Posted by ImaginaryPogue
I think calling their placement a fluke delegitimizes their medal when that label is directly tied to strong declarations that their placements at worlds will certainly be lower in future seasons based on their age, the current or past status of their competitors and past results for other teams under scoring systems which are no longer in use. None of that is relevant to what happened on the ice in Moscow. That particular series of events is all that really matters. Everything else is extraneous, speculative and academic.
Originally Posted by ImaginaryPogue
Regarding politcking, the only real area where those accusations can be levied for any team/coaches is at PCS scores and GOE. Base values are very hard to fudge. Frankly much of this apparent backlash towards the Shibs seems to be about PCS rather than TES or GOE. (BTW, IP please don't take any of my posts as being directed at you personally. I am writing on this thread largely to respond to a general trend about how the Shibs's result is being perceived. I usually find your posts to be thought-provoking if not delightful. ) The backlash seems to center around the persistent belief, which dates back to 6.0 scoring, that ice dancers must present one very narrow image. They must be a representation of a fully physically and emotionally mature adult romantic couple first and excellent technicians second. In other words, their artistic merit (to use an out of date term) can only be derived from their ability to emote and "act" the part. (This is true both among fans and other skaters and coaches.) What some seem to be resisting is twofold. First, that PCS is largely not about those things at all. Most of the sub-categories are tied to technical details. The others judge the quality of the dance relative to its intended theme. There is no measurement for heat, romance, maturity, etc. While the early days of COP did not see this standard applied very consistently, the last couple of seasons have offered much greater clarity. If there is displeasure directed at the Shibs from some quarters, I suspect it's in favor of either P/B or W/P because they reflect a lot of these classic or old-school qualities of presentation with which many skating fans are more comfortable. Still, PCS seems to derive more from technique than not. Second, as my first post on this thread indicates, there is another approach which can be taken to crafting presentation, lighthearted whimsy and humor. Sadly, it's one which the Shibs seem to be the only practitioners of at it the moment. The Kerrs ventured down that road on occasion, but they much preferred the avant garde to the whimsical. Therefore, I would wager that because the brand of Skating Marina has hit upon for Maia and Alex is less familiar to skating fans today, it will take time to be accepted.
Last edited by jcoates; 05-29-2011 at 06:28 PM.
Constable , Costume Police
I'm just loving this thread . So many interesting points are being made. And I'm looking forward to doris finishing chewing on how she thinks the various rule changes will affect the skaters.
From my limited-in-technical-expertise viewpoint, with the plethora of talentad skaters all vying for a limited number of assignments, medals , high placements.. choreography and presentation ( always important IMO ) could be absolutely vital to success in the upcoming season. I'm just taking it as a given that all the couples will be working to improve or refine their technique. We all know that injury or unexpected slips can always throw a monkey wrench in the works ,and we hope that they won't play too prominent a part. So setting those things aside , I've been trying to wrap my head around what to expect , to hope for and the likelihood of seeing it.
I agree that D/W and V/M will still be in a class by themselves ...and their programs and presentation are always standouts anyway , so I'm setting them aside as well. Now we get down to the nitty gritty...
The two teams that stood out the most for me this year ,in regard to a well thought out, cohesive presentation, were P/B and the Shibs , so their finish was all the more..I don't know what..poignant ?..ironic ?.. to me.
P/B had two character pieces , both well choreographed and different from each other. Both used very familiar music and themes. But they were set apart from the many times we'd seen the themes and music used in the past by their costuming.The cut and design of each set of costumes was very true to the different eras and characters they portrayed, yet the two programs were tied together by the very effective use of a vibrant red in both..that demanded attention and sparked recognition.
The Shibs made the same sort of statement in a different way, but to no less effect. They , too , used familiar music but their programs were pure dance , as opposed to character pieces. The unifying effect was the cut of her dress.. recognizably similar, though executed in different colours for each program , with just the right amount of sparkle. In the FD ,anyone who'd seen the SD knew who they were the instant they took the ice.The simple bodice showed off her clean, delicate lines, while the skirt just flowed and floated like a dream. Both colours were lovely on her, and the simplicty of the costume really let you focus on the beauty of their skating.
Now I have to go to the grocery store ..i'll come back with the rest.
Last edited by colleen o'neill; 05-29-2011 at 05:53 PM.
Wicked Yankee Girl
The Shibs embody one old-school quality that is still part of COP--really, really great timing. You have to see them to believe them. Also, they have an effortless speed that does not show up well on TV, because they are not working at it. Check how blurred the signs appear though, and you'll appreciate it even on TV. D&W are significantly faster, and V&M too, but pretty much no one else is significantly faster than they are. Thus they avoid the "junior skater" label. Considering they combine that speed with the ability to score Level 4's, and they have a recipe for high scores.
I expect their speed to be better this year, for that matter.
I wouldn't be shocked, if they skate clean, if they are 3rd or 4th again this year.
C/S were an awful team who belonged nowhere near that podium though. And their fellow competitors who had probably been quietly in rage about their politically based rise well before those Worlds all but rioted to unheard of levels for figure skating with their almost unanimously signed protest that they did not deserve their medal at those Worlds. They were a unique case. Ironically by 2005 and 2006 they were far better than 2002 and could barely make top 10 with nearly everyone from the past era retired.
Originally Posted by ImaginaryPogue