What will the 2011/2012 season bring us in ice dance?

[ImaginaryPogue]

I think we can go examine every situation and find out it was more complicated than how it's portrayed.

2002: Chait/Sakhnovski were politicked onto the podium, leading to the petition (spearheaded by Albena Denkova), accusations of payouts that bordered on anti-semitism, and a general backlash.

2008: Khoklova/Novitski. They benefited from retirements, withdraws and a fall from a top team. They barely made the podium (beating Belbin/Agosto by.... 0.26) despite accusations that they were overmarked as well.

Now, I can point out the differences. The Shibs are gonna likely get better. S/Z know COP better than any other choreographer/team. However, IF there is a backlash against S/Z, the Shibs are gonna be the ones hit first

[janetfan]

[QUOTE=ImaginaryPogue;571331. However, IF there is a backlash against S/Z, the Shibs are gonna be the ones hit first[/QUOTE]

How so?

[ImaginaryPogue]

How so?

They're father back from V/M and D/W. It's like the old adage - if you and someone else are hiking and see a bear, just make sure you can outrun the other guy. Right now, V/M and D/W can outrun the Shibs.

[janetfan]

They're father back from V/M and D/W. It's like the old adage - if you and someone else are hiking and see a bear, just make sure you can outrun the other guy. Right now, V/M and D/W can outrun the Shibs.

Usually in SPORT an older, crippled team take the hit, no?
In Sochi the Shibs will mostl likeley be skating circles around V/M.

That's if V/M are even still competing based on all of their injury problems.

Usually coaches are not stupid about who to throw under the bus.

[ImaginaryPogue]

Love how happy you sound about V/M's injury problems.

It's not just about who to throw under a bus, though. It could be rule changes that hurt the Z/S teams to the benefit of other teams (an analogy would be the changes made last season that hurt Kim more than other top skaters, or to what happend to Shen/Zhao in the run-up to Torino). It could be closer scrutiny of their PCS (we saw that happen to K/N after Euros 2009)

Insert insult about paranoia here

[gmyers]

I didn't want to bring in pre COP events. So I just mentioned the two times a team medaled and then fell off the podium at worlds under COP.

I don't see the collapse of the tech of S/S or any other team being better than them in tech next season that were below them this season. Judges really can control things with PCS and even there they were at 48! P/B was only 51 with VM and DW at 56/57. It is much more likely S/S will be a stronger third next season not a weaker 6th. Why would they get so bad? Who would get so much better? If DM or VM retire than S/S would be second. That is looking at talent and how they are being recieved already. 4th in the SD is all you really need to know. Why would they be lower than that next season?

[janetfan]

Love how happy you sound about V/M's injury problems.

I happen to love Tessa and Scott. If I mention their injury/health situation it is because GS is not Disneyland. Your comment directed at me is petty and untrue as I have always been a V/M fan and prefer them stylistically over D/W.

Three years from now I see the Shibs as a top contender in Sochi.

Who knows, you might even be their fan by then

But since they are not Canadians we all know that will never happen. :sheesh:

[colleen o'neill]

Hernando... maybe you weren't checking in here so much then, but Pogue was one of the Canadians ( avec moi and a number of others) saying the Shibs were wonderful and could easily surprise at World's since early in the GP. It's just that no one predicted P/B would have their mishap and judging by their results, they seemed destined for third all through the season.

Also, just speaking for myself, I really thought B/S ( who are really very good underneath their crying need for top-notch choreography )might have been recieved a bit better than they were ,especially considering World's eventual location.
****
I haven't noticed a lot of wuz-robbing on behalf of W/P, though I guess there has been some. but to clarify my own position..I'm thrilled for the Shibs ( and do not rule out the possibility of their holding on to 3rd.)and thrilled for W/P. They set top 5 as their goal , which was pooh-poohed by many. After having been treated as decided also-rans for 2 yrs. (although National results were very close ) ,they achieved their goal , and many felt they could have been undermarked in the SD. Even though it wouldn't have made a difference to their placement , it has to be very encouraging to know they're very close to being able to challenge for a medal.

[bekalc]

I didn't want to bring in pre COP events. So I just mentioned the two times a team medaled and then fell off the podium at worlds under COP.

I don't see the collapse of the tech of S/S or any other team being better than them in tech next season that were below them this season. Judges really can control things with PCS and even there they were at 48! P/B was only 51 with VM and DW at 56/57. It is much more likely S/S will be a stronger third next season not a weaker 6th. Why would they get so bad? Who would get so much better? If DM or VM retire than S/S would be second. That is looking at talent and how they are being recieved already. 4th in the SD is all you really need to know. Why would they be lower than that next season?

Because other teams could improve. For example a year ago the young Russians, I/K were beating S/S pretty soundly. Then S/S improved and I/K stagnated. But now with I/k working with new coaches etc, that could change again by next year. I kind of feel like the Shibs are a bit limited artistically.

I can see W/B overtaking the Shibs too. And I think P/B ARE the better team, and maybe with new coaching they will improve.

[NorthernDancers]

Usually in SPORT an older, crippled team take the hit, no?
In Sochi the Shibs will mostl likeley be skating circles around V/M.

That's if V/M are even still competing based on all of their injury problems.

Usually coaches are not stupid about who to throw under the bus.

This is really funny. Older, crippled team? I don't think V/M are ready for the rocking chair quite yet. By any measure, they are still really young, and will still be young in Sochi. Same with D/W. In SPORT, sometimes athletes have injuries, even major ones, and then get those injuries fixed properly, and then return better than they ever were before. If V/M are now healthy, and can train properly for the first time in a number of years, then perhaps we will see some very amazing things. V looked really healthy and powerful at Worlds, and I can't wait to see what a full season with proper training can do for them. It's exciting.

Sorry, but maturity does make a difference in ice dance, much more so than any other skating discipline. When I look at how a young team skates a Latin dance vs a more mature team, there is a difference. The young team can be great technically, but will most often miss the key chemistry and flavour of the dance. And this is where the Shibs just need some more time and development. I think of the CD's from a couple of years ago. DelShoe's had simply spectacular flow and beauty and accuracy and flavour and quality of steps in their CD. The young guns were not quite up to that amazingness, not even V/M who placed 2nd overall.

I don't see Z/S ever throwing any teams under the bus. In fact, I think they do a fabulous job of working with each individual team's strengths and style. I can't imagine this would change in the future.

I think Shibs will continue to grow and improve and get better. I remember seeing them a few years ago in competition. They were really tiny then, but really wonderful. He is a very, very good partner with exceptional skills. She has a smile that lights up the whole arena. They have amazing unison and very tidy feet. They benefit from having skated together for many years. I think they will definitely factor in the mix in the race for the top.

[lcd]

So many of the points I have been thinking have been so well said already by JCoates.

The use of the words "fluke" and "backlash" with regard to the Shibutanis seems simply insulting. Implied is the notion that they somehow did something "weird" or "inappropriate" to place 3rd at a major championship.

The Shibutanis came up with really smart programs. They were ready to compete at every competition and showed improvement throughout the season. They delivered when it counted. They did not fall. They did not make anyone else fall. They did not make anyone else make mistakes which cost crucial points.

They faced some huge pressure skating at their first world championship in front of an audience that I cannot imagine was supporting them to any genuinely helpful extent given who else was in the running for medals. To handle themselves the way that they did has to be a huge confidence boost.

As a teacher for talented-gifted students, I come in contact with kids Maia's age (16) just about every day and I can tell you that I am profoundly impressed by her poise both on and off the ice. Both she and Alex strike me as so much more mature than their years. They seem plenty astute as athletes and competitors, and have surrounded themselves with the kind of people who make more smart decisions than "dumb" ones.

Having been a fan of figure skating for over 4 decades, I for one am thrilled to see ice dance go through the evolution it has over the past decade with its emphasis on blending "dance" with athleticism, occassional flashes of recognition for diversity in its various forms, and competition results which give some hint that it is actually a sport as well.

Backlash seems the kind of phrase warranted when athletes show cringe-worthy immaturity, show a lack of sportsmanship by publicly bad-mouthing others, or revelations are uncovered proving manipulation of results. Just my opinion, but "fluke" and "backlash" both seem like words, even if just carelessly used, which suggest resentment over things that the Shibs didn't anything to deserve.

[100yen]

Because other teams could improve. For example a year ago the young Russians, I/K were beating S/S pretty soundly. Then S/S improved and I/K stagnated. But now with I/k working with new coaches etc, that could change again by next year. I kind of feel like the Shibs are a bit limited artistically.

I can see W/B overtaking the Shibs too. And I think P/B ARE the better team, and maybe with new coaching they will improve.

You don't think S/S are going to improve along with the other teams? Even last year with what many consider to be their worst programs, they still improved technically and improved their their twizzle sequence. As previously mentioned by others, I/K's "flaws" were generally excused on the junior circuit (as with a lot of junior teams by the nature of the level), where judges this year are starting to crack down. Yes, it's likely they will improve, but in my opinion they have a much bigger job catching up to Maia and Alex than Maia and Alex had catching up to them last year. I/K need to rework quite a bit of their basic skills to gain the flow of the top teams.

[janetfan]

"The chemistry between them is contagious."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VDkJ0...feature=relmfu

I really like the special connection the Shibs have on the ice and watching them skate makes me want to skate too.

Despite being so young they medaled at both of their GP's, at Natls, 4CC and Worlds.

Even their critics have to recognize their consistency but I like them simply because they are so enjoyable to watch.

[ImaginaryPogue]

So many of the points I have been thinking have been so well said already by JCoates.

The use of the words "fluke" and "backlash" with regard to the Shibutanis seems simply insulting. Implied is the notion that they somehow did something "weird" or "inappropriate" to place 3rd at a major championship.

........

Backlash seems the kind of phrase warranted when athletes show cringe-worthy immaturity, show a lack of sportsmanship by publicly bad-mouthing others, or revelations are uncovered proving manipulation of results. Just my opinion, but "fluke" and "backlash" both seem like words, even if just carelessly used, which suggest resentment over things that the Shibs didn't anything to deserve.

I understand, and given that I used the word backlash, I feel like I should explain.

If you go to other boards, there is a lot of resentment directed at the COPification of the sport, and you see that here too. But, while there are skaters/performances who are strongly related to that (Carolina Kostner Worlds 2008, Patrick Chan SC/CoR 2010) there are no coaches really associated with that. Except in ice dance, with Zoueva/Shpilband leading the way. Did you know that since the introduction of COP, they haven't had a team miss the podium at Worlds (B/A: 2005-2007, V/M: 2008-2011, D/W: 2010-2011)? So if you don't like the shift that took place, you don't like Z/S, plain and simple. This year, they had two medal sweeps: US Nationals and Worlds. They could've added a third if V/M stayed at 4CC. I myself grow cautious at the idea of one dance school so thoroughly dominating the scene. If there is resentment (and I would ask that we separate resentment from surprise: I don't resent the fact that the Shibs beat B/S, W/P or P/B. I was surprised by that, though), it'll be the consequence of these two factors.

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As of next season, the top five teams with be dominated by two coaching schools both operating out of Michigan. Z/S of course, but Krylova/Camerlengo have W/P and P/B. The 7th and 8th place teams with be coached by Morosov and his team. So with 8 of the top ten teams centred on three schools (C/Z with Z/S as well, at the moment), it'll be interesting to see how things play out next year. I'm most curious about C/L and the unretired F/S. Presumably the latter is stating with Linichuk? Or are they going to work with Krylova/Camerlengo (remember, he was to join their coaching team)? According to wikipedia, it's the latter (which is awesome), and should be fascinating. I suspect that C/L will be dumped a little next season, which is ashame.

[bekalc]

You don't think S/S are going to improve along with the other teams? Even last year with what many consider to be their worst programs, they still improved technically and improved their their twizzle sequence. As previously mentioned by others, I/K's "flaws" were generally excused on the junior circuit (as with a lot of junior teams by the nature of the level), where judges this year are starting to crack down. Yes, it's likely they will improve, but in my opinion they have a much bigger job catching up to Maia and Alex than Maia and Alex had catching up to them last year. I/K need to rework quite a bit of their basic skills to gain the flow of the top teams.

I agree that I/K have to work on a lot technically. But if they can catch up technically they should pass the Shibs. I'm not a big fan of brother and sister teams and think there's a lot these type of teams can't do artistically. In terms of artistry just in general I think I/K have more potential. Better lines, better style etc.