What will the 2011/2012 season bring us in the men? | Golden Skate

What will the 2011/2012 season bring us in the men?

ImaginaryPogue

Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 3, 2009
WHAT WILL THE 2011/2012 SEASON BRING US IN THE MEN?

It’s Chan’s World, we just live in it
His scoring capability is epic. He doesn’t merely beat records, he smashes them. He’s a COP machine (yes, I realize the negative connotations of that word, and don’t mean to shirk them). His improvement this season has been damn near historic. He went from a season of no quads to landing three per competition. His triple axel, while shaky, isn’t going away any time soon. He’ll enter every competition as the favourite. Keep in mind this is an athlete who dreams of dominating – like Kwan, like Federer, like Tiger Woods. And if he continues to improve at even half the rate we saw this year.... whoa. It’ll be cool to see if he thrives on being one of the chased skaters as much as one of the chasers.

So, what does he need to do maintain his momentum this upcoming season? What would you like to see him do overall? Is his goal of domination plausible?

The first question is easy: merely keep challenging himself (which he’s clearly doing with going for the quad lutz/flip attempts; as well as getting to work right away) and stay injury free. The second question and third questions... well, I’m more curious about others responses here.

America: An epic opera in three parts

i. Is Dornbush the new number one?
He’s entering next season as the highest ranked American at worlds as well has the highest ranked skater at his own Nationals (with Bradley’s retirement). With three solid back-to-back competitions, we can’t dismiss him as a fluke. And he’s planning on working on a quad this summer. It’s definitely plausible

ii. What happens to Abbott and Rippon?
Rippon went from beating the reigning World Champion (on his own turf) AND the reigning Olympic Silver medalist with a program score that suggested he would challenge for the podium (his LP score was higher than Gachinski’s at Worlds). Abbott was the two time National champion. Neither had sterling GP seasons, but when compared to the PCS-less Mroz, the out-of-retirement Bradley, the newness of Armin, the struggling Miner…. well, Nationals should’ve been a breeze. Instead, neither made the top three/Worlds team.

On the one hand, Rippon does tend to start strongly (TEB bronze medal in 2009) only to falter as the season progresses. And Abbott does normally peak early and might have been attempting recalibration to avoid that this time. But what lessons do they take? What does that mean for the upcoming season?

iii. Breadth vs Depth: Max, Mroz, Miner, Messing, Mahbanoozadeh
If you were to ask me which nation had the deepest team, I’d go with Japan. Four skaters in the top ten SB. Medalists at seven GP events, 4CC and Worlds, senior and junior. But in terms of breadth and depth…. I’d go with the USA. Four skaters qualified for the JGPF. Assuming both Ferris and Brown stick with juniors (both can, and given that Brown is without a 3A and that Ferris is coming back from injury/between coaches, they should). Miner had a solid result at Worlds that some feel was actually too low (doris, Blades). Mroz had a strong GP season, as did Mahbanoozadeh and Messing. And Max starts with M, so ignoring Mr. Aaron seemed mean. Can one of them have a true breakthrough season? You know, checking out past worlds, the USA has had “one-time” top ten candidates with Carriere, Mroz, Rippon, Abbott and Dornbush (the last three have the big honkin caveat that is SO FAR)

Canada’s Number Two?
Does SC really care? Here’s the thing. If Chan gets injured, are there two Canadians you think could guarantee TWO spots if they skate their best? Heading into this season, who woulda thunk that Sawyer AND Russell would beat Reynolds to the world team? It might not be fair to say this, but Chan’s LP score was greater than Russell’s/Reynolds total score at Worlds. Reynolds should be good enough for a top ten/12, but not this year. I’m most curious about Firus and Rogozine. Firus doesn’t have the triple axel, but he’s got a lovely sense of artistry. I doubt Firus is making the leap to seniors until the 2012/13 season, so he’s out. Rogozine, well he’s got the 3A and does it from a spread eagle. But, similar to Mroz, his PCS aren’t that strong and he’ll need a LOT of work to develop there. Very curious to see what Balde does on the international circuit. He’s someone I suspect could have a solid career outside the competitive ranks.

I do think this is a make or break year for Reynolds, though. I almost want him to stop chasing the four quads and just work on improving his PCS and general consistency/mental game.

Random side note: Canada finds it easier to get three spots than to keep them. 2007-2012: 3 spots (Buttle, Sandhu, Mabee), 2 spots (Buttle, Chan), 3 (Chan, Chipeur, Ten), 2 (Chan, Reynolds), 3 (Chan, Reynolds, Russell), 2 (Chan, ??)

Ring out the old, Bring in the New....
Brezina vs Verner
Amodio vs Joubert
Gachinsky vs Plushenko’s ghost
Hanyu vs Kozuka vs Takahashi vs Oda

It’s rather appropriate that Chan won the title this past season, for he represents both worlds. Thanks to Buttle retiring, he was elevated to his country’s number one rather fortuitously (though maybe he would’ve done that in the 08/09 season anyway). But he’s actually younger than Rippon, Brezina, Amodio, and Kozuka (and only a month older than Miner). But I think that the shift we were anticipating for last season will be fully played out in time for Nice. Amodio, Brezina and Kozuka were all the ranking skaters at worlds, and despite losing the National title, Gachinsky’s solid Euros sent him to Worlds... and you know the rest. Of the four, only one of them won.

It’ll be neat to see some of the choices from the other federations (if, indeed, it turns out choices need to be made). Majorov vs Schlutheiss. Van der Perren vs Hendrickx. Mostly, I’m curious about the Japanese men. Assuming that Tanaka stays junior another season and that none of the also-rans has a big breakthrough, the Japanese federation has a very interesting foursome at play here.
 

Tinymavy15

Sinnerman for the win
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Joined
Dec 28, 2006
Chan will either a.) have a killer year and be unbeatable or b.) have a minor slump (and maybe still remain unbeatable). I am inclined towards the former, but I hope Takahaski will re-gain more confidence and physical strength.

It will be interesting to see if Kozuka trully establishes himself as a top man in the international scene after his world medal, I hope he develops more in the presentation and performance area. If he could get a quad somewhat consistanant he and Chan could be battling it out in Sochi.

I don't see the American men doing much in 11-12. Abbott will still be his usual self, hopefully he will get another national championship and at least make the world team. Dornbush, Miner, etc, i predict some growing pains. For Rippon its now or never, he was supposed to be on the olympic team and wasn't, he was supposed to claim his superiority last season and didn't. If he does not make a big move next season he has little chance of ever being considered a serious medal condenter by 2014.
 

gmyers

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Joined
Mar 6, 2010
In Chan's Canadian title and World title he messed up on the 3A. In the SP at CN he doubled it. At worlds he had that step out in the FS. I just wonder about whether or not he gets a handle on doing that jump! It's such a flaw. What if he lost ability to do it? I can't imagine him not doing it. Not doing it in a SP would be really bad. Though if he did do a quad flip or Lutz and do it like he does the quad toe that would be something. But with the quad toe he has been working off computer models of Plushenko and maybe other people. There is no such models with that jump. Though maybe Chan could become the model for 4f or 4lz. Bring that up because maybe he could replace doing a 3A with that. But he really doesn't have to drop the 3A he just needs a way to do it better. Kozuka did beat him in tech at worlds. Kozuka doesn't have the PCS and worlds 2011 had Kozuka mistake in the SP (on the 3A) but his best FS skate. Which was unlike worlds 2010 where he had a terrible FS.

Gachinksi's world bronze was really impressive. He is 17 and has all the jumps. He is such company as Yagudin and Plushenko in having a debut at third. Obviously the judges were so harsh on him on PCS. 9th in the SP 5th in LP. It's really the 9th that shows there is so much to work on. Having all the jumps is what won the bronze. He wouldn't have won if 1-Oda counted properly, Takahashi's boot didn't lose a screw and maybe even if Brezina hadn't fallen twice. But he showed he was the only one besides Chan who could do a good 4/3 in the SP. That was cover for his mistake on the 3loop. He could afford a mistake. But you know I thought his interpretation of Great Gig in the Sky was great.
 
Joined
Jul 11, 2003
Great Review, IP :thumbsup:

In addition to the Worlds American Newbees, I'm hoping to also see, Jason Brown and that little fellow Chen. It's sad to think about Abbott and his failure to make the Team, but he still is the best male skater the USFS has in podium potential. Rippon never really developed a personal style and without a quad, the style becomes very important.

On the international scene, I am only looking forward to seeing Hanyu. Of course, I will watch intently, the performances of the other three, but I feel they have reached their prime and I will check out if it is time to say - past their prime. Chan, of course, is a very unique skater having a full tech with good basic skating to accompany it. I'm just not sure if he has a style, although he is musical. He's worth a serious look this season to see if he can make back to back Golds.

In Europe, we have the two Czech boys, one whom I think is past his prime (Verner), and the other, Brezina, I give one more chance to make it for the nonBigFed skaters. I am anxious to see Fernandez and hoping he just skates seriously competitively without any of Morozov's character portraits. While Germany's Liebers has all the necessary tech and performance, he lacks a quad or maybe two quads. Gachinsky has the old Soviet style and most likely will fulfil the tech scores with his jumps, he does lack a bit of pizzazz outside of Russia. It's no longer a jumping contest for Men.

Maybe after the next Worlds, we can list some skaters as being past their primes
 

Sylvia

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 25, 2003
Rippon never really developed a personal style and without a quad, the style becomes very important.
I don't believe this clip has been posted here at GS yet but Rippon has been practicing a quad Lutz -- here's an attempt from March: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dW-eSthy0Gk
Here's an excerpt from his May 12th journal update on his official site:
With only two seasons left before the Olympics, David [Wilson] and I thought it was important to try a few different styles and get me out of my comfort zone. That's why for this season I'll be working with Shae-Lynn Bourne on my short program and Pasquale Camerlengo on my long program. I'm so excited to work with both of them and can't wait to get started later this month. I also have been working on some new elements and I'm hopeful to even make some history. :)

Jason Brown recently skated an exhibition in Dallas: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AN1Qje6ZTr4
I expect both him and Joshua Farris to lead the US men on the JGP this season.

Two-time US Novice men's champion Nathan Chen turned 12 earlier this month but has to wait one more season before he's old enough to compete on the JGP. He is scheduled to compete in the Junior Men's event at Liberty in July.
 
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Joined
Mar 14, 2006
Thanks for posting Jason Brown's exhibition, Sylvia. That young man has heaven-sent talent. He has more WOW moves than most of the top skaters. Still no 3A, though....
 

silverlake22

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Joined
Nov 12, 2009
I'm interested to see Joubert vs. Amodio and Verner vs. Brezina next season because I think there's a chance Joubert and Verner could still hold their own because:
1.) Amodio has no quad and Morozov seems to be destroying his soul in some ways, making him more generic. He is consistent and a great jumper but idk how far that will get him if he continues to move away from his soft, lyrical roots.
2.) Brezina doesn't have much in the way of artistry and is still a bit milktoast-y IMO. Also this season, it seems like he became more inconsistent. I know he was injured, but to go from that super SP at Euros to the crap LP he had there, and then score 130 in the QR LP at Worlds two days before scoring 156 in the actual competition...idk it's a little concerning. Especially where he trains in Europe.
3.) Verner still has all the tools to be on a Worlds podium if he can put it together (reworking the 3ax might be a good idea though), and he did show much better consistency this season, so if he can stay on that path, steer clear of injuries, and dump that crap MJ program asap and replace it with a quality LP then...who knows
4.) Joubert might be mad about finishing 8th at Worlds after skating so well in the FS, so I think he could come back with a vengeance and be ready to fight. Also his programs weren't great this season, and with better programs next season he might seem less "outdated". Idk. I kind of like brooding, introspective Joubert, and think if he can channel this in his programs, it could make him stand out.
 
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Joined
Jul 11, 2003
I don't believe this clip has been posted here at GS yet but Rippon has been practicing a quad Lutz -- here's an attempt from March: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dW-eSthy0Gk
Here's an excerpt from his May 12th journal update on his official site:
The Quad looks good and it's a Lutz - not easy. Happy to see the Canadians are taking an interest in him. I don't know Carmerlengo. but Shae Lynn is style personified. He's back on my list to watch again.

Jason Brown recently skated an exhibition in Dallas: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AN1Qje6ZTr4
I expect both him and Joshua Farris to lead the US men on the JGP this season.
Jason is a marvel of solo dancing. Juniors will be between he and Joshua.

Two-time US Novice men's champion Nathan Chen turned 12 earlier this month but has to wait one more season before he's old enough to compete on the JGP. He is scheduled to compete in the Junior Men's event at Liberty in July.
This kid when he reaches senior, I wouldn't be surprised if he wins his first Olys. increible)
 

blue_idealist

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Joined
Feb 25, 2006
I think Chan will continue to dominate if he stays injury-free, but will receive some competition from Kozuka and Takahashi. I could even see Takahashi beating him again. So, I guess it would only be partial dominance. When it comes to Canada's #2, Shawn Sawyer is still listed on the Canadian National Team as per the Skate Canada site, and has not announced an OFFICIAL retirement. We know what happened last season, he said he was leaving and then came back. This might be wishful thinking but I'm hoping that SC is trying to persuade him to stay because of the poor results of Reynolds and Russell at Worlds and that he will stay. I think if Shawn stays he may stay Canada's #2 because Reynolds is really struggling lately and he's obviously better than Russell. If the 'old' Reynolds from two years ago comes back he could be a good #2 for Canada. If not, and there's no Shawn, I think Rogozine or Balde might be able to take the second spot instead. I had great hopes for Russell, but after he tanked at Worlds I'm not so sure. Firus is good for his age but he's not quite there yet.

For the US Men, I do not see Abbott missing the World team again. That was just kind of fluke-ish. I do see him potentially losing Nationals to Dornbush or Miner, though. Actually, there is a small chance he could miss the US team because I forgot the US does not have three spots anymore. Dornbush and Miner could take the two spots and leave him at home. I'm really not sure about Rippon, either. It seems he struggled last season and he's made a coaching change so I feel I can't accurately predict how he will skate. I guess I would call the US #1 position a struggle between Dornbush and Abbott right now, and I think who it really is might become clear after the GP season. I don't see Mahbahnoozadeh, Mroz or any of the others listed as real contenders for the US national title, but as we saw last season, anything can happen at US Nats.

Ok, on to the Japanese men. I think that the Big Three are still Takahashi, Kozuka, and Oda. I don't see Hanyu as quite up with the other three yet although he is definitely a star of the future. I think Takahashi is losing a little bit of ground to Kozuka but that is probably due to his injury. Oda I think will be relegated to third spot as long as he keeps committing COP mix-ups, and I don't know if he's EVER going to stop doing that as he seems to never learn when it comes to that! It's too bad because I think at Worlds he actually skated better than T or K and could have finished way higher if he had not lost ten points uneccessarily.

Brezina vs. Verner - this is a hard one to call as both can be on or off, especially Verner, and Brezina was injured this past season. They're both around the same age even though fans have seen Verner longer, I think. I would give Brezina the edge right now by a bit, I guess.

Amodio vs. Joubert - as much as it pains me to say this, as a Joubert fan, Amodio is overtaking him slowly, and probably will completely go by him by Sochi unless Brian does something major. I'm really hoping he does something major, as I'm definitely not an Amodio fan. It's not like he's totally leaving Brian in his dust though.

Gachinski vs. Plushenko - well, first of all we have to see if Plushenko actually gets the ok to come back to competition, and if he can still skate even as well as in 2010. I think he would definitely finish ahead of Gachinski in competitions if he skated like he did in Vancouver. Gachinski's not that great. He got the bronze at worlds this year because other people didn't skate their best.

Majorov vs. Schultheiss - Oh I wish it could be Berntsson. Since both of these guys tanked at Worlds I'm not sure who it's going to be next season as the #1. Schultheiss has more of an established reputation but it seems like in general, last season, Majorov skated better. Schultheiss seems to be reinvigorated to continue skating though, as I saw some article that said that, so maybe he will come back with a bang next season.

Van der Perren vs. Hendrickx - Ack, I hope VDP can stay the dominant guy in his country until Sochi. I feel sorry for him as he used to be somewhat of a medal contender at Worlds (I guess he still is at Euros since he finished 4th) but has struggled recently. It would be a shame to see him get passed, and Hendrickx isn't that great yet. He can have the time after Sochi for his dominance lol. He was close to VDP at Worlds but VDP did not have his best scores, probably more close to his worst scores.
 
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pangtongfan

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Jun 16, 2010
Chan will be unbeatable until he retires, and is a lock to win 2012 Worlds, 2013 Worlds, 2014 Olympics, and 2014 Worlds (if he goes, he might well just go pro immediately after winning the 2014 Olympics). He can fall 5 times over the 2 programs and still win even if one of his nearest competitors skates perfectly. No further discussion required on him.

Kozuka is now the #1 Japanese moving forward. He hit a new level at Worlds, especialy in the LP. He can still improve alot more, and will have to strive to improve a huge amount if he is to ever challenge Chan in anyway, or stay ahead of a slew of other strong Japanese men.

Oda is really at a crossroads of his career. Kozuka moving past him is bad news for him going forward. He has alot of talent still but alot to work on. His artistry still could be improved alot, he doesnt have a very mature look or programs at times, and his choreography is fairly basic. He needs to work hard on consistency obviously, and to stop making silly COP based mistakes which he is not good enough to afford the margin of. It is not too late for him to make a push to be Japanese #1 or get on the World podium, but if he doesnt make any progress this year he could well be fighting to even stay on the team by Sochi.

Takahashi looks on the way down. Technically he went into major decline, his spins and jumps are not that strong and dont score that well even when he makes them, and he has become even more inconsistent. 2008 Takahashi is the only one who could beat Chan, but he isnt even close to 2010 Takahashi anymore. I am not sure what his goals are this point, I would be surprised to see him still around for Sochi though. Wouldnt be surprised to see the Japanese federation bump him off their World team in an attempt to retire him if he stays much longer, maybe even this season depending how he fares on the grand prix. Of course he has enough talent he could make a mini comeback of sorts, he will never be World Champion again though, and he should have taken his chance for the Oly Gold in Vancouver.

Abbott is done internationally. Stick a fork in him. The U.S men are fairly weak so he might regain his U.S title (though I doubt it) but he wont ever make a World podium at this point. It wouldnt surprise me if he never makes another U.S World team again either though.

Verner is also done. Like Abbott he has run out of opportunties. This years Worlds was his last one and he didnt even make a decent attempt. Brezina is now the Czech #1 for good. He might hang around for Sochi, he can probably handle being a journeyman from here if I turn out to be correct, he wasnt ever much more than that despite his European title. He wont even be European Champion again, let alone better his career best 4th place finishes at Worlds.

Brezina has all the potential to reach major podiums. If he stays healthy he has a good shot next year. He needs to improve his consistency and his PCS though. He has huge and exciting jumps.

Amodio is the new French #1 IMO but I wouldnt be surprised if he never makes a major podium. He just doesnt seem to have that extra something. He is young enough he should be a contender in the coming years though.

Joubert is done as well. He will retire after Worlds in France next year, and if he doesnt he will receive Suguri like treatment from the judges after that.

I think Dornbush is the U.S #1 going into next season. I think he has potential to be a contender at the World level too. Just needs more experience, maturity, and working on the quad.

Rippon I think could make a decent comeback and maybe make it to Worlds. I am not sure if he will ever have the career people predicted for him a year or two ago though.

Miner and Mroz have shots at the World team next year too.

Gaschinski has a bright future. He will continue to mature and improve and be a huge contender by Sochi.

The other Canadian men dont even interest me enough to comment on. I hope Reynolds has a very good year and comes 2nd at Canadians, and surprises by making top 10 at next years Worlds though.
 

silverlake22

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Joined
Nov 12, 2009
I don't really agree with this whole Chan is going to completely dominate from now until Sochi. I think Kozuka can be major competition for him, as he showed at Worlds. With a good SP and FS next season, I think he could feasibly start beating Chan, especially if he starts putting the quad in the SP. Idk, I think he is one to watch, and will give Chan a run for his money. Oda and Takahashi are still great but I think they are on the downswing, and if Kozuka can be comfortably Japan #1 then that will help.
 

Serious Business

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Jan 7, 2011
It's all about the quad. We're at the stage now where we have a large number of men/boys on the verge who can land most of their planned triples, keep the levels up on spins and footwork, and have decent enough skating skills to keep the PCS healthy. With the boost in quad points, and the clear example from Worlds - where everybody on the podium landed quads - expect all the up and comers to try for quads. And some of them will no doubt succeed and land that darn jump regularly, and that will be the breakout star of the season. Who knows, we might even have more than one.

If Dornbush picks up a regular quad, boom, he'll be the great US hope. Same with Miner and all the rest on the US side. My greatest hope is that Jason Brown picks up the quad (a 3axel would be nice, too, but having a quad puts him further ahead on the senior scene). Just look at the clip Sylvia posted. The guy is brilliant in every way. The one upcoming US guy who has tried quads in competition is Messing, and I have no doubt he will land them regularly in competition soon. But unless he cleans up his presentation, I'm not sure senior judges will be totally behind him.

If Amodio picks up a quad, boom! Now if he could just stay away from crazy stunts like using music with lyrics...

Japanese up and comer Yozuru Hanyu already landed multiple quads in competition. He is very, very promising and has true star quality to boot. But despite my fandom, I have to admit he has a bunch of weaknesses: his stamina flags - his skating gets messier as it goes on in the FS, he also doesn't finish his moves, which comes off as sloppy presentation. I have no doubt he can win competitions (he's already medaled in a bunch of international comps this past season), but I'm not so sure he will consistently be a contender unless he improves on his flaws.

Everybody in the old guard who doesn't have the consistency (everybody from Daisuke to Abbott to Brezina to Verner) better get it quick, or they will have to bank on luck to win. Because I have no doubt one or more of the up and comers who have most of their best qualities will pick up that last bit: the quad. And once he/they do, the old fogeys will be left behind.
 

ImaginaryPogue

Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 3, 2009
I do think if anyone is going to be competition for Chan it'll be Kozuka. Interesting that ptf thinks Takahashi is on a downswing. I've gotta say, between him and Oda, I'd assume Oda is. I predict that the JPF would be concerned about him more than Dai.

Side question: is Ponsero competing at all next season?
 

gmyers

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Joined
Mar 6, 2010
Most of the time the same skater has dominated all the way to one Olympics to the next Olympics. 2006 to 2010 was just odd in that no one did that at all. Maybe that was COP in effect or it was just the skaters of that quad. So maybe Chan could make it like skating used to be and have one person always winning gold or silver. I guess I expect him to be dominant. He has set himself up for domination with his adding of quads and quad triples and two quads.
 
Joined
Mar 14, 2006
My gut tells me it will be Hanyu and Amodio who can threaten Chan in the near future, but probably not this season. This season I hope and pray it will be Daisuke. I think Kozuka is overrated; he's very clean and skilled but makes no impression - he skates petite (JMO). I'd love to see the American men step up, especially Brown. One of these days if all goes according to (my) plan, it will be Brown v. Hanyu.

ETA: BTW, I'm perfectly happy with Chan dominating if Dai is unable to perform a mind-over-matter miracle. In his own way Patrick is perfection. I just hope he can keep challenging himself to grow artistically and even technically, because honestly the threats to him that I just mentioned seem pretty remote at the moment.
 
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pangtongfan

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Jun 16, 2010
I do think if anyone is going to be competition for Chan it'll be Kozuka. Interesting that ptf thinks Takahashi is on a downswing. I've gotta say, between him and Oda, I'd assume Oda is. I predict that the JPF would be concerned about him more than Dai.

Side question: is Ponsero competing at all next season?

It is hard to say between Oda and Takahashi. I just think Oda is more likely to stick around for 2014. Takahashi isnt a big threat to win major titles anymore, and for someone who is a former World Champion, formerly held the LP WR, came close (in a way) winning the Olympic Gold, and could have dominated the 2007-2010 quad if he had stayed healthy, that is hard to accept. I am not sure how motivated he will be knowing this. Oda was never a champion, he isnt even a World medalist, so isnt as likely to be frusterated being a lesser contender.

I imagine the Japanese skating federation is nearly fed up with Oda by now though. He hasnt won a World medal yet, he hasnt improved hardly any since 4 or 5 years ago, he continues to be inconsistent, and he continues to make stupid COP judgement errors which cost him medals. He isnt that young anymore either.

I think 2 of the 3 spots on the Japanese Sochi team are wide open at this point, Takahashi and Oda have yet to lock in their positions by any means.
 

bekalc

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Joined
Nov 1, 2006
Japanese up and comer Yozuru Hanyu already landed multiple quads in competition. He is very, very promising and has true star quality to boot. But despite my fandom, I have to admit he has a bunch of weaknesses: his stamina flags - his skating gets messier as it goes on in the FS, he also doesn't finish his moves, which comes off as sloppy presentation. I have no doubt he can win competitions (he's already medaled in a bunch of international comps this past season), but I'm not so sure he will consistently be a contender unless he improves on his flaws.

Hanyu is very young, younger than Artur I believe. These things are very fixable.


It is hard to say between Oda and Takahashi. I just think Oda is more likely to stick around for 2014. Takahashi isnt a big threat to win major titles anymore, and for someone who is a former World Champion, formerly held the LP WR, came close (in a way) winning the Olympic Gold, and could have dominated the 2007-2010 quad if he had stayed healthy, that is hard to accept. I am not sure how motivated he will be knowing this. Oda was never a champion, he isnt even a World medalist, so isnt as likely to be frusterated being a lesser contender.

I imagine the Japanese skating federation is nearly fed up with Oda by now though. He hasnt won a World medal yet, he hasnt improved hardly any since 4 or 5 years ago, he continues to be inconsistent, and he continues to make stupid COP judgement errors which cost him medals. He isnt that young anymore either.

I think 2 of the 3 spots on the Japanese Sochi team are wide open at this point, Takahashi and Oda have yet to lock in their positions by any means.

I think Kozuka and Hanyu are the future for the Japanese men, and the Japanese Fed would be foolish not to see things that way. The Japanese Fed has to bee seeing as getting Hanyu at Worlds next year as a priority. I can't imagine why they wouldn't especially be done with Oda, given that Oda has cost himself- 2 World Medals, a Japanese National Title, an Olympic spot, a 3rd better placement at worlds, and Skate America, with his own inability to count. And given what went on at last years worlds he can't even be seen as reliable.

Daisuke too is showing himself to be quite inconsistent too. At this point I'd imagine the Japanese Fed putting all of their attention and focus on Kozuka and Hanyu, while having Daisuke and Oda fighting it out for spot no 3.
 

dorispulaski

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Jul 26, 2003
Country
United-States
I love that Galleria clip of Jason Brown!! The spin!!! The hydroblade (so very low) into a big split jump--everything always so unpredictable and unexpected.

Does anyone have any news about whether Jason is competing anywhere in summer competitions?
 
Joined
Jul 11, 2003
We seem to be discussing the last time I saw so and so, and not evaluating his previous record.

Chan performed an exemplorary program at Worlds, but this is new for him. He has never done that before. If we go by the topic, he is worth a special watch to see if he can do it again.

Kozuka, too had a best showing at Worlds. Will he repeat it? Well, worth a watch.

While I think Takahashi is past his prime, that doesn't mean he can't find the heart to win one more time.

There's a new breed of Men coming into contender status. Hanyu; Miner, Dornbush. Let's see how well they fit into the scheme of things. They don't have to win. This is not a prediction thread where one lists their favorites. It's about seeing how the contestants appeared in 2011/12. Only a competition will tell.

A medal denotes the best skater that day. It does not necessarily denote the best skater in the competition.
 

waxel

Final Flight
Joined
Jun 18, 2005
Do not see Mroz or Miner having the goods long term. Maybe Dornbush. But he is still very Jr. ish in presentation. I still long for Rippon to hit the top.
 
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