What will the 2011/2012 season bring us in the men?

mot · May 31, 2011

A general question - how do you guys decide whether a particular skater is 'past his prime' or not? What criteria do you apply? - I am just curious...

For example;

highest placement of the season
average result of the season
highest or average total score
highest or average TES
highest or average PCS
jump layout
any other?

I am using Daisuke as an example to see when his prime was (as I know him better than any other current skater)...

highest placement of the season - 09/10 (note his GPS results were worse than 10/11)
average result of the season - 06/07 (1st & 2nd GPS, 2nd GPF, 2nd WC) or 07/08 (2 wins GPS, 2nd GPF, 1st FCC, 4th WC) ... depends on how you evaluate each competition, I guess
highest or average scores / TES - hard to say as base values, total number of elements, guidance on how to give GOE, and level features change from season to season
highest or average PCS - highest 09/10 WC, average 10/11
jump layout - 07/08 (4T 4T-2T 3A 3A-2T-2Lo 3F-3T 3S 3Lo 3Lz) but his PCS was nowhere near what he was getting 09/10 or 10/11

attyfan · May 31, 2011

Maybe, the ISU's ruling on this will affect what the season will bring in the men's event:

http://en.rian.ru/sports/20110530/164319627.html

Tinymavy15 · May 31, 2011

pangtongfan said:
Takahashi isnt a big threat to win major titles anymore, and for someone who is a former World Champion, formerly held the LP WR, came close (in a way) winning the Olympic Gold, and could have dominated the 2007-2010 quad if he had stayed healthy, that is hard to accept. I am not sure how motivated he will be knowing this. Oda was never a champion, he isnt even a World medalist, so isnt as likely to be frusterated being a lesser contender.

I think Takahashi is Chan's biggest threat at this point. He has landed, and will try quads, has PCS that can go through the roof and all triples (including axel) are consistent. He may not have the best result at worlds, but to count him out would be insane to me.

janetfan · May 31, 2011

Tinymavy15 said:
I think Takahashi is Chan's biggest threat at this point. He has landed, and will try quads, has PCS that can go through the roof and all triples (including axel) are consistent. He may not have the best result at worlds, but to count him out would be insane to me.

I kind of agree with you but think Kozuka might be a bigger challenge to Chan.

As much as Dai can do on the ice the CoP is more about rewarding mechanical skating. Chan and Kozuka IMO are the two best CoP skaters headiing into next season.

A system that gives Alena higher PCS than Mao is obviosuly not about true artistic skating but something much diffferent.

That would include skating through the music and reacting to it rather than actually interpreting it. Young Gachinksy comes to mind.

Chan's best trick is that he never stops moving and bending. It doesn't matter if his posture can't touch Joubert and that he skates by numbers and never shows the musical nuances we see from Jeremy or the expression we see from Dai.

The CoP as defined by Lori has spoken. Not sure if Evan and Patrick are my two all-time favorite male skaters but until there are a few changes don't expect to see different results.

There is a world of difference in interpreting the LP music Kozuka skated to and the juniorish requirements needed for something as lame and commercial as POTO.

I wait for Chan to skate to some real music and see how he does and it is telling that it took him two years to master the POTO program :eek:

:

:

pangtongfan · May 31, 2011

Tinymavy15 said:
I think Takahashi is Chan's biggest threat at this point. He has landed, and will try quads, has PCS that can go through the roof and all triples (including axel) are consistent. He may not have the best result at worlds, but to count him out would be insane to me.

His TES were low all year even when he skated decently. His spins suck, and his jumps arent getting that much GOE compared to others (even when done cleanly), his jump layouts and levels often arent high enough, and he is more inconsistent than ever. His PCS wont be up with Chan either unless the TES is stronger than it is now. Sorry I dont see him coming close to Chan at this point. At Takahashis peak he posted a mid 170s LP. He is well below the skater he was then and Chan is now going over 190 in the LP.

ImaginaryPogue · May 31, 2011

mot said:
A general question - how do you guys decide whether a particular skater is 'past his prime' or not? What criteria do you apply? - I am just curious...

1. How likely is it that the skater is going to get better?
I look at Kozuka, Chan, Amodio, Brezina etc and I see skaters that are still in the stage of partially fulfilled potential. If they weren't to get any better as skaters (whether technical or performance), I would be disappointed, regardless of their future trophy hauls. In the case of Takahashi, I hope he'll get better, but I wonder if that's possible. In the case of Oda.... I just don't know - his programs generally do nothing for me and he makes twenty points worth of mistakes in his first two jumping passes.

2. If that skater isn't likely to get better, how likely is he/she going to maintain his current level of ability?
Dai had to take the 08/09 season off due to injury, and he hasn't been the same ever since, technically speaking. Now he's off the ice again (though he'll be back on in time for next season, I know). While I wouldn't go so far to say he's out of the game completely, if you look at his faults (as defined as areas he loses points on) there are a few.

3. What level of support can he expect?
Now this is where I part from ptf. I think Oda is the skater who, if the Japanese Federation wants to push someone out, is the target. Takahashi seems to be a bit more of an icon of figure skating and he's got the competitive record to go along with it: first male WC, first Olympic medalist. Oda's had so many odd misses. Forget his math skills - he melted down so dramatically last season he didn't make the LP. I've gotta wonder if patience is wearing thin. A corrolary to this component is the level of skating in their country. Oda and Takahashi have Hanyu coming up strong.

pangtongfan · May 31, 2011

Hopefully the Japanese World team next season will be Kozuka, Takahashi, and Hanyu. In a way I hate to think Oda could drop off the World team before ever becoming a World medalist, but he has more than enough chances and hasnt made good on them, and while his Chaplin program and some others were charming and cute he still has shown virtually no improvement in his artistry or maturity on ice in all these years. So he might well be at the end of his line now, especialy if Takahashi continues. There are other young Japanese besides Hanyu too, and others who have knocked on the door awhile.

gmyers · May 31, 2011

This Nichol strategy of coming up with a move that can be used as choreo, transition, and interpretation has caused terribly overused things like Chans never ending kicks! I just hope he doesn't kick next sseason. BUt he probably will because it can be used in many categories of PCS.

silverlake22 · May 31, 2011

I know some people feel Kozuka is just a technician and a bit bland in all other areas - esp presentation, but you have to hand it to the guy, he knows CoP and has learned how to work the system. I mean, look how far consistency and CoP savvyness has gotten Miki Ando. I personally love Kozuka and his elegant yet understated quality, but see how some would think he is boring, but I really think he will be the one to give Chan a run for his money in the coming years. Plus he has no real weaknesses - strong, consistent jumps, all the technical goods, good, high-level spins, high PCS, nice programs, strong competitive nerves, and what appears to be a great work ethic. Sure, there are a lot of other talented guys out there, but I doubt all of them will be able put it together, or even if they do, it might take them a long time to get to that point. I don't feel this way about Kozuka.

Hanyu has potential too and I think if he could put on some muscle weight it would help with his stamina and presentation. I agree with the poster saying that it probably means Oda will be getting the boot. Takahashi is inconsistent, but he is always rewarded when he skates well (and is always a medal threat - usually gold, when he skates well), and is more than just a jumper. Oda OTOH is pretty much just a jumper and with his counting issues and not so great consistency with the quad, the jumps aren't even getting him anywhere so I think unless he makes huge strides artistically next season and becomes more CoP savvy, he will be done.

janetfan · Jun 1, 2011

gmyers said:
This Nichol strategy of coming up with a move that can be used as choreo, transition, and interpretation has caused terribly overused things like Chans never ending kicks! I just hope he doesn't kick next sseason. BUt he probably will because it can be used in many categories of PCS.

We don't alway agree but I find Chan's excessive and nonsensical "karate kicks" somwhat distubing and disruptive to an already overrated presentation.

I felt the same way about Flatt's ridiculous out of time with the music armflapping and steps to "East of Eden."

Don't even bring up Alena who IMO should just skate without any music at all for all the attention she gives it.

Tonichelle · Jun 1, 2011

Hernando said:
We don't alway agree but I find Chan's excessive and nonsensical "karate kicks" somwhat distubing and disruptive to an already overrated presentation.

Maybe he's just channelling Stojko, it's his way of trying to win Skate Canada approval for making skating more manly

(how many karate stances did we have to see in Elvis' program before we all got it that he was also apart of that sport?)

mot · Jun 1, 2011

ImaginaryPogue said:
1. How likely is it that the skater is going to get better?
I look at Kozuka, Chan, Amodio, Brezina etc and I see skaters that are still in the stage of partially fulfilled potential. If they weren't to get any better as skaters (whether technical or performance), I would be disappointed, regardless of their future trophy hauls. In the case of Takahashi, I hope he'll get better, but I wonder if that's possible. In the case of Oda.... I just don't know - his programs generally do nothing for me and he makes twenty points worth of mistakes in his first two jumping passes.

2. If that skater isn't likely to get better, how likely is he/she going to maintain his current level of ability?
Dai had to take the 08/09 season off due to injury, and he hasn't been the same ever since, technically speaking. Now he's off the ice again (though he'll be back on in time for next season, I know). While I wouldn't go so far to say he's out of the game completely, if you look at his faults (as defined as areas he loses points on) there are a few.

3. What level of support can he expect?
Now this is where I part from ptf. I think Oda is the skater who, if the Japanese Federation wants to push someone out, is the target. Takahashi seems to be a bit more of an icon of figure skating and he's got the competitive record to go along with it: first male WC, first Olympic medalist. Oda's had so many odd misses. Forget his math skills - he melted down so dramatically last season he didn't make the LP. I've gotta wonder if patience is wearing thin. A corrolary to this component is the level of skating in their country. Oda and Takahashi have Hanyu coming up strong.

Thank you, ImaginaryPogue, for your explanation! It makes sense to me.

However, it seems there is a discrepancy between which skater fans think is past his prime and what the skater thinks of himself. The situations defer from a country for another, but in case of Japan, where the field is exceptionally deep, if a skater thinks he is past his prime, I guess there is no reason to continue (unless he gets a masochistic kick out of losing...), considering how physically, emotionally, financially draining that will be. How one can continue battering his own body and purse if he don't believe in his potential yet to be realised?

Of course, there is a case of some skaters (Fumie Suguri comes to my mind) who perhaps know they have past their prime if considering only competitive success, but they want to continue because they love what they do. Their eyes are focussed on something that some fans cannot see / are not interested in seeing.

Whether fans are right or the skater is right is something we have to wait and see. I hope all skaters who are labelled as 'past his prime' have something left in them to prove fans wrong. To witness that will be another joy of being a figure skating fan, I believe.

Personally, I never understand why some fans bother to state a particular skater 'should quit'. It's their own life; they use their own money, batter their own body, have their own reputation and self esteem at stake, etc. It does not affect us, does it? It's none of our business. So why bother? Maybe some fans cannot stand seeing the skaters, once being their heroes, going down hill?

Joesitz (RIP) · Jun 1, 2011

Mot I don't think you can judge a primetime for a skater by listing his scoreing record. The problem in figure skating is that we do not see more than a few programs of a skater per year. The fundamental question would be Is he skating the same this season as he has in the past. Did he get more tentative while executing elements? Is his overall skating getting slower, and is he losing the Flow of basic steps from one element to another?

There comes a time in ALL sports where the "best" begin to show a downside in their performances. Aging is a big factor but also boredome can set in too.

Are Plushenko, Joubert, vdPerren, Berntsson, Takahashi, Weir, Abbott, Verner past their prime? I don't expect any of the aforementioned to capture that spark they once had. They may do well in a competition, but it will not match those previous splendid performances they once had.

mot · Jun 1, 2011

Joesitz said:
Mot I don't think you can judge a primetime for a skater by listing his scoreing record. The problem in figure skating is that we do not see more than a few programs of a skater per year. The fundamental question would be Is he skating the same this season as he has in the past. Did he get more tentative while executing elements? Is his overall skating getting slower, and is he losing the Flow of basic steps from one element to another?

There comes a time in ALL sports where the "best" begin to show a downside in their performances. Aging is a big factor but also boredome can set in too.

Are Plushenko, Joubert, vdPerren, Berntsson, Takahashi, Weir, Abbott, Verner past their prime? I don't expect any of the aforementioned to capture that spark they once had. They may do well in a competition, but it will not match those previous splendid performances they once had.

Joe, I agree with you in principle. What I personally look for, as a fan, in figure skating is not competitive success, but 'spark' in performances. But what 'spark' means to a spectator / fan is a touch subjective too, don't you think? The reason why I originally listed something more tangible (like scores and results) is so that we have a shared platform to agree or disagree whether a certain skater is past his prime or not - or try to question whether such a statement as 'past one's prime' is a possibility.

What is quite wonderful about figure skating is its multi-dimensionality - if such a word exists. Joubert used to excite me in his gorgeous jumps and manly expressions. Now, according to his latest interview, he knows he cannot compete with younger skates just with jumps, so he states he would like to explore more on the artistry side. His latest LP was an experiment for him, though opinions on how successful it was seem to vary. At least he has found a new direction that excites him (he said he loved his LP and wants to pursue the similar), and I am looking forward to seeing how much improvement he shows next season. Perhaps he can bring on a different kind of 'spark' in the coming seasons?

Takahashi has stated many times that there is a limit in technical capacity of a skater, but there is no end in pursuing mastery in artistic expressions. I do not believe pre-injury Takahashi could have skated the programmes of the last two seasons so convincingly. He's also keenly aware of 'boredom' factor you mentioned. He thus tries to skate a programme with different styles of music each season. How much more different can Invierno Porteño be from La Strada? Or Historia de un Amor from Hiphop Swan Lake? (Don't you agree his skating has actually improved since his come back from injury BTW? He was always a master of edge work, in my opinion, but his 'vocabulary' in footwork has become richer. His last SP was showcase of different kinds of skating / footwork - some long-held edges at the beginning to fierce and quick edge work in the SlSt with use of lots of complicated toe steps. Compared to that, his Hiphop Swan was rather monotonous.)

It happens in many fields of arts. Artists change and improve, widen their horizons and bring out something new. It often comes with age and experiences. I believe in that side of figure skating as much as the technical side.

Joesitz (RIP) · Jun 1, 2011

^^^^
While I was always interested in Takahashi's skating (since 2004 Worlds), and never surprised that he became a World Champion, but that was the way of the CoP, not the convincing artistry that was held by the 6.0 system.

Im aware of what he has done in the past, but in the past few seasons I noticed a bit of slump in his overall performances. They are not as eyecatching as in the previous season. it's that spark thing, I spoke of. I really do not thing that his wild arms in the footwork segment will sell a skater. To me, they all look the same. I prefer a skater like Jason Brown who does not make an issue of the content of program but does make an issue of the entire program to music. Takahashi does seem to want that more than two consecutive Quad jumps.

Lambiel in 2006 Olys showed his downside when there was a chance for him to win the Olys. It happens to the best of competitors in any given Sport. We'll watch Taka's spark moreso than his possible medals in the upcoming GPs.

let`s talk · Jun 1, 2011

When you watch skating on TV, the camera puts everyone in the center, and they all look "similar" in height, weight, etc. Even if we all know that they are not, the TV practically hides the difference. Another story is when you watch men's competitions live. That is when Mr. Gigantesque Torso is at his best. Brian, Plush, etc. I want to see more masculinity on ice. I am sure I will be luckier next year.

Olympia · Jun 1, 2011

mot said:
Joe, I agree with you in principle. What I personally look for, as a fan, in figure skating is not competitive success, but 'spark' in performances. But what 'spark' means to a spectator / fan is a touch subjective too, don't you think? The reason why I originally listed something more tangible (like scores and results) is so that we have a shared platform to agree or disagree whether a certain skater is past his prime or not - or try to question whether such a statement as 'past one's prime' is a possibility.

What is quite wonderful about figure skating is its multi-dimensionality - if such a word exists. Joubert used to excite me in his gorgeous jumps and manly expressions. Now, according to his latest interview, he knows he cannot compete with younger skates just with jumps, so he states he would like to explore more on the artistry side. His latest LP was an experiment for him, though opinions on how successful it was seem to vary. At least he has found a new direction that excites him (he said he loved his LP and wants to pursue the similar), and I am looking forward to seeing how much improvement he shows next season. Perhaps he can bring on a different kind of 'spark' in the coming seasons?

Takahashi has stated many times that there is a limit in technical capacity of a skater, but there is no end in pursuing mastery in artistic expressions. I do not believe pre-injury Takahashi could have skated the programmes of the last two seasons so convincingly. He's also keenly aware of 'boredom' factor you mentioned. He thus tries to skate a programme with different styles of music each season. How much more different can Invierno Porteño be from La Strada? Or Historia de un Amor from Hiphop Swan Lake? (Don't you agree his skating has actually improved since his come back from injury BTW? He was always a master of edge work, in my opinion, but his 'vocabulary' in footwork has become richer. His last SP was showcase of different kinds of skating / footwork - some long-held edges at the beginning to fierce and quick edge work in the SlSt with use of lots of complicated toe steps. Compared to that, his Hiphop Swan was rather monotonous.)

It happens in many fields of arts. Artists change and improve, widen their horizons and bring out something new. It often comes with age and experiences. I believe in that side of figure skating as much as the technical side.

I completely agree. That's the extra layer that skating provides as a sport. A football player or a sprinter who loses his edge loses his excellence. But a skater who is a half-step behind in terms of jumps might advance a full step ahead in terms of other aspects of skating. It's not just artistry, either; it's subtleties of technique in other areas of skating, such as the edge work and toe steps you mentioned. Skaters like Takahashi have definitely not reached the end of their possibilities.

Not that this applies to the men's thread, but this is why it baffles me when people suggest that Mao Asada has passed her peak. Are they just watching with a measuring tape?

silverlake22 · Jun 1, 2011

There's lots of fresh new talent, but I have a feeling at least some of the "old timers" are not done yet, and may surprise in coming seasons. I know ladies is different, but who would have thought Ando, Kostner, and Czisny would have been some of the top ladies skaters this season at the age of 23 (which for ladies is more like mid-late 20s for men)? The same thing could happen in the men's field, I think it will depend on if the older skaters are determined enough put in the hard work and make the changes necessary to challenge for the top, and if the young guys step it up right away or flounder around for awhile first. It's hard to tell, but if I had to guess, it will be a mixed bag of old timers and up-and-comers challenging for the top spots next season, and maybe even in future seasons.

pangtongfan · Jun 1, 2011

This has already been discussed before but the only reason Ando, Czisny, and Kostner are still doing well is how horrendous the ladies field is at the moment. The mens field is anything but, even with Chan's dominance the mens field is extremely deep. And an extremely deep field generally weeds out the oldies who are already a bit past their prime, other than the extremely special ones who remained healthy or the really late bloomers.

ImaginaryPogue · Jun 1, 2011

Which oldtimers?

What will the 2011/2012 season bring us in the men?

mot

attyfan

Custom Title

Tinymavy15

Sinnerman for the win

janetfan

Match Penalty

pangtongfan

Match Penalty

ImaginaryPogue

pangtongfan

Match Penalty

gmyers

silverlake22

janetfan

Match Penalty

Tonichelle

Idita-Rock-n-Roll

mot

Joesitz (RIP)

mot

Joesitz (RIP)

let`s talk

Match Penalty

Olympia

silverlake22

pangtongfan

Match Penalty

ImaginaryPogue

Similar threads

Connect with us