JGP Volvo Cup

[vintagefigureskater]

As for the pairs, I was really impressed with Purdy/Marinaro. I don't remember them being so good. Their elements were clean, and some of them quite unique and interesting. They went for a higher level of technical difficulty than they have in the past, and their unison was pretty spot on. I even liked their programs. I did feel like some of the movement was a bit mechanical, but that is to be expected this early in the year. I think this bodes really well for the rest of their season.

ITA! They look nothing like the team who struggled so much at Canadians this year. Amazing what a difference a few months can make when you’re dealing with teenagers. And I agree also about the creativity. Alison Purkiss does some very nice work as we saw with Hole & Johnson the last two seasons. Good to see P&M attempting a triple twist, and putting down a decent triple-toe double-toe combo too. Excellent job!

I also think that a 12th place finish shouldn't automatically qualify Nam for a second assignment. This is part of what frustrates me with SC's selection strategy. Despite the fact Nam didn't skate well, there are (were) enough spots and too few Canadian men who met the selection criteria, that he could easily have his second assignment anyways. He could have a chance to redeem himself, and get over the nerves. But since SC has been declining spots, I agree completely that other skaters should be considered for events before Nam automatically get a second.

I don’t think it’s nerves – he’s (thankfully!) grown. His current ISU bio lists him as 5’. He was listed as 4’9" at Canadians. 3 inches taller, and all of it in the legs from the looks of him. Things may get worse before they get better, but that’s how it goes with the really young ones.

[nadster]

While I agree with the general thrust of what you're saying (that as Canadian Jr. Champion, he earned his two spots, regardless of his performance here), I wish I was as convinced as you about his potential.

I think that Nam has tremendous potential. The problem for me is that he has Joanne Mcleod as coach. Given her history , I don't think Nam will reach his full potential under Joanne. I don't think Joanne will fix some of the technical issues he has right now.

[ImaginaryPogue]

I agree, nadster. I've heard complaints about this toe-axel for a couple years, so it's unsurprising to see him get dinged for it now. Don't know why McLeod doesn't fix these flaws.

[SkateFiguring]

While I agree with the general thrust of what you're saying (that as Canadian Jr. Champion, he earned his two spots, regardless of his performance here), I wish I was as convinced as you about his potential.

Well, few doubt his potential. It's the realization of such potential that remains to be seen.

I have my reasons to have strong feelings about Little Nam's future success. I saved this article about him not because of the hype but mostly because I was extremely impressed with:

"My dad taught me to control my mind," said Nguyen. "Success is to focus really hard and everything you want will turn out as a success.

"It always comes from the mind. You think it and it will control everything. The body will always follow."

Few ever learn such wisdom and secret of success in their lives and Nam is very lucky he has learned and understood that from his father. The evidence and results are already out there.

He is so very young and the future is hard to predict. I look at the success factors he needs and I see he has the most important ones which are mostly innate and wouldn't be taken from him, e.g, talents, ambition, discipline, hard work, a clear head and clear goals, love of skating and performance, as well as very wise and supportive parent(s). The concerns most people seem to have are extrinsic and can be changed, e.g. coaches, techniques, training methods and location, federation and community support, etc. He and his parents are smart people with clear goals and focus so they will do what it takes. Exactly how great a success Nam will achieve I can't tell, as there are other young competitors out there with their own talents and ambitions. But I know he will go far, a little disapointing (to the fans) competition notwithstanding, as it only serves as a valuable lesson.

I always look at the whole picture and especially the mind, with whatever glimpse I can have, to assess the skaters instead of reacting to a current event or situation. That was why I had full confidence in Patrick Chan when he was the favorite laughing stock.

[SkateFiguring]

I don’t think it’s nerves – he’s (thankfully!) grown. His current ISU bio lists him as 5’. He was listed as 4’9" at Canadians. 3 inches taller, and all of it in the legs from the looks of him. Things may get worse before they get better, but that’s how it goes with the really young ones.

I am glad he didn't show up in Steve Urkel's pants!

[ImaginaryPogue]

SF - you're right - I did mean realization of potential. Nam seems like a natural performer (I loved David Pelletier's reaction to his Olympic exhibition).

[shine]

Top 5 Men's FS

1 Ryuju HINO JPN 124.61 68.91 55.70 5.82 5.39 5.79 5.39 5.46 0.00
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lk9lIbnWanE

2 He ZHANG CHN 123.12 58.88 64.24 6.54 6.18 6.50 6.36 6.54 0.00
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RojXBlzQKHI

3 Timothy DOLENSKY USA 120.25 60.33 59.92 6.07 5.89 6.07 5.93 6.00 0.00
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=riaNgg_B7z4

4 Jiaxing LIU CHN 115.52 58.18 57.34 6.04 5.46 5.71 5.64 5.82 0.00
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gkQyKw3-WuM

5 June-Hyoung LEE KOR 113.69 54.99 60.70 6.18 5.96 5.96 6.11 6.14 2.00
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RfdYT6o_fiQ

[Blink]

I really question whether Poulin/Servant should get a second assignment. (They are currently assigned to the JGP in Romania). Sixth place does not justify an automatic second assignment, IMO. There are simply too many other Canadian ice dance teams that are at least as good as they are, some of whom do not yet have assignments.

The three subs for Romania are Paradis/Ouellette, Fournier-Beaudry/Breton and Bent/MacKeen. I think Skate Canada should send Paradis/Ouellette to Romania instead of Poulin/Servant. They were four points ahead of Poulin/Servant in the free dance at the Quebec Summer competition. (Poulin/Servant did not skate the short dance there, so we can't compare short dance scores). Paradis/Ouellette are currently 4th in my list of competition scores (after the Hawegawas, Orford/Williams and Edwards/Pang), and are the only team in the top five who do not yet have a firm assignment. Poulin/Servant are 11th in my list of this season's competition scores.

Actually, I wouldn't even send Nam Nguyen to his second assignment. I wouldn't rule out a second assignment for him, because there isn't the depth in Canadian men's skating that there is in ice dance. Still, a 12th-place finish is hardly a stellar outing, and I think some others deserve the change to prove themselves before he gets a second chance. His second assignment is currently the JGP in Romania. I would send Christophe Belly-Lemelin or Garrett Gosselin instead (both alternates, and neither of whom have any firm assignments), and put Nam in to either Italy or Estonia.

Actually, Paradis and Oulette have the 9th highest score if you use an average rather than marks from only one event (the last one). Using an average is a much better and more balanced approach. The top 9 teams based on average marks for the summer competitions are 1. Nicole Orford/Thomas Williams (124.95), 2. Victoria Hasegawa / Connor Hasegawa (116.46), 3. Noa Bruser /Tim Lum (113.85), 4. Madeline Edwards / Zhao Kai Pang (109.31), 5. Caelen Dalmer / Shane Firus (109.32), 6. Mackenzie Bent / Garrett MacKeen (109.29), 7. Laurence Fournier-Beaudry / Yoan Breton (109.27), 8. Andreanne Poulin / Marc-Andre Servant (who on average are scoring what they have been scoring all summer - average was 109.24 and today their score was 108.03 with the Latvia – so within range), 9. Elisabeth Paradis / Francois-Xavier Ouellette (103.79). 4 through 8 are basically tied. Lots of potential. Difficult choices for Skate Canada.

[geoskate]

Actually, Paradis and Oulette have the 9th highest score if you use an average rather than marks from only one event (the last one). Using an average is a much better and more balanced approach.

Fine, use an average (although for most teams it's an average of two events, which is not very significant statistically). In that case send Fournier-Beaudry/Breton, also an alternate team for the JGP in Romania, or Bent/MacKeen, also an alternate team for the JGP in Romania. I don't care.

This isn't a slam against Poulin/Servant, who are a fine team. However, my point still stands. There are simply too many good junior teams in Canada to be giving a second assignment to one team before other deserving teams have received any. The only exception this year, IMO, should be if a team medals and has the potential of making the JGP Final.

I think that Skate Canada still has a bad conscience over their neglect of Poulin/Servant last season (they finished 4th at their one and only JGP event, and should have had a second event but couldn't because they weren't on the appropriate alternate list) and are overcompensating this season.

[geoskate]

Using an average is a much better and more balanced approach.

Perhaps it is, but it's not the approach that Skate Canada uses, so it's actually irrelevant although interesting. They have a 'benchmark' that skaters have to reach. They apparently only have to reach it once. They don't have to have their 'average' surpass the benchmark. If that was the case, the only teams on the JGP this season would be Orford/Williams (average of one event, but we'll continue with your analysis) and the Hasegawas.

[Blink]

Perhaps it is, but it's not the approach that Skate Canada uses, so it's actually irrelevant although interesting. They have a 'benchmark' that skaters have to reach. They apparently only have to reach it once. They don't have to have their 'average' surpass the benchmark. If that was the case, the only teams on the JGP this season would be Orford/Williams (average of one event, but we'll continue with your analysis) and the Hasegawas.

Yes and yes the sample size is small but so is 5 or 7 or 9 scores for each element or PC. An average is good for looking at rankings of teams relative to one another since it takes out bad or over rewarded performances even with only two data points. Regardliess, seven teams made the performance number of 115. Further only one team topped 120 at Latvia so all seven teams would have been in the mix at the top, assuming that the scores are directly comparable. Some would agrue this is not the case since there are different panels and in theory harder judging, internationally. However, the average was spot on for Poulin/Servant given their 108 Latvia score. Canada has an embarrassment of riches during a year when there are not enough spots to give them all experience. With the exception of Orford/Williams there is not likely to be anyone in the final, maybe Bruser/Lum who are really quite fantastic and are flying under the radar or the Hasegawa's. Last years' Novice have proven this summer so far that they hungry. Last years' team need to watch out.

[geoskate]

Yes and yes the sample size is small but so is 5 or 7 or 9 scores for each element or PC. An average is good for looking at rankings of teams relative to one another since it takes out bad or over rewarded performances even with only two data points.

I've had more time to think about this, and I actually think an average is not a good idea, for two reasons:

1. You minimize the difference between a sample size of two and a sample size of 5 or 7 or 9, but there is in fact an enormous difference in standard deviation for a sample size of two and a sample size of seven, for example. By the time the average of team's scores would have enough sample points to be statistically significant, the season would be over.

2. Secondly, an average is only significant if it is sampling a data population that is not changing with time - but in fact ice dance scores do change with time, at least the technical elements scores. The skaters and coaches learn from their earlier competitions which elements are given low levels, and fix the problems if possible. As a result, we see the scores of most teams improve as the season continues. This happens every season, to almost every team. The score that is most representative of what a team can do will be their latest score, barring major problems in a competition.

So I say, stay with Skate Canada's approach of the best result.

[Blink]

I've had more time to think about this, and I actually think an average is not a good idea, for two reasons:

1. You minimize the difference between a sample size of two and a sample size of 5 or 7 or 9, but there is in fact an enormous difference in standard deviation for a sample size of two and a sample size of seven, for example. By the time the average of team's scores would have enough sample points to be statistically significant, the season would be over.

2. Secondly, an average is only significant if it is sampling a data population that is not changing with time - but in fact ice dance scores do change with time, at least the technical elements scores. The skaters and coaches learn from their earlier competitions which elements are given low levels, and fix the problems if possible. As a result, we see the scores of most teams improve as the season continues. This happens every season, to almost every team. The score that is most representative of what a team can do will be their latest score, barring major problems in a competition.

So I say, stay with Skate Canada's approach of the best result.

Ok how about this. The current scores are the sum 44 data points for each team (mostly), over 2 SD and 2 FDs with 10 SD elements, 10 SD PCs, 14 FD elements and 10 PCs. So, in fact the standard deviations will be already be normalized because we are taking means of means for which the variation has already been removed. It is incorrect to assume that the last performance is an indicator of future performance. If we did that then every time someone had a bad day for whatever reason we would peg them at the level of competence and use that as a predictor of their future potential. We don’t so how can the opposite be true? Figure skating is an art and sport and skaters are human. They don’t always do what you hope they might and sometimes they knock your socks off. We can agree to disagree about the math and there is nothing we can do about the criteria. It certainly is interesting to debate it, though. Anything can happen.

[Binthere]

I thought it was wonderful to see the ISU finally "get their act together" a bit and actually start posting performances through their own YouTube page. Welcome to the 21st Century

That said, it was a shame to see the stands essentially empty for most of the performances.

[NorthernDancers]

I'm not sure what to believe this early in the season. i think Poulin/Servant have the disadvantage of being in the first GP, and Orford/Williams have arguably the easiest event of the year. They should medal, or that would be a bit embarrassing. That's a gift from Skate Canada. i saw Bent/McKeen in Thornhill, and they have matured a bit and look much stronger this year. Remains to be seen how their event matches competitively. Sometimes it isn't always about the team themselves, but the event and with whom they are matched. i do think Canada has a rich field, and filling up and spreading around the assignments is a good idea, with preference to those teams who will age to Senior after this season, when most things are equal. Time will tell how some of the Novice teams that moved up will do internationally. I certainly don't buy the high scores at BC Summerskate. While i have to allow for improvement, some of the scores seemed a little bumped. Looking at the scores across the Summer competitions, for example, at Senior, Van As/Shindle have the 3rd highest SD score and 2nd highest FD score, and 2nd highest combined score only because of BC. In competition with other teams at the same time, they did not score nearly as high. Did this happen at Junior too? Perhaps to ensure teams reach the JGP threshold? I think time will tell how these teams do. Skate Canada does not always back the right teams. I just hope they give as many of the teams as possible a chance. Especially when it's a little early to tell which ones will rise this year.