Pre-Season Chatter

I don't know whether this falls in The Edge or under Events, but it doesn't have to do with a specific event or series so I'll just put it here and the admins can move it if need be. I know my mind is abuzz with pre-season thoughts so I though it would be great to get a dialogue going. Who are you excited to see this season? Which rising seniors will be great? How will the new GP format affect the results? Etc, etc, etc.....

I actually have a survey going on this on my blog that you can find at the link below if you are interested http://backstagebarbie.blogspot.com/2011/08/pre-season-figure-skating-survey.html. You can send me your answers at [email protected]. I'd love to credit you so feel free to include your twitter handle, blog address, username on GoldenSkate, etc.

I'm on it! But that is quite a list of questions. It will take me a day or two to get it together. Watch for an email from "MM."

Mathman said:

I'm on it! But that is quite a list of questions. It will take me a day or two to get it together. Watch for an email from "MM."

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Please feel free to pick and choose...certainly don't feel obligated to answer them all. I look forward to hearing your thoughts!

Can we just post our answers here?

ImaginaryPogue said:

Can we just post our answers here?

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Of course! Anything that works for you is great for me. Just make sure to give me permission to post your username in my article.

You may use my user name in the article....

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1) Which skater/team are you most excited to see this season in terms of new programs, choreography, and overall performance?
Virtue/Moir, by virtue of unceasing rabid love. I’m most curious about how exactly they adapt their FD into the SD. I’ve noticed here and elsewhere people already thinking of it as an SD. Personally, I’m not quite there yet – I don’t know where the compulsory steps slip in, at the very least.

2) Who do you expect to make their biggest splash in their Senior Grand Prix debut? This can be a skater rising from the Junior ranks or a newly formed team.

Adelina Sotnikova. Well, technically, Volosozhar/Trankov, but that’s cheating.

3) What do you think about the new Grand Prix format?

Hate it with a vituperative vengeance that most furies couldn’t imagine.

4) Will Denney & Coughlin live up to their pre-season hype?

No, but they seem to think they have a shot at the podium. I think they’re both clearly working hard, though, so if they get a top ten placement, they should be proud.

5) Which individual GP event are you most excited for? (i.e. Ladies at NHK, Pairs at TEB, etc)

Men: TEB (sick)
Ladies: CoC
Pairs: NHK.
Dance: Skate Canada
Overall: Men at TEB

6) Will we have a clear favorite for the national title in ladies, men's singles, or pairs at the conclusion of the Grand Prix season? If so, who will it be?

No. Only in dance.

7) How does Evan Lysacek factor in this season, particularly if Plushenko returns to competition?

Silver at SA, off the podium at TEB. Misses the GP Final, but comes top two at the Nationals (probably wins). Top six at Worlds. But more importantly, he both eases the pressure on the American men (helping to get back that third spot) and does wonders as a team leader, a role he seems quite comfortable with.

Plushenko doesn’t compete.

8) Who has the potential to beat Virtue/Moir or Davis/White?

No one. Not this season.

9) Does it help or hurt Ice Dance as a discipline when one coaching team (Zoueva/Shpilband) dominates most of the competitions?
Great question. When Russia was dominating ice dance, there’s no doubt that it hurt the sport’s perception on this side of the pond. I do think we have to remember just how close, though, P/B were to the podium, and it’s not as if the Shibutanis are dominating. They had a phenomenal season, no doubt. Over on FSU, they react as if it’s a nuclear holocaust whenever a Z/S team does well, but at the same time, it’s never a good thing when one team/country/coaching environment dominates. The best we can hope for is that other coaches get in gear, garner a better understanding of the sport, create a better environment for their athletes (Zhulin, Morosov, I’m looking at you) and go from there.

10) How critical is the 2011-2012 in the grand scheme of things, specifically looking toward Sochi?

Ladies: Generally, not that much. Certain ladies (in my mind: Asada, Murakami, Nagasu, Leonova/Marakova) are approaching do or die time. But the existence of the RBB allows a little pause for most. Additionally, because I suspect that the true retirement for several skaters will occur after this season, this season is almost the calm before the storm. Asada needs to show jump improvement/consistency; Murakami needs to demonstrate she’s grown up (her performance in shows have done wonders there), Nagasu needs to get her competitive head together, and Leonova/Marakova need to get three spots for Russia at Worlds for the following season. They do that – they can relax. They don’t, the penultimate season before Sochi becomes nervewracking.

Men: Critical for some, not so for others. I think Chan’s strategy for the next three years is like an elongated version of Tarasova/Kulik’s strategy: consistently increase the difficulty to near impossible levels, then take a step back and ace Sochi. I think this season is going to be pretty important for this plan more than the next two, but conversely is the one where he has the least to lose.

As a whole, it’s definitely a critical season for the four Japanese men. I think it’ll determine whether or not Takahashi continues competing, if Kozuka can close the gap with Chan, if Oda can stave off Hanyu.

Dance: Super critical. If one of the newer teams don’t make a huge leap forward to close the gap between them and the Canton quartet, it’ll be like being down by four runs at the bottom of the ninth. Simply speaking, they need to make their move and do it now. But not just that. If they’re the third team in their country, they need to make an argument they should be second (Riazanova/Tkachenko, Paul/Islam), otherwise by Sochi they’ll be like Weaver/Poje in 2010. If they’re second, they NEED to make that move on first. And if they’re first, they damn well better cement that. If they don’t..... well, see Belbin/Agosto. It’ll also give us a hint just how hungry V/M are to continue competing. I’ve read people doubting their presence in Sochi, whereas I sorta feel the opposite.

Pairs: Generally, not so much. It’s critical for Kavaguti/Smirnov and Bazarova/Larionov, otherwise they’ll be relegated by Sochi (or even absent, especially with the depth of talent we see). It’s necessary for the Canadian pairs to get that third slot, but intriguingly, it’ll only be necessary for the team absent as I suspect that by the end of this season, we’ll have our top two for Sochi if we don’t get that third slot. It’s critical for Zhang/Zhang to reassert themselves as podium threats in the absence of Pang/Tong.

11) Who will be this year's Alissa Czisny and come out of nowhere to have a stellar season?

Javier Fernandez.

12) I know it's not nice to think about, but who do you expect to bomb this season?

Recontextualizing the question: which skaters am I most concerned about?

Cappellinni/Lannotte: Rippon left Morosov because he felt he wasn’t getting enough of his time. Fernandez left Morosov because he felt that Amodio was clearly his coach’s favourite. Ilynikh/Katasalpov left Zhulin because they felt unprepared for their senior debut season and that his artistic/non-coaching jobs took too much time away from them. Given the hype surrounding I/K and the goal for Sochi gold, you wonder if CapLan get left behind. I adore them; so last season was rather frustrating for me, and I don’t think Morosov will improve things much.

Kevin Reynolds/Andre Rogozine: The second Canadian spot is truly up for grabs. Rogozine is adding the quad and has seemed to improve the PCS side of things – he’s definitely going for it. With Reynolds, you’ve gotta wonder, though. I just don’t think his coaching situation will improve, and consequently, neither will he. I really wish McLeod would just let him skate.

Lawrence/Sweigers: They’re doing an interesting thing, focusing on improving the PCS/GOE side (it appears), whereas the other two Canadian pairs are focusing on PCS and Base Value. Moore-towers/Moscovitch are going for a 3t-3t sequence and 3S, whereas Duhamel/Radford go for flips and lutzes. I’m not convinced that L/S are gonna make up the ground they need to if they don’t up the difficulty.

13) If the World Team Trophy does take place, (assuming US, Canada, France, Russia, China, and Japan compete) who will win?

Russia. Russia. Also Russia. Perhaps Russia. Three disciplines with three spots? Top six in every event at Worlds? Even if the RBB don’t get to go. US second, Canada and Japan battling for third.

14) I know we've debated this for years but I'm going to ask it anyway. Which 2 ladies, men, or pairs can earn a 3rd spot in their discipline for the US at Worlds?

Ladies: Czisny and Nagasu. But Nagasu will miss Worlds again.
Men: Lysacek and Dornbush
Pairs: None.

Pogue, your answers are wonderful and give me a lot to think about. The original questions are wonderfully thought-provoking too, Barbie.

I especially love your evaluation of Lysacek as a potential competitor this year and as a team leader. I do hope things work out for him, because it will benefit us greatly as well.

Of course, I hope you're wrong in your predictions for the U.S. ladies this year, but then I'm sure you hope you're wrong, too.

For my two cents, one thing that saves the Zoueva-Shpilband group from being a total monopoly is that the skaters don't all represent the same country. So it's not like the old Soviet-Russian days, when a single country had a lock on two entire disciplines.

Lysacek: I think it's a role he does quite naturally.

The US ladies: I hope Nagasu, Wagner, Czisny and Zawadski make the world team. Barring that..... it's hard. No one skate is HUGELY better than another. I like the idea of a Czisny/Zawadski world team. Czisny because I want her to win a medal, and doing so in France to Edith Piaf (her SP) would be awesome (right now, I want a Kostner-Czisny-Asada podium, in any order). And I want Zawadski to get a jump on the RBB (and mainly, I want to see progress now that she's away from Tom Z, and Santee/Krall seem like the ones who could allow for that in a way Tom Z couldn't). I do think they could possibly pull it off, but I'm not betting the farm just yet. I hope Lysacek returning inspires Nagasu to work hard, but work ethic doesn't always coexist with natural talent (I worked a lot harder in French class to get a B than in history to get an A, for example). I think a competitive Nagasu would be world champion someday. And there's something about Wagner that I like.

Zoueva/Shpilband: I agree. That and it doesn't seem so federation-driven.

Unfortunately, IP, I agree with your comment about work ethic/natural talent. My example: Chris Bowman....

Pogue, another fine analysis, as good as the one you did on GP assignments.

For my two cents, one thing that saves the Zoueva-Shpilband group from being a total monopoly is that the skaters don't all represent the same country. So it's not like the old Soviet-Russian days, when a single country had a lock on two entire disciplines.



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People who only think of skating competitions as the rivarly between different countries may think this is better. But I'd point out that when the American ladies swept the world podium in 1991, Kristi, Harding, Kerrigan all were extremely different skaters. Who emphasized different things. Same goes for Michelle, Tara, Sarah and Sasha. There were intense rivalries there, and even differences in what the skaters emphasized etc.

I think the same can be pointed out for Russian pair rivalries. G/G and M/D who had that memorable fight in 94 for Olympic gold. Two very different styles. And who can forget the bitterness between Yagudin and Plushenko! Or the drama Grishuk and Platov had with their rivals U/Z, and then K/O. And yes some differences in style there too.

While there are some differences in individual styles between the S/Z teams. Its just not as great as the above mentioned. The fact of the matter is like all coaches S/Z have a formula and things they value over other things. And their athletes then have similar strengths and weakenesses. Seeing the same kinds of programs (and really S/Z's programs are formulatic isn't very fun either).

Not to mention what kind of fun ice rivalry is it when the top teams all train together and love each other dearly. And once again with the same coaches for both, can the coaches really truly give 100% to both to strategize to get one team on the top. How memorable was it when G/P left Linchuk and then came in 1997 with those kick butt programs (love their OD that year and than that Free Dance)

Not saying that S/Z aren't great coaches and V/M and D/W aren't great teams. But I don't think domination of the sport by one group of coaches, is a good thing either.

(One thing I remember to compare gymnastics again) that was great about Soviet gymnastics which is they'd actually have their athletes bring in personal coaches. So their athletes would have different styles, different strengths and weaknesses and that led to some real diversity)

I'm not sure I quite agree, bekalc.

1. One of my favourite things about the rivalry between Davis/White and Virtue/Moir is it's utter lack of acrimony. I don't derive pleasure from the divaish rivalries between G/P and U/Z or K/O - especially since there's an aspect of federation meddling in both (Usova/Zhulin in particular seemed to suffer). And I certainly don't get much out of the Harding/Kerrigan rivalry. The fact that D/W and V/M simply leave the rivalry on the ice is a tribute to the four of them and the environment Z/S have created in Canton. Hell, that Charlie can date another ice dancer (Tanith Belbin) and not have it be the source of tabloid-esque tongues wagging is appealing.

2. I disagree that the Shpilband teams have similar strengths and weaknesses as well - certainly no more so than the Russian teams of the past. Compare the FDs of the 08/09 season, for example. "Samson and Delilah," "Great Gig in the Sky" and "Cinema Paradisio" are actually quite different. And even focusing on the specific strengths you see a world of difference.

3. V/M and D/W seem to think their coaches can give them 100%, so I see no reason to doubt their belief given their historic successes over the past few years.

ImaginaryPogue said:

I'm not sure I quite agree, bekalc.

1. One of my favourite things about the rivalry between Davis/White and Virtue/Moir is it's utter lack of acrimony. I don't derive pleasure from the divaish rivalries between G/P and U/Z or K/O - especially since there's an aspect of federation meddling in both (Usova/Zhulin in particular seemed to suffer). And I certainly don't get much out of the Harding/Kerrigan rivalry. The fact that D/W and V/M simply leave the rivalry on the ice is a tribute to the four of them and the environment Z/S have created in Canton. Hell, that Charlie can date another ice dancer (Tanith Belbin) and not have it be the source of tabloid-esque tongues wagging is appealing.

2. I disagree that the Shpilband teams have similar strengths and weaknesses as well - certainly no more so than the Russian teams of the past. Compare the FDs of the 08/09 season, for example. "Samson and Delilah," "Great Gig in the Sky" and "Cinema Paradisio" are actually quite different. And even focusing on the specific strengths you see a world of difference.

3. V/M and D/W seem to think their coaches can give them 100%, so I see no reason to doubt their belief given their historic successes over the past few years.

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D/W and V/M do have different strengths and weakeness. In that V/M are a much tidier team. But to be frank a lot of S/Z's teams have tidyiness issues from the female side, and so to be quite frank, a lot of V/M's strengths in that area have to do with previous coaches.

However, there's formulat to what S/Z does. In that he until last year primarly had his teams stick to certain styles. For example V/M stuck with sweet and romantic for how long. And D/W "intense". And both teams lack frankly a real sexual passion/heat IMO.

Now don't get me wrong V/m do have a lovely romantic chemistry that I quite like (so I'll let them be in that) and I can sense heat from Scott (the lack of heat IS more on Tessa's end). Scott no doubt is capable of it. But D/W really don't have that kind of passion between them. And please lets not even get into the Shibs when it comes to that area.

I could point out voidy choregraphy except for the Indian OD isn't really there. Oh I see great tricks, and acrobatic moves...But... Once again D/W and V/M are great teams, but it would be darn nice to see a different from of Ice Dance, back in. Ie. I miss the utter passion that I use to see with A/P's for example Romeo and Juliet. Or G/P's gorgeous 1997 free dance. And the drama/voidyness that is not there now.

And I'm sorry I don't fully believe coaches can give 100%. I mean I have no doubt S/Z do their best for each pair. But there's something to frankly be said for the fact that there comes a point where a coach will look at their skaters nearest rivals and think what can we do to set ourselves apart from them. What is this team missing that we can show we have. And I don't see how this can be done with S/Z. And it needs to be done for the athletes to get to the next level.

Once again, its not that S/Z are bad coaches, or I don't like their teams by anymeans. But what I'm saying is every coach has an idea of what their sport should be, and will emphasize that in training over other things. So when you have all the top athletes trained by the same coach, it leads to absolutely a real lack of diversity.

Yeah, I disagree.

Great analysis IP and great questions Barbie. Thanks!

1) Which skater/team are you most excited to see this season in terms of new programs, choreography, and overall performance?

Yuzuru Hanyu. He's one of the most naturally talented male skaters I've ever seen. He should make worlds this year.

2) Who do you expect to make their biggest splash in their Senior Grand Prix debut? This can be a skater rising from the Junior ranks or a newly formed team.

Easy one. Sotnikova.

3) What do you think about the new Grand Prix format?

Horrible.

4) Will Denney & Coughlin live up to their pre-season hype?

I think most of the hype is coming from the USFSA rather than fans or skaters, but to answer the question, no, I don't think they will live up to the hype.

5) Which individual GP event are you most excited for? (i.e. Ladies at NHK, Pairs at TEB, etc)

Men at Trophée Eric Bompard. That competition will be brutal.


6) Will we have a clear favorite for the national title in ladies, men's singles, or pairs at the conclusion of the Grand Prix season? If so, who will it be?

No. Totally up in the air.

7) How does Evan Lysacek factor in this season, particularly if Plushenko returns to competition?

I expect Lysacek to do well. He will surprise by making the Final. Given his consistency, he will probably finish in the top two at nationals and make the world team.

8) Who has the potential to beat Virtue/Moir or Davis/White?

No one this season, but I expect the Shibs to be in range very soon.

9) Does it help or hurt Ice Dance as a discipline when one coaching team (Zoueva/Shpilband) dominates most of the competitions?

As long as the domination is legitimate (and I think ice dancing under CoP is a little more solid in that regard), then I think it's OK. Clearly others will start (and some already have) to copy/follow what Z/S do well, so if you aren't a huge fan of their approach to ice dance, then you will probably continue to be unhappy for years to come.

10) How critical is the 2011-2012 in the grand scheme of things, specifically looking toward Sochi?

I think this season will be an important one for both the men and the women.

For the guys, there is a lot of talk about quads other than the toe loop and salchow. It will be interesting to see which men are able to raise the bar on the technical side. If the bar does get raised over the coming seasons, Sochi will be insane.

For the ladies, I think this is a crucial year for the Americans. Will Czisny be able to continue her success? (Maybe, but I have my doubts.) Will Nagasu finally get over her mental struggles and be as good of a competitor as she is a skater? (I hope so.) Things are so fluid for the American women right now that it's hard to predict who will be at the Olympics in Sochi. This season should give us a better idea of who will be in the picture in 2014.

11) Who will be this year's Alissa Czisny and come out of nowhere to have a stellar season?

Armin Mahbanoozadeh

12) I know it's not nice to think about, but who do you expect to bomb this season?

Adam Rippon

13) If the World Team Trophy does take place, (assuming US, Canada, France, Russia, China, and Japan compete) who will win?

USA or Russia. Canada gets the bronze.

14) I know we've debated this for years but I'm going to ask it anyway. Which 2 ladies, men, or pairs can earn a 3rd spot in their discipline for the US at Worlds?

Ladies: Nagasu, Czisny
Men: Abbott, Lysacek
Pairs: Not happening

1) Which skater/team are you most excited to see this season in terms of new programs, choreography, and overall performance?
Unusual number of high ranking ice dancing teams broke up at or around the conclusion of the 2010-2011 season. So I am excited to see all the promising newly formed ice dance teams: Gilles / Poirier; Chock / Bates; Hubbell / Donohue; and Samuelson / Gilles.

2) Who do you expect to make their biggest splash in their Senior Grand Prix debut? This can be a skater rising from the Junior ranks or a newly formed team.
Like many of you foresee, my vote goes to Sotnikova.

3) What do you think about the new Grand Prix format?
I'm not too crazy about the reduced roster. I'd like to be able to see many more skaters being able to participate in GPs, thought I understand each federations' financial considerations.

4) Will Denney & Coughlin live up to their pre-season hype?
I doubt it. While they maybe able to put out bigger and more consistent jump/throw elements, they'll inevitably lack unison due to the short partnership duration. Also I personally much rather preferred Caitlin's elegant lines/presentation compared to Cadee's.

5) Which individual GP event are you most excited for? (i.e. Ladies at NHK, Pairs at TEB, etc)
The very first event of the very first GP! It means the men's short program at Skate America. My choice here isn't so much about the merit of each event more as my need for figure skating fix! 2011-2012 season can't come soon enough.

6) Will we have a clear favorite for the national title in ladies, men's singles, or pairs at the conclusion of the Grand Prix season? If so, who will it be?
None of the current crop of US skaters have had established him/herself as a clear #1. Also we don't have enough information of pairs either.

7) How does Evan Lysacek factor in this season, particularly if Plushenko returns to competition?
As of now, Plushenko does not participate in GP, so he is a non-factor there. There is a good chance Evan will make it to the GP final as well as to Worlds.

Evan comes across as a methodical person who establishes a clear goal for himself and diligently pursue it. He will not come back to competitive career without ample preparations and clear plan of actions.

8) Who has the potential to beat Virtue/Moir or Davis/White?
None at this season, but I expect the Shibs and Riazanova / Tkachenko of Russia to competitively challenge the duopoly by Sochi in 2013-2014.

9) Does it help or hurt Ice Dance as a discipline when one coaching team (Zoueva/Shpilband) dominates most of the competitions?
Contrary to some who voiced their concerns, I actually think it helps other teams becoming more competitive. Ice dance as a discipline goes though different trend/fad just like any other disciplines.

I consider the Canton team to have been most successfully able to adapt and exploit the COP system. Specifically, the Canton school of ice dancing emphasizes the power and speed, i.e., blindingly fast twizzles, and intricate and innovative lifts to milk maximum points out of TES and PCS. Collorary to this philosophy is their tendency to go for simpler costumes (you will see what I mean when you see the 2011 world ice dancing podium), and younger age of the ice dancers (emphasis on athleticism works better with younger skaters).

I presume the Canton sweep at the 2011 worlds was a wake up call for European and especially Russians federations. Already I see more innovative and complex lifts on the Russian top teams (via Russian test skating events) to be more competitive/current vis a vis the Canton teams. Yes, comeptition is a good thing! :thumbsup:

10) How critical is the 2011-2012 in the grand scheme of things, specifically looking toward Sochi?
I think it is critical for ladies, for this is the only discipline without clear front runner(s). Men has Chan, Ice dance has the Canton Duo, and pairs have Russian, Chinese, and German teams.

This will be the year we will see how/if Sotnikova transition into the senior scene successfully or not. We will also see whether Mao has successfully able to fix her jumping/edge problems. Finally, we will also see if Kanako Murakami and American usual suspects could assert her suprimacy

11) Who will be this year's Alissa Czisny and come out of nowhere to have a stellar season?
Although they are not exactly unknown, I expect Riazanova / Tkachenko to have a steller season. This is the season for them to establish their suprimacy. I am not surprised that they make it to the GP final as well as becoming the number 1 team in Russia. They are not only technically proficient, but they are also hungry due to being upstaged by I/K the last season (R/T won the silver medal at Russian nationals but was unable to go to worlds due to I/K placing higher at Europeans).

R/T appear to have good solid programs and are better prepared then their rivals as far as I could glimpse at the recent Russian test skating events. I have yet to see I/K lived up to hype; and I am not surprised that I/K, S/B, and Monko/Khaliavin fight out the second and third places in Russia among themselves.

12) I know it's not nice to think about, but who do you expect to bomb this season?
Mao Asada. If we do not see marked improvement in her edge issues I enumerated above, her prospect for Sochi will be considerably dimmed. Mao has a tendency to be either spectacular or spectacularly "bombed."

13) If the World Team Trophy does take place, (assuming US, Canada, France, Russia, China, and Japan compete) who will win?
Russia (obvious geographic advantage; I'll abstain from saying anything about politics, if any), USA second, and Canada third.

14) I know we've debated this for years but I'm going to ask it anyway. Which 2 ladies, men, or pairs can earn a 3rd spot in their discipline for the US at Worlds?
Don't know and don't care. There are no clear front runner among men; none of the ladies are consistent/solid performers. And let's face it, the US pair teams are not up to par with the world first rate teams.

ImaginaryPogue said:

You may use my user name in the article....
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11) Who will be this year's Alissa Czisny and come out of nowhere to have a stellar season?

Javier Fernandez.

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pats self on back