Potential Sochi contenders: Ladies

Liza just skated her FS at a Moscow test skate:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jfhTTKLyF_8

Her skating skills and presentation look a LOT better than last year, good for her! I especially like the improvement in her arms and posture. But her jumps actually look worse than last year. Many of them look shaky in the air and on landing, though she obviously still has a really good pop when she gets the timing right. Maybe she's working through a growth spurt. She looks a lot more "womanly" this year. Adelina doesn't seem to have participated in this test skate, too bad.

Well...the figure skating world, as documented by various forums, has certainly had more than 3 world wars.

feraina said:

Liza just skated her FS at a Moscow test skate:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jfhTTKLyF_8

Her skating skills and presentation look a LOT better than last year, good for her! I especially like the improvement in her arms and posture. But her jumps actually look worse than last year. Many of them look shaky in the air and on landing, though she obviously still has a really good pop when she gets the timing right. Maybe she's working through a growth spurt. She looks a lot more "womanly" this year. Adelina doesn't seem to have participated in this test skate, too bad.

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IA. I don't like those puffy sleeves on Liza. They break her line imo.

christinaskater said:

I do hope Yu-Na would defend the Olympic title to make her tie with Katarina! That would be amazing!

Mao Asada is definitely going to be one of the major contenders for the title.

Miki Ando- should she stay as well.

Adelina Sotnikova- is one of the best skaters I have ever seen on the Junior stage- so exquisite and she has it all! She is a major Olympic gold medal contender for me.

Mirai Nagasu- Should she pull things together- she also can win. 2011-2012 is a crucial year to establish herself on the senior circuit and really live up to her potential.

Alissa Czisny- She is one of the best for me and should she stay who knows.

Carolina Kostner- she is getting better and better in her artistry! Jump difficulty could increase a bit.

Courtney Hicks- this girl is special! Hope she could live up to her potential.

Kanako Murakami- If her presentation really matures and she improves further her artistry and difficulty of jumps then she is also going to be one of the skaters to watch out for.

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I wouldn't bet on Alissa or Carolina being at Sochi at all. And if they are, I wouldn't bet on them being medal contenders. I hope Alissa stays around as long as possible because she is one of my favorites. But you have to question if her jump difficulty will really be enough to make her an Olympic contender in 2014 - and that assuming it doesn't deteriorate.

Carolina - I agree she has improved her artistry but it wasn't a weakness to begin with. I don't pay enough attention to her to be the best judge. I suppose she could keep going and finally have her Olympic moment late the way Joannie Rochette lives. But I think she is benefiting from a weak European ladies field and she still has consistency issues. Plus she has been struggling with injuries.

Mao - I sincerely hope she is not only around for Sochi but that she is one of the gold medal favorites. But the way things have been going for her I don't see how anyone can say she will definitely be one of the medal contenders. Still, it is one of my great hopes.

Yuna - it all depends on what she herself decides to do and whether she is able to come back from a break, should she choose be there. I agree - I would LOVE to see her try to defend her gold. I would be a treat for fans.

Mirai. I really want her to step her game and be an Olympic medal contender. But first she should collect a few more international medals on the way.. she has a long way to go. But she's the one I'm rooting for the most.

I hope that Agnes and at least one or two of the younger Americans can also step up to the top but it's a hope for now.

All of these Vancouver vets will have to contend with Adelina, Elizaveta and Kanako. I like all three of these girls but I still think the sophistication and over all ice presence needs work. Adelina is an amazing competitor and her lines are very lovely but she still leaves me cold. Obviously, she is so young it's understandable. But regardless of the reason I still have to warm up to her. Two and half years before Vancouver, I think over all Mao and Yuna were more impressive than Adelina and Elizaveta are this stage. I expect to see both of those Russian girls at Sochi and maybe even be the favorites but there are bigger question marks over them than there were over Mao and Yuna. Mostly because of the puberty issue and because it remains to be seen how they fare at the senior level. Still, you can bet the vets are looking over their shoulders at them!!

I don't think Yu-Na can win another title. She seems to be losing steam/motivation. I could see Mao winning though if she fixes her jump technique in time, or Mirai if she stops being such a headcase. ITA Kanako Murakami is another one to watch. It's hard to say about the Russian babies as I haven't seen them much, and a lot can happen in three years. I'll reserve judgment on them until this season is over. IMO Kostner or Csizny will not win an OGM. Kostner could be on the podium in Sochi, if she does not retire before then, but I don't see Csizny on an Olympic podium ever. I wouldn't even say she's a sure bet to GO to the Olympics for the United States in 2014, due to her inconsistency, and possible retirement before then. Two question marks are the 'older' Russian ladies, Makarova and Leonova. If they can hold off the 'babies' they could be medal contenders, although I don't see them winning in any universe.

I forgot about Agnes Zawadski until I saw someone else mention her, but I think it's too early to judge her. I'll wait to judge her medal potential until after this season is over, too.

ImaginaryPogue said:

Why the Japanese, evangeline?

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Just a hunch....the depth of talent in Japanese ladies skating is difficult to ignore.

I love Adelina, she is a skater who reminds me of Yu-Na Kim!

Both are gorgeous, regal (queen like!), goes for the triple-triples and has excellent overall elements! She is one of the favorites for that gold!

Man, I would love to see Mao attack Sochi with 2 triple axels and a lights out performance from Mao! She is so amazing!
Miki is also incredible! Would love to see her but it still depends!

Kanako is definitely one of the one's to watch out for! When her artistry matures- I reckon she is going to be a powerhouse!

I think this is the year that would be very crucial for Mirai! She has everything and I think she will deliver! She is one of the best in this current generation.

Wouldn't it be amazing for Yu-Na to tie Katarina's 2 Olympic gold medals! That would be the coolest!:thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::

Risa Shoji is also very good! She is doing 3-3-2 now!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cpdp11N8hYg

Ah yes, Risa Shoji. I like her, she has a dignified and understated quality. Her jumps are as yet on the smaller side and she had some tilts in the above performance, but she landed them well. Like evangeline, I also believe it will be a Russian or Japanese lady winning gold in Sochi. From the Japanese, I hope it is Risa or Mao Asada. From the Russians, it would be great if either Adelina Sotnikova or Elizaveta Tuktamysheva won, and their rivalry will be interesting to watch. It could be someone else, of course, but these four girls will be the ones I will be following.

I don't think YuNa will put herself in the chase. There are others whom I would be thrilled for if they made it onto the podium, but I see the above as the current most likely "picks".

I'm not sold on Risa. Her jump technique is not sound at all. Her jumps are often borderline underrotated.

I wouldn't forget Julia Lipnitskaya....she'll be eligible for 2014:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ou3VrEs91P8&feature=channel_video_title

oleada said:

I'm not sold on Risa. Her jump technique is not sound at all. Her jumps are often borderline underrotated.

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Can someone else more knowledgeable than I comment on her technique? You're right in that they might be close to underrotated as they are small, but the technique looked OK to me. And as she grows and strengthens the jumps may get bigger, or at least that's what I'm hoping.

oleada said:

I wouldn't forget Julia Lipnitskaya....she'll be eligible for 2014:

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Definitely didn't forget the girl who can do the amazing backwards I-spin I've only ever seen it done by her.

Julia Lipnitskaya is some kind of skater but she doesn't look older then about 13. She could grow 5 inches over the next couple years and lose all her jumps. You just never know.

oleada said:

I'm not sold on Risa. Her jump technique is not sound at all. Her jumps are often borderline underrotated.

I wouldn't forget Julia Lipnitskaya....she'll be eligible for 2014:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ou3VrEs91P8&feature=channel_video_title

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And with a name that combines Julia Soldatova + Tara Lipinski + Maria Butyrskaya/ Irina Slutskaya! (Sounds cool)

I watched her and she is very good as well.

oleada said:

I'm not sold on Risa. Her jump technique is not sound at all. Her jumps are often borderline underrotated.

I wouldn't forget Julia Lipnitskaya....she'll be eligible for 2014:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ou3VrEs91P8&feature=channel_video_title

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Risa is a little like Mirai when it comes to jumps, the technique itself is not bad, she's just prone to under-rotating her triples. That being said, she's usually pretty consistent in landing them, and is capable of landing big combos like 3s-3t-2t and 2a-3t, both of which she got credited for at this competition. Her URs are something she'll have to work on and be aware of, but I wouldn't say she has really bad or worrisome technique/jumps. For example, the technique and jumps of Vanessa Lam and Yasmin Siraj concern me more. Also Risa is very solid on all the other aspects of her skating, so she can afford to really crack down on getting those jumps around if she continues to get dinged with URs.

I really like Risa Shoji. But her tendency to UR her jumps is an issue that may get better or worse as she becomes older. Also, if she's similar to Mirai in terms of jumps, it isn't really a good thing because it means that she will tend to UR a lot whenever she becomes nervous, which seems like the case now.

evangeline said:

Just a hunch....the depth of talent in Japanese ladies skating is difficult to ignore.

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You know, I really question where this idea comes from that the upcoming depth in Japan is THAT strong.

Ando and Suzuki are both on the older end of the scale here. Suzuki is 26, Ando 23. Personally, I'd be surprised to see either of them stick it out until Sochi.

Asada's always a threat. This season will definitely be "do or die" for her - show some improvement on jumps, keep the 3A and maybe attempt the 3-3.

Murakami looks like she's maturing quite steadily. Shoji is still VERY junior. Imai's a complete wildcard.

ImaginaryPogue said:

You know, I really question where this idea comes from that the upcoming depth in Japan is THAT strong.

Ando and Suzuki are both on the older end of the scale here. Suzuki is 26, Ando 23. Personally, I'd be surprised to see either of them stick it out until Sochi.

Asada's always a threat. This season will definitely be "do or die" for her - show some improvement on jumps, keep the 3A and maybe attempt the 3-3.

Murakami looks like she's maturing quite steadily. Shoji is still VERY junior. Imai's a complete wildcard.

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Idk, Shoji doesn't seem all that junior to me, her skating is quite mature for a 15 year old IMO and her PCS are always at the top of the pack at the junior internationals she's competed in. And she's not super tiny and young looking. Idk, for someone who just turned 15, I'd say she's pretty sophisticated and, based on the videos from Brisbane, she's also grown up a lot since last season. She's not eligible for senior ISU championships this season anyway, so she has time.

As for Kanako, her new exhibition number is gorgeous and grown up, but usually she always goes for cutesy in her actual programs, and if that is true of her programs this season, she might still seem juniorish. It's nice to know she's now capable of sophisticated, mature skating, but that doesn't mean she'll incorporate it into her actual competitive programs (though I'm hoping she will). Cutesy works for her, the judges eat it up & give her good scores for it, and she's still young and looks young so that she could get away with those kinds of programs for another year or two if that's what she and her coach/choreographer decide they want to do. I would like to see her branch out and show this new side to her skating she's developed, I'm just not sure it will happen. Mirai is 18 and still channeling cutesy in her programs.

miki88 said:

I really like Risa Shoji. But her tendency to UR her jumps is an issue that may get better or worse as she becomes older. Also, if she's similar to Mirai in terms of jumps, it isn't really a good thing because it means that she will tend to UR a lot whenever she becomes nervous, which seems like the case now.

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Risa looks like a mini version of Shizuka Arakawa. Does anybody got that feeling? The way she stroke and glide, as well as the deep knee bend before jumps take off looks exactly like Shizuka. I could be wrong but maybe bc she looks tall and langly for her age.

Hard to tell who will be in prime condition, physically and mentally in 3 years. Right now the Russian babies def has age on their side. Older vet like Mao, Miki, Marai , Kostner have experiences but will they be able to keep the tech on par with younger skaters is a big question mark.

I mean, I don't know, Mirai's not doing "cutesy" anymore in this years' programs, the tango and Spartacus...