Lysacek not ready to commit to Skate America - Eyes 2014 Olympics
- Thread starter gsk8
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Interesting! If Lysacek skates at the next Olympics, that will surely be another showdown between him and Plushenko. That could be VERY interesting, especially with Plushenko competing on his home ice. I just hope Lysacek manages to include a quad in his long program, as that might be needed this time around in order to defend his OGM -- perhaps even to medal.
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Yes, but I still think he needs to fit a quad into his long program - at some appropriate moment.
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A showdown for 6th or 7th place, maybe.
Let's be realistic here. Lysacek and Plushenko will both be pushing 30 by the time Sochi looms its head. If (and IF) their bodies can take the stress of competitive training in 2014, they'll almost definitely be eclipsed by the younger generations coming up. Both Chan's and Kozuka's performances in Moscow deserved to crush anything Lysacek and Plushenko did in Vancouver. Plus there are some very talented up-and-coming young'uns on the horizon--e.g. Yuzuru Hanyu, etc--who not only have the big (or bigger) jumps, but also better skating skills and will probably be in physical peak shape by 2014.
And I really doubt Lysacek can get a good quad in 2014 when he couldn't even get a consistent non-UR one in his physical prime. I do think he has a chance to make the Olympic team, however, especially if the US men manage to get their 3 spots back.
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And as we all know, Evan MUST have a quad to win.
The playing field has shifted significantly since Vancouver. A man may not have needed a quad to win in Vancouver, but I would think the results of Moscow show otherwise for the next coming seasons.
Lysacek isn't stupid. He's surely seen what Chan and the others produced in Moscow and he knows that he needs at least a quad in his LP to be competitive, and has thus acted accordingly in planning a quad. Though that might not even be enough.
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Math, you crack me up.
I thought it was interesting that Evan talked about he was doing the math to see what was needed for his program. Any other guy would say he was training hard or upping his workouts or whatever. I'm sure Evan is doing that too, being the hard worker he is, but that statement says something about the way he looks at things. It also says that he steers a lot of his planning; he doesn't just leave it to his coach.
I don't know what kind of chance he stands in Sochi. As Evangeline and others point out, the world hasn't stood still since Vancouver, and a lot of the young'uns (and I hope Takahashi!) will be way ahead of Evan by that time. Still, it will be fun to watch Evan try. And there's always the element of surprise, the ice being slippery and all.
ETA: And another thing: unless the other American guys get way better in the next week and a half, Evan stands a good chance of being the top-ranked American. That has to be good for us out there in the world, if he gets on the podium for any international competitions.
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Lysacek with a quad could get a lot more points than Kozuka but probably not as much as Chan with three quads. I know Lysacek took great inspiration from Tomas Verner winning over Chan in Cup of Russia when Chan did fell and then Zayaked and Vernere didn't do a quad but slavishly copied Lysaceks Olympic LP jump layout. Could Lysacek so outscore Kozuka that he could have beaten him but maybe Chan as well? That presumes that Lysacek would do a quad but I feel Lysacek returning would be much more like Miki Ando with her doing 5 out of 7 jumps in the 2nd half of her FS in Moscow. I beleive Lysacek would not do a quad but maybe open with a jump. Maybe a triple axel triple toe or a triple axel triple jump sequence and then do a 7 jumps in the 2nd half of his program. Maybe 6 or 7.
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And as we all know, Evan MUST have a quad to win.
I know evangeline covered it, but if you scored the Vancouver Olympics with the current rules, Plushenko wins.
One thing worth mentioning is that he could be used in the team event as opposed to singles. He'd be a terrific anchor for a team (see the World Team trophy) and I think that would relieve pressure on the other American men. Assuming that it's the big six (the GP nations), only Japan and maybe Russia could split the singles like that and still be competitive (with the note that Japan isn't competitive in neither dance nor pairs).
I'm not sure I agree with your edited-in-comment Olympia. If you're referring to the world standings, Lysacek is 18th - Abbott is 8th, Rippon 12th (the perils of not competing). If you're referring to a more general "top man," I'm not sure that's a good thing.
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I honestly don't believe Plushenko will be a factor, at age 31, in Sochi. Evan being much younger could be a factor. His competition will be Patrick Chan, Kozuka and other Japanese skaters (plus the young guns in the USA at that time). I would rather see any of these complete skaters (not Evan) who are younger win the OGM in Sochi.
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Assumption one: Kozuka won't try to do more than one quad
This is probably false. He and Chan both had a major error at Worlds on the 3A, he in the short, Chan in the long. He lost to Chan by 22 points. I don't think he's aiming for second place. Additionally, we know that the Japanese field is RIDICULOUSLY strong and he's likely feeling pressure from Hanyu (who does insane combinations/sequences in shows) at the very least, if not from Takahashi and Oda. So Kozuka is probably gonna up his game. As is the rest of the field.
Assumption two: Lysacek's goal is to beat an error ridden field
This is also probably false. Certainly, he's looking at this field and thinking "seven of the top ten men had quads. An eighth one tried it. Five of the men landed two quads across their programs. If I want to be competitive for the top of the podium, I need a quad." Backloading seven jumping passes? Of course, he still has to do three spins and two footwork sequences, so you think he'll frontload them and backload that many? There's a reason people don't backload everything, and that's because you're tired by the end of the program. But lets say he backloads seven of eight jumping passes. The benefit he gets from that? Well, in the free skate at worlds, most guys did five backloaded passes. The minimum was three. So how much bonus does he get over the field from doing say four more backloaded passes than his competitors? About three points. Not insignificant. But if he's backloading six to their five - well, more like half a point. Of course, that supposes that he doesn't pop any jumps in the back half AND that his competitors make mistakes (if Kim hadn't singled the flip, but did a triple, she wins. She does a double, she wins overall). Of course, you're also ignoring the fact that Lysacek is not Ando. Or more specifically, Lori Nichol is not Nicolai Morosov - he of the empty backloading choreography. Nichol respects things like transitions and choreography, and I doubt she'd create a program like that.
Assumption three: that Lysacek doesn't care about the quad
Likely false. I think he wants it. That he doesn't want to compete at Skate America unless completely ready is a sign of his general competitiveness.
Assumption one: Kozuka won't try to do more than one quad
This is probably false. He and Chan both had a major error at Worlds on the 3A, he in the short, Chan in the long. He lost to Chan by 22 points. I don't think he's aiming for second place. Additionally, we know that the Japanese field is RIDICULOUSLY strong and he's likely feeling pressure from Hanyu (who does insane combinations/sequences in shows) at the very least, if not from Takahashi and Oda. So Kozuka is probably gonna up his game. As is the rest of the field.
Assumption two: Lysacek's goal is to beat an error ridden field
This is also probably false. Certainly, he's looking at this field and thinking "seven of the top ten men had quads. An eighth one tried it. Five of the men landed two quads across their programs. If I want to be competitive for the top of the podium, I need a quad." Backloading seven jumping passes? Of course, he still has to do three spins and two footwork sequences, so you think he'll frontload them and backload that many? There's a reason people don't backload everything, and that's because you're tired by the end of the program. But lets say he backloads seven of eight jumping passes. The benefit he gets from that? Well, in the free skate at worlds, most guys did five backloaded passes. The minimum was three. So how much bonus does he get over the field from doing say four more backloaded passes than his competitors? About three points. Not insignificant. But if he's backloading six to their five - well, more like half a point. Of course, that supposes that he doesn't pop any jumps in the back half AND that his competitors make mistakes (if Kim hadn't singled the flip, but did a triple, she wins. She does a double, she wins overall). Of course, you're also ignoring the fact that Lysacek is not Ando. Or more specifically, Lori Nichol is not Nicolai Morosov - he of the empty backloading choreography. Nichol respects things like transitions and choreography, and I doubt she'd create a program like that.
Assumption three: that Lysacek doesn't care about the quad
Likely false. I think he wants it. That he doesn't want to compete at Skate America unless completely ready is a sign of his general competitiveness.
I didn't say Lysacek would do jumps at the end of his program. Starting at 2:15 he moves to 6 or 7 from his last season 5. He could leave out all combos from the first half and stay at three or move to 1 or 2 individual jumps. Sometimes skaters start with a step sequence in a FS. So Lysacek would do his ChSt1 at the beginning 1 or 2 jumps and 2 spins then at 2:15 starts his jumps again ending at 3:15 or 3:30. He ends with spins and step sequence. It is not changing his Olympic LP that much. I do not believe that all the jumps in the second half was dictated by lori nichols music or choreo. The Jump layout came out first and then the program was choreographed around starting 5 jumps at the halfway point. So Nichol would just change to 6or 7.
Skaters release their music but rarely jump layouts so I don't know maybe Kozuka is planning a quad in SP. And maybe 2 quads in the FS. Kozuka did just do clean quads last season.
Lysacek was never really good at quads. Maybe his year off means better quad ability. And he would do one in the SP and FS and then not mess up on his 3A which was why he lost 4CC to quadless Chan in 2009.
Skaters release their music but rarely jump layouts so I don't know maybe Kozuka is planning a quad in SP. And maybe 2 quads in the FS. Kozuka did just do clean quads last season.
Lysacek was never really good at quads. Maybe his year off means better quad ability. And he would do one in the SP and FS and then not mess up on his 3A which was why he lost 4CC to quadless Chan in 2009.
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I don't know if I'm reading this correctly--but are you suggesting that Lysacek should cram 6 or 7 back-to-back jumping passes in the span of a single-minute
Whatever happened to the concept of a well-balanced and proportional program? I know the judges don't seem too strict on this concept, but pulling a stunt like what you suggested should merit no higher than a 5 in CH.
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I think the first step sequence is automatically leveled. But okay. But again, I'm gonna point out that the benefit from doing two extra backloaded passes is ~1 point. The difference between a 3A and a 4T is 1.8 points. It makes more sense to backloaded four or five jumping passes and concentrate on getting the quad. Which I expect him to do. I'd be interested in seeing a program that squeezes six or seven jumping passes in a one minute. Do you have any examples?
Before this year, Chan was never really good at quads. Now he's better than the skaters known for being quadsters.
Before this year, Chan was never really good at quads. Now he's better than the skaters known for being quadsters.
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- Jun 27, 2003
I love thinking about how at the time of the next olympics I will be 30!
I agree with your first statement, Pogue.
As for your second one, I wasn't thinking of the world standings, but aren't they moot this year? He's 18th in the world without having skated since 2010. I'm not sure what that signifies. If he skates this year, each set of judges at each competition will judge the performance he gives at that competition, right? So he stands a chance of medaling at each competition, if he's good enough. That's what I had in mind.
I don't know if I'm reading this correctly--but are you suggesting that Lysacek should cram 6 or 7 back-to-back jumping passes in the span of a single-minute
Whatever happened to the concept of a well-balanced and proportional program? I know the judges don't seem too strict on this concept, but pulling a stunt like what you suggested should merit no higher than a 5 in CH.
Judges don't care so much about well balanced or proportional. They didn't care about frontloading by Plushenko or midloading by Miki Ando.
I have no examples of a man doing beyond 5 jumps after the halfway point.
It would just be easier to stay at an all triple level than try to go beyond that. Especially for Lysacek!
they all know he's the olympic champion and he will get a huge bonus in GOE and PCS, he would get that even if he just was world champion
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It's actually sad but I believe Lysacek is still one of the top American guys. He has very good chance of squeezing into one of the two US world team spots this year if he comes back. Whether he will feel that he's ready to come back is another question. It's very hard to imagine of him going to Sochi Olympic without being crushed. I won't hold my breath if he comes back for 2014 Olympic though.
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- Feb 17, 2010
What is sad about him being one of the top 2 American men? He is less than 2 years removed from his Olympic triumph, and we rarely have had much depth in men's skating (depth as in more than 1 medal contender on the world scene). I also don't see him coming back for Sochi, particularly if Chan remains a fixture at the very top. But I think, at this point, he would have the best chance of any American man to medal there.
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