Prediction: Who will make it to the JGP Final?

[FlattFan]

For ladies:
Definitely
Polina Shelepen - gold Latvia + gold Romania - 30 points
Vanessa Lam - bronze Australia + gold Austria - 26 points

Very likely
Courtney Hicks - gold Australia + ? Italy
Julia Lipnitskaia - gold Poland + ? Italy
Risa Shoji - silver Australia + ? Estonia
Satoko Miyahara - silver Poland + ? Italy
Li Zijun - silver Latvia + silver Austria - 26 points

Not likely
Polina Agafonova - bronze Latvia + bronze Austria - 22 points
Samantah Cesario - bronze Poland + ? Estonia

Definitely not
Polina Korobeynikova - 4th Australia + silver Poland - 22 points
Hae-Jin Kim - 5th Australia + bronze Romania - 18 points


JGP Milan, Italy - Satoko Miyahara, Julia Lipnitskaia, Courtney Hicks
JGP Tallinn, Estonia - Risa Shoji, Samantha Cesario

Predict Julia, Courtney, Satoko go 1,2,3 in Italy
Risa, Samantha 1,2 Estonia

Final 6
1. Julia
2. Polina
3. Courtney
4. Risa
5. Vanessa
6. Li

[Chemistry66]

Just a quick correction: Polina Korobeynikova had silver in Romania, not Poland. And she would also be over Polina Agafonova in ranking because with same qualifying point totals (22), highest placement is the next tiebreaker and a silver puts Polina K. over Polina A.

[sequinsgalore]

You can see the standings so far here: http://www.isuresults.com/events/jgp2011/jgpsladies.htm

1. Polina Shelepen 15+15 = 30
2. Vanessa Lam 11+15 = 26
3. Zijun Li 13+13 = 26
4. Polina Korobeynikova 9+13 = 22
5. Polina Agafonova 11+11 = 22
6. Hae-Jin Kim 7+11 = 18

Still to skate:
8. Julia Lipnitskaia 15
9. Courtney Hicks 15
10. Satoko Miyahara 13
11. Risa Shoji 13
13. Samantha Cesario 11
14. Gerli Liinamäe 9

Lipnitskaia and Hicks only have to place top 3 to qualify for the Final, whereas 4th makes it uncertain. Miyahara and Shoji have to win to be guaranteed; if silver they need not to have the lowest combined score. Cesario and Liinamaë has to win.

[FlattFan]

You can see the standings so far here: http://www.isuresults.com/events/jgp2011/jgpsladies.htm

1. Polina Shelepen 15+15 = 30
2. Vanessa Lam 11+15 = 26
3. Zijun Li 13+13 = 26
4. Polina Korobeynikova 9+13 = 22
5. Polina Agafonova 11+11 = 22
6. Hae-Jin Kim 7+11 = 18

Still to skate:
8. Julia Lipnitskaia 15
9. Courtney Hicks 15
10. Satoko Miyahara 13
11. Risa Shoji 13
13. Samantha Cesario 11
14. Gerli Liinamäe 9

Lipnitskaia and Hicks only have to place top 3 to qualify for the Final, whereas 4th makes it uncertain. Miyahara and Shoji have to win to be guaranteed; if silver they need not to have the lowest combined score. Cesario and Liinamaë has to win.

If Satoko gets silver in Italy, she's into the final. Guaranteed.
Assuming Julia,Courtney, and Samantha qualified before Satoko with a win each, she will go into tie breaker with 2 other silver-silver girls (Risa and Li)
Her scores easily trump those two.
If Samantha does not win, she will go into another tie breaker, but this time, with only Li. Also in her favor.

[Mrs. P]

If Satoko gets silver in Italy, she's into the final. Guaranteed.
Assuming Julia,Courtney, and Samantha qualified before Satoko with a win each, she will go into tie breaker with 2 other silver-silver girls (Risa and Li)
Her scores easily trump those two.
If Samantha does not win, she will go into another tie breaker, but this time, with only Li. Also in her favor.

If Samantha is in second (11+13=24), Li will beat her (26). But if she wins, yes she'll trump Li. Risa has slightly higher PB's but Samantha has edged her out in Season's best so far, so it will be an interesting competition.

Two scenarios:

FIRST
I'll go with SBs and say that Julia, Satoko and Hicks in Italy and Samantha and Risa in Estonia.

That means:
Julia -30
Polina S - 30
Vanessa - 26 (1+3 1st tie breaker)
Courtney - 26 (1+3 1st tie breaker)
Samantha - 26 (1+3 2nd tie breaker)
Satoko 26 (2+2 + 1st tiebreaker)

Li and Risa (both 26 2+2) and Polina K (2+4) as alternates.

SECOND:
Julia, Hicks and Satoko in Italy: Risa and Samantha in Estonia.

Julia 30 (1+1 plus score tiebreaker win)
Polina S 30 (1+1)
Courtney 28 (1+2 plus score tiebreaker win)
Risa 28 (1+2)
Vanessa 26 (1+3 plus tiebreaker 1 win
Li 26 (2+2)

Satoko 24 (2+3 plus score tiebreaker win), Samantha 24 (2+3) and Polina K 22 (2+4 plus tiebreaker win) as alternates.

[FlattFan]

If Samantha is in second (11+13=24), Li will beat her (26). But if she wins, yes she'll trump Li. Risa has slightly higher PB's but Samantha has edged her out in Season's best so far, so it will be an interesting competition.

If Samantha does not win, she will go into another tie breaker, but this time, with only Li. Also in her favor.

she in this sentence refers to Satoko. I said if Satoko gets a silver, and then if Samantha does not win, Satoko will be in as her score trumps Li's.

My head just spins a bit.