No, you had it right the first time - Miyahara only has 20 points (due to a 5th place finish and 7 points, combined with her silver from earlier)Originally Posted by Mrs. P
No, you had it right the first time - Miyahara only has 20 points (due to a 5th place finish and 7 points, combined with her silver from earlier)
Zijun is in regardless of the outcome in Tallinn.
Of course, if Shoji has a bit of the craziness that happened to Miyahara, and is out of medal contention, Shershak and Cesario could both make it if they tie with 24 each (if someone like Gracie Gold pulls a Vanessa Lam and wins it all)
Right, so if two skaters are in, they will beat the two Polinas but not. If they beat Li in seeding depends on placement/overall scores.
That's a good point. Gracie Gold does have a 2A-3T and a 3F-3T and has done really well this summer. I still think that Shoji and Cesario will hold on (with Cesario beating the Polinas in a tiebreaker if she gets bronze) for the two spots.
I think the main point that we probably agree on is that the juniors have shown that anything is possible - a relative unknown can win or medal (Vanessa Lam, Anna Shershak, etc), a top contender can get injured/be sick (Hicks) or have a bad day (Miyahara). Chaos could reign and one or both of the Polinas could qualify.
Oh figure skating.
I think Estonia will be a horse race between Cesario, Shoji, and Shershak. But Gold could be the spoiler by grabbing a medal and scrambling the points that would be the downfall of one or more of the other 3. I can see a lot of scenarios where tiebreakers come into play, so these ladies must go for those scores, max out points, and execute out there on the ice if they want to get to the Final. I suspect 24 is going to be the minimum points that gets to go the Final, maybe even 26.
I think Gracie Gold will make a big splash. In fact, she's my pick for gold, with Cesario and Shoji rounding out the podium. Funny that Cesario has a bronze while Shoji and Shershak have silvers, but Cesario's score was the highest.
This scenario is possible. Not sure if my math is right, but I think Cesario needs to come in 1st or 2nd to make the final, while Shoji only needs to find the podium and make sure Shershak doesn't end up in front of her.
The only way Cesario can get the bronze and still make the finals is if both of the following happen:
A) Neither Shoji nor Shershak gets 22 points or better (both would beat Samantha if all 3 had 22 points since Shoji/Shershak's silver+4th would beat Samantha with 2 bronzes)
and
B) Samantha's scores with a bronze are good enough to overcome Polina Agafonova. (Polina K automatically would be over a Samantha 2-bronze ranking due to her silver)
Then the finals would be Julia, Polina S, Vanessa Lam, Zijun Li, Polina K, and Samantha. (Samantha would be more safe if she got a silver or a gold, yes, but it's not impossible with a bronze)
Actually, there is one other option. If Papadakis & Cizeron should win, they would have 24 points, and the first place finish is the tie breaker.
Oh, yeah. Good point. I guess I'm not putting to much on it in hopes that the Americans make it.
If Gold skates like she did (or close to it) at GCFI at the beginning of September, she's going to be hard to beat. Not one negative GOE. 3F+3T, 3Lz, 2A in short, 3Lz+3T, 2A+3T, 3F, 3Lz, 3S, 3Lo, 2A+2T+2Lo in the long along with L3 steps, L4 spins....
I think she'll be on the podium, but it's a toss up over what place. I find Gracie to be mainly a technician at this point, while Cesario and Shoji are both very elegant and mature, so I would not be surprised if they beat her in PCS (esp where Gracie is an international unknown). Further, Cesario has huge jumps that garner +GOE and Risa has 3-3 in SP and 3-3-2 and 2a-3t planned in FS, so I think if all girls skate well it will be a close intense race. I wouldn't say any of these 3 has the win in the bag by any means.
If I had to guess Shershak will likely be 4th here, she's lovely but I think her limited tech content will hold her back more here than it did in Milan. And what that means is it really comes down to whether Cesario can beat out Shoji/Gold (or someone else - you never know) to come in 1st or 2nd. Because if she's 3rd, and Shershak is 4th, and Shoji is 1st or 2nd, then Samantha would be out of the final, and the last spot would come down to a tiebreaker between Shershak and Korobeynikova.
Shoji probably has the cushiest odds because she could still qualify with a 4th place finish and unlike Shershak she has so many triples planned that a mistake/UR or two shouldn't kill her chances. And if she's 3rd her chances are pretty good, and if 2nd she's definitely in. I think if she skates well she can definitely win this, but I am wary about what happened to Miyahara (though Risa's jumps aren't nearly as small and I find her overall quality superior to Miyahara as well, and in the past she's been consistent). In any event, it will be very exciting to see how it all plays out!
I find it interesting that the JFP finishes before the GP starts and the top Juniors have to wait two months to compete at the JGPF at the same time as the GPF. Meanwhile, the coaches are occupied with their Senior skaters. There are no competitions in these two months that I'm aware of, so the Juniors really have to prepare differently. Hard to tell if it's better or worse. I guess it depends on how they program themselves to use this time.
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