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Thread: Prediction: Who will make it to the JGP Final?

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    Prediction: Who will make it to the JGP Final?

    For ladies:
    Definitely
    Polina Shelepen - gold Latvia + gold Romania - 30 points
    Vanessa Lam - bronze Australia + gold Austria - 26 points

    Very likely
    Courtney Hicks - gold Australia + ? Italy
    Julia Lipnitskaia - gold Poland + ? Italy
    Risa Shoji - silver Australia + ? Estonia
    Satoko Miyahara - silver Poland + ? Italy
    Li Zijun - silver Latvia + silver Austria - 26 points

    Not likely
    Polina Agafonova - bronze Latvia + bronze Austria - 22 points
    Samantah Cesario - bronze Poland + ? Estonia

    Definitely not
    Polina Korobeynikova - 4th Australia + silver Poland - 22 points
    Hae-Jin Kim - 5th Australia + bronze Romania - 18 points


    JGP Milan, Italy - Satoko Miyahara, Julia Lipnitskaia, Courtney Hicks
    JGP Tallinn, Estonia - Risa Shoji, Samantha Cesario

    Predict Julia, Courtney, Satoko go 1,2,3 in Italy
    Risa, Samantha 1,2 Estonia

    Final 6
    1. Julia
    2. Polina
    3. Courtney
    4. Risa
    5. Vanessa
    6. Li

  2. #2
    Currently frozen as a popsicle Chemistry66's Avatar
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    Just a quick correction: Polina Korobeynikova had silver in Romania, not Poland. And she would also be over Polina Agafonova in ranking because with same qualifying point totals (22), highest placement is the next tiebreaker and a silver puts Polina K. over Polina A.

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    More or less: more is more sequinsgalore's Avatar
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    You can see the standings so far here: http://www.isuresults.com/events/jgp2011/jgpsladies.htm

    1. Polina Shelepen 15+15 = 30
    2. Vanessa Lam 11+15 = 26
    3. Zijun Li 13+13 = 26
    4. Polina Korobeynikova 9+13 = 22
    5. Polina Agafonova 11+11 = 22
    6. Hae-Jin Kim 7+11 = 18

    Still to skate:
    8. Julia Lipnitskaia 15
    9. Courtney Hicks 15
    10. Satoko Miyahara 13
    11. Risa Shoji 13
    13. Samantha Cesario 11
    14. Gerli Liinamäe 9

    Lipnitskaia and Hicks only have to place top 3 to qualify for the Final, whereas 4th makes it uncertain. Miyahara and Shoji have to win to be guaranteed; if silver they need not to have the lowest combined score. Cesario and Liinamaë has to win.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sequinsgalore View Post
    You can see the standings so far here: http://www.isuresults.com/events/jgp2011/jgpsladies.htm

    1. Polina Shelepen 15+15 = 30
    2. Vanessa Lam 11+15 = 26
    3. Zijun Li 13+13 = 26
    4. Polina Korobeynikova 9+13 = 22
    5. Polina Agafonova 11+11 = 22
    6. Hae-Jin Kim 7+11 = 18

    Still to skate:
    8. Julia Lipnitskaia 15
    9. Courtney Hicks 15
    10. Satoko Miyahara 13
    11. Risa Shoji 13
    13. Samantha Cesario 11
    14. Gerli Liinamäe 9

    Lipnitskaia and Hicks only have to place top 3 to qualify for the Final, whereas 4th makes it uncertain. Miyahara and Shoji have to win to be guaranteed; if silver they need not to have the lowest combined score. Cesario and Liinamaë has to win.
    If Satoko gets silver in Italy, she's into the final. Guaranteed.
    Assuming Julia,Courtney, and Samantha qualified before Satoko with a win each, she will go into tie breaker with 2 other silver-silver girls (Risa and Li)
    Her scores easily trump those two.
    If Samantha does not win, she will go into another tie breaker, but this time, with only Li. Also in her favor.

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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    If Satoko gets silver in Italy, she's into the final. Guaranteed.
    Assuming Julia,Courtney, and Samantha qualified before Satoko with a win each, she will go into tie breaker with 2 other silver-silver girls (Risa and Li)
    Her scores easily trump those two.
    If Samantha does not win, she will go into another tie breaker, but this time, with only Li. Also in her favor.
    If Samantha is in second (11+13=24), Li will beat her (26). But if she wins, yes she'll trump Li. Risa has slightly higher PB's but Samantha has edged her out in Season's best so far, so it will be an interesting competition.

    Two scenarios:

    FIRST
    I'll go with SBs and say that Julia, Satoko and Hicks in Italy and Samantha and Risa in Estonia.

    That means:
    Julia -30
    Polina S - 30
    Vanessa - 26 (1+3 1st tie breaker)
    Courtney - 26 (1+3 1st tie breaker)
    Samantha - 26 (1+3 2nd tie breaker)
    Satoko 26 (2+2 + 1st tiebreaker)

    Li and Risa (both 26 2+2) and Polina K (2+4) as alternates.

    SECOND:
    Julia, Hicks and Satoko in Italy: Risa and Samantha in Estonia.

    Julia 30 (1+1 plus score tiebreaker win)
    Polina S 30 (1+1)
    Courtney 28 (1+2 plus score tiebreaker win)
    Risa 28 (1+2)
    Vanessa 26 (1+3 plus tiebreaker 1 win
    Li 26 (2+2)

    Satoko 24 (2+3 plus score tiebreaker win), Samantha 24 (2+3) and Polina K 22 (2+4 plus tiebreaker win) as alternates.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mrs. P View Post
    If Samantha is in second (11+13=24), Li will beat her (26). But if she wins, yes she'll trump Li. Risa has slightly higher PB's but Samantha has edged her out in Season's best so far, so it will be an interesting competition.
    Quote Originally Posted by me
    If Samantha does not win, she will go into another tie breaker, but this time, with only Li. Also in her favor.
    she in this sentence refers to Satoko. I said if Satoko gets a silver, and then if Samantha does not win, Satoko will be in as her score trumps Li's.

    My head just spins a bit.

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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    she in this sentence refers to Satoko. I said if Satoko gets a silver, and then if Samantha does not win, Satoko will be in as her score trumps Li's.

    My head just spins a bit.
    Oh I see. I guess I was referring to the rule that the pronoun refers to the previously referred noun. But yeah, obviously I agree Satoko is more likely to get in than Li is.

  8. #8
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    Let's do the men!

    So far:

    Ryuji Hino - 28
    Keiji Tanaka - 24
    He Zhang - 20
    Timothy Dolensky 20

    Zhang and Dolensky will likely get eliminated as there are still four first place winners to compete. And actually, as long as all of them finish in the top three in their respective events, they should all get in.

    Artur Dmitreiv has a good chance as well because he had a relatively good score in his event (he was close to Brown in his event and he was second!) As long as he's in top 3, he'll likely be in as well as he will probably beat Keiji in the tiebreaker.

    So here's what I think will happen.

    It will be Han Yan, Jason Brown and Artur Dmitriev in Italy
    Joshua Farris, Maxim Kovtun and Ryuichi Kihara in Estonia.

    Which means:

    Han Yan - 30 (1+1)
    Joshua Farris -30 (1+1)
    Jason Brown -28 (1+2 with tiebreaker win)
    Maxim Kovtun - 28 (1+2)
    Ryuju Hino - 28 (1+2)
    Artur Dmitriev - 24 (2+3)

    An alternative scenario:
    Artur Dmitriev, Han Yan and Jason Brown in Italy
    Maxim Kovtun, Joshua Farris and Ryuichi Kihara in Estonia

    Which means:
    Maxim Kovtun - 30 (1+1)
    Han Yan - 28 (1+2 plus tiebreaker win)
    Joshua Farris - 28 (1+2)
    Artur Dmitriev -28 (2+1)
    Ryuju Hino - 28 (1+2)
    Jason Brown - 26 (1+3)

    Basically same folks, different order.

    Under both scenarios, Keiji Tanka (24), Ryuichi Kihara (22) and He Zhang (20) would be alternates.

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    Well Gracie Gold is reportedly going to Talinn, which could either hurt or help both Samantha and Risa's chances of making the final. As for Miyahara, I think it really comes down to if she is 2nd or 3rd this week (or 1st!). Because if she is 2nd, she should win the total score tiebraker over Li and (potentially) Risa, but if she is 3rd, she will be out (barring some very unusual results from others) regardless of how high she scores. If I had to guess though, I think she will be 3rd, I can't see her beating Julia and I tend to think Courtney will probably edge her out as well.

    As for Talinn, it's anyone's guess as to who wins. I hope it's Risa, but it could very well be Samantha, or now Gracie too. I'd love to see Li, Shoji, and Cesario all in the final, but I guess that can't happen unless Courtney or Julia place 4th or lower in Milan, which I don't see happening.

    Grrr I wish there were still 8 spots...

  10. #10
    Custom Title LeCygne's Avatar
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    I think it will be tough for Miyahara to get silver... Li was sooo close to a gold over Vanessa Lam in Austria. Hope Li makes it.

    I'm so excited that Gracie Gold got an assignment! Too bad it's the last one in the series though. Remember when Vanessa Lam won gold last year but it was too late for her to get another assignment and try for JGPF? If the summer was any indiciation, Gracie will do just as well.

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    Quote Originally Posted by LeCygne View Post
    I think it will be tough for Miyahara to get silver... Li was sooo close to a gold over Vanessa Lam in Austria. Hope Li makes it.

    I'm so excited that Gracie Gold got an assignment! Too bad it's the last one in the series though. Remember when Vanessa Lam won gold last year but it was too late for her to get another assignment and try for JGPF? If the summer was any indiciation, Gracie will do just as well.
    This is very true but Shoji and Cesario are both very strong themselves, so I don't think Gracie is a shoo-in for gold or anything. I would be surprised if the podium was anyone besides those three though, the question is more in what order will they place. Of course anything could happen. I think if they all went clean, Risa would win (if she gets full credit for all her jumps), but maybe that's just my personal bias speaking. All three girls are very strong technically and on the PCS side of things, and Risa and Gracie both have 3-3s and 2a-3t (Samantha has neither, but probably has bigger/better quality jumps than the other two so it may not matter so much).

  12. #12
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    Now that the men are done in Italy, here's what we got:

    Han Yan — 30
    Jason Brown — 28 (wins tiebreaker)
    Ryuju Hino — 28
    Keiji Tanaka — 24
    Artur Dmitrev — 22
    He Zhang — 20

    Yan, Brown and Hino are likely safe.
    To compete in Estonia is two first place winners Farris and Kovtun. Ryuichi Kihara (who has 11 points) is also competing. Unless Farris and Kovtun completely melt down and don't medal here, I expect that those two will take two spots. I believe fellow countrymen Tanaka and Kihara will be fighting for the final spot, if Kihara gets a silver. If he gets a gold, he'll likely join Farris and Kovtun, unless, again, one of those two completely melts down.

  13. #13
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    Dance:
    Victoria SINITSINA / Ruslan ZHIGANSHIN - 30 (Tiebreaker)
    Alexandra STEPANOVA / Ivan BUKIN -30
    Maria NOSULIA / Evgen KHOLONIUK - 26 (Tiebreaker winner)
    Anastasia GALYETA / Alexei SHUMSKI -26
    Alexandra ALDRIDGE / Daniel EATON -24 (Tiebreaker winner)
    Lauri BONACORSI / Travis MAGER -24 (Tiebreaker)


    Alternates: Valeria ZENKOVA / Valerie SINITSIN - 24 ; Nicole ORFORD / Thomas WILLIAMS - 20 ;

    Left to skate in Estonia: Evgenia KOSIGINA / Nikolai MOROSHKIN (13); Anna YANOVSKAIA / Sergei MOZGOV (11); Mackenzie BENT / Garrett MACKEEN (11)

    One of the couples will get in by winning, pushing Bonacorsi and Mager out. If Kosigina/Moroshkin does not win and gets silver, they will also be in. If K/M win bronze, they will have to score 135.79 to beat Aldridge/Eaton.

    If Bent and Mackeen or Yanovskaia and Mozgov gets silver (and K/M wins gold), they will have to get scores of 134.40 and 133.31, respectively to beat Aldridge and Eaton in the tiebreaker.

    So basically if its: K/M, Y/M, B/M (or 2nd or 3rd in reverse) -- Aldridge and Eaton will hold on because neither of the 2nd or 3rd place teams are unlikely to win the tiebreaker.
    They will also hold on if Y/M or B/M wins and K/M only gets bronze because they will likely lose the tiebreaker.
    They will not hold on if Y/M or B/M wins and K/M holds on to silver. As a result the winner of the two former couples and K/M would get into the final.

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    Currently frozen as a popsicle Chemistry66's Avatar
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    Please Excuse the Math Fail that was formerly in this post. Miyahara is out of it, finishing now 6th in the qualifications with one event (and many who can score above her) to go.
    Last edited by Chemistry66; 10-08-2011 at 01:10 PM.

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    Women: Oh so many twists!

    Julia LIPNITSKAIA - 30 (wins tiebreaker)
    Polina SHELEPEN - 30
    Vanessa LAM - 26 (tiebreaker )
    Zijun LI -26
    Polina KOROBEYNIKOVA - 22 (tiebreaker)
    Polina AGAFONOVA -22

    Hicks is out due to WD.

    Still to skate: Anna SHERSHAK (13; 150.21); Risa SHOJI (13; 147.49) ; Samantha CESARIO (11; 153.84)

    I will put my beats on Shoji and Cesario being 1+2 because Shershak does not have the jump content. Of course if it's Cesario and Shershak goes 2+3, then we're going to face a tiebreaker situation, which obvioulsy Cesario will win because she already has more points. So Shoji and Cesario for the final spots.
    Last edited by Mrs. P; 10-08-2011 at 01:17 PM.

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