Skate America: Predictions

Men :
Kevin VAN DER PERREN (BEL)
Michal BREZINA (CZE)
Florent AMODIO (FRA)
Samuel CONTESTI (ITA)
Takahiko KOZUKA (JPN)
Daisuke MURAKAMI (JPN)
Denis TEN (KAZ)
Richard DORNBUSH (USA)
Armin MAHBANOOZADEH (USA)
Douglas RAZZANO (USA)

Ladies:
Elene GEDEVANISHVILI (GEO)
Carolina KOSTNER (ITA)
Valentina MARCHEI (ITA)
Haruka IMAI (JPN)
Ksenia MAKAROVA (RUS)
Joshi HELGESSON (SWE)
Viktoria HELGESSON (SWE)
Alissa CZISNY (USA)
Joelle FORTE (USA)
Caroline ZHANG (USA)

Pairs:
Kirsten MOORE-TOWERS / Dylan MOSCOVITCH (CAN)
Dan ZHANG / Hao ZHANG (CHN)
Maylin HAUSCH / Daniel WENDE (GER)
Aliona SAVCHENKO / Robin SZOLKOWY (GER)
Vera BAZAROVA / Yuri LARIONOV (RUS)
Caydee DENNEY / John COUGHLIN (USA)
Mary Beth MARLEY / Rockne BRUBAKER (USA)
Tiffany VISE / Don BALDWIN (USA)

Ice Dance:
Alexandra PAUL / Mitchell ISLAM (CAN)
Kharis RALPH / Asher HILL (CAN)
Nathalie PECHALAT / Fabian BOURZAT (FRA)
Nelli ZHIGANSHINA / Alexander GAZSI (GER)
Isabella TOBIAS / Deividas STAGNIUNAS (LTU)
Isabella CANNUSCIO / Ian LORELLO (USA)
Meryl DAVIS / Charlie WHITE (USA)
Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE (USA)

Here is my predictions

Predictions:
Men
1. Takahiko KOZUKA
2. Florent AMODIO
3. Michal BREZINA
4. Armin MAHBANOOZADEH
5. Samuel CONTESTI

Ladies
1. Alissa CZISNY
2. Carolina KOSTNER
3. Elene GEDEVANISHVILI
4. Ksenia MAKAROVA
5. Caroline ZHANG

Pairs
1. Aliona SAVCHENKO / Robin SZOLKOWY
2. Dan ZHANG / Hao ZHANG
3. Kirsten MOORE-TOWERS / Dylan MOSCOVITCH
4. Vera BAZAROVA / Yuri LARIONOV
5. Caydee DENNEY / John COUGHLIN

Ice Dance
1. Meryl DAVIS / Charlie WHITE
2. Nathalie PECHALAT / Fabian BOURZAT
3. Alexandra PAUL / Mitchell ISLAM
4. Kharis RALPH / Asher HILL
5. Nelli ZHIGANSHINA / Alexander GAZSI

Here we go!

Ladies
1. Carolina Kostner
2. Alissa Czisny
3. Ksenia Makarova
4. Elene Gedevanishvili
5. Haruka Imai
6. Caroline Zhang
7. Valentina Marchei
8. Jill Forte
9. Joshi H
10. Viktoria H

Men
1. Kozuka
2. Amodio
3. Mahbanoozadeh
4. Brezina
5. Dornbush

Pairs
1. Savchenko/Szolkowy
2. Zhang/Zhang
3. Bazarova/Larionov

Ice Dance
1. Davis/White
2. Pechalat/Bourzat
3. Paul/Mitchell

Men:
1. Kozuka
2. Amodio
3. Brezina
4. Dornbush
5. Murakami

Ladies:
1. Kostner
2. Czisny
3. Imai
4. Makarova
5. Gedevanishvili
6. Zhang
7. Marchei
8. J. Helgesson
9. V. Helgesson
10. Forte

Pairs:
1. S/S
2. Z/Z
3. M-T/M
4. D/C
5. B/L

Dance:
1. D/W
2. P/B
3. P/I
4. H/D
5. Z/G

I don't have faith in the international judges being as fond of Amodio's LP as the French judges. Brezina, if in shape, should beat him. As well, Murakami could surprise us and land on the podium. Dornbush too if he brings it. Kozuka would have to bomb to lose this competition and he is not prone to do that.

I'm going to go with Zhiganshina & Gaszi for 3rd place in dance. H&D edged them at Nebelhorn, but the tech panel was not as picky as they might have been. H&D could have gotten significantly lower levels. And I'm interested to see what Z&G did about the music in their FD.

Fourth & fifth will be very interesting--I'm guessing Hubbell & Donahue take 4th. Home town judging...

Ladies
1. Kostner
2. Czisny
3. Imai

Men
1. Kozuka
2. Amodio
3. Brezina

Pairs
1. Savchenko & Szolkowy
2. Zhang & Zhang
3. Bazarova & Larionov

Ice Dance
1. Davis & White
2. Péchalat & Bourzat
3. Zhiganshina & Gaszi

Mens
1. Taka Kozuka
2. Brezina
3. Dornbush
4. Amodio
5. Ten
6. Contesti
7. Mahbanoozadeh

Ladies
1. Kostner
2. Czisny
3. Imai
4. Makarova
5. Marchei
6. Zhang

Pairs
1. Savchenko/Szolkowy
2. Zhang's
3. Bazarova/Larionov
4. Denny/Coughlin
5. Moore-Towers/Moscovitch

Dance
1. Davis/White
2. Pechalat/Bourzat
3. Paul/Islam

I stink at predictions (I can never keep out wishful thinking) but anyway:

Men:
Dornbush
Kozuka
Mahbanoozadeh

Ladies:
Makarova
Kostner
Czisny

Pairs:
B/L
S/S
D/C

Dance:
D/W
P/B
Really couldn't say for 3rd

Men:
1. Kozuka
2. Brezina
3. Dornbush
4. Amodio or Armin

Ladies:
1. Czisny
2. Kostner
3. Imai
4. <surprise me> many potential spoilers.
it's like pick your favorite inconsistent skater. but i'll root for the underdog, Caroline Zhang

Pairs:
1. S/S
2. Z/Z
3. M-T/M
4. B/L or D/C

Dance:
1. D/W
2. P/B
3 - 5. P/I or H/D or Z/G

Hi, you may have seen me on FSUniverse.

icellist said:

Hi, you may have seen me on FSUniverse.

Click to expand...

I knew I'd seen your username somewhere else before! Welcome to Golden Skate!

Men
1. Takahiko Kozuka
2. Michel Brezina
3. Florent Amodio
4. Richard Dornbush
5. Armin Mahbanoozadeh

Why: I'm going to go straight down the line and copy the WC standings (2nd, 4th, 7th, 9th). I'm tossing on Armin ahead of Ten and Contesti because the latter two tend to peak later in the season, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them in any order. Nor Murakami, who is actually an American skating for Japan. Brezina's keeping his SP from last season, so it should be reasonably well trained and have the leg up on the remaining contenders. The top four (five?) could theoretically all land quads. I'm mostly curious about the PCS difference between Brezina, Amodio and Dornbush.

Ladies
1. Carolina Kostner
2. Alissa Czisny
3. Ksenia Makarova
4. Elene Gedevanishvilli
5. Haruka Imai

Thoughts: I've already said elsewhere I believe Kostner and Czisny will go 1-2 at worlds, and stick by that. It'll be interesting to see how wrong I might be based on this competition. I'm rooting for Imai to sneak onto the podium here, but I recall reading she had injury issues that delayed/impacted training. So did Makarova at Nebelhorn, though.

Pairs
1. Savchenko/Szolkowy
2. Zhang/Zhang
3. Bazarova/Larionov
4. Denney/Coughlin
5. Moore-Towers/Moscovitch

Thoughts: S/S are the clear leaders here. But then it gets tricky. The Zhangs have seemed to improve, but to what extent? And will the new rules for lifts, causing so many issues at Nebelhorn, be a problem for a team that has to be careful (due to his finger) and has been away from competition? B/L are operating with the lowest jump content of the group and they are the least likely to fulfill what they do attempt. But they have got many pluses on their side. Given that there are so many teams vying for the third Russian spot, how much energy is spent aiding this one? Mt/M are going to find that this upcoming season will be a bit of a rude awakening, I suspect. The level of competition on the GP circuit has skyrocketed.

Denney/Coughlin are the darkhorse here. Great performances, kind marking and mistakes from others could see them leap into second. They've shown up to local competitions very very ready, and Nebelhorn as well. I am curious about how they're pacing themselves (Mt/M had this issue last season), but the ball is rolling.

Dance
1. Davis/White
2. Pechelat/Bourzat
3. Zhiganshina/Gazsi
4. Hubbell/Donahue
5. Ralph/Hill

Thoughts: All over the place. Davis/White are locked in, of course. Even with a new program (relative to the field) they'll be fine. Z/G vs H/D will be an interesting replay of Nebelhorn, but I think they'll reverse the standings here.

And generally, I'm VERY curious how those who had their seasons extended by Worlds, crimping and challenging their training schedule, fair against those that didn't. Those who make worlds tend to be better than those that don't (duh) but those that just missed worlds. We won't see that very much here - Armin and Paul/Islam are really the only ones who could surprise with strong performances that could challenge the 5th placers etc, but this will be something to check in other GP events. I expect it'll even itself out by Nationals, if there is anything of note.

Wait a sec..Weaver/Poje aren't entered here, right?

Also, Murakami's been landing 4S in the SP in competitions this summer so he is a definite dark horse.

Whoops. Thanks for that catch.

thanks for the welcome. i've been reading in on goldenskate a lot recently. i also like how organized goldenskate is compared to fsu. that being said, goldenskate has a knc area that doesn't need money. oh yea, a lot of posters have become quite catty in the past year. i expect a lot of people to come from fsu to here now XD

well for in depth analysis:

For mens, no one in this field has the basics, skating skills, musicality, and technical prowess to match Takahiko Kozuka. The two other skaters to outclass the rest would be Michal Brezina and Florent Amodio. Both are quite young and fresh with strong jumps. I'm giving Michal Brezina the upper hand at this point because 1) I really hate Amodio's FS from Japan Open and 2) I think he is still trying to get into the groove of the music too. Richard Dornbush will slightly be propped and hence I think it will be Kozuka, Brezina, Dornbush, and then Amodio. But, there are many dark horses in this field. Samuel Contesti, Armin Mahbanoozeh, KVDP, and Daisuke Murakami will round out the next four spaces (like a mini-Ondrej Nepela rematch with Armin ). The last 2 will be Denis Ten, and Douglas Razzano. Denis Ten never starts the season strong. Razzano has not left a strong impression on me yet...

For ladies, it's a Czisny versus Kostner battle. I think Czisny will be more polished than Kostner at this point because Kostner had her Opera on Ice that must have distracted her from practicing her competitive programs. Also, Czisny will receive some bias at Skate America. I've been really hoping for Imai to break out since she was a junior. I always thought she was a better skater than Kanako and that the skaters under Hiroshi Nagakubo (coach of Imai, Suzuki and Arakawa) are usually undermarked in the PCS department. Ksenia Makarova is sort of a question mark at this point. She withdrew from Nebelhorn because of injury after a subpar SP which is quite strange because she is superb at the SP, usually, but I don't think she'll be on the podium either because her Marilyn Monroe program sounded better in theory than actuality (watch the Russian test videos, the program does not do any favors for her). Elene Gedevanishvili, Valentina Marchei, and the Helgessons are all pretty inconsitent skaters. I would not be surprised if they range from 4th to last. I'm am rooting for Caroline Zhang because of her improvements. I think that most people underestimate skaters that they've never watched (youtube videos) of. I won't be surprised if Joelle Forte surprises many with her many Kwan-esque qualities.

In pairs, S/S are in a class of their own. Z/Z are coming off a well-deserved break from competition, and hopefully that vacation will do them some good. They still have to work on the new pair's lift rules though. Canadian pairs skating has caught my interest recently. The Canadians have been getting better, but I wouldn't be surprised if B/L win bronze either, heck if they bring their A-game they could get silver. i feel that B/L are very consistent but only sparkle sometimes. D/C have proven that they're one of the best American teams but really, it's US pairs skating... I can't really talk about the Germans because I've never seen them skate. Is Marley still injured? I hope the team doesn't rush recovery for Skate America. I don't know how Vise/Baldwin will fare on the senior international grand prix level.

Ice dance is dominated by D/W despite their bad programs. P/B are consistent and I have a soft spot for them after last season's worlds... Z/G are probably very prepared for the event. H/D showed great fire at Nebelhorn. P/I surprised the FD portion of Skate Canada and Canadian Championships. Can't really comment on ice dancing because I don't pay much attention to it though.

just my two cents

Haruka Imai made a lot of progress these days.

http://youtu.be/kfEPUq37Ces

Hope she will do well.

icellist said:

For ladies, it's a Czisny versus Kostner battle. I think Czisny will be more polished than Kostner at this point because Kostner had her Opera on Ice that must have distracted her from practicing her competitive programs. Also, Czisny will receive some bias at Skate America. I've been really hoping for Imai to break out since she was a junior. I always thought she was a better skater than Kanako and that the skaters under Hiroshi Nagakubo (coach of Imai, Suzuki and Arakawa) are usually undermarked in the PCS department. Ksenia Makarova is sort of a question mark at this point. She withdrew from Nebelhorn because of injury after a subpar SP which is quite strange because she is superb at the SP, usually, but I don't think she'll be on the podium either because her Marilyn Monroe program sounded better in theory than actuality (watch the Russian test videos, the program does not do any favors for her). Elene Gedevanishvili, Valentina Marchei, and the Helgessons are all pretty inconsitent skaters. I would not be surprised if they range from 4th to last. I'm am rooting for Caroline Zhang because of her improvements. I think that most people underestimate skaters that they've never watched (youtube videos) of. I won't be surprised if Joelle Forte surprises many with her many Kwan-esque qualities.

Click to expand...

A rumor says that Haruka left Mr.Nagakubo and a member of Yuka team now.

icellist, Welcome to Golden Skate! We hope you will post long and often! And I hope you will check out GS's event coverage and interviews as well as the forum.

ayayukiituka said:

A rumor says that Haruka left Mr.Nagakubo and a member of Yuka team now.

Click to expand...

She's at the Detroit Skating Club?? Yet another skater added to Yuka/Jason's team! (If this is true)

If I try to predict I typically jinx those skaters so I'll refrain. I will predict, though, that fans will find controversy to start the new season...

burntBREAD said:

She's at the Detroit Skating Club??

Click to expand...

Can this be confirmed? If true my feelings are mixed about this.

Predictions,I like predicting the whole way, so....
Ladies
Czisny
Kostner
Gedevanishvili
Imai
J.Helgesson
Makarova
Forte
V.Helgesson
Marchei
Zhang(hope im wrong, but...)
Men:
Kozuka
Brezina
Dornbush
Amodio
Murakami
Mahbanoozadeh
Razzano
Ten
Van Der Perren
Contesti
Pairs:
Savchenko/Szolkowy
Zhang/Zhang
Bazarova/Larionov
Denney/Coughlin
M.T/Moscovitch
Marley/Brubaker
Hausch/Wende
Vise/Baldwin
Dance:
Davis/White
Pechalat/Bourzat
Hubbell/Donohue
Paul/Islam
Zhiganshina/Gazsi
Ralph/Hill
Tobias/Staginuinas
Cannuscio/Lorello