Skate Canada Predictions

mousepotato · Oct 26, 2011

They won't get fined at all. They only lose the bonus money the ISU gives skaters for doing all three events; and of course any prize money they would have got at Skate Canada. His health is more important. They still can compete at TEB and get into the GPF provided he is healthy enough and by then he should be.

thumbyskates · Oct 26, 2011

mousepotato said:
They won't get fined at all. They only lose the bonus money the ISU gives skaters for doing all three events; and of course any prize money they would have got at Skate Canada. His health is more important. They still can compete at TEB and get into the GPF provided he is healthy enough and by then he should be.

Yes. They'll be fined 10% off the winnings of the 2 events that they do compete in. This is one of the stipulations of doing 3 events - Tessa and Scott even mentioned this was their reasoning for not doing a 3rd event...in the case of injury or medical withdrawal, the fine still applies.

MikiAndoFan#1 · Oct 26, 2011

demarinis5 said:
^^ I have not heard anything official but Fabian was battling Bronchitis at SA and he probably has not recovered yet.

mousepotato · Oct 26, 2011

they are just not being awarded for doing three competitions, splitting hairs maybe. They have one more chance to compete to get into the GPF, that is a chance teams didn't have last year. They should have no trouble getting into the final

mskater93 · Oct 26, 2011

No, Mouse, Thumby is correct, they will be fined 10% of their winnings from SA and TEB for NOT appearing in their third event. This is why V/M, S/S, and a few others decided against the three events. The fine is even in affect for withdrawals due to illness and/or injury (which is really stupid). The rules were linked in someone else's post further up.

Bourzat must be in really rough shape as I know they said they signed up for 3 because they needed the training money

ETA: sorry, it was mentioned in the SA thread here: http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/showthread.php?35141-Ice-Dance-FD!/page6

kwanatic · Oct 26, 2011

I know it's safe to bet all my kittens on P. Chiddy...that's a given. :rolleye:

As for the ladies, I really don't know how to call it. It's not like SA where there were really only two skaters who could legitimately win gold...there are a lot of contenders here and I don't know who to go with.

My dream podium would be:

1. Mirai Nagasu
2. Akiko Suzuki
3. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva

I don't know though. If Mirai skates well, and she's fixed the technical content in her LP which was pretty light for her competition at Nebelhorn, she's got this one. If the jumps are there, so is everything else. Across the board, she's the most complete skater at this competition. People may point to Liza T, but Liza lacks the maturity and polish that Mirai has, not to mention lines, extension, spins and spirals (and if you don't think that stuff matters then you must not have watched Alissa beat Carolina this past weekend :sheesh

. Liza is not as consistent as some people seem to think. I watched her all last season and she had her share of jump issues, so we'll have to see how she does on the senior level with this different kind of pressure. But if she does skate well, I'm sure she'll be on the podium.

If both skate well, the edge will probably go to Mirai...or at least it should. PCS have been a really dicey area so we'll just have to see who the judges like.

Akiko looked really strong at JO. Ashley's programs are pretty nice and if she skates well she should score well. It remains to be seen how Rachael will do given her new schedule and blah blah.

The outcome of this one is much harder to predict than SA.

Spun Silver · Oct 26, 2011

I like your podium, but if Ashley earned one of those medals I would be very happy. She needs to break out of the middle this season.

Layfan · Oct 26, 2011

Ashley has a history of doing okay at the GP series though and snagging at least one medal. She needs something else - a gold or another trip to the GPF and most definitely a good showing a nationals to give her career a boost.

I agree this one is very hard to predict for the ladies. There a lot of questions. Like, will the best version of Mirai show up or will sloppy Mirai show up? What kind of shape is Rachael in? How will Lisa fare against some skaters who are have a more mature style than her? I am excited for it. Especially to see how Mirai and Lisa do.

With the men, I'm certainly excited to see Chan and Dai again but I also really hope Adam and Ross do well this season. I wonder if either of the two can have a break out season.

Violet Bliss · Oct 26, 2011

The Ladies are really hard to predict, any of them may step up or underperform. All in all, I think there are still fewer evil twins than early last season!

ImaginaryPogue · Oct 26, 2011

Someone help me parse this.....

Should a seeded skater/couple not
complete the third event for any reason, the equivalent of 20% of the total prize money, that the
skater/couple has received in the first two events, must be reimbursed to the ISU or will be deducted from
the next possible contribution of the ISU to the Member of the skater/couple concerned.

1. My understanding is that this rule was created to promote skating at three events, and punish skaters that skate at two and then withdraw from their final one.

2. Fabian is clearly sick. Reporters mentioned it without asking. Viewers noticed it. It's not something he's faking.

3. The rule said "not complete the third event for any reason". Well, S/C was their SECOND event, not their third. So the rule, as written, seems to say that P/B won't be penalized.

4. Will the ISU really be so boneheaded?

Violet Bliss · Oct 26, 2011

I noticed the ambiguity of interpretation per your 3rd point too as I read the rules, even though I'm not a lawyer.

In rules concerning withdrawals from regular entries due to medical reasons, ISU spells out what kind of medical documents are acceptable. There is no such mention here regarding this particular category of withdrawals, affirming that no exception from penalty is made for seeded skaters withdrawing from the 3rd (extra) event for medical reasons. IOW, they are committed to 3 events comes what may.

colleen o'neill · Oct 26, 2011

I understand why they would have the penalty for withdrawing from the third event , if they're going to allow a 3rd event. If many skaters opted for 3 events ,and then simply found it too rigorous or decided that their first 2 events had already garnered them as many points as they could reasonably hope for ,the last couple of GP events could wind up with severely depleted fields .

What I still can't see as a sensible decision is the idea to allow 3 events , then fill them from a reduced pool of participants.

MikiAndoFan#1 · Oct 27, 2011

Spun Silver said:
I like your podium, but if Ashley earned one of those medals I would be very happy. She needs to break out of the middle this season.

I definitely agree. I really want Ashley to have her moment!

russell30 · Oct 27, 2011

blue_idealist said:
No worlds?! I wonder if his wife (Jenna McCorkell) will do the same thing, or keep going since she's a bit younger than him.

Jenna's goal I would have thought would be to have a good performance at Europeans on home turf, she has never really done that well at world's apart from a good showing in 2010. I know she was dissapointed with Vancouver so she may stick around until Sochi, but my guess is she will probably retire with Kevin and start a family

russell30 · Oct 27, 2011

I would like Cynthia to skate well, I wish she would take the triple lutz out of her SP its not consistent enough, I heard she has added the loop instead of her toe loop, not sure why - she usually got +3's on her toe loop?

Love Akiko to win though :biggrin:

I have a feeling with Ando out and who knows with Mao it could be her breakthrough season at last :biggrin:

kwanatic · Oct 27, 2011

Spun Silver said:
I like your podium, but if Ashley earned one of those medals I would be very happy. She needs to break out of the middle this season.

MikiAndoFan#1 said:
I definitely agree. I really want Ashley to have her moment!

I wouldn't mind if Ashley snagged one of those spots either. She's been working really hard and I think she'll end up with two of the better programs of the season. I liked what I saw of her Black Swan program earlier this summer, so if she's been working on polishing it, it should be great. If she nails her jumps, she should be a podium threat.

CARA · Oct 27, 2011

This may come as no surprise, but Nathalie Pechalat and Fabian Bourzat withdrew from the competition per the roster dated on 10/26/2011.

Mathman · Oct 27, 2011

About the whole three appearance Grand Prix option in general, this is a terrible idea. The sine qua non of competition is a level playing field. You cannot have a contest where a few select players get two out of three while everyone else is do or die.

Plus, the whole notion that the presence of last year's champs will boost interest and attendance is more wishful thinking than anything else. Right now I believe that the only athletes that are scheduled for three events are leonova, Brezina, Kavaguti & Smirnov, and Weaver & Poje. Michal B. was a treat at Skate America, but I do not think that any additional tickets were sold in anticipation of his participation.

Even if, say, world champions Miki Ando and Davis & White decided to grace an additional event outside their own country, I doubt that it would matter all that much at the gate.

kwanatic · Oct 27, 2011

Ladies predictions!

http://thenakedice.blogspot.com/2011/10/skate-canada-ladies-preview-predictions.html

Way too hard to call but I am hoping Mirai wins this...or at least makes the podium! :biggrin:

seniorita · Oct 27, 2011

who is commenting on skatebuzz feed? :rolleye:

Skate Canada Predictions

mousepotato

thumbyskates

MikiAndoFan#1

mousepotato

mskater93

kwanatic

Check out my YT channel, Bare Ice!

Spun Silver

Layfan

Violet Bliss

ImaginaryPogue

Violet Bliss

colleen o'neill

MikiAndoFan#1

russell30

russell30

kwanatic

Check out my YT channel, Bare Ice!

CARA

Mathman

kwanatic

Check out my YT channel, Bare Ice!

seniorita

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