Cup of China Predictions
- Thread starter icellist
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- Joined
- Feb 25, 2006
MEN:
1) Oda 2) Hanyu 3) Gachinski or Abbott
I wish Joubert hadn't withdrew.
LADIES:
1) Kostner 2) Sotnikova 3) Murakami
Of course if the good Mirai shows up, she could be on the podium..
PAIRS:
1) Kavaguti/Smirnov 2) Zhang/Zhang 3) Sui/Han or Moore-Towers/Moscovitch
DANCE:
1) Shibutanis 2) Bobrova/Soloviev 3) Samuelson/Gilles (a wild card since I haven't even seen them skate, but SOUND promising) or Carron/Jones
It would be nice to see Carron/Jones get a medal.
1) Oda 2) Hanyu 3) Gachinski or Abbott
I wish Joubert hadn't withdrew.
LADIES:
1) Kostner 2) Sotnikova 3) Murakami
Of course if the good Mirai shows up, she could be on the podium..
PAIRS:
1) Kavaguti/Smirnov 2) Zhang/Zhang 3) Sui/Han or Moore-Towers/Moscovitch
DANCE:
1) Shibutanis 2) Bobrova/Soloviev 3) Samuelson/Gilles (a wild card since I haven't even seen them skate, but SOUND promising) or Carron/Jones
It would be nice to see Carron/Jones get a medal.
Nobunari underwent a knee surgery during the off-season and hasn't competed in any summer competitions so his condition is a bit of a question mark. That said, a fellow poster at BoI mentioned that judging from Nobu's practice session in Canada, his new LP (choreographed by Sebastian Britten) is impressive.
- Joined
- Nov 19, 2010
I really want the two long suffering brilliant skaters, Oda and Abbott, to bring it and not do themselves in, and to win some well deserved medals and honours. This is probably do or die year for both, with the new wave of high jumping youngsters coming on. They have everything, TES and PCS abilities, while the next ones still need polishing. Come on, Nabu and Jeremy, keep your cool and show 'em how it's done.
If the veterans can keep their heads together, they should take Gold and Silver, leaving Bronze to Gachinski or Hanyu. I have a feeling Cachinski has a mental advantage over the Japanese prodigy.
If the veterans can keep their heads together, they should take Gold and Silver, leaving Bronze to Gachinski or Hanyu. I have a feeling Cachinski has a mental advantage over the Japanese prodigy.
Exactly one year ago, the reigning world bronze medalist Joubert was demoted from the top rank at Cup of China. I expect something similar could happen to Oda and Abbott. Oda's eighth or ninth folly must have made the judges and the federation really irritated and to give up any hopes on him. He has passed up the last realistic chance to win a world medal. Hanyu's rise will set him as the #4 Japanese, which will cost him in the PCS. Also I suspect he's not fully recovered from the injury in summer. His quad is only 1/3 in the success rate even at his best. Quadless Oda with second rate PCS can't be considered the favorite. Abbott is in the same situation but he is actually worse off after missing the world team and losing to 16 y.o. Hanyu at 4CC. Both Oda and Abbott must face new stars from their countries. That will add extra pressures like students taking the final exams.
Judging from Skate Canada, the ISU is decided to change the lineup of "top" skaters in this GP season. Who follows Fernandez? Undoubtedly a quad-included SP is the standard of the top skater of the new quad era. The winner should be Hanyu or Gachinski. Hanyu will score higher if both of them skate cleanly or with same degree of errors by higher base values and GOE.
Judging from Skate Canada, the ISU is decided to change the lineup of "top" skaters in this GP season. Who follows Fernandez? Undoubtedly a quad-included SP is the standard of the top skater of the new quad era. The winner should be Hanyu or Gachinski. Hanyu will score higher if both of them skate cleanly or with same degree of errors by higher base values and GOE.
- Joined
- Nov 19, 2010
In spite of all the very authoritative talks about politics and judges' preconceptions, Oda's protocols do not support such theory. He has always been properly credited for what he does, as long as they are legal. He is docked for Zayaking according to the IJS, no more no less. Granted I find such penalty way to severe but we can't rewrite history or apply any future changes retroactively. He has to comply with whatever rules he competes under, just like everybody else. So, in the end, he is responsible for repeatedly losing medals he should have won. With a well designed and practiced program, he could just snatch the gold as long as he doesn't find a new way to lose!
Oda and Abbott may face new stars from their countries, but in COC, they face the other competitors in the same event. I doubt they will be thinking about the Nationals while in China. This is not an end-of-season major event when Abbott is prone to blow his jumps, and his boot problems of last year are reportedly resolved, so it's not unlikely that he will perform well.
Oda and Abbott may face new stars from their countries, but in COC, they face the other competitors in the same event. I doubt they will be thinking about the Nationals while in China. This is not an end-of-season major event when Abbott is prone to blow his jumps, and his boot problems of last year are reportedly resolved, so it's not unlikely that he will perform well.
Oda's protocols support that he is not favored by the judges. Oda has lost to Takahashi twice by very small margins in last season. At Skate America, Oda totaly outjumped Takahashi by 15 points higher jump scores EVEN excluding 8 points lost by his usual error. The judges just could use his folly as an excuse to put him as an second rate skater deserves. The same reasoning applies to worlds. They wanted to give their favorite Takahashi the 5th place in order to let him have an exhibition spot. In a sense, Oda lost to Takahashi not by his mistakes but the judges chose to do so. If he wants to win, he must skate outstandingly and decisively (with the quads, of course).
- Joined
- Jun 16, 2010
I am surprised so many people predict the Zhangs to win. Even if Kavaguti & Smirnov are now only Russian #2 pair, when is the last time the Zhangs have beaten any top ranked team. 2009 Worlds probably. They couldnt even beat the Germans at Skate America with their clowning around, throwing crazy stunts, and making alot of mistakes, and totally blowing the short program. K&S will win unless they totally implode (they will probably make some mistakes, they arent the most consistent pair).
I agree. I actually believe that Sui/Han will also beat Zhang/Zhang, especially that they don't seem completely ready to compete yet(plus the judges buried them in Skate America with the scores in both programs). Not to mention the fact that K/S have a gorgeous LP. The only problem is that Yuko's jumps were bad at the russian skates, but I believe things have changed since then.
- Joined
- Jun 16, 2010
As for the idea the Chinese fed. would not let Sui & Han defeat the Zhangs I think just the opposite. The Chinese fed. are already looking to the future and will want to push their best hopes for the 2014 and maybe 2018 Olympics forward now. The Zhangs are no longer the Chinese federation favorite, in fact they now have probably fallen into the middle stepchild syndrome that Pang & Tong dealt with for many years. Pang & Tong are still expected to return at some point, be it for Worlds this year or sometimes by Sochi. Sui & Han are the young hotshots. The Zhangs failed to win a major title after many years of top support, and now have been dropped in the standings based on their 2010 results. I doubt they are who the Chinese federation are banking their hopes on at this point.
I am also surprised nearly everyone is picking Oda to win. I agree with the previous poster who said his stock is falling as well. Kozuka is the top Japanese man now, and Hanyu is their rising star. Takahashi is a former World Champion trying to get back in form. Oda is a veteran who hasnt medaled at Worlds yet. I also could see him off the podium here with Hanyu, Gaschinski, and Abbott all capable of beating him, although I think Oda will beat Abbott. Both Abbott and Oda will be hard pressed to make their World teams this year.
I am also surprised nearly everyone is picking Oda to win. I agree with the previous poster who said his stock is falling as well. Kozuka is the top Japanese man now, and Hanyu is their rising star. Takahashi is a former World Champion trying to get back in form. Oda is a veteran who hasnt medaled at Worlds yet. I also could see him off the podium here with Hanyu, Gaschinski, and Abbott all capable of beating him, although I think Oda will beat Abbott. Both Abbott and Oda will be hard pressed to make their World teams this year.
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I expect Abbott on the podium.
As I have not checked information about him for a while, I don't know how his jumps are these days. But I have a strong feeling that he is aiming for a stronger position not only at GPS but also at Worlds, trying more than one quad(even one in SP according to his condition).
I will leap with joy if he does two clean programs but one fall or equivalent mistake does not really matter. If he can do relatively clean SP and LP, he will get more PCS than others. So the highest place on the podium or on the podium. He tend to have a lot of transitions and the best skating skills in this field.
Oda/Gachinski/Hanyu have chance, of course.
Read Oda's interview and he sounds determined. It seems that his recent surgery did not affect his ability so much but who knows. Anyway, his biggest strength is jumps. He needs to held them together.
Gachinski and Hanyu has showed much improvement although I don't get so much hype about Hanyu, not yet. Their jumps are also strong. Therefore, if Abbott's jumps are messy, others will be hard to beat. It's on Abbott to fight back from very disappointing last year.
Can't wait to see COC!
As I have not checked information about him for a while, I don't know how his jumps are these days. But I have a strong feeling that he is aiming for a stronger position not only at GPS but also at Worlds, trying more than one quad(even one in SP according to his condition).
I will leap with joy if he does two clean programs but one fall or equivalent mistake does not really matter. If he can do relatively clean SP and LP, he will get more PCS than others. So the highest place on the podium or on the podium. He tend to have a lot of transitions and the best skating skills in this field.
Oda/Gachinski/Hanyu have chance, of course.
Read Oda's interview and he sounds determined. It seems that his recent surgery did not affect his ability so much but who knows. Anyway, his biggest strength is jumps. He needs to held them together.
Gachinski and Hanyu has showed much improvement although I don't get so much hype about Hanyu, not yet. Their jumps are also strong. Therefore, if Abbott's jumps are messy, others will be hard to beat. It's on Abbott to fight back from very disappointing last year.
Can't wait to see COC!
- Joined
- Dec 12, 2008
My predictions
Men
1. Yuzuru Hanyu
2. Nobunari Oda
3. Artur Gachinski
4. Jeremy Abbott
5. Richard Dornbush
Mens is a tough one. Hanyu scored well at Nebelhorn and attempting quads in both programs, he is on the rise. We haven't seen Oda yet this season, so it's hard to tell, but he seems solid during the GP's - he could easily take gold. Gachinski is also on the rise, so he could also place higher. Abbott is a question mark based on previous season - not having a reliable quad could hurt him, so I'm placing him off the podium.
Ladies
1. Adelina Sotnikova
2. Carolina Kostner
3. Kanako Murakami
4. Christina Gao
5. Mirai Nagasu
Another tough one. First I put Kostner on top, but then changed my mind, as I think it will be hard for her to do two that clean performances back-to-back. Sotnikova has been nursing a small injury, so she could place lower - but she's a very steady competitor (undefeated last season) and she looked OK at the test skates. Murakami has added tech difficulty so it will be hard for her to be clean. I'm hoping for Nagasu to do better, but it'll be hard for her to medal.
Pairs
1. Zhang/Zhang
2. Sui/Han
3. Kavaguti/Smirnov
4. Moore-Towers/Moscovitch
5. Evora/Ladwig
The podium depends on who skate the most clean. Kavaguti/Smirnov should get the highest PCS, but they have been struggling quite a lot with the technical element. Zhang/Zhang could be beaten by Sui/Han but maybe Sui/Han will suffer from doing back-to-back.
Ice Dance
1. Shibutani/Shibutani
2. Bobrova/Soloviev
3. Lichtman/Copely
4. Samuelson/Gilles
5. Huang/Zheng
Shibutani/Shibutani as they seem consistent. Perhaps they will make a mistake in the SD, but their FD is usually clean. I'm putting Bobrova/Soloviev in 2nd as they struggle w twizzles and their programs don't seem very well choreographed. Bronze is wide open but I'm picking Lichtman/Copely as the success of their training mates is ought to rub off.
Men
1. Yuzuru Hanyu
2. Nobunari Oda
3. Artur Gachinski
4. Jeremy Abbott
5. Richard Dornbush
Mens is a tough one. Hanyu scored well at Nebelhorn and attempting quads in both programs, he is on the rise. We haven't seen Oda yet this season, so it's hard to tell, but he seems solid during the GP's - he could easily take gold. Gachinski is also on the rise, so he could also place higher. Abbott is a question mark based on previous season - not having a reliable quad could hurt him, so I'm placing him off the podium.
Ladies
1. Adelina Sotnikova
2. Carolina Kostner
3. Kanako Murakami
4. Christina Gao
5. Mirai Nagasu
Another tough one. First I put Kostner on top, but then changed my mind, as I think it will be hard for her to do two that clean performances back-to-back. Sotnikova has been nursing a small injury, so she could place lower - but she's a very steady competitor (undefeated last season) and she looked OK at the test skates. Murakami has added tech difficulty so it will be hard for her to be clean. I'm hoping for Nagasu to do better, but it'll be hard for her to medal.
Pairs
1. Zhang/Zhang
2. Sui/Han
3. Kavaguti/Smirnov
4. Moore-Towers/Moscovitch
5. Evora/Ladwig
The podium depends on who skate the most clean. Kavaguti/Smirnov should get the highest PCS, but they have been struggling quite a lot with the technical element. Zhang/Zhang could be beaten by Sui/Han but maybe Sui/Han will suffer from doing back-to-back.
Ice Dance
1. Shibutani/Shibutani
2. Bobrova/Soloviev
3. Lichtman/Copely
4. Samuelson/Gilles
5. Huang/Zheng
Shibutani/Shibutani as they seem consistent. Perhaps they will make a mistake in the SD, but their FD is usually clean. I'm putting Bobrova/Soloviev in 2nd as they struggle w twizzles and their programs don't seem very well choreographed. Bronze is wide open but I'm picking Lichtman/Copely as the success of their training mates is ought to rub off.
- Joined
- May 19, 2011
Ladies:
1. Adelina Sotnikova - She's got the speed and tech content, plus her maturity and polish are better than any junior lady I've seen in a while. Her SP should score her nicely, though I am not a fan of her LP...to much skate-jump-skate-jump-skate-jump and not enough between. Still if she carries out the "jump" part, it will be tough for anyone to beat her.
2. Kanako Murakami - She's been looking stronger and more mature this year. Her programs are nice and she's upgraded her 3t-3t to a 3f-3t. If she can hit that and go mostly clean, I think she has a good shot at a silver medal.
3. Carolina Kostner - Carolina has won me over with her programs this year but I have serious doubts as to whether she can replicate her SA performances. However, if she is able to add a 3-3 to both programs, she may be able to edge Kanako and sneak into 2nd place or 1st depending on how Adelina does.
As for everyone else...
Christina Gao: She has big jumps and has matured a lot in the last two years. If she adds her 3f-3t to both programs instead of just the LP, she could make the podium.
Agnes Zawadski: Another strong jumper. Getting out from under Tom Z. may have helped her skating, but I haven't seen her yet so IDK...ETA: Agnes isn't competing here. She'll be at NHK...my mistake!
Ksenia Makarova: She just doesn't seem to be there this year. We'll know by the SP whether or not she'll be competitive here.
Mirai Nagasu: I'd hope that she'd be amped to compete here and make up for her poor showing at SC last week. Unfortunately, her "pray for a miracle" comments don't give me enough confidence in her. Ideally, I'd love to see her win here...but her attitude along with her LP don't amount to gold medal material IMO. :disapp: I would like to see her skate well though. If she can do that, she has a great shot at the podium.
1. Adelina Sotnikova - She's got the speed and tech content, plus her maturity and polish are better than any junior lady I've seen in a while. Her SP should score her nicely, though I am not a fan of her LP...to much skate-jump-skate-jump-skate-jump and not enough between. Still if she carries out the "jump" part, it will be tough for anyone to beat her.
2. Kanako Murakami - She's been looking stronger and more mature this year. Her programs are nice and she's upgraded her 3t-3t to a 3f-3t. If she can hit that and go mostly clean, I think she has a good shot at a silver medal.
3. Carolina Kostner - Carolina has won me over with her programs this year but I have serious doubts as to whether she can replicate her SA performances. However, if she is able to add a 3-3 to both programs, she may be able to edge Kanako and sneak into 2nd place or 1st depending on how Adelina does.
As for everyone else...
Christina Gao: She has big jumps and has matured a lot in the last two years. If she adds her 3f-3t to both programs instead of just the LP, she could make the podium.
Agnes Zawadski: Another strong jumper. Getting out from under Tom Z. may have helped her skating, but I haven't seen her yet so IDK...ETA: Agnes isn't competing here. She'll be at NHK...my mistake!
Ksenia Makarova: She just doesn't seem to be there this year. We'll know by the SP whether or not she'll be competitive here.
Mirai Nagasu: I'd hope that she'd be amped to compete here and make up for her poor showing at SC last week. Unfortunately, her "pray for a miracle" comments don't give me enough confidence in her. Ideally, I'd love to see her win here...but her attitude along with her LP don't amount to gold medal material IMO. :disapp: I would like to see her skate well though. If she can do that, she has a great shot at the podium.
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- Joined
- Mar 27, 2010
Agnes isn't competing here.
- Joined
- Aug 18, 2010
I do hope he could win but I don't think Jeremy could do two quads or do a quad in SP. Even in the height of his career which was 2009-2010, his one and only quad jump in LP was only about 30% successful. But I'm sure he'll have a quad in LP or he'll be self-eliminated from the top.
- Joined
- May 19, 2011
Oh...why did I think she was competing here?
Okay, she'll be at NHK, not COC. I was confused...
Thanks for pointing that out! :thumbsup:
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- Joined
- Mar 24, 2010
Men
1. Artur GACHINSKI (RUS)
2. Nobunari ODA (JPN)
3. Richard DORNBUSH (USA)
4. Jeremy ABBOTT (USA)
5. Yuzuru HANYU (JPN)
6. Kevin REYNOLDS (CAN)
Too bad Brian Joubert is out, he may not have won but he would have thrown a wrench in things.
Ladies
1. Carolina KOSTNER (ITA)
2. Adelina SOTNIKOVA (RUS)
3. Kanako MURAKAMI (JPN)
4. Bingwa GENG (CHN)
5. Mirai NAGASU (USA)
6. Ksenia MAKAROVA (RUS)
I really have no idea what order these ladies will place in. Anyone can move up or down and I'd be happy.
Pairs
1. Yuko KAVAGUTI / Alexander SMIRNOV (RUS)
2. Dan ZHANG / Hao ZHANG (CHN)
3. Wenjing SUI / Cong HAN (CHN)
4. Kirsten MOORE-TOWERS / Dylan MOSCOVITCH (CAN)
5. Amanda EVORA / Mark LADWIG (USA)
6. Xiaoyu YU / Yang JIN (CHN)
Based on the prior scores of the other teams K/S should have no trouble winning. The highest total scores for these competitors in S/H with 180.82 and K/S should have no trouble beating that (unless the Chinese really get a boost.) Some did compete last week so that may have an effect.
Also with this being K/S 1st of 3 competitions they may want to try new things with their choreography for the short program (ala S/S) Smirnov said it was changed from the test skates (not that you can go by how any team looks by a test skate) but with the long staying the same, they should be pretty comfortable, except for the new lifts.
Dance
1. Maia SHIBUTANI / Alex SHIBUTANI (USA)
2. Ekaterina BOBROVA / Dmitri SOLOVIEV (RUS)
3. Emily SAMUELSON / Todd GILLES (USA)
4. Pernelle CARRON / Lloyd JONES (FRA)
5. Penny COOMES / Nicholas BUCKLAND (GBR)
6. Charlotte LICHTMAN / Dean COPELY (USA)
I think bronze is up from grabs but the top two should be S/S and B/S.
1. Artur GACHINSKI (RUS)
2. Nobunari ODA (JPN)
3. Richard DORNBUSH (USA)
4. Jeremy ABBOTT (USA)
5. Yuzuru HANYU (JPN)
6. Kevin REYNOLDS (CAN)
Too bad Brian Joubert is out, he may not have won but he would have thrown a wrench in things.
Ladies
1. Carolina KOSTNER (ITA)
2. Adelina SOTNIKOVA (RUS)
3. Kanako MURAKAMI (JPN)
4. Bingwa GENG (CHN)
5. Mirai NAGASU (USA)
6. Ksenia MAKAROVA (RUS)
I really have no idea what order these ladies will place in. Anyone can move up or down and I'd be happy.
Pairs
1. Yuko KAVAGUTI / Alexander SMIRNOV (RUS)
2. Dan ZHANG / Hao ZHANG (CHN)
3. Wenjing SUI / Cong HAN (CHN)
4. Kirsten MOORE-TOWERS / Dylan MOSCOVITCH (CAN)
5. Amanda EVORA / Mark LADWIG (USA)
6. Xiaoyu YU / Yang JIN (CHN)
Based on the prior scores of the other teams K/S should have no trouble winning. The highest total scores for these competitors in S/H with 180.82 and K/S should have no trouble beating that (unless the Chinese really get a boost.) Some did compete last week so that may have an effect.
Also with this being K/S 1st of 3 competitions they may want to try new things with their choreography for the short program (ala S/S) Smirnov said it was changed from the test skates (not that you can go by how any team looks by a test skate) but with the long staying the same, they should be pretty comfortable, except for the new lifts.
Dance
1. Maia SHIBUTANI / Alex SHIBUTANI (USA)
2. Ekaterina BOBROVA / Dmitri SOLOVIEV (RUS)
3. Emily SAMUELSON / Todd GILLES (USA)
4. Pernelle CARRON / Lloyd JONES (FRA)
5. Penny COOMES / Nicholas BUCKLAND (GBR)
6. Charlotte LICHTMAN / Dean COPELY (USA)
I think bronze is up from grabs but the top two should be S/S and B/S.
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2010
I think if the Chinese Federation were smart 
they would get behind both teams equally. Z/Z are much better for now, they have beat S/H twice now this season and unless his finger gets bad again I don't see S/H surpassing them this season.
As far as the future goes, Z/Z are pretty young, people think because they have been around a long time they are old when actually they are younger that most of the top teams. They will be 33 in 2018, not ancient for pairs as S/Z show everyone and S/S are about to show. Look at how old Robin is now? Trankov is actually older than Hao Zhang.
S/H on the other hand has the opposite problem. People are waiting to see if she'll grow, if she does, she will have to find a new partner if she wants to continue. She is only 16 so time will tell.
they would get behind both teams equally. Z/Z are much better for now, they have beat S/H twice now this season and unless his finger gets bad again I don't see S/H surpassing them this season. As far as the future goes, Z/Z are pretty young, people think because they have been around a long time they are old when actually they are younger that most of the top teams. They will be 33 in 2018, not ancient for pairs as S/Z show everyone and S/S are about to show. Look at how old Robin is now? Trankov is actually older than Hao Zhang.
S/H on the other hand has the opposite problem. People are waiting to see if she'll grow, if she does, she will have to find a new partner if she wants to continue. She is only 16 so time will tell.
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