Jinlin GUAN (CHN) withdrew from CoC. Only 8 men entries left...
I'm surprised to see that everyone is so sure the Shibs will run away with the gold easily. They were only 3 points higher than B/S at Worlds 2011(and B/S made a mistake on the circular step sequence). They are my pick for the gold too, but I am not 100% convinced they have it in their bag.(I wanted to say that the Shibs SD is not very good, but neither is B/S SD). I think it will be close and I won't be surprised is B/S win it
Even if it wasn't going to be B/S debut of the season I would still expect S/S to win. Not by a D/W V/M margin like a third of a DWVM margin. Something like what P/B has over the rest of the field.
i am not going to predict-because the last 2 got me.
1) the men can go for at least 5 arthur gachinski, brian joubert, nobunari oda, yuzuru hany, jeremy abbot
2) the women can go at least 6 -adelina, carolina kostner, kanako, ksenia, christina, and mirai with maybe a chinese lady
3) the pairs can go zhang/zhang, kavaguti /smirnov, sui/han, mooretowers, moscovitch, evora ladwig
4) the dance is shibutanie/ bobrova soloviev wth copely lichtman, samuleson giles, carron jones, combes buckland, and a chinese team.
for me anyone balls game in the events
If they're absolutely clean yes, B/S have a chance of beating the Shibs. Problem is, they weren't all that clean last year. They tend to make these little mistakes, in particular those twizzles.
Originally Posted by Mirunna
And even with a very, very harsh tech panel in Finlandia the Shibs still scored relatively well, which I think puts them in a good position for this event.
- * -
1) Oda 2) Hanyu 3) Gachinski or Abbott
I wish Joubert hadn't withdrew.
1) Kostner 2) Sotnikova 3) Murakami
Of course if the good Mirai shows up, she could be on the podium..
1) Kavaguti/Smirnov 2) Zhang/Zhang 3) Sui/Han or Moore-Towers/Moscovitch
1) Shibutanis 2) Bobrova/Soloviev 3) Samuelson/Gilles (a wild card since I haven't even seen them skate, but SOUND promising) or Carron/Jones
It would be nice to see Carron/Jones get a medal.
Nobunari underwent a knee surgery during the off-season and hasn't competed in any summer competitions so his condition is a bit of a question mark. That said, a fellow poster at BoI mentioned that judging from Nobu's practice session in Canada, his new LP (choreographed by Sebastian Britten) is impressive.
Originally Posted by jChamp
I really want the two long suffering brilliant skaters, Oda and Abbott, to bring it and not do themselves in, and to win some well deserved medals and honours. This is probably do or die year for both, with the new wave of high jumping youngsters coming on. They have everything, TES and PCS abilities, while the next ones still need polishing. Come on, Nabu and Jeremy, keep your cool and show 'em how it's done.
If the veterans can keep their heads together, they should take Gold and Silver, leaving Bronze to Gachinski or Hanyu. I have a feeling Cachinski has a mental advantage over the Japanese prodigy.
Exactly one year ago, the reigning world bronze medalist Joubert was demoted from the top rank at Cup of China. I expect something similar could happen to Oda and Abbott. Oda's eighth or ninth folly must have made the judges and the federation really irritated and to give up any hopes on him. He has passed up the last realistic chance to win a world medal. Hanyu's rise will set him as the #4 Japanese, which will cost him in the PCS. Also I suspect he's not fully recovered from the injury in summer. His quad is only 1/3 in the success rate even at his best. Quadless Oda with second rate PCS can't be considered the favorite. Abbott is in the same situation but he is actually worse off after missing the world team and losing to 16 y.o. Hanyu at 4CC. Both Oda and Abbott must face new stars from their countries. That will add extra pressures like students taking the final exams.
Judging from Skate Canada, the ISU is decided to change the lineup of "top" skaters in this GP season. Who follows Fernandez? Undoubtedly a quad-included SP is the standard of the top skater of the new quad era. The winner should be Hanyu or Gachinski. Hanyu will score higher if both of them skate cleanly or with same degree of errors by higher base values and GOE.
In spite of all the very authoritative talks about politics and judges' preconceptions, Oda's protocols do not support such theory. He has always been properly credited for what he does, as long as they are legal. He is docked for Zayaking according to the IJS, no more no less. Granted I find such penalty way to severe but we can't rewrite history or apply any future changes retroactively. He has to comply with whatever rules he competes under, just like everybody else. So, in the end, he is responsible for repeatedly losing medals he should have won. With a well designed and practiced program, he could just snatch the gold as long as he doesn't find a new way to lose!
Oda and Abbott may face new stars from their countries, but in COC, they face the other competitors in the same event. I doubt they will be thinking about the Nationals while in China. This is not an end-of-season major event when Abbott is prone to blow his jumps, and his boot problems of last year are reportedly resolved, so it's not unlikely that he will perform well.
Oda's protocols support that he is not favored by the judges. Oda has lost to Takahashi twice by very small margins in last season. At Skate America, Oda totaly outjumped Takahashi by 15 points higher jump scores EVEN excluding 8 points lost by his usual error. The judges just could use his folly as an excuse to put him as an second rate skater deserves. The same reasoning applies to worlds. They wanted to give their favorite Takahashi the 5th place in order to let him have an exhibition spot. In a sense, Oda lost to Takahashi not by his mistakes but the judges chose to do so. If he wants to win, he must skate outstandingly and decisively (with the quads, of course).
I am surprised so many people predict the Zhangs to win. Even if Kavaguti & Smirnov are now only Russian #2 pair, when is the last time the Zhangs have beaten any top ranked team. 2009 Worlds probably. They couldnt even beat the Germans at Skate America with their clowning around, throwing crazy stunts, and making alot of mistakes, and totally blowing the short program. K&S will win unless they totally implode (they will probably make some mistakes, they arent the most consistent pair).
I agree. I actually believe that Sui/Han will also beat Zhang/Zhang, especially that they don't seem completely ready to compete yet(plus the judges buried them in Skate America with the scores in both programs). Not to mention the fact that K/S have a gorgeous LP. The only problem is that Yuko's jumps were bad at the russian skates, but I believe things have changed since then.
Originally Posted by pangtongfan