Cup of China Predictions

[pangtongfan]

As for the idea the Chinese fed. would not let Sui & Han defeat the Zhangs I think just the opposite. The Chinese fed. are already looking to the future and will want to push their best hopes for the 2014 and maybe 2018 Olympics forward now. The Zhangs are no longer the Chinese federation favorite, in fact they now have probably fallen into the middle stepchild syndrome that Pang & Tong dealt with for many years. Pang & Tong are still expected to return at some point, be it for Worlds this year or sometimes by Sochi. Sui & Han are the young hotshots. The Zhangs failed to win a major title after many years of top support, and now have been dropped in the standings based on their 2010 results. I doubt they are who the Chinese federation are banking their hopes on at this point.

I am also surprised nearly everyone is picking Oda to win. I agree with the previous poster who said his stock is falling as well. Kozuka is the top Japanese man now, and Hanyu is their rising star. Takahashi is a former World Champion trying to get back in form. Oda is a veteran who hasnt medaled at Worlds yet. I also could see him off the podium here with Hanyu, Gaschinski, and Abbott all capable of beating him, although I think Oda will beat Abbott. Both Abbott and Oda will be hard pressed to make their World teams this year.

[sunny0760]

I expect Abbott on the podium.
As I have not checked information about him for a while, I don't know how his jumps are these days. But I have a strong feeling that he is aiming for a stronger position not only at GPS but also at Worlds, trying more than one quad(even one in SP according to his condition).
I will leap with joy if he does two clean programs but one fall or equivalent mistake does not really matter. If he can do relatively clean SP and LP, he will get more PCS than others. So the highest place on the podium or on the podium. He tend to have a lot of transitions and the best skating skills in this field.

Oda/Gachinski/Hanyu have chance, of course.
Read Oda's interview and he sounds determined. It seems that his recent surgery did not affect his ability so much but who knows. Anyway, his biggest strength is jumps. He needs to held them together.

Gachinski and Hanyu has showed much improvement although I don't get so much hype about Hanyu, not yet. Their jumps are also strong. Therefore, if Abbott's jumps are messy, others will be hard to beat. It's on Abbott to fight back from very disappointing last year.

Can't wait to see COC!

[sequinsgalore]

My predictions

Men
1. Yuzuru Hanyu
2. Nobunari Oda
3. Artur Gachinski
4. Jeremy Abbott
5. Richard Dornbush

Mens is a tough one. Hanyu scored well at Nebelhorn and attempting quads in both programs, he is on the rise. We haven't seen Oda yet this season, so it's hard to tell, but he seems solid during the GP's - he could easily take gold. Gachinski is also on the rise, so he could also place higher. Abbott is a question mark based on previous season - not having a reliable quad could hurt him, so I'm placing him off the podium.

Ladies
1. Adelina Sotnikova
2. Carolina Kostner
3. Kanako Murakami
4. Christina Gao
5. Mirai Nagasu

Another tough one. First I put Kostner on top, but then changed my mind, as I think it will be hard for her to do two that clean performances back-to-back. Sotnikova has been nursing a small injury, so she could place lower - but she's a very steady competitor (undefeated last season) and she looked OK at the test skates. Murakami has added tech difficulty so it will be hard for her to be clean. I'm hoping for Nagasu to do better, but it'll be hard for her to medal.

Pairs
1. Zhang/Zhang
2. Sui/Han
3. Kavaguti/Smirnov
4. Moore-Towers/Moscovitch
5. Evora/Ladwig

The podium depends on who skate the most clean. Kavaguti/Smirnov should get the highest PCS, but they have been struggling quite a lot with the technical element. Zhang/Zhang could be beaten by Sui/Han but maybe Sui/Han will suffer from doing back-to-back.

Ice Dance
1. Shibutani/Shibutani
2. Bobrova/Soloviev
3. Lichtman/Copely
4. Samuelson/Gilles
5. Huang/Zheng

Shibutani/Shibutani as they seem consistent. Perhaps they will make a mistake in the SD, but their FD is usually clean. I'm putting Bobrova/Soloviev in 2nd as they struggle w twizzles and their programs don't seem very well choreographed. Bronze is wide open but I'm picking Lichtman/Copely as the success of their training mates is ought to rub off.

[kwanatic]

Ladies:

1. Adelina Sotnikova - She's got the speed and tech content, plus her maturity and polish are better than any junior lady I've seen in a while. Her SP should score her nicely, though I am not a fan of her LP...to much skate-jump-skate-jump-skate-jump and not enough between. Still if she carries out the "jump" part, it will be tough for anyone to beat her.

2. Kanako Murakami - She's been looking stronger and more mature this year. Her programs are nice and she's upgraded her 3t-3t to a 3f-3t. If she can hit that and go mostly clean, I think she has a good shot at a silver medal.

3. Carolina Kostner - Carolina has won me over with her programs this year but I have serious doubts as to whether she can replicate her SA performances. However, if she is able to add a 3-3 to both programs, she may be able to edge Kanako and sneak into 2nd place or 1st depending on how Adelina does.

As for everyone else...

Christina Gao: She has big jumps and has matured a lot in the last two years. If she adds her 3f-3t to both programs instead of just the LP, she could make the podium.

Agnes Zawadski: Another strong jumper. Getting out from under Tom Z. may have helped her skating, but I haven't seen her yet so IDK...ETA: Agnes isn't competing here. She'll be at NHK...my mistake!

Ksenia Makarova: She just doesn't seem to be there this year. We'll know by the SP whether or not she'll be competitive here.

Mirai Nagasu: I'd hope that she'd be amped to compete here and make up for her poor showing at SC last week. Unfortunately, her "pray for a miracle" comments don't give me enough confidence in her. Ideally, I'd love to see her win here...but her attitude along with her LP don't amount to gold medal material IMO. I would like to see her skate well though. If she can do that, she has a great shot at the podium.

[wallylutz]

Ice Dance

1 Ekaterina BOBROVA / Dmitri SOLOVIEV RUS (RUS)
2 Maia SHIBUTANI / Alex SHIBUTANI (USA)
3 Pernelle CARRON / Lloyd JONES (FRA)

[burntBREAD]

Ladies:

1. Adelina Sotnikova - She's got the speed and tech content, plus her maturity and polish are better than any junior lady I've seen in a while. Her SP should score her nicely, though I am not a fan of her LP...to much skate-jump-skate-jump-skate-jump and not enough between. Still if she carries out the "jump" part, it will be tough for anyone to beat her.

2. Kanako Murakami - She's been looking stronger and more mature this year. Her programs are nice and she's upgraded her 3t-3t to a 3f-3t. If she can hit that and go mostly clean, I think she has a good shot at a silver medal.

3. Carolina Kostner - Carolina has won me over with her programs this year but I have serious doubts as to whether she can replicate her SA performances. However, if she is able to add a 3-3 to both programs, she may be able to edge Kanako and sneak into 2nd place or 1st depending on how Adelina does.

As for everyone else...

Christina Gao: She has big jumps and has matured a lot in the last two years. If she adds her 3f-3t to both programs instead of just the LP, she could make the podium.

Agnes Zawadski: Another strong jumper. Getting out from under Tom Z. may have helped her skating, but I haven't seen her yet so IDK...

Ksenia Makarova: She just doesn't seem to be there this year. We'll know by the SP whether or not she'll be competitive here.

Mirai Nagasu: I'd hope that she'd be amped to compete here and make up for her poor showing at SC last week. Unfortunately, her "pray for a miracle" comments don't give me enough confidence in her. Ideally, I'd love to see her win here...but her attitude along with her LP don't amount to gold medal material IMO. I would like to see her skate well though. If she can do that, she has a great shot at the podium.

Agnes isn't competing here.

[Bluebonnet]

I expect Abbott on the podium.
As I have not checked information about him for a while, I don't know how his jumps are these days. But I have a strong feeling that he is aiming for a stronger position not only at GPS but also at Worlds, trying more than one quad(even one in SP according to his condition).
I will leap with joy if he does two clean programs but one fall or equivalent mistake does not really matter. If he can do relatively clean SP and LP, he will get more PCS than others. So the highest place on the podium or on the podium. He tend to have a lot of transitions and the best skating skills in this field.

I do hope he could win but I don't think Jeremy could do two quads or do a quad in SP. Even in the height of his career which was 2009-2010, his one and only quad jump in LP was only about 30% successful. But I'm sure he'll have a quad in LP or he'll be self-eliminated from the top.

[kwanatic]

Agnes isn't competing here.

Oh...why did I think she was competing here?

Okay, she'll be at NHK, not COC. I was confused...

Thanks for pointing that out!

[mousepotato]

Men

1. Artur GACHINSKI (RUS)
2. Nobunari ODA (JPN)
3. Richard DORNBUSH (USA)
4. Jeremy ABBOTT (USA)
5. Yuzuru HANYU (JPN)
6. Kevin REYNOLDS (CAN)

Too bad Brian Joubert is out, he may not have won but he would have thrown a wrench in things.

Ladies

1. Carolina KOSTNER (ITA)
2. Adelina SOTNIKOVA (RUS)
3. Kanako MURAKAMI (JPN)
4. Bingwa GENG (CHN)
5. Mirai NAGASU (USA)
6. Ksenia MAKAROVA (RUS)

I really have no idea what order these ladies will place in. Anyone can move up or down and I'd be happy.

Pairs

1. Yuko KAVAGUTI / Alexander SMIRNOV (RUS)
2. Dan ZHANG / Hao ZHANG (CHN)
3. Wenjing SUI / Cong HAN (CHN)
4. Kirsten MOORE-TOWERS / Dylan MOSCOVITCH (CAN)
5. Amanda EVORA / Mark LADWIG (USA)
6. Xiaoyu YU / Yang JIN (CHN)

Based on the prior scores of the other teams K/S should have no trouble winning. The highest total scores for these competitors in S/H with 180.82 and K/S should have no trouble beating that (unless the Chinese really get a boost.) Some did compete last week so that may have an effect.

Also with this being K/S 1st of 3 competitions they may want to try new things with their choreography for the short program (ala S/S) Smirnov said it was changed from the test skates (not that you can go by how any team looks by a test skate) but with the long staying the same, they should be pretty comfortable, except for the new lifts.

Dance

1. Maia SHIBUTANI / Alex SHIBUTANI (USA)
2. Ekaterina BOBROVA / Dmitri SOLOVIEV (RUS)
3. Emily SAMUELSON / Todd GILLES (USA)
4. Pernelle CARRON / Lloyd JONES (FRA)
5. Penny COOMES / Nicholas BUCKLAND (GBR)
6. Charlotte LICHTMAN / Dean COPELY (USA)

I think bronze is up from grabs but the top two should be S/S and B/S.

[mousepotato]

I think if the Chinese Federation were smart they would get behind both teams equally. Z/Z are much better for now, they have beat S/H twice now this season and unless his finger gets bad again I don't see S/H surpassing them this season.

As far as the future goes, Z/Z are pretty young, people think because they have been around a long time they are old when actually they are younger that most of the top teams. They will be 33 in 2018, not ancient for pairs as S/Z show everyone and S/S are about to show. Look at how old Robin is now? Trankov is actually older than Hao Zhang.

S/H on the other hand has the opposite problem. People are waiting to see if she'll grow, if she does, she will have to find a new partner if she wants to continue. She is only 16 so time will tell.

[wonderlen3000]

I am also surprised nearly everyone is picking Oda to win. I agree with the previous poster who said his stock is falling as well. Kozuka is the top Japanese man now, and Hanyu is their rising star. Takahashi is a former World Champion trying to get back in form. Oda is a veteran who hasnt medaled at Worlds yet. I also could see him off the podium here with Hanyu, Gaschinski, and Abbott all capable of beating him, although I think Oda will beat Abbott. Both Abbott and Oda will be hard pressed to make their World teams this year.

Oda is usually strong GP skater, where the pressure is light. But once the pressure on the world is on, he crumbles. He would have been multiple world medalist, if itn't for his 'Silly' counting jumps mistake. The number of times he screw by loosing point due to extra jump is just epic.

[Spun Silver]

I'm picking Hanyu, Dornbush and Gachinski. Sorry to say my hopes for Jeremy and Oda are fading. Prove me wrong, old guns!

[Jammers]

I think if the Chinese Federation were smart they would get behind both teams equally. Z/Z are much better for now, they have beat S/H twice now this season and unless his finger gets bad again I don't see S/H surpassing them this season.

As far as the future goes, Z/Z are pretty young, people think because they have been around a long time they are old when actually they are younger that most of the top teams. They will be 33 in 2018, not ancient for pairs as S/Z show everyone and S/S are about to show. Look at how old Robin is now? Trankov is actually older than Hao Zhang.

S/H on the other hand has the opposite problem. People are waiting to see if she'll grow, if she does, she will have to find a new partner if she wants to continue. She is only 16 so time will tell.

But Z/Z don't have the skills that S/S have and they never will. They will continue to be stuck where they are at and will start regressing soon.

[mousepotato]

But Z/Z don't have the skills that S/S have and they never will. They will continue to be stuck where they are at and will start regressing soon.

Most skaters won't and never will have the skills of S/S but that doesn't mean they shouldn't try. Most everyone counted the Zhangs out after Worlds 2010 and never thought they would be back after the injury. Now look at them; they are on their way to having a pretty good season for all they have been through.

They are China's #1 team and until S/H prove themselves more, the Chinese Federation have no reason to dump one of the two teams who gets results for the country. Being 4th or even 5th in the Worlds is not a bad place to be. They may as well take advantage of it for as long as they can, they're still young.

[kwanatic]

Ladies Predictions!

http://thenakedice.blogspot.com/2011...edictions.html