Short Dance Cup of China

[chuckm]

Interesting that you mention the judging panel. The panel actually looks quite favorable to the Shibs. 5 out 9 are 4CC judges with the Europeans being a minority here. Plus, only two judges out of 9 have an incentive to mark the Shibs down (FRA, RUS) and two judges have an incentive to mark the Shibs high (USA, JPN). Further to that, the referee is British, the Controller is the current head of Ice Dance technical committee from Poland (whose election was favored over the wife of Russian Fed), the technical specialist is Australian. As far as Ice Dance is concerned, it's hard for a North American team to get a better panel than this. I will note that with Ms. Gordon Poltorak as the Controller, one should expect more strict calls on the elements but that could turn out to be a good thing in the long run.

There are 3 judges from former SSRs on the panel, and the Assistant Tech Spec (DURNEV) is Russian. Look at the PCS scores and you can see scores in the 9s from 3 judges for Bobrova/Soloviev. Three judges gave the Shibs PCS scores in the upper 6s and low 7s while the other judges gave the Shibs higher scores than that.

Three judges working together do have the power to affect placements.

So I am not looking for "messages" from this panel of judges. What I am seeing is an effort to give Bobrova/Soloviev a good push upward. They are at this point the top Russian team and it is not the first time we have seen a Russia #1 given a huge score boost.

[dorispulaski]

From IN, which granted is not the arena, this was just a badly skated event for all the teams, and really all the scores are rather high for what the teams did, IMO.

[Mrs. P]

This was discussed before, the Shibs beat Weaver/Poje at last year's 4CC because W/P crashed & burned in the FD. They led the Shibs going into the FD in fact and would have beaten them if they had simply skated clean even if the skate was otherwise, just average.

The fact is that W/P had been making little mistakes all year long from the beginning of the GP until 4CC. And so were the Shibs, but the managed solid programs both during 4CC (more the FS than the SD, if I recall correctly) and Worlds.

I love how everyone is saying the Shibs are not really good but got where they are because of help from other pairs. Well that's part of skating folks. It's not the Shibs fault that W/P crashed and burned at 4CC or that B/S and P/B fell at Worlds. And it's frustrating to see that their detractors are unwilling to acknowledge the progress they made during the season.

I think the Shibs are well aware that they are not going to stay on the podium unless they work it. And just because they "can't do Latin" now doesn't mean they won't be able to when it really counts.

[dorispulaski]

Just because the Shibs did not do Latin particularly well last night does not mean they will never do Latin well.

In fact, they didn't do a bad Latin in 2005 as intermediates at US Junior Nationals.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N6NrB23vPx8

The commentator is Nancy Kerrigan.

[Mrs. P]

Just because the Shibs did not do Latin particularly well last night does not mean they will never do Latin well.

In fact, they didn't do a bad Latin in 2005 as intermediates at US Junior Nationals.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N6NrB23vPx8

I love watching that video. So cute to see Maia's interview at the end.

[chloepoco]

I love watching that video. So cute to see Maia's interview at the end.

The maturity in that interview is amazing!

[wallylutz]

There are 3 judges from former SSRs on the panel, and the Assistant Tech Spec (DURNEV) is Russian. Look at the PCS scores and you can see scores in the 9s from 3 judges for Bobrova/Soloviev. Three judges gave the Shibs PCS scores in the upper 6s and low 7s while the other judges gave the Shibs higher scores than that.

I don't know about the UZB judge, but the Ukrainian judge was/is not a Russian satellite by any definition. This same judge was at the Vancouver Olympics and scored fairly much in line with the majority who had V/M and D/W way ahead of Domnina/Shabalin. The only outlier in that event came from, you guessed it, Alla SHEKHOVTSOVA, the woman who would have an "Open for Business" sign printed on her forehead if elected the head of Ice Dance Technical Committee.

Three judges working together do have the power to affect placements.

Doubtful, the score is an average of 7 scores with 2 of the highest and lowest thrown out (out of 9 judges in this case). One judge gave the Shibs 9 across the board for PCS and if that judge is American, I don't want to be in his position because being cited for national bias is not fun. Even if those 9 are removed as the highest score, such outlier still had an impact (positive) on the Shibs score, allowing another set of above average score to be kept. In this case, it may be useful to look at the median PCS score to get a more meaningful idea for each component if you suspect that the panel may be somewhat polarized (where average score is less meaningful (e.g. (9+6)/2 will produce a number that is neither 9 or 6). Shibs's median score are as follows:

SS: 7.75
LF/M: 7.50
PE: 7.75
CH: 7.75
IN: 7.50

What the median score shows us is that an average, non-partial judge would give the Shibs 7 across the board. But the median score tracks the average score very closely here. If there is anomaly, there isn't evidence supporting such theory.

[chuckm]

You are forgetting that not all the scores are counted. Only 8 scores of the 9 are selected, and then the highest and lowest scores are thrown out. So in the end, only 6 scores count. If 3 of those 6 are UKR, UZB and RUS, then you might expect the huge difference in score between B/S and S/S.

[wallylutz]

You are forgetting that not all the scores are counted. Only 8 scores of the 9 are selected, and then the highest and lowest scores are thrown out. So in the end, only 6 scores count. If 3 of those 6 are UKR, UZB and RUS, then you might expect the huge difference in score between B/S and S/S.

Nope, your information is outdated. Starting in the 2010-11 season, the ISU Congress passed a proposal forwarded by Skate Canada that there is no longer a random withdraw of any judges scores of all the judges present. If there are 9 judges present, the average score will contain 7 data points. If there are 8 judges, then the number will be 6, so on so forth.

[gmyers]

Shibutani's levels were so way down from the norm. I bet they will get that corrected for the FD and maybe a win is still possible. B/S levels were very good on all elements. I was looking at worlds 2010 and they got level 4 on everything in the FD. They are boring but get levels. Their music was different and not as upbeat.

[wallylutz]

Shibutani's levels were so way down from the norm. I bet they will get that corrected for the FD and maybe a win is still possible. B/S levels were very good on all elements. I was looking at worlds 2010 and they got level 4 on everything in the FD. They are boring but get levels. Their music was different and not as upbeat.

At this point, if Shibs can win the FD, it would already be a vindication. Winning or not overall is secondary. Why? Because if they can convincingly win the FD, then it stands to reason their weakness is only in the SD and therefore, that's what they will focus on. But if they also lost the FD and ended up 10+ points behind the Russians overall, that will be troubling because with a difference of 10+ points, there are still a lot of teams that can be parked in-between this range and it will make you wonder who else could be there.

[chuckm]

Please. It is EARLY in the season and a score or placement in early November has little or no bearing on what will happen at Worlds. It is what teams learn from their early outings and how they improve that counts.

[100yen]

This was discussed before, the Shibs beat Weaver/Poje at last year's 4CC because W/P crashed & burned in the FD. They led the Shibs going into the FD in fact and would have beaten them if they had simply skated clean even if the skate was otherwise, just average.

There's no "if only"s in skating. What happened happened. Teams make mistakes and you can never have known what would have happened otherwise...it's the nature of the sport.

[wallylutz]

Please. It is EARLY in the season and a score or placement in early November has little or no bearing on what will happen at Worlds. It is what teams learn from their early outings and how they improve that counts.

You are free to believe whatever you feel like. There are examples of both, a team can do poorly in GP and do well later or another team (e.g. Belbin/Agosto) got their writing on the wall starting from their final year on the GP circuit, leading them to lose in U.S. Nationals against D/W who had an outstanding GP season, and then missed out the Olympic podium.

[Mrs. P]

You are free to believe whatever you feel like. There are examples of both, a team can do poorly in GP and do well later or another team (e.g. Belbin/Agosto) got their writing on the wall starting from their final year on the GP circuit, leading them to lose in U.S. Nationals against D/W who had an outstanding GP season, and then missed out the Olympic podium.

There was quite a bit of chatter, I recall, that B/A got the short end of the stick because their coaches put more focus on DomShabs. I don't think the Shibs are in the same position, despite the fact that they have a million teammates (or it seems that way, anyway).

I would like to clarify that I don't blindly think the Shibs is a secure No. 3. But I see their true competition being C/L, P/B and W/P, ultimately. I think B/S and I/K can also fall in this group -- if they are not so sloppy. I have been less than impressed by their technique thus far (i.e. watching Russian previews and this competition).

ETA: I know B/S is in first and heck may win this -- but if they don't improve the sloppiness, I'm not sure if their scores will improve much further.