Short Dance Cup of China

[wallylutz]

There was quite a bit of chatter, I recall, that B/A got the short end of the stick because their coaches put more focus on DomShabs. I don't think the Shibs are in the same position, despite the fact that they have a million teammates (or it seems that way, anyway).

I didn't buy that. DomShabs didn't do terribly well even if they had all their coaches' attention. B/A had some real issues with their material. Plus, Zueva/Shpilband have no trouble managing the top 2 teams of the world for the last 2 years, which further put that divided focus theory in doubt.

I would like to clarify that I don't blindly think the Shibs is a secure No. 3. But I see their true competition being C/L, P/B and W/P, ultimately. I think B/S and I/K can also fall in this group -- if they are not so sloppy. I have been less than impressed by their technique thus far (i.e. watching Russian previews and this competition).

On the substance of the skate, I tend to agree that B/S's SD in Shanghai left me lukewarm regarding their composition, interpretation and the precision of their technique. What should also be considered in Ice Dance is an analysis of the "off ice push". The United States traditionally spend very little of its political capital in support of its ice dance teams. Whatever political clout the USFS has, it is spent to on ladies and ladies alone. USFS only cares about finding and building the next Michelle Kwan because then, all their financial woes will magically disappear. Some could argue Alissa's win at Skate America was an evidence of that. The USFS will obviously support and continue to support D/W but it is going to be hard for them to push both teams at the same time because there are other countries like France, Russia and Italy who are simply more hungry about Ice Dance than the U.S. will ever be.

On paper, B/S have been somewhat flat in the last two years. Their 2010 OD remained my favorite program from them - but being the top team from Russia is and always will be a tremendous advantage. Russia is throwing all their resources for Sochi 2014 and don't think for a second they are satisfied with just a Bronze medal in Sochi. Without a doubt, they are aiming for Gold. So the way I look at these marks based on the actual skate put out there, I don't question them finishing 1st here in the SD - what I find curious is that it seems the foundation is being set to push B/S further up. Therefore, you ought to include B/S in that group fighting for Bronze at Worlds this year. To do any otherwise is to ignore the reality of Ice Dance world.

ETA: I know B/S is in first and heck may win this -- but if they don't improve the sloppiness, I'm not sure if their scores will improve much further.

In an ideal world, that's true. Being the #1 Russian team however changes the formula quite a bit however.

[chuckm]

B/S at their best aren't any too good. If you're saying it's OK for them to become Olympic champions because Russia wants it badly, then you can't possibly be a real ice dance fan. In my book, it sucks when a federation manages somehow to stack judging panels with Russian supporters so as to ensure that the Russian #1 becomes World and/or Olympic #1.

Why overhaul a judging system if the end result is the same as what we had under 6.0?

[FlattFan]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VAvV3...eature=related

The Brits thought S/S should score so close, if not better than B/S after the short dance. And they noticed all of their flaws and speed problem, too. Oh well, B/S are massively overscored. What's new?

[wallylutz]

B/S at their best aren't any too good. If you're saying it's OK for them to become Olympic champions because Russia wants it badly, then you can't possibly be a real ice dance fan. In my book, it sucks when a federation manages somehow to stack judging panels with Russian supporters so as to ensure that the Russian #1 becomes World and/or Olympic #1.

Why overhaul a judging system if the end result is the same as what we had under 6.0?

That's not at all what I said. Please don't put words in my mouth. In this world, there is ideal and there is reality. Judging system is a tool, and a tool can be improved, more efficient, accurate, fair and less error-prone. To this end, Ice Dance has greatly benefited from CoP, much more so than Singles and Pairs. The reality is, Figure Skating - all four of its disciplines are big "businesses" in Russia. Skaters are more like employees than athletes and their career are taken care off largely by the State. For the State to protect its investments, they will do whatever they can. Is there way to shield the sport 100% against that? Unfortunately, the answer is no. I didn't choose to make a prediction only in Ice Dance at Cup of China for no good reason and picking B/S to be the winner. Please note, I am using Russia an example. By no means does this imply they are the only ones who are influential off the ice. I am probably spilling too many beans already so if I offend the feelings of anyone re: Ice Dance, I apologize, feel free to ignore what I just shared.

[CARA]

^ Great! What's the point of working hard when the outcome is largely fixed?
And what's the point of staying up late and watching figure skating when the outcome is largely fixed?..

[wallylutz]

^ Great! What's the point of working hard when the outcome is largely fixed?
And what's the point of staying up late and watching figure skating when the outcome is largely fixed?..

I think you misunderstood. The Shibs clearly have issues in their SD and many of those have been rightfully pointed out already. Their score isn't unfair and all you have to do is to watch them next week at the NHK Trophy, it would be a shock if their score moves too much although it could improve a little bit. B/S score is, well, you could say a little high for what they did. Then again, they will need to be in Top 3 this year, at least top 4th in order to set up properly for Sochi. This is just my own impression looking at these numbers, I get this feeling the huge margin of a wooping 8 points is a sign that B/S are being pushed for the top. This doesn't mean there is any irregularity in the event but one way to make sense of these numbers, as is often the case when looking at Ice Dance, is to consider what's not actually on the ice. Then again, a stumble here, an error there could really change the outcome. Fact is, despite their best intentions, B/S only managed 6th at 2011 Worlds in Russia because they didn't skate up to their potential. Same thing goes for the 2nd rank Russian team, I/K, who dropped after the FD because it was obvious they didn't skate well.

[alithia]

But doesn't this happen every time a team is on the rise?For different reasons?It hapenned with V/M as well,whether people admit it or not,Vancouver helped a lot to "speed up" their results a little bit.The same applies when people are so happy that P/B are going to medal because Worlds is in France,without realising that they unintentionally accept the notion of "home advantage".

The Shibs had almost the same score at Finlandia as well,so the issues were evident back then.It wasn't as big a surprise.B/S scored where they have stopped last year.If they didn't have issues again I could see them somewhere around 67-68 which they will probably get next time if they skate clean.But it was a signal,and they're not the only team that has been pushed.Most top teams get pushed at a point in their careers.D/W as good as they are,clearly got pushed for the top after their showing at 2009 Worlds.And they replaced B/A probably because their judges thought they were more of certain lock for a medal. V/M took the exact same medal D/L got a year ago,in 2008,they actually completely replaced their retired team mates.Didn't they deserve it?

The only reason I didn't vote at the poll was from fear to be laughed at for voting for B/S.Although the Shibs can win tomorrow and then everyone will be happy.
What always amuses me at competitions is the way coaches promote their ice dancers.It's one of the things that I love about the sport.

[missysays]

I think the Shibs are in a position very similar to D/W in their second year at the senior level. D/W came in and placed an amazing (at the time) 7th at the 2007 worlds in their senior debut but the very next year in their first competition (Skate America) they were passed by teams they had beaten in the previous year's worlds and didn't even medal at that GP. They fought back all year long and finally managed to hold their standing against Pechalat and Bourzat and the Kerrs but were surpassed by Khok/Novitski at Worlds in 2008. They really stepped up the ante the following year in 2009 to become one of the undeniable forerunners but it took that growing year in 2008 to learn what mature skating and competitive skating at that level was all about. I think this is one of those years for the Shibs. They're going to lose their placing against some of the teams they beat last year because they're still growing and vulnerable but if they really hold steady and fight and learn through this cycle. They can surge ahead again when it counts. But they're gonna have to work for it. The SD I saw last night was sharper than Finlandia - stronger and cleaner in their lines and presence than D/W were at their age. But they're going to need to learn to cover the ice and take command of the arena and that's a special kind of presentation that will only come with practice and age. I think they'll get there. They're already way ahead of where D/W were at the same age. They may not win this GP but they're not done yet.

[bladz123]

OK, latin is difficult. It is one of those that you cant fake. You either have it, or you dont. I love this Russian team and everything about them. Thier coaches turn everything to gold. They are in the top three coaching teams in the world along with C and A and team at DSC and S and Z in Canton. This is the top group of coaches with the best stable of skaters but this program is not good, shibs no better. From what we have seen so far in this early
season review only T and S, W and P and the Italians have really grabbed the theme and run with it. The rest, yuck. D and W might be the strongest, fastest team in the world but really Charlie stop pumping arms fake latin movements. This team today, yikes! I think they will be third in the world based on the fact they are Russia number 1 and they are very, very good. The cheaters will have to get them over both Canada 2, Italy 1 (both better at the latin theme) and France 1 (also not so good at latin) with smoke and mirrors but lets not kid ourselves it will happen. I hope they rock the house with a free dance to remember because they are capable. Ice Dance, got to love it!

[KKonas]

I don't think anyone thinks the Shibs are "done." They are too good, but others are hungrier this year. Pechalat & Bourzat skating at home (Nice) for Worlds have good material and are looking determined. B&S certainly are in the mix for bronze as well as Weaver & Poje, and I&K, but all tend to be mistake prone, so we will just have to wait and see how it all winds up. It should be exciting.

[Mrs. P]

I think the Shibs are in a position very similar to D/W in their second year at the senior level. D/W came in and placed an amazing (at the time) 7th at the 2007 worlds in their senior debut but the very next year in their first competition (Skate America) they were passed by teams they had beaten in the previous year's worlds and didn't even medal at that GP. They fought back all year long and finally managed to hold their standing against Pechalat and Bourzat and the Kerrs but were surpassed by Khok/Novitski at Worlds in 2008. They really stepped up the ante the following year in 2009 to become one of the undeniable forerunners but it took that growing year in 2008 to learn what mature skating and competitive skating at that level was all about. I think this is one of those years for the Shibs. They're going to lose their placing against some of the teams they beat last year because they're still growing and vulnerable but if they really hold steady and fight and learn through this cycle. They can surge ahead again when it counts. But they're gonna have to work for it. The SD I saw last night was sharper than Finlandia - stronger and cleaner in their lines and presence than D/W were at their age. But they're going to need to learn to cover the ice and take command of the arena and that's a special kind of presentation that will only come with practice and age. I think they'll get there. They're already way ahead of where D/W were at the same age. They may not win this GP but they're not done yet.

Good thoughts. And I think the one thing the Shibs have going for them is that they have had a long and solid partnership. They have been together since the spring of 2004, when Maia was 10 and Alex was 13. They have gone through growth spurts (particularly Maia), a difficult final junior season (finishing out of medals at JW) and many other transitions. I think everyone forgets that while they're young -- they have been together for 7 years. That's a relatively solid period of time.

Maia and Alex definitely were not happy with that SD, so I'd expect them to train while they're abroad and try to work on getting those levels up for NHK.

[bladz123]

off year for shibs, they tend to do that, they will be 7th or 8th at worlds...the dance gods have so said. 1 and 2 are obvious (I have an opinion) 3 is probably Russia 1 then France 1 followed by Canada 2, Italy 1 and Russia 2 in whatever order then the Shibs...but you are correct errors in these teams seem common place....

[Mrs. P]

off year for shibs, they tend to do that, they will be 7th or 8th at worlds...the dance gods have so said. 1 and 2 are obvious (I have an opinion) 3 is probably Russia 1 then France 1 followed by Canada 2, Italy 1 and Russia 2 in whatever order then the Shibs...but you are correct errors in these teams seem common place....

As I said earlier, my personal thoughts that C/L, P/B and W/P will give the Shibs a run for the podium. B/S, as Wally said, may get some influence up there, but I don't think they deserve to be up there. They have good speed, but the bad posture, the lack of crisp moves and just the packaging drive me crazy with this SD. I/K need to change that SD pronto -- not a good idea to skate to the same music as the Olympic Gold medalists.

So by my logic, the Shibs could finish anywhere between 3rd and 6th. I don't see them getting out of the final group.

[wallylutz]

I don't think anyone thinks the Shibs are "done." They are too good, but others are hungrier this year. Pechalat & Bourzat skating at home (Nice) for Worlds have good material and are looking determined. B&S certainly are in the mix for bronze as well as Weaver & Poje, and I&K, but all tend to be mistake prone, so we will just have to wait and see how it all winds up. It should be exciting.

I agree. The Shibs have tremendous potential. Right now, their age worked against them but ironically, unlike for most other skaters, it's because they are too young. No one knows what the future holds but assuming everything goes as planned and they continue to work hard and improve, depending on what happens to D/W down the road, it can be expected that they will eventually become the #1 team in the U.S. and more. This year and next could prove to be challenging however, a lot of experienced and veteran teams are still around - which is different compared to when V/M and D/W were rising at this juncture at the last Olympic cycle where a lot of veteran teams retired, leaving only a few older teams like Domnina/Shabalin and Delobel/Scheonfelder.

[wallylutz]

I think the Shibs are in a position very similar to D/W in their second year at the senior level. D/W came in and placed an amazing (at the time) 7th at the 2007 worlds in their senior debut but the very next year in their first competition (Skate America) they were passed by teams they had beaten in the previous year's worlds and didn't even medal at that GP. They fought back all year long and finally managed to hold their standing against Pechalat and Bourzat and the Kerrs but were surpassed by Khok/Novitski at Worlds in 2008. They really stepped up the ante the following year in 2009 to become one of the undeniable forerunners but it took that growing year in 2008 to learn what mature skating and competitive skating at that level was all about. I think this is one of those years for the Shibs. They're going to lose their placing against some of the teams they beat last year because they're still growing and vulnerable but if they really hold steady and fight and learn through this cycle. They can surge ahead again when it counts. But they're gonna have to work for it. The SD I saw last night was sharper than Finlandia - stronger and cleaner in their lines and presence than D/W were at their age. But they're going to need to learn to cover the ice and take command of the arena and that's a special kind of presentation that will only come with practice and age. I think they'll get there. They're already way ahead of where D/W were at the same age. They may not win this GP but they're not done yet.

Well said, I agree. It's important to keep expectations in check, hence I said earlier, don't expect them to win overall here - instead, set a more realistic goal like win the FD convincingly. That itself would bring tremendous amount of vindication so that they signal to the world that they can still be up there if they just improve their SD. But be also prepared that they could lost their placement in the world this year, there are just too many very hungry and more veteran teams who want their World medalist placement and all of them, very well connected politically. Anyone wondered the retirement of Faiella/Scali seemed to give C/L an instant boost? Again, who is now the top Italian team? When V/M were out on injuries, the 2nd rank Canadian team by default became the leading team from Canada, and received boost that led to great success on the GP circuit, including winning Skate Canada Int'l and win a medal at GPF. After V/M came back, they immediately deflated. Ice Dance will always be...Ice Dance, with two sides to the same coin, so long as it is justifiable.