Who Will Be At The GPF?
After three GP events, the possible entries can be narrowed down to:
1. Chan 15 +TEB
2. Abbott 15 +COR
3. Brezina 15 +TEB+COR
4. Fernandez 13 +COR
5. Oda 13 +TEB
6. Takahashi 11 +NHK
7. Song 11 +TEB
8. Kozuka 11 +NHK
Only one of Kozuka and Takahashi will probably make it as they battle each other at NHK. Song's chance are slim at TEB. So likely only one of the last 3 will be at the GPF. If I have to bet, my money is on Kozuka. #4, #5, and either #6 or #8 may need tie breakers for 2 spots.
1. Kostner 28 +TEB
2. Czisny 15 +TEB
3. Tuktamisheva 15 +TEB
4. Suzuki 13 +NHK
5. Wagner 11 +NHK
6. Sotnikova 11 +COR
7. Helgesson 11 +TEB
8. Leonova 9 +NHK+COR
9. Asada NHK +COR
The top 3 and #7 will face each other at TEB so Helgesson can be counted out. Kostner will be doing her 3rd event so she may just be the spoiler for either Czinsy or Tuk depending on Suzuki's performance. I'm including Leonove from among those with 9 points because she has two more chances, facing Asada and Sotnikova at COR, her 3rd event. Before that she will compete with Suzuki, Assada, Wagner at NHK, likely spoiling Wagner's chances.
1. Zhang/zhang 26
2. Moore-Towers/Moscovitch 22
3. Volosozhar/Trankov 15 +TEB
4. Kavaguti/Smirnov 15 +NHK+COR
5. Savshenko/Szolkowy 15 +NHK+COR
6. Duhamel/Radford 11 +TEB
7. Sui/Han 20
There are 3 Pairs with 9 points each but they have virtually no chance since they will all be facing S/S and K/S as well as each other at NHK. I'd say the top 6 pairs from the list are the Finalists
1. Virtue/Moir 15 +TEB
2. Davis/White 15 +COR
3. Bobrova/Soloviev 15 +COR
4. Pechalat/Bourzat 13 +TEB
5. Weaver/Poje 13 +NHK+COR
6. Shibutani/Shibutani 13 +NHK
6a. Ilynikh/Katsalopov NHK+TEB
7. Capellini/Lanotte 11 +TEB
8. Tobias/Stagnunas 11 +COR
9. Carron/Jones 11 +COR
The top 4 are almost certain to get to the Final. #7 has to face #1 and #4 at TEB so likely to add 11 points and #8 and #9 have probably no chance at all competing with #2, #3 and #5 at COR. The Dance Final entries are virtually determined at this point, i.e. the top 6 from the list. eta. Thanks to Wallylutz pointing it out, I/P has been added who are yet to start competing but could possibly knock the Shibs from the Final.
Thanks npavel. Event added.
Last edited by SkateFiguring; 11-06-2011 at 03:53 PM.
5. Savshenko/Szolkowy 15 +NHK + COR
4. Kavaguti/Smirnov 15 +NHK + COR
In Ice Dance, you need to add:
Elena ILINYKH / Nikita KATSALAPOV RUS
They haven't started yet but will be at the NHK. There is a chance they could beat the Shibs which they did when they won Junior worlds 2 seasons ago over the Americans. If they beat the Shibs in the NHK and the Americans ended up 3rd behind W/P and I/K, the Shibs will likely miss the GPF.
Oh dear, I missed I/K. There are also advantages for late starters too.
It's "Asada", not "Assada"
Keep it coming, guys! Let's see how many more mistake SF made.
Pats self for the courage of writing out Russian names instead of using abbreviations.
Skating is art, if you let it be.
Hanyu can make it to the GPF if he wins at Cup of Russia. Brandon Mroz has not competed yet and could potentially make it to the GPF. So there are 10 people in play still for the Men, not 8. It's improbable that Song will finish higher than 3rd at TEB, so he's probably out, and Brandon Mroz probably won't make it either. I predict a 2nd place finish for Hanyu at Cup of Russia, which means he wouldn't make it. I predict a 5th place finish for Abbott at Cup of Russia, which means he also does not make it.
1. Chan (1st CAN, 1st FRA)
2. Fernandez (1st RUS, 2nd CAN)
3. Takahashi (1st JPN, 3rd CAN)
4. Brezina (1st USA, 3rd TEB)
5. Oda (2nd CHN, 2nd TEB)
6. Kozuka (2nd JPN, 3rd USA)
1. Asada (1st JPN, 1st RUS)
2. Tuktamisheva (1st CAN, 1st FRA)
3. Kostner (1st CHN, 2nd USA/2nd FRA)
4. Czisny (1st USA, 3rd FRA)
5. Suzuki (2nd CAN, 2nd JPN)
6. Sotnikova (2nd RUS, 3rd CHN)
01. Volosozhar/Trankov (1st CAN, 1st FRA)
02. Savchenko/Szolkowy (1st NHK, 1st USA/RUS)
03. Kavaguti/Smirnov (1st CHN, 2nd NHK/RUS)
04. Zhang/Zhang (2nd USA, 2nd CHN)
05. Duhamel/Radford (3rd CAN, 3rd FRA)
06. Moore-Towers/Moscovitch (3rd USA, 3rd CHN)
01. Davis/White (1st USA, 1st RUS)
02. Virtue/Moir (1st CAN, 1st FRA)
03. Bobrova/Soloviev (1st CHN, 2nd RUS)
04. Weaver/Poje (1st JPN, 2nd CAN)
05. Pechalat/Bourzat (2nd USA, 2nd FRA)
06. Shibutani/Shibutani (2nd CHN, 2nd JPN)
Last edited by Blades of Passion; 11-07-2011 at 05:54 PM.
I would be dissapointed if Abbott came only 5th in Russia given his strong start to the season. I would like to think he can get himself back on track this season. He will have to do with only 2 U.S spots and Lysacek maybe showing up at Nationals.
^^^^Don't worry. BOP had Abbott 4th at COC.
I had him 3rd or 4th there too. I hope he keeps his act together. He is still one of the most talented skaters and should probably actually win in Russia, even with the pretty good field, if he skates his best. The only current skater a strong Abbott cant touch is Chan, and maybe Kozuka if he hits his quads and Abbott doesnt try them.
So with NHK in the books for Dance...my predictions
1. Davis/White = 30 (they should easily win in COR)
2. Virtue/Moir =30 (ditto for TEB)
3. Bobrova/Soloview =28 (1st at COC, 2nd at COR)
4. Shibutani/Shibutani =28 (2nd at COC, 1st at NHK)
5. Pechalat/Bourzat = 26 (2nd at SA, 2nd at TEB expected behind V/M)
6. Weaver/Poje = 26 (2nd at SC, 2nd at NHK; don't expect a change with COR result)
Capellini/Lanotte =22 (3rd at SC, expected 3rd at TEB)
Ilynikh/Katsalopov =22 (3rd at NHK, expectes 3rd at COR behind D/W and W/P)
Carron/Jones = 20 (3rd at COC, expected 4th at COR)
01. Volosozhar/Trankov (1st CAN, 1st FRA)
02. Kavaguti/Smirnov (1st CHN, 1st NHK, ?RUS)
03. Savchenko/Szolkowy (1st USA, 3rd NHK, ?RUS)
04. Zhang/Zhang (2nd USA, 2nd CHN)
05. Takahashi/Tran (4th, 2nd NHK)
06. Duhamel/Radford (3rd CAN, 3rd FRA)
07. Moore-Towers/Moscovitch (3rd USA, 3rd CHN)
Some ladies' tallies:
2. Tuktamisheva: 15 (SC) + 15 (TEB) = 30
3. Kostner 13 (SA) + 15 (CoC) = 28
5. Suzuki 13 (SC) + 15 (NHK) = 28
4. Czisny 15 (USA) + 11 (TEB) = 26
1. Asada 13 (NHK) + __ (CoR)
6. Sotnikova 11 (CoC) + __ (CoR)
7. Imai 9 (SA) + __ (CoR)
Leonova out with a 4th Place, Wagner out with a 4th Place, Nagasu out with a 5th place
I included Imai (who I fudged 9 pts for 4th place) with the possibility that Asada or Sotnikova bomb to atleast 4th, and Imai wins/gets second. So far, the top 4 are locked in. All of the other medalists so far have placed low enough that they are out (the other 4th place skaters have skated all of their competitions).
So, yay to an American in GPF 2 years in a row! We had a rough couple years before that.
Assuming Sotnikova and Asada qualify, Nagasu will be in the alternate position even if Imai is 3rd in Russia. If that happened, Nagasu, Imai, Wagner and Leonova will all have 20 points, but Mirai has the highest individual placement (2nd) of the 4, so that breaks the tie.
Actually, Leonova is skating at COR, so if she can somehow place 1st or 2nd, and her COR points count, then she's in the GPF if Mao beats Adelina.
You can find standings here, assuming they will be updated on Monday.
Pairs is done. No change possible to the top six except order.
Dance is all but finished. As long as Davis/White and Bobrova/Soloviev make the top four, they're in the GPF.
Men.... CoR provides the answers
1. Chan, Takahashi and Brezina are in, regardless.
2. Hanyu needs to win. If he does, he's in. If he doesn't, he's out.
3. IF Hanyu wins
- Abbott needs top four
- Fernandez needs second or third with a score of 200.53 or better.
- Hanyu, Abbott and Fernandez makes the the GPF with the aforementioned three. If one of them fails to meet that criteria, Song is in. If both, Song and Kozuka are in
4. If Gachinski wins, he makes the GPF ONLY if
- Jeremy Abbott is sixth (or lower) OR fifth with a score 27.80 points (or more) lower AND
- Javier Fernandez is fourth (or lower)
- In this scenario, Gachinski joins Brezina, Takahashi, Chan, Song and Kozuka
5. Abbott is in as long as he's fourth or better, regardless of what another skater does
6. If Fernandez is in the top three, he's in as long as Hanyu doesn't win (otherwise the 3rd point applies)