2011 Challenge Predictions
Since all sectional events are complete, it is time for the Challenge predictions.
As everyone will probably agree, at nationals, Patrick and Tessa/Scott are basically a guarantee to win it all. Pairs will be interesting with MT/M amd D/R fighting it out. Ladies is wide open with Cynthia having a disappointing GP season.
So I have compiled a list as to who has qualified for Challenge in the Senior groups and have also listed who has byes to Nationals.
Patrick Chan (Bye - Nationals/SGP)
Kevin Reynolds (Bye - SGP)
Elladj Balde (Bye-SGP)
Jeremy Ten - BC
Nam Nguyen - BC
Liam Firus - BC
Dylan Archambault - BC
Jesse Smith - AB
Raymond Shultz - AB
Garrett Gosselin - SK
Jacob Cryderman - NO
Raphael Yacobi-Harris - CO
Shaquille Davis - CO
Benjamin Guthrie - EO
Maxim-Billy Fortin - QC
Dave Ferland - QC
Charles Dion - QC
Sasha Alcoloumbre - QC
Dominic Rondeau - QC
David Struthers - QC
Maxime Deschamps - QC
Benjamin Tidy - QC
Andre Rogozine - CO (Bye - SGP)
Samuel Morais - QC
Ronald Lam - BC
Cynthia Phaneuf (Bye - Nationals / SGP)
Myriane Samson (Bye - Nationals)
Amelie Lacoste (Bye - Nationals / SGP)
Adriana DeSantis (Bye - SGP)
Cambria Little - BC
Rika Inoda - BC
Morgan Jmaiff - BC
Kitty Qian - BC
Kaetlyn Osmond - AB
Devon Neuls - AB
Jessica Sergeant - AB
Megan Ure - AB
Stacey Rude - SK
Brooke Ellis - SK
Kaleigh Hole - MB
Kate Charbonneau - MB
Marianne Laporte - NO
Veronique Cloutier - NO
Zoey Brown - WO
Daniela-Bella Favot - WO
Kelsey Sobkowich - WO
Anastasia Gasbarinni - WO
Christina Yan - CO
Michelle Long - CO
Eri Nishimura - CO
Rebecca Addison - CO
Alaine Chartrand - EO
Dana Zhalko-Tytarenko - EO
Alexandrine Chong - EO
Julianna Sagaria - QC
Roxanne Rheault - QC
Vanessa Grenier - QC
Sarah Jourdain - QC
Alexandra Gagnon - QC
Rachel Gendron - QC
Alexie Gelinas - QC
Izabel Valiquette - QC
Gabrielle Anne Cormier - NB
Kelsey MacNeil - NB
Jessica Dube - QC (Not sure if permitted to receive QC Sectional Bye)
Kirsten Moore-Towers / Dylan Moscovich (Bye - Nationals / SGP)
Megan Duhamel / Eric Radford (Bye - Nationals / SGP)
Paige Lawrence / Rudy Swiegers (Bye - Nationals / SGP)
Natasha Purich / Raymond Shultz - AB (Bye - SGP)
Brittany Jones / Kurtis Gaskell - WO (Bye - SGP)
Andrea Tou / Andrew Penasse - CO
Julianne Seguin / Andrew Evans - QC
Noemie Arseneault / Simon-Pierre Cote - QC
Alexie Gelinas - David Struthers - QC
Taylor Steele / Robert Shultz - CO (Bye - SGP)
Jessica Dube / Sebastian Wolfe - QC (Bye - SGP)
Margaret Purdy / Michael Marinaro - CO
Tessa Virtue /Scott Moir (Bye - SGP)
Kaitlyn Weaver / Andrew Poje (Bye - Natioanls / SGP)
Alexandra Paul / Mitchell Islam (Bye - SGP)
Kharis Ralph / Asher Hill (Bye - SGP)
Tarrah Harvey / Keith Gagnon (Bye - SGP)
Nicole Orford / Thomas Williams - BC
Larissa Van As / Troy Shindle - BC
Olga Lioudvinevitch / Benjamin Mulder - WO
Piper Gilles / Paul Poirier - CO
Hélène Létourneau / Kevin Boczar - EO
Anoushka Ritchie-Hervieux / Philippe Masse - QC
Shanna Rene de Cotret-Laporte / Alexandre Laliber - QC
Melissande Dumas / David McKay Perry - QC
Audrey Dupont / Marcus Connolly - QC
Anne-Chloe Bissonette / Dylan Lockey - QC
Alexa Marie Arrotta / Martin Nickel - MB
Jazz Smyl Joly / Nicholas Jesionek - AB
Based on Sectional results. May have missed some due to having byes through various Sectional competition.
Added based on input from below
Last edited by hohoho; 11-16-2011 at 08:23 AM.
Tessa / Scott have a bye. They were 2nd in the World last year. They have 2 GP assignments, and will more than likely be at the GPF.
I also have:
Alexa Marie Arrotta / Martin Nickel - MB
Jazz Smyl Joly / Nicholas Jesionek - AB
Assuming Sarah Arnold / Justin Trojek (WO) are actually done skating together, that would mean 17 teams at Challenge. There are 15 spots to Nationals, for which 5 teams have a bye. That leaves 10 spots to Nationals, and 2 teams will be left behind at Challenge.
Thanks for the list . Just noting some corrections.
1. Rogozine has a bye to nationals ( senior GP assignment ). Not even on your list.
2. You forgot Samuel Morais. He could and did skip the Quebec sectionals due to his Nebelhorn assignment. But he must compete at the challenge.
3. I am sure you can add Ronald Lam ( BC ) to the list. There are 6 senior BC men ( including the late withdrawal Sandhu ) . Since Nam and Firus had sectional byes due to JGP assignments, there were only 4 non-byed entries ( including Lam who did not compete at sectionals). When there are 4 or less non-byed entries in a sectional competition ( 8 in Quebec ) the competitors can choose to skip the sectional.
Najarro must compete at the challenge. She did not medal at the last nationals, have a senior GP assignment or make the JGPF. Najarro could use her JGP assignment to skip sectionals ( even though she did choose to compete there). But JGP assignments alone do not allow you to skip the challenge.
1. Correct me if I'm wrong but I am pretty sure Hole/Johnson have split.
2. Natasha Purich / Raymond Shultz - AB and Brittany Jones / Kurtis Gaskell - WO both have byes to nationals as they both have senior GP assignments. Both likely to compete at challenge however.
3. Taylor STEELE / Robert SCHULTZ and Dube/Wolfe aren't listed and both had a senior GP assignment this year. So both teams too have a bye straight to nationals. There will be a draw as to skate order between these 2 teams and Purich/Schultz as to skate order of the SP at nationals since none of these teams competed senior last year but all have byes to nationals.
Thanks Nadster and NorthernDancers
Sorry about the missing people.
Perhaps I am misinformed, but doesn't a Grand Prix Event only get you a bye past sectionals? Wouldn't you have to make the Grand Prix Final to get a bye past Challenge? Doesn't Najarro get a bye for being top 5 at Nationals last year?
It is top 3 at nationals that get a bye. Najarro did not finish in the top 3 last year, no senior GP assignment and no JGPF. Her JGP assignment allowed her to skip sectionals but she still has to do the challenge.
Originally Posted by hohoho
A senior grand prix event gets you a bye straight to nationals. There is no requirement for those who got a senior GP to make the GPF to get the nationals bye. Making the JGPF also gets you a bye to nationals.
A senior-B and/or JGP event gets you past sectionals but not the challenge.
I saw the results for dance for Central Ontario. Ralph/Hill were in the sectionals and got for their free dance 72.07 and Gilles/Poirier (they also were at CO sectionals) got 90.35. I am so excited to see such results for G/P and am looking forward to seeing their dance later this year.
btw. I can't believe it, R/H got worse result in sectionals than in Skate America.
Last edited by katia; 11-15-2011 at 12:29 AM.
Margaret Purdy/Michael Marinaro have a bye to Challenge due to their JGP assignment.
ETA: I believe Jessica Dube also plans to skate singles at Challenge.
Last edited by vintagefigureskater; 11-15-2011 at 01:37 AM.
I'm fairly positive Lam is now skating for another country, though I can't remember which one - I believe some sort of east Asian country (a smaller one, obviously). He competed at BC Summer Skate representing Coquitlam, but I'm fairly positive he's competing elsewhere now for a different country.
Originally Posted by nadster
As an American, I've never heard of the Skate Canada Challenge. What role does it play as far as qualifying for Nationals? And how is this different from sectionals and regionals?
Hi Mrs P.
Canada is divided into 13 sections. In each section top 4 skaters (8 in Quebec) advance to Skate Canada Challenge. All qualifiers from each section then compete to qualify for Nationals. Medal winners from previous year get a bye to nationals and Senior Grand Prix competitors also get a bye to Nationals.
The number of skaters qualifying for nationals at Challenge is calculated as:
18 National competitors = Previous year national medal winners + Senior Grand Prix Competitiors + Skate Canada Challenge Qualifier.
For example in Canada this year we have 2 medal winners from previous year (Phaneuf and Lacoste) and 1 extra Senior Grand Prix Competitor (DeSanctis) (not included in previous year medal winners). That will leave 18-2-1=15. So Top 15 from Skate Canada Challenge would qualify for Nationals