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Thread: 2011 Challenge Predictions

  1. #16
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    Purdy / MARINARO do not have a bye to nationals. They only received JGP assignments and failed to make the JGPF. Therefore they must compete at the challenge.

    Samson does not have to show up to the challenge since she finished 2nd at nationals last year. She has a bye to nationals.

  2. #17
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    Thanks for the explanation, hohoho and Northern Dancers. That's quite an interesting concept -- it's almost like a mini nationals, of course sans the top teams.

    And I could see the effectiveness of such a concept in the U.S., because for sure some sectionals are harder than others. By putting all the non-bye contestants together, i can see a greater likelihood that the best skaters would get to compete.

  3. #18
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    Seeing the entry list seems to be complete, I will start some predictions (I have not included those that have bye's to Nationals)

    Senior Men:
    1) Jeremy Ten
    2) Liam Firus
    3) Maxim-Billy Fortin
    4) Nam Nguyen
    5) Samual Morais

    Senior Women:

    1) Alexandra Najarro
    2) Kaetlyn Osmond
    3) Vanessa Grenier
    4) Devon Neuls
    5) Kate Charbonneau

    Senior Pairs:

    1) Seguin / Evans
    2) Purdy / Marinaro
    3) Tou / Penasse
    4) Arsenault / Cote
    5) Gelinas / Struthers

    Senior Dance:

    1) Gilles / Poirier
    2) Orford / Williams
    3) Ritchie-Hervieux / Masse
    4) Lioudvinevitch / Mulder
    5) Arotta / Nickel

  4. #19
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    Top five predictions for divisionals. (senior events)

    Senior Men:
    1)Jeremy Ten
    2)Nam Nguyen
    3)Liam Firus
    4)Samual Morais
    5)Shaquille Davis

    Senior Women:
    1)Kaetlyn Osmond
    2)Alexandra Najarro
    3)Julianna Sagaria
    4)Kate Charbonneau
    5)Vanessa Grenier

    Senior Pairs:
    1) Seguin / Evans
    2) Purdy / Marinaro
    3) Tou / Penasse
    4) Arsenault / Cote
    5) Gelinas / Struthers

    Senior Dance:
    1) Gilles / Poirier
    2) Orford / Williams
    3) Ritchie-Hervieux / Masse
    4) Lioudvinevitch / Mulder
    5) Arotta / Nickel

  5. #20
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    I tend to agree with travis porter's predictions except for the ladies.

    I think that Charbonneau, Osmond and Najarro will be getting the medals at the challenge. These 3 are clearly a level above the others. They also will be the ones vying for the JW spot. Right now Osmond is in the best form.

    BTW, Sagaria did win the Quebec sectional. However she did that by winning the free skate with no clean triples landed. Her only 2 triple attempts were both got the slight UR call. Usually she is quite consistent on the loop but none of her other triples are that reliable. The Quebec sectional by the description of the winning FS was a poorly skated event overall.

    Look forward to watching the novice and junior ladies. A couple novice ladies in BC landed triple lutzes and the technical abilities of the junior ladies has also improved. Hopefully whoever we send to JW does well so that many of these ladies can be showcased on the JGP next year. It is unlikely we'll get 14 slots , but IMO 7 slots ( countries 4 - 6) is entirely doable and much better than having only 4 slots this year.

  6. #21
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    My predictions for top five are based solely on season's best scores - simplistic, and probably not the most accurate, but we'll see how it works out.

    Senior men:
    1. Eladj Baldé - 187.78, from Quebec Summer competition
    2. Liam Firus - 180.00, from JGP Brisbane
    3. Jeremy Ten - 177.06, from BC sectionals
    4. Nam Nguyen - 169.55, from BC sectonals (but close to JGP Romania)
    5. Samuel Morais - 162.72, from Quebec Summer competition.

    Senior women:
    1. Kaetlyn Osmond - 146.69, from Alberta sectionals
    2. Vanessa Grenier - 142.92, from Souvenir Georges-Ethier
    3. Alexandra Najarro - 136.79, from COS sectionals
    4. Kate Charbonneau - 128.99, from Skate Detroit (but close to JGP Poland)
    5. Alaine Chartrand - 127.19, from EOS sectionals.

    Senior pairs:
    1. Julianna Séguin/Andrew Evans - 137.74, at Souvenir Georges-Ethier
    2. Margaret Purdy/Michael Marinaro - 137.09, at Indy
    3. Noemie Arseneault/Simon-Pierre Cote - 136.50, at Quebec sectionals
    4. Alexie Gelinas/David Struthers - 108.41, at Quebec sectionals.
    5. Andrea Tou/Matthew Penasse - new team, no score.

    Senior dance:
    1. Piper Gilles/Paul Poirier - 150.84, from COS sectionals
    2. Nicole Orford/Thomas Williams - 137.58, from BC sectionals
    3. Larissa Van As/Troy Shindle - 122.74, from BC sectionals
    4. Helene Letourneau/Kevin Boczar - 115.52, from Autumn Skate
    5. Olga Lioudvinevitch/Benjamin Mulder - 109.37, from Isabelle Henderson.

  7. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by geoskate View Post
    My predictions for top five are based solely on season's best scores - simplistic, and probably not the most accurate, but we'll see how it works out.

    Senior dance:
    1. Piper Gilles/Paul Poirier - 150.84, from COS sectionals
    2. Nicole Orford/Thomas Williams - 137.58, from BC sectionals
    3. Larissa Van As/Troy Shindle - 122.74, from BC sectionals
    4. Helene Letourneau/Kevin Boczar - 115.52, from Autumn Skate
    5. Olga Lioudvinevitch/Benjamin Mulder - 109.37, from Isabelle Henderson.
    I'll go with that last assertion, given what I can only presume to be fairy-tale scores from BC. I have to think they boost those scores exactly for this sort of reaction. Didn't really work out for Harvey/Gagnon. Their scores at Nebelhorn and Skate Canada were not even in the same ballpark as what they were given at BC Summerskate.

    So a dose of reality. I would really like to see the list of who is actually competing in Challenge to make any substantive prediction.

    That being said, I think there will be no catching Gilles/Poirier. I'll have to have a good look at their SD before really understanding how they are developing. It's hard to tell in their FD because they do a really good job of avoiding anything too "dancey" by stacking the program with speed and cool tricks. I'm not a fan of this, but understand the reasoning behind the choice, and he is last season's Canadian champion.

    Beyond that, I think there are a whole bunch of teams that could step up and win a medal if they skate clean. Orford/Williams are brand new to Senior, and perhaps the shine is off a little for not making the JGPF. They haven't had a chance to really compete the Senior programs yet outside of BC. We'll just have to see. The rest could finish in any order from 2 on down, depending on clean skates. If everyone skates clean, I would think Lioudvinevitch/Mulder will finish ahead of Letourneau/Boczar based on the quality of skating. Not sure about Van As/Shindle. Would love to see Skate Canada post the list.

  8. #23
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    Here's a possible list of competitors in the junior men, based on section results. Corrections and/or additionals are very welcome.

    Mitchell Gordon BC: BC Sectionals (1st); Bye due to JGP assignment.
    Graeme Gordon BC: BC Sectionals (2nd)
    Kurtis Hori BC: BC Sectionals (3rd)


    Cole Vandervelden AB: Alberta Sectionals (1st)
    Drew Wolfe AB: Alberta sectionals (2nd)
    Daniel Kratochvil AB: Alberta Sectionals (3rd)


    Garrett Gosselin Sask: Did not skate at sectionals AFAIK, but would qualify anyway because he would be the only competitor. He could also be skating senio ETA: not entered at Challenge in either Senior or junior. injured?r.


    Jason Purdue NOS: NOS Sectonals (1st)
    Joel Bond NOS: Not entered for NOS sectionals, but would qualify anyway as the 2nd NOS entry.


    Alistair Sylvester WOS: Skated at COS sectionals as a guest; would qualify from WOS as the only entry.


    Iassen Petkov COS: COS Sectionals (1st)
    Alexander Zahariev COS: COS Sectionals (3rd)
    Dustin Sherriff-Clayton COS: COS Sectionals (4th)
    Satish Stefansson COS: COS Sectionals (5th, but 4th of COS competitors at sectionals)
    ETA: Denis Margalik added. He was on the JGP list but I don't think he competed - earlier injury? It looks like he may be OK now.



    Peter O'Brien EOS: Bye to Challenge due to JGP assignment, did not compete at sectionals.


    Christophe Belley-Lemelin QC: Bye to Challenge due to JGP assignment.
    Samuel Angers QC: Bye to Challenge due to JGP assignment ETA: but not entered at Challenge - does he have an injury now?.
    Jack Kermezian QC: Quebec sectionals (1st)
    Francis Boudreau-Audet QC: Quebec sectionals (2nd)
    Nicolas Tondreau-Alin QC: Quebec sectionals (3rd)
    Alexandre Vaugeois QC: Quebec sectionals (4th)
    Nicolas Beaudoin QC: Quebec sectionals (5th)
    Sebastien Arcieri QC: Quebec sectionals (6th)
    Gabriel Nadeau QC: Quebec sectionals (7th)
    Francis Beaulieu QC: Quebec sectionals (8th)


    Jairus Godfrey PEI: NB/PEI Sectionals (1st)
    Last edited by geoskate; 11-26-2011 at 01:59 AM.

  9. #24
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    Here's a possible list of competitors in junior women. Again, corrections and/or additions are welcome.

    Tianna Brammer BC: BC Sectionals (1st)

    Kelsey Wiebe BC: BC Sectionals (2nd)
    Desiree Schaefer BC: BC Sectionals (3rd)
    Makayla Randall BC: BC Sectionals (4th)


    Jane Gray AB: Alberta Sectionals (1st)
    Lauren Sieffert AB: Alberta sectionals (2nd)
    Alexandra Rynn AB: Alberta Sectionals (3rd)
    Jillian Tomimoto AB: Alberta sectionals (4th)
    ETA: Natasha Purich added - bye due to Grand Prix pairs assignment?



    Shelby Stupak SK: Sask. sectionals (1st)


    Deidre Russell MB: Manitoba sectonals (1st)
    Stacey Woods MB: Manitoba sectionals(2nd)
    Lindsay Penner MB: Manitoba sectionals (3rd)


    Marika Steward NOS: NOS sectionals (1st)
    Jessica Niemi NOS: NOS Sectionals (2nd)
    Taylor Latimer NOS: NOS Sectionals (3rd)


    Margaret Purdy WOS: WOS sectionals (1st)
    Brianna Clarkson WOS: WOS sectionals (2nd)
    Cassandra McDonnell WOS: WOS sectionals (3rd)
    Lucia Krivankova-Smal WOS: WOS sectionals (4th)
    ETA: Brittany Jones added - bye due to Grand Prix pairs assignment?



    Gabrielle Daleman COS: COS Sectionals (1st)
    Rachel Greben COS: COS Sectionals (2nd)
    Samantha Tsui COS: COS Sectionals (3rd)
    Olivia Houston COS: COS Sectionals (4th)


    Elizabeth Comeau EOS: EOS Sectionals (1st)
    Anna McCorriston EOS: EOS Sectionals (2nd)
    Jennifer Pettern EOS: EOS Sectionals (3rd)
    Carly Morishita EOS: EOS Sectionals (4th)


    Roxanne Cournoyer QC: Quebec sectionals (1st)
    Veronik Mallet QC: Quebec sectionals (2nd)
    Julianne Seguin QC: Quebec sectionals (3rd)
    Ann-Sophie Gagnon QC: Quebec sectionals (4th)
    Camille Ruest QC: Quebec sectionals (5th)
    Melodie Dore QC: Quebec sectionals (6th)
    Marie-Eve Comtois QC: Quebec sectionals (7th)
    Valerie Bergeron QC: Quebec sectionals (8th)


    Kassie Costello NB: NB Sectionals (1st)
    Emily-Rose Taylor NB: NB Sectionals (2nd)
    Sarah Thiffault NB: NB Sectionals (3rd)


    Stephanie Fagan NS: NS Sectionals (1st)

    ETA: Also add Julia Mercer from Newfoundland.
    Last edited by geoskate; 11-26-2011 at 02:04 AM.

  10. #25
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    Pairs, and a pretty small group. Perhaps some are missing:

    Katherine Bobak/Ian Beharry WOS sectionals (1st) , ED: bye to Canadians due to JGP Final qualification. (Thanks, NorthernDancers).

    Mary Orr/Anthony Furiano WOS sectionals (2nd) ETA: not skating at Challenge, will qualify for Canadians anyway.

    Shelena Rau/Phelan Simpson WOS sectionals (3rd) ETA: not skating at Challenge, will qualify for Canadians anyway

    Leah Hyslop/Bob Goodwin WOS sectionals (4th) ETA: not skating at Challenge, will qualify for Canadians anyway

    Krystel Dejardins/Charlie Bilodeau Quebec sectionals (1st)

    Tamara Jurkiewicz/Alex Arpin Quebec sectionals (2nd)

    ETA: Add Alexandra Young/Matthew Young from Newfoundland.
    Last edited by geoskate; 11-26-2011 at 02:07 AM.

  11. #26
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    Possible junior dance competitors:

    Madeline Edwards/Zhao Kai Pang BC: Bye to Challenge - JGP assignment
    Noa Bruser/Timothy Lum BC: Bye to Challenge - JGP assignment
    Caelen Dalmer/Shane Firus BC: Bye to Challenge - JGP assignment

    Courtney Royer/Steven Paslawsky AB: Did not skate at sectionals, but should be eligible for Challenge if they choose to go, since they are the only Alberta team AFAIK.

    Kylie Knight and Allan Stoll WOS: Skated at Minto, but have not skated since. Are they still skating together? If so, they should be eligible for Challenge from the WOS section. ETA: Not entered at Challenge. Injured or split?

    Nicole Kuzmich/Jordan Hockley COS: COS Sectionals (1st)
    Rachel Kirkland/Christopher Lettner COS: COS Sectionals (2nd)

    Mackenzie Bent/Garrett MacKeen EOS: Bye to Challenge - JGP assignment (but skated at sectionals)
    Sarah Clarke/Steven Clarke EOS: EOS Sectionals (2nd)
    Rebecca Nelles/Nicolas Lettner EOS: EOS Sectionals (3rd)

    Elisabeth Paradis/Francois-Xavier Ouellette QC: Quebec sectionals (1st)
    Victoria Hasegawa/Connor Hasegawa QC: Quebec sectionals (2nd); bye - JGP assignment.
    Laurence Fournier-Beaudry/Yoan Breton QC: Quebec sectionals (3rd); bye - JGP assignment.
    Marieve Cyr/Benjamin Brisebois QC: Quebec sectionals (4th)
    Andreanne Poulin/Marc-Andre Servant QC: Quebec sectionals (5th); bye - JGP assignment.
    Carolane Soucisse/Benjamin Smyth QC: Quebec sectionals (6th)
    Catherine Culhane/Simon Mondor QC: Quebec sectionals (7th)
    Josyane Cholette/Simon Proulx-Senecal QC: Did not skate at sectionals. Should still qualify for top 8 because of JGP byes for other competitors ETA: and they are entered at Challenge.
    Abby Carswell/Simon Tanguay QC: Did not skate at sectionals. Should still qualify for top 8 because of JGP byes for other competitors
    ETA: and they are entered at Challenge..
    Last edited by geoskate; 11-26-2011 at 02:10 AM.

  12. #27
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    That is a very small list for pairs. Also what happened to the dance team from northern Ontario that skated at thornhill. I think one of them was from Owen sound.

  13. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by geoskate View Post
    Pairs, and a pretty small group. Perhaps some are missing:

    Katherine Bobak/Ian Beharry WOS sectionals (1st) , bye to Challenge (JGP)

    Mary Orr/Anthony Furiano WOS sectionals (2nd)

    Shelena Rau/Phelan Simpson WOS sectionals (3rd)

    Leah Hyslop/Bob Goodwin WOS sectionals (4th)

    Krystel Dejardins/Charlie Bilodeau Quebec sectionals (1st)

    Tamara Jurkiewicz/Alex Arpin Quebec sectionals (2nd)
    Yes, very small group. Now I did notice that the new schedule is posted today. I the Junior Pair event is very, very small. I'm guessing a bunch of these teams won't be there. Bobak/Beharry have a bye to Nationals thanks to their spot in the JGPF in Quebec City the next week. It's an expensive trip to Regina for all of these teams, so if they don't have to compete, perhaps they won't.

  14. #29
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    Also what happened to the dance team from northern Ontario that skated at thornhill. I think one of them was from Owen sound.
    Do you mean Alicia Fortin/Matt Kleffman? I wasn't sure whether or not to put them on the list, since they haven't been in any competition since Thornhill, AFAIK, although they registered for Octoberfest. If they represent NOS, they might still be eligible for Challenge even though they didn't skate at sectionals.

  15. #30
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    I think they were supposed to represent Western Ontario, since Owen Sound falls within Western section. They weren't at Sectionals, but presumably they could still show up to Challenge, since there were no Junior teams competing in the Section.

    Question: does anyone know when Skate Canada normally posts the lists for Challenge? Isn't the event next week? The posted schedule changed earlier this week, but no sign of entries and start orders yet. Isn't this getting late, or am I just over-eager?

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