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Thread: 2011 Challenge Predictions

  1. #31
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    I agree with NorthernDancers that Skate Canada is being a bit slow with the entrants list. I will make the assumption that with the schedule revision that they have a list but just have not posted. I will even go a bit further as to say that Skate Canada will not only post entries, but also the start orders.

  2. #32
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    Do you think Alexandra Najarro has a shot at gold? After her breakthrough at Nationals last year, I was so excited about her prospects. She can be a great jumper and is very graceful. Also, I notice in a couple of competitions this year she landed a triple flip and lutz in her short. But her long programs have been disappointing. I wonder if she's going through a rough patch after her success last year. I think maybe Kate Charbonneau has a better shot after doing well at a Junior Grand Prix.


    Quote Originally Posted by geoskate View Post
    My predictions for top five are based solely on season's best scores - simplistic, and probably not the most accurate, but we'll see how it works out.

    Senior men:
    1. Eladj Baldé - 187.78, from Quebec Summer competition
    2. Liam Firus - 180.00, from JGP Brisbane
    3. Jeremy Ten - 177.06, from BC sectionals
    4. Nam Nguyen - 169.55, from BC sectonals (but close to JGP Romania)
    5. Samuel Morais - 162.72, from Quebec Summer competition.

    Senior women:
    1. Kaetlyn Osmond - 146.69, from Alberta sectionals
    2. Vanessa Grenier - 142.92, from Souvenir Georges-Ethier
    3. Alexandra Najarro - 136.79, from COS sectionals
    4. Kate Charbonneau - 128.99, from Skate Detroit (but close to JGP Poland)
    5. Alaine Chartrand - 127.19, from EOS sectionals.

    Senior pairs:
    1. Julianna Séguin/Andrew Evans - 137.74, at Souvenir Georges-Ethier
    2. Margaret Purdy/Michael Marinaro - 137.09, at Indy
    3. Noemie Arseneault/Simon-Pierre Cote - 136.50, at Quebec sectionals
    4. Alexie Gelinas/David Struthers - 108.41, at Quebec sectionals.
    5. Andrea Tou/Matthew Penasse - new team, no score.

    Senior dance:
    1. Piper Gilles/Paul Poirier - 150.84, from COS sectionals
    2. Nicole Orford/Thomas Williams - 137.58, from BC sectionals
    3. Larissa Van As/Troy Shindle - 122.74, from BC sectionals
    4. Helene Letourneau/Kevin Boczar - 115.52, from Autumn Skate
    5. Olga Lioudvinevitch/Benjamin Mulder - 109.37, from Isabelle Henderson.

  3. #33
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    I think for the first time in a few years, the ladies category in Canada is wide open. There is no one clear dominant skater. Cynthia has been less than impressive which has meant a change in coaches. Amelie has been consistent with her scoring. And now there are 4 girls who competed on JGP last and this year (Alexandra, Vanessa, Kate, and Kaetlyn). Kate did well on the JGP, Alexandra not so well. Vanessa has been up and down. Kaetlyn has been continuing to improve her score and has the highest score for any Senior Lady this competitive season. So basically, unless something goes wrong or someone else does well, that is your final 6 at nationals and any one of them could take a medal. Could be some tough decisions to make after nationals with the naming of the World teams.

    Just considering Alexandra, she does have the ability to rise to certain occasions. She won the hearts of the fans at last Canadians, but fell short at Junior Worlds. She really hasn't been as good as last Canadians since then. She could still rise to the occasion.

  4. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by hohoho View Post
    I think for the first time in a few years, the ladies category in Canada is wide open. There is no one clear dominant skater. Cynthia has been less than impressive which has meant a change in coaches. Amelie has been consistent with her scoring. And now there are 4 girls who competed on JGP last and this year (Alexandra, Vanessa, Kate, and Kaetlyn). Kate did well on the JGP, Alexandra not so well. Vanessa has been up and down. Kaetlyn has been continuing to improve her score and has the highest score for any Senior Lady this competitive season. So basically, unless something goes wrong or someone else does well, that is your final 6 at nationals and any one of them could take a medal. Could be some tough decisions to make after nationals with the naming of the World teams.

    Just considering Alexandra, she does have the ability to rise to certain occasions. She won the hearts of the fans at last Canadians, but fell short at Junior Worlds. She really hasn't been as good as last Canadians since then. She could still rise to the occasion.
    Thanks for your interesting comments. I still think Cynthia must be the favourite. Adriana de Sanctis could be a spoiler as well. I think Najarro is going through an awkward season as she makes her content much more difficult. This year she has two triple flips and a loop in her long program, and a lutz in her short. I think she is gutsy for trying the difficult stuff after years of mainly sticking to toes and salchows. I hope she sticks it out through the difficult times.

  5. #35
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    Cynthia would be the favourite as defending champion. Amelie however did place ahead of her at Skate Canada International. Cynthia has some time now to get into form with Brian Orser and be ready for Nationals.

    Adrianna is a skater that could be included in the top 6 list. Only reason I left her out is due to her not doing well at Skate Canada International and that both Vanessa and Kaetlyn beat her at Octoberfest.

    Kudos to Alexandra for attempting a more difficult program. She is still young and will definitely be a contender. There are other skaters that are attempting the Lutz, Flip, and Loop (Grenier). Word around Alberta is that Kaetlyn is attempting 3 triples in her short. It should be an interesting competition.

    Based on last years nationals and preference for Worlds, it will be a battle between Cynthia and Amelie. But will there be an upset and a new young champion crowned similar to Cynthia when she was 15. It is possible.

    But for Challenge, all of these top skaters should make it to Nationals. Interesting enough, Roxanne (2011 Junior Champion) is not really mentioned as a prediction to do well here. More interesting is that she used to train with Cynthia.

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  7. #37
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    Thanks for this! Ok.... Junior Dance is too tough to call. There are a lot of experienced strong teams. I wonder which teams will be left behind.

    Senior Dance:
    It would seem all the teams are through to Nationals! By my count, we lost 3 teams over the season - Arnold/Trojek, Arrotta/Nickel, and Dupont/Connolly. All of these teams would have been top 10 by my guesstimation at Nationals. I guess that confirms the rumour that Arnold/Trojek are done as a team. But what about the other 2 teams? Are they still skating? Injured? We gained 1 team: Bissonnette/Lockey Chatham. They were at Nationals last year, but have not been seen in competition since. Interesting. Challenge is a tough first competition!

    Because all these teams will go through to Nationals, I don't think they actually have to show up and skate. When I look at the geography of these teams, only 2 are actually based out West, but all the way in Vancouver. 1 team trains in Texas, and the rest all are based in Ontario and Quebec. Not to mention the fact that Regina is a pretty wintery place. Some teams may want to protect their marks from Sectionals. I'm going to guess there will not be 10 teams at Challenge in Senior Dance. That being said, if they do all show up, this is how I expect it to finish, assuming clean skates all around:

    1. Gilles/Poirier - no one is going to catch them here

    2., 3., and 4., in any order: Orford/Williams, Lioudvinevitch/Mulder, Van As/Shindle

    5., 6., and 7., in any order: Ritchie-Hervieux/Masse, Letourneau/Boczar, Smy Joly/Jesionek

    8., 9., and 10., in any order: Dumas/Mackay Perry, De Cotret-Laporte/Laliberte, Bissonnette/Lockey Chatham


    Last year, there were only 9 or 10 teams in total at Nationals in Senior Dance. Nice to see there will be a full roster of 15 teams.

  8. #38
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    Changes from the initial list (initial guess, really) for junior entries at Challenge:

    1) Men
    Garrett Gosselin not entered in junior (or senior).
    Denis Margalik from COS added. He was on the JGP list this season but did not actually compete, unless I missed his results.
    Samuel Angers from QC not entered. He had a bye due to his JGP assignment. Is he injured?

    2) Women:
    Natasha Purich from AB is added - bye due to Grand Prix pairs assignment?
    Brittany Jones fro WOS added - bye due to Grand Prix pairs assignment?
    Julia Mercer from Newfoundland added - not entered in sectionals but she is the only skater from Nfld so she qualifies.

    3) Pairs
    Alexandra Young/Matthew Young from Newfoundland are added to the list.
    Mary Orr/Anthony Furiano WOS, Shelana Rau/Phelan Simpson WOS and Leah Hyslop/Bob Goodwin WOS are not entered at Challenge, but will qualify for Canadians anyway because of the lack of junior teams.

    4) Dance
    Only change from the original guess is that Kylie Knight/Allan Stoll WOS are not entered - split, retired or injured?

    These changes have been entered in the earlier posts.

  9. #39
    Spending too much time at the arena CdnSkateWatcher's Avatar
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    Does anyone have any insights into why they chose Regina for Challenge? I agree that it is unfair that it has been Ontario based for quite some time - however, Regina is a very expensive venue for skaters and coaches. There are other Western/Prairie area venues that would have been more logical and cost-effective. I wonder if the withdrawals would have been less if the cost had been lower (i.e. airfare, etc).

  10. #40
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    I believe the deal with Mississauga ran out last year and then this year they were hosting Skate Canada International Grand Prix. In order to host an event with Skate Canada, the respective groups have to submit applications. Regina may have been the only application, we don't know. And the center has to have the facility to handle these many skaters (about 500) and practice times.

    Every year there are teams/skaters that do not have to compete at Challenge due to the number of entries. Withdrawn teams have occured in Mississauga over the last few years. Some go for the competition. A few years ago, Challenge was held in Moncton. Nationals will be held there in January. Weather and air travel schedule, I feel, will possibly affect that competition.

    So basically it is luck of the draw. Do you go for the competition or save the cash knowing that you already qualified?

  11. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by NorthernDancers View Post
    Yes, very small group. Now I did notice that the new schedule is posted today. I the Junior Pair event is very, very small.
    Just shows you how much of a joke pairs is

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