Michelle's programs/level of difficulty

I was wondering what program and what performance she skated to that was her most difficult if judging by her jumps being ratified, no urs, no flutzing,footwork, transitions, the choreography, everything CoP scores today. After breaking it down, how would she fare in the LP pintwise. Was there a year where she had the packed sp/lp with highest levels for her. Is it easier to judge the sp and lp from same competition then look at it from CoP judging. I'd like to know how her best program/comp stacks up against the best CoP skaters, as in YK,JR, MA.

I have my favorite MK programs foe pure enjoyment but not being a skater, it's hard to judge difficulty.

What was her most ambitious program in your opinions and how does it translate in modern system?

I think Salome LP looked very difficult due to choreography, the acting plus the technical level, but i could be way off base. It was amazing to me the judges gave her gold over a mature perfect performance of Chen Lu. Thank you for your thoughts.

You can't compare Kwan's 6.0 programs to IJS programs because her spins would all be level 1 and steps, too. 6.0 programs can't really be compared to IJS programs.

I think the 1996 and 1997 programs were the most ambitious in terms of skating content between the elements.

Some of the spins would have been worth level 2 or 3, or she certainly showed the skills to achieve those levels even if she didn't combine them in just the right ways to fit the rules.

Much of the time that she was competing step sequences and spiral sequences were not required in the LP. Most sequences from that era from all skaters would have been level 1 or would have received no credit. Of course, spiral sequences are no longer leveled today either, so it's just a question of holding the position(s) long enough.

Find a clean performance with the 3T+3T and at least one 2A within the first 7 jumping passes, and that would probably be the one with the highest TES by today's rules. Edge calls would have been more likely earlier in her career.

Or would you want to look at short programs also?

She would have scored well in PCS -- I think the Skating Skills would have been stronger later in her career but the Transitions and Choreography earlier. Maybe her best performances from 1997 would be the peak of both, but she had some bad ones that year as well.

gkelly said:

Find a clean performance with the 3T+3T and at least one 2A within the first 7 jumping passes, and that would probably be the one with the highest TES by today's rules.

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According to Heather's jump statistics page, that would be the 1995 Skate America Salome (with an extra 2A in her eighth pass), 2000 worlds Red Violin, and 2001 worlds Song of the Black Swan in both qualifying round and the free skate. In all pf these four she did

3L, 3T/3T, 3Z/2T, 3S, 3F, 2A, 3Z

Edited to add: I think that comes to 39.5 base value in the current CoP scale, not counting second half bonuses.

For comparison, the all-time highest-scored ladies CoP program was Yuna Kim's Olympic LP.

3Lz+3T, 3F, 2A+2T+2Lo, 2A+3T, 3S, 3Lz, 2A = 42.8, allowing the third 2A.

If we give Michelle credit for her extra 2A (eighth jumping pass) in Salome, Michelle's total is exactly 42.8.

IMHO, Michelle Kwan's 1998 short and long programs were brilliant. Great music, great technical content, great musical expression. Granted, she never landed a triple axel (as most women also did not do) and her 3/3 combination of toe/toe wasn't the most difficult out there. Yet, she skated like a dream, floated across the ice, really felt the music, and connected with the audience.

I doubt if anybody will ever match her competitive success at US Nationals. She was a model of consistency and excellence.

Well, there are some skaters whose spins and/or spirals would have received higher level than 1 had they competed under CoP but Michelle doesn't belong to them. She rarely did a position which is now considered as a difficult variation, she didn't change the edge in her spins either or held them for a long time. Nevertheless, many spins of Slutskaya's or Cohen's would've been given level two or even three. There is lots of examples. But I agree that a lot of footworks wouldn't have been even recognised as a step sequence.

Mathman said:

If we give Michelle credit for her extra 2A (eighth jumping pass) in Salome, Michelle's total is exactly 42.8.

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Michelle couldn't have had three 2As with the same base value as Yuna, though. They both have 2 3Ts and 2 LZ, but since Michelle did hers as 3T-3T and Yuna as as the second jump in two different combinations, Michelle wouldn't have the spare slot. The 3T-3T takes up the space Yuna uses to do 2A-2T-2LO. Even if we assume that Michelle could do 2A-3T, which seems very likely (did she ever?), she'd have to repeat that twice, and then tack on a -2LO onto her 3LZ-2T. I'm not sure Michelle would have been capable of two -3T combinations and a three-jump combination with the 3LZ in the same program. That seems kind of ambitious, given what she showed throughout her career.

In all honesty, though, it's silly that a program with a 3T-3T and a 3LZ-3T can have essentially the same base value. COP needs to be better at representing the true value in difficulty of combinations and sequences.

However, Michelle totally could have gotten more than level 1 for a spin, though. I'm sure she would have been capable of holding a basic position for 8 revolutions, and doing the change foot combinations. Edge change spins are fugly, that's why she didn't do them. They were just invented to be a feature for COP spins, really. I'm sure if they'd been a thing in her day, she could have mastered them. Plus spinning in both directions is a level feature, or at least it was at one point.

If Michelle just wanted to add a couple more CoP points she could always tack a +2T+2T onto one of her solo jumps. That is another example, along with spin variations, that skaters of the past didn't do because they did not add anything of value to the program.

Michelle always did each of the five triples plus double Axel in every long program (until the very end, when she couldn't do the loop any more). I think skaters of that era thought this was a demonstration of mastery of their craft. Nowadays it is rare because you can get more points by other jump layouts.

I am not a fan of the CoP because we don't see the glide and flow that really is beautiful figure skating. I guess it is the overly busy footwork and some very pointless movement that garners points at the expense of the overall effect. It seems that everyone loves Caro's watered down programs technically and judges are rewarding her. I have always felt that mastery of the 5 triples with correct rotations and correct edges should be the basics of what seniors should do with double axel. Was there a time when this was required and the standard? Which top ladies brought the perfect 5 triples plus double axels into competiton? (with or without a double jump tacked on). I learn a lot from you quantitative types on this board.

I agree that 1998 Programs Romanza and Lyrica were gorgeous, technically great, and so emotionally satisfying. I think Michelle was skating then with youthful innocence and joy. I never thought she held back in Nagano. My favorite Michelle 'era' was 19996-1998. I think she was a different skater in some ways after Nagano. Michelle was a victim of her own popularity, and I know she could have done more difficult combinations, but they kept giving her 6.0's and gold medals with her triple, double combinations. Anyway, this has answered some of my questions about her levels under CoP. Very interesting, Mathman.

skateluvr said:

Which top ladies brought the perfect 5 triples plus double axels into competiton? (with or without a double jump tacked on). I learn a lot from you quantitative types on this board.

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In the CoP era, Joannie Rochette most recently. YuNa Kim has, in 2007. Miki Ando too, probably. Carolina Kostner may have been capable of it as well, before her nerves and/or injuries left her botching or missing jumps in the past few years.

skateluvr said:

I agree that 1998 Programs Romanza and Lyrica were gorgeous, technically great, and so emotionally satisfying. I think Michelle was skating then with youthful innocence and joy. I never thought she held back in Nagano. My favorite Michelle 'era' was 19996-1998. I think she was a different skater in some ways after Nagano. Michelle was a victim of her own popularity, and I know she could have done more difficult combinations, but they kept giving her 6.0's and gold medals with her triple, double combinations.

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1995-1996 SP was Romanza, 1998 SP was Rachmaninoff (both great!) 1998 LP was Lyra Angelica, not Lyrica (pregabalin) LOL but that's a cute nickname for it. I agree, those were great years for her with very memorable programs.

As for my thoughts on the number-crunching, Michelle's theoretical jumps-only base value would be decreased, in my opinion, by 2.00 for the ! or e call she would likely get on her 3Lz under CoP. If CoP were improved, it would/should reward the successful execution of the 5 standard triples (I don't know if ya'll would want to reward flawed attempts like edge calls or underrotations but the attempt is commendable nonetheless so I'll give her that), as well as give a little more credit to the more-difficult 3-3 combinations vs. the 3T-3T. So there might be some extra balancing there.

I would like to point out, though, that what gave YuNa the eyepopping score at the Olympics was not really her base value as much as it was the GOE's she earned, especially on her jumps. So base value estimation is only part of the story.

OOps, messed up my Romanza with my Rach. Lyrica is my name for that program. It's cute, yes? Thanks for correction prettykeys.

skateluvr said:

OOps, messed up my Romanza with my Rach. Lyrica is my name for that program. It's cute, yes?

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Haha, yes, especially considering that Lyrica is usually prescribed for chronic nerve pain, and that program has a very soothing quality to it.

For comparison, here are some jump layouts by the top guns of recent years.

Miki Ando, 2011 Worlds. 3Lz+2Lo, 3Lo, 2A+3T (intended), 3Lz, 3S, 3T, 2A+2Lo+2Lo = 40.3 (no flip)

Mao Asada, 2010 Worlds. 3A, 3A+2T, 3F+2Lo, 3F+2Lo, 3F+2Lo+2Lo, 3 Lo, 3T, 2A = 47.9 (No Lutz, no Salchow). But she lost the LP anyway.

Joannie Rochette, 2009 Worlds. 3Lz+2T+2Lo, 3F, 3Lo, 3Lz, 3T+3S seq, 2A+2A seq, 3S = 41.52. (All five triples, plus two double Axels )

So I think, to speak to the original question, that Michelle's base value for jumps is not too far off the pace (excluding a perfect two triple-Axel performance by Mao), even without tweaking for CoP. (She could pick up 4.4 extra points by dropping the CoP-unfriendly 3T+3T and the solo 2A and do instead 2A+3T and 3F+2T+2Lo.)

doubleflutz said:

Michelle couldn't have had three 2As with the same base value as Yuna, though. They both have 2 3Ts and 2 LZ, but since Michelle did hers as 3T-3T and Yuna as as the second jump in two different combinations, Michelle wouldn't have the spare slot. The 3T-3T takes up the space Yuna uses to do 2A-2T-2LO. Even if we assume that Michelle could do 2A-3T, which seems very likely (did she ever?), she'd have to repeat that twice, and then tack on a -2LO onto her 3LZ-2T. I'm not sure Michelle would have been capable of two -3T combinations and a three-jump combination with the 3LZ in the same program. That seems kind of ambitious, given what she showed throughout her career.

In all honesty, though, it's silly that a program with a 3T-3T and a 3LZ-3T can have essentially the same base value. COP needs to be better at representing the true value in difficulty of combinations and sequences.

However, Michelle totally could have gotten more than level 1 for a spin, though. I'm sure she would have been capable of holding a basic position for 8 revolutions, and doing the change foot combinations. Edge change spins are fugly, that's why she didn't do them. They were just invented to be a feature for COP spins, really. I'm sure if they'd been a thing in her day, she could have mastered them. Plus spinning in both directions is a level feature, or at least it was at one point.

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That is not true. Spins with change of edge ehen done steadily and with a deep edge are beautiful and just more difficult than simple spins. And they were not invented for the sake of CoP. Skaters like Sasha Cohen or Fumie Suguri used to them even though the judges didn't pay attention to it back than. And on a good day, Sasha's camel spin with that deeep edge was a thing of beauty. Michelle tried to add change of edge to her spins in 2004-2005 season but she wasn't really comfortable with it. Watch her Martshall's World Cup 2004 where she got shaky on her simple upright spin because she changed the edge.

Trying the new spins at that point in her career hurt her back, and she had to stop.

prettykeys said:

Haha, yes, especially considering that Lyrica is usually prescribed for chronic nerve pain, and that program has a very soothing quality to it.

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It doesn't work, I've tried it (Lyrica the drug). However, the program DOES WORK. It is the most sublime peice of skating in the modern era. Bar none. Yuna would agree I'm sure.

skateluvr said:

It doesn't work, I've tried it (Lyrica the drug). However, the program DOES WORK. It is the most sublime peice of skating in the modern era. Bar none. Yuna would agree I'm sure.

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I agree about the program. Funnily enough, I avoided it for some years because of the results of the '98 Olympics. When I finally came back to it, I watched the Nationals version, and it instantly became one of my top favorite programs of all time, hers or anyone's. You're right, it is just sublime.

Mathman, in reference to the spins hurting Michelle's back, I've heard it said that she was among the least naturally flexible of the great skaters. I'm willing to believe it. I love her grace, musicality, lightness, and meticulous technique, but even I, an uberfan if there ever was one, can see that her Ina Bauer has barely any bend at all. This physiological shortcoming makes Michelle even more admirable to me, because it shows that she skates on will and heart as much as she does on natural gifts.

By the way, I'm all for comparing 6.0 skaters with CoP skaters, but I don't think you can evaluate a skater in terms of a particular program. Of course Michelle would have skated a different way if she had been skating during a different judging system. Consider that her choreographer was Lori Nichol. If ever a formerly 6.0-compatible choreographer has proven herself adept at maneuvering through the rules of CoP, it's Nichol, who had two sets of gold medals to her credit in 2010--Lysacek and Shen/Zhao. And the winning coach behind Lysacek was Kwan's coach Frank Carroll. Maybe a 26-year-old Kwan would have had trouble achieving a splendid CoP program, but a 17-year-old Kwan would have measured up just fine.

Excellent post Olympia, every word spot on. I really wonder sometimes if Michelle was angry when she left Frank, because he did a great job of building her confidence from a young age and he was always saying to her and us she was the best skater in the world. I think she was not pushed by him to do the 3x3's she easily could have and she was not pushed to do a more difficult 3x3. When I see her Rach Sp from 98 and even more so Lyra Angelica, it is transcendant. So maybe it was all meant to be. I certainly felt a little bad for Frank, BTW and i was not too happy with Michelle's attitude (which should have been gratitude) when he was fired. I know she said she still loved him in an interview, but Lori Nichol and Frank truly made Michelle the skater she was. They formed a talented jumping bean into much more.

I remember feeling the same hurt for Brian, who's such a nice man, when Yuna left and it was ugly. Sometimes the big stars forget who they owe. I remember other skaters profusely praising coaches. Anyway, i love MK's skating but was a bit disappointed in that time period. I have no problem watching Oly 98 as MK skated lights out and it was gorgeous. A different skater won by a margin with higher technical difficulty and she skated very maturely I thought, though she was a child and not a woman. Michelle will go down, as Peggy said, as "the greatest female skater ever" because of her amazing longevity at the top. If she had won in 98, she would have likely scaled back, or maybe retired and gone to college as she wanted to with her age group. Michelle was competing for that gold. I personally have a much harder time watching her Salt lake LP because of the fall and she was very tight. It was not the best program and certainly not the Michelle we saw at Worlds and Nationals so many times.

I'm glad she did not win gold at Olympics because it kept her hungry and we had so many other amazing skates to remember. So selfishly, I am happy she had the exact career she did. I'm hoping she decides diplomacy is boring and comes back, gets her triples back and has a big Elaine Zayak moment. Look at Plushenko, he may fail, but it is awesome he wants to try. I think Michelle could revive skating in USA for a season or two. And even with her age against her, isn't it just the sort of challenge that MK would love? Tara wants to be back on the ice and it appears Sarah does too.

The comeback of all comebacks! I know, I know, just crazy dreaming. I wonder beside Lyra, what MK fans like to watch the most? I love Song of the Black Swan, and for raw emotion, FOG Exhibition at SL. But there are more. I hardly know where to start. I wonder what other MK diehards enjoy watching? Maybe give us a link of the program and the skate that moved you most? You've maybe done this thread before, but with the current ladies, i miss MK a lot this past two seasons.

Olympia said:

....Of course Michelle would have skated a different way if she had been skating during a different judging system. Consider that her choreographer was Lori Nichol. If ever a formerly 6.0-compatible choreographer has proven herself adept at maneuvering through the rules of CoP, it's Nichol, who had two sets of gold medals to her credit in 2010--Lysacek and Shen/Zhao. And the winning coach behind Lysacek was Kwan's coach Frank Carroll. Maybe a 26-year-old Kwan would have had trouble achieving a splendid CoP program, but a 17-year-old Kwan would have measured up just fine.

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This was my first thought when I read the original question - Michelle was simply the best skater of her generation and I believe her talent, technique, and drive would've made that true regardless of the judging system. However, in terms of program - Red Violin is the first program that jumps to mind. The jump difficulty and choreographry still stand up to modern standards and the spins would've been different to accomidate the point system.

skateluvr said:

... I really wonder sometimes if Michelle was angry when she left Frank, because he did a great job of building her confidence from a young age and he was always saying to her and us she was the best skater in the world. I think she was not pushed by him to do the 3x3's she easily could have and she was not pushed to do a more difficult 3x3. When I see her Rach Sp from 98 and even more so Lyra Angelica, it is transcendant. So maybe it was all meant to be. I certainly felt a little bad for Frank, BTW and i was not too happy with Michelle's attitude (which should have been gratitude) when he was fired. I know she said she still loved him in an interview, but Lori Nichol and Frank truly made Michelle the skater she was. They formed a talented jumping bean into much more.

Sometimes the big stars forget who they owe. I remember other skaters profusely praising coaches. Anyway, i love MK's skating but was a bit disappointed in that time period.

The comeback of all comebacks! I know, I know, just crazy dreaming. I wonder beside Lyra, what MK fans like to watch the most? I love Song of the Black Swan, and for raw emotion, FOG Exhibition at SL. But there are more. I hardly know where to start. I wonder what other MK diehards enjoy watching? Maybe give us a link of the program and the skate that moved you most? You've maybe done this thread before, but with the current ladies, i miss MK a lot this past two seasons.

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I've never questioned Michelle's reasoning for leaving Frank because I don't buy the arguement that any one coach "makes" a skater. Either they do what's necessary to win or they don't. I would also agrue that coaches can forget that they are "the help." And therefore paid to perform a specific service. If that relationship breaks down, then the employer has every right to move on... just like any other boss / staff relationship. I can see Michelle becoming frustrated and wanting to take a bigger role in her skating and its construction. She has always struck me as a take charge, "the buck stops here" grown up in all areas of her life and Frank didn't respect that as she got older, I can see that becoming a problem. Think back to her waiting to Frank was on vacation to take her seniors' qualifying test - I've heard him say over the years that "she went behind my back." Really? Behind your back? That's a big much. Espcially since it's always been clear that only person with any influenance on her decisions is her dad... and then only to a point.

Now, a true Michelle Kwan uber who dreams of her coming back, I can say without question that the three programs I could watch all day long in order of greatness to me are:

Tosca, US Nationals (Kwan at her arrogant best)
Red Violin, Worlds (simply brilliant)
Fields of Gold, Olympics (makes me cry everytime)

It amuses me that I never consider her earlier programs (ie Lyrica) because I prefer the grown up Michelle to the teen version...

skateluvr said:

It doesn't work, I've tried it (Lyrica the drug). However, the program DOES WORK. It is the most sublime peice of skating in the modern era. Bar none. Yuna would agree I'm sure.

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I think so... I have always felt her debut LP: Lark Ascending's aqua blue costumes looks somewhat familiar