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Thread: Men's Free Skate, Sat. 11/19 at 7:30 am EST

  1. #151
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    I'm not complaining. Just pointing out that the risk is small. If you try a "risky" move and fall, the penalty is not very great -- so why not go for it?
    If someone falls doing a jump unique to him or herself, that should be taken into account. When skater A lands a jump but skater B falls on the same jump, it is different. When skater B falls a few times on jumps that skater A landed successfully, skater A should have a comfortable margin. Maybe skater B can make up a few points by being more musical or whatever, but he should not beat him, in my opinion.

  2. #152
    leave no stone unturned seniorita's Avatar
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    I want to ask two things, firstly Oda is a royal decendent? WOW! A prince!

    And second, mistake-maker is a real word?Or something like the ring-bearer?

  3. #153
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    Quote Originally Posted by seniorita View Post
    I want to ask two things, firstly Oda is a royal decendent? WOW! A prince!
    More like a Warlord, who united much of Japan. I know, Oda looks nothing like a Warlord, but his ancestors were.

    eta: Wiki's account of Oda Nobunaga.

    Scroll down to Later descendants to see Nobunari Oda mentioned. Also the entry of Nobunari Oda. Read Personal life.
    Last edited by SkateFiguring; 11-20-2011 at 05:23 PM.

  4. #154
    Rooting for the divas with Kwanford Spun Silver's Avatar
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    ^^ Ring-bearer is a real word (if only a wedding word). But mistake-maker... well, English is very flexible. Is it easy to make up words in Spanish? (If that's your language, seniorita - I don't remember.)

  5. #155
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bluebonnet View Post
    Pogue, I think you are too severe on Patrick. Yes, his face looked pale and didn't have his usual good over all jumps, and fell on circular footworks. But he has maintained his beautiful choreograph and interpretation. His over all performance and execution was good. Not the best he can do, but very, very good. Maybe he didn't have the nenergy like he had in SC in the last sequence. But he was still able to take the audience into his program and to the climax in the end. Notice that the audience started to clap before he even finished his program?! Then the audience clapped lauder after the program with some yelling to show that they loved what he just did. I felt his power when I watch it.

    I love the sparkles added on his red shirt. It goes with the music more. But still hate the stripes on the black pants. This program really is a masterpiece! I'd love to see it skated perfectly!
    I went and rewatched it. For me, it's off from the get go. Watch his opening move. It's a simple, elegant maneuver that signifies his intention: calm speed, controlled passion. At the Japan Open and SC, it's startlingly fast and surprisingly expressive. At TEB, it's less so (full disclosure: I have HD video of the JO and SC performances, but not of the TEB). But the double axel was wonky, of course and the fall during the footwork devastating. At that point, he fell behind the music and struggled to catch up. The death drop spin, so wonderful when timed with the flourish and generally so huge, was less so here. Now, I will say I understated his fight. Landing the triple loop, with that brief entry, was impressive (the loop is his second weakest jump, after the triple axel). He clearly put all of himself into those quads. It's not the worst he's ever skated, but it felt like it.

    I agree with you: this program is a masterpiece. I truly believe that when skated clean, I will consider it one of the all time great programs (according to me).

    SF, I want him to be bored with "Take Five," actually. I want him to stop keeping programs (and I want him to explore other choreographers, but whatever).

  6. #156
    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SkateFiguring View Post
    I disagree about the risk being small. E.G. Takahashi certainly would gain quite a few points and possibly higher placements, even an Olympic Gold Medal, by substituting a triple for his quad, which usually rewards him around 2 - 3 points. That's why there are those who admire his determination and those who are puzzled by his stubbornness.
    I do not consider that a big risk. Let's say he gets 3 points for a failed 4 flip, as opposed to 5.3 points for a successful 3 flip. That's a penalty of only 2.3 points.

    If he rotates the 4 flip but then falls, the penalty is approximately 0.

    If he succeeds with the 4 flip he gets 10 points or so -- double the value of the 3-flip.

    There certainly isn't any additional penalty in the PCSs, as we just saw.

  7. #157
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    I do not consider that a big risk. Let's say he gets 3 points for a failed 4 flip, as opposed to 5.3 points for a successful 3 flip. That's a penalty of only 2.3 points.

    If he rotates the 4 flip but then falls, the penalty is approximately 0.

    If he succeeds with the 4 flip he gets 10 points or so -- double the value of the 3-flip.

    There certainly isn't any additional penalty in the PCSs, as we just saw.
    Quad risks varies among the skaters, depending on the likelihood of success, which is why most would not try it in a competition until there is an acceptable chance of success. Of course with the rule change, the acceptable rate of success for each skater has fallen. E.g. whereas a skater might only try it in competition with confidence factor of 90% when the penalty was high may now do it with a 75% success rate. A risk taker may drop the practice success rate to 50% these days before actual attempts in competition. Patrick Chan waits for 80% success in practice before putting it in the program in competition.

    If we look at Takahashi's Quads, from Quads Of The Season that I compiled, he had just one success all of last season, a 4T at NHK, and his 3 other quads earned him 2 - 3.50 points, 1 - 2.5 with fall deductions, and I assumed his attempt at Worlds would have likely failed as well. A 3F has a base value of 5.30, 5.83 if done during the second half of the program, and he is likely to receive GOE too, especially without the quad attempt taking out his energy. Thus, in 75-80% of cases, he is certain of giving away at least 2.8 points from his already relatively low TES, more with +GOE for his 3F. His 4F at NHK 2011 is relatively successful, with a < instead of usual << and it earned him (5.0 -1.0 =)4 points, still less than an OK 3F at 5.3 or 5.83. If he were to do a 3Lz (worth 6.0 or 6.6 with bonus) instead, the point deficit increases to 3.5 or more. Considering it was also at NHK that he had the sole quad success last year, it is not necessarily encouraging for success for the rest of the season. However, maybe he does feel more confident this season with a fully repaired knee.

    At Takahashi's rate of success, it is a big risk, an almost certain loss of valuable points at crucial competitions, eating away his PCS advantage, even before we consider the effect of his poorly invested energy in the quad. He is so used to falling at the quad attempt at the beginning of his program so the program disruption is stabilized and minimized, still it might help his P/E without the fall.

    The risk for someone able to at least fully rotate the quad most of the times, it's a worthwile risk. But it's not a certainly, especially for skaters beginning quad attempts in competitions even if they do full rotations regularly in practice. Then again, we see over and over how later jumps and sometimes the whole program just fall apart after a quad attempt, successful or not. There is still a heavy price aka risk except for the few for whom quads are routine. Or maybe, as we have seen what happens with Kevin Reynalds.

    I expect the psychological effect of more and more quads attempted and landed will make the its negative impact on the program much less than before. But as of now, I really can't agree that there is no risk in quad attempts. Only the risk varies with different skaters, depending on their rate of success, the quad's impact on their program, and on their stakes in the competition.
    Last edited by SkateFiguring; 11-20-2011 at 07:46 PM.

  8. #158
    Beliver in Sasha's Perfect Program Tinymavy15's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by skatinginbc View Post
    I don't skate. I imagine skating with a fever is like walking on a rope with vertigo. The thought of it makes me dizzy already.
    it is not the dizzy feeling as much as the fatigue that is a factor (at least for me). When I have a fever I don't even feel like stroking around, never mind trying my hardest jumps and skating and performing through a 4:30 program.

    Poodlepal, favorites have always been and always will be held up to some degree. I always said Chan was usually over scored in the past, but I have to admit this freeskate is a masterpiece and he skates it with "presence" something he did not always have and something that you kind of have to be in the arena to feel. This is the same presence Lysacek demanded after he won his world title, and what in the end awarded him the OGM

  9. #159
    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SkateFiguring View Post
    Patrick Chan waits for 80% success in practice before putting it in the program in competition...

    {Takahashi's) 4F at NHK 2011 is relatively successful, with a < instead of usual << and it earned him (5.0 -1.0) = 4 points, still less than an OK 3F at 5.3 or 5.83. If he were to do a 3Lz (worth 6.0 or 6.6 with bonus) instead, the point deficit increases to 3.5 or more.
    Actually, I believe it was 5.60 - 1.00 for his quad flip attempt at HNK.

    Now let's see what he could put into his program as the eighth jumping pass that would get him more than 4.60 points. He already has two triple Axels and two triple flips. He also has a Lutz, Loop, Salchow and toe. So he couldn't replaces the 4F with any triple, He has three combos, so he can't do another combo or sequence. He is Zayaked out (the fate of all men who try to do as many triples as possible without a quad.)

    So let's say he puts a double Axel (3.3 points) in that spot.

    As for consistency in practice, I bet in practice Takahashi can rotate three and a half times and then fall fairly consistently -- 80% of the time for sure.

    So COP-wise he absolutely should go for the 4F<+fall in every program -- no risk at all, compared to the alternative jump layouts that he might try. As a bonus, he gets to do three flips, his best jump.

    Buttle figured it out. So can Takahashi.

  10. #160
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    How about a 4T? Something he has actually landed (NHK 2010). It's easier than the 4F, so he'll more likely get better rotation/better GOEs consequently.

  11. #161
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    The current rule of falling on an element is ridiculous. It has propelled Chanflation phenomenon. If you fall on an element, that element should be scored as zero, period. It's a failed attempt and should get no credit. Why is it so difficult for ISU to understand?

  12. #162
    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ImaginaryPogue View Post
    How about a 4T? Something he has actually landed (NHK 2010). It's easier than the 4F, so he'll more likely get better rotation/better GOEs consequently.
    I think he just wants to do the quad flip. Who wouldn't? Since there is no real downside to failing, Bob's your uncle.
    Last edited by Mathman; 11-20-2011 at 09:53 PM.

  13. #163
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    Quote Originally Posted by skateflower View Post
    The current rule of falling on an element is ridiculous. It has propelled Chanflation phenomenon. If you fall on an element, that element should be scored as zero, period. It's a failed attempt and should get no credit. Why is it so difficult for ISU to understand?
    ISU reacted to calculated quad attempts with severe penalties for failed quad but nowhere near the total discredit that you propose. The Quadsters like Joubert and Plushenko complained that the risks they took were very inadequately rewarded and also lamented the lack of quads from inferior skaters who managed to win competitions, including Worlds and the Olympics, so ISU increased the BV of quads, and instituted a UR (<) with less reduction than the DG (<<) which would give the BV of the triple equivalent. A fall receives -3 GOE and another -1 deduction. So now just about every senior male skater is doing quads and a 4Lz is officially recognized. Thus it is a very successful change of rules as far as the objective of encouraging quads is concerned. As for scoring quads, everyone is marked the same way as per rule so why do you single out Chan? He didn't win because of falls but because of everythig he is able to better than almost everyone else.

  14. #164
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    Quote Originally Posted by SkateFiguring View Post
    ISU reacted to calculated quad attempts with severe penalties for failed quad but nowhere near the total discredit that you propose. The Quadsters like Joubert and Plushenko complained that the risks they took were very inadequately rewarded .
    The solution is not to tweak the goe on a fall. The solution is to give zero to a fall but increase the base value for a successful attempt. This is investment 101, high risk and high return. The current penalty on a failed element and base value for high risk elements are both insufficient. That's exactly why the scores for a lots of extremely messy performances are very stupid. D/R got their sb for their disastrous lp because of this stupid system. I have no problem with skaters who try hard elements successfully to get rewarded very generously. But if they fail, the penalty also has to be dramatic.

  15. #165
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    Mathman, you're right about Takahashi's score for his NHK's 4F. He does a 3Lz+2T so can he do a 3Lz in place of the 4F? It's worth even more than a 3F that we used for comparison.

    I posted before why it's more worthwhile for Dai to try 4F than 4T as long as his rates of success are low for both. Their GOE values are the same, which means same deductions for failures thus a higher final value for 4F which has a higher BV.

    Like I said, Dai has been falling on his quads so it's part of his expectation which he handles well without ill mental effect on his program, unlike quad rookies. Still, we don't know the energy cost of his failed quads.

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