I want to ask two things, firstly Oda is a royal decendent? WOW! A prince!
And second, mistake-maker is a real word?Or something like the ring-bearer?
Last edited by Violet Bliss; 11-20-2011 at 05:23 PM.
^^ Ring-bearer is a real word (if only a wedding word). But mistake-maker... well, English is very flexible. Is it easy to make up words in Spanish? (If that's your language, seniorita - I don't remember.)
I agree with you: this program is a masterpiece. I truly believe that when skated clean, I will consider it one of the all time great programs (according to me).
SF, I want him to be bored with "Take Five," actually. I want him to stop keeping programs (and I want him to explore other choreographers, but whatever).
If he rotates the 4 flip but then falls, the penalty is approximately 0.
If he succeeds with the 4 flip he gets 10 points or so -- double the value of the 3-flip.
There certainly isn't any additional penalty in the PCSs, as we just saw.
If we look at Takahashi's Quads, from Quads Of The Season that I compiled, he had just one success all of last season, a 4T at NHK, and his 3 other quads earned him 2 - 3.50 points, 1 - 2.5 with fall deductions, and I assumed his attempt at Worlds would have likely failed as well. A 3F has a base value of 5.30, 5.83 if done during the second half of the program, and he is likely to receive GOE too, especially without the quad attempt taking out his energy. Thus, in 75-80% of cases, he is certain of giving away at least 2.8 points from his already relatively low TES, more with +GOE for his 3F. His 4F at NHK 2011 is relatively successful, with a < instead of usual << and it earned him (5.0 -1.0 =)4 points, still less than an OK 3F at 5.3 or 5.83. If he were to do a 3Lz (worth 6.0 or 6.6 with bonus) instead, the point deficit increases to 3.5 or more. Considering it was also at NHK that he had the sole quad success last year, it is not necessarily encouraging for success for the rest of the season. However, maybe he does feel more confident this season with a fully repaired knee.
At Takahashi's rate of success, it is a big risk, an almost certain loss of valuable points at crucial competitions, eating away his PCS advantage, even before we consider the effect of his poorly invested energy in the quad. He is so used to falling at the quad attempt at the beginning of his program so the program disruption is stabilized and minimized, still it might help his P/E without the fall.
The risk for someone able to at least fully rotate the quad most of the times, it's a worthwile risk. But it's not a certainly, especially for skaters beginning quad attempts in competitions even if they do full rotations regularly in practice. Then again, we see over and over how later jumps and sometimes the whole program just fall apart after a quad attempt, successful or not. There is still a heavy price aka risk except for the few for whom quads are routine. Or maybe, as we have seen what happens with Kevin Reynalds.
I expect the psychological effect of more and more quads attempted and landed will make the its negative impact on the program much less than before. But as of now, I really can't agree that there is no risk in quad attempts. Only the risk varies with different skaters, depending on their rate of success, the quad's impact on their program, and on their stakes in the competition.
Last edited by Violet Bliss; 11-20-2011 at 07:46 PM.
Poodlepal, favorites have always been and always will be held up to some degree. I always said Chan was usually over scored in the past, but I have to admit this freeskate is a masterpiece and he skates it with "presence" something he did not always have and something that you kind of have to be in the arena to feel. This is the same presence Lysacek demanded after he won his world title, and what in the end awarded him the OGM
Now let's see what he could put into his program as the eighth jumping pass that would get him more than 4.60 points. He already has two triple Axels and two triple flips. He also has a Lutz, Loop, Salchow and toe. So he couldn't replaces the 4F with any triple, He has three combos, so he can't do another combo or sequence. He is Zayaked out (the fate of all men who try to do as many triples as possible without a quad.)
So let's say he puts a double Axel (3.3 points) in that spot.
As for consistency in practice, I bet in practice Takahashi can rotate three and a half times and then fall fairly consistently -- 80% of the time for sure.
So COP-wise he absolutely should go for the 4F<+fall in every program -- no risk at all, compared to the alternative jump layouts that he might try. As a bonus, he gets to do three flips, his best jump.
Buttle figured it out. So can Takahashi.
How about a 4T? Something he has actually landed (NHK 2010). It's easier than the 4F, so he'll more likely get better rotation/better GOEs consequently.
The current rule of falling on an element is ridiculous. It has propelled Chanflation phenomenon. If you fall on an element, that element should be scored as zero, period. It's a failed attempt and should get no credit. Why is it so difficult for ISU to understand?
Mathman, you're right about Takahashi's score for his NHK's 4F. He does a 3Lz+2T so can he do a 3Lz in place of the 4F? It's worth even more than a 3F that we used for comparison.
I posted before why it's more worthwhile for Dai to try 4F than 4T as long as his rates of success are low for both. Their GOE values are the same, which means same deductions for failures thus a higher final value for 4F which has a higher BV.
Like I said, Dai has been falling on his quads so it's part of his expectation which he handles well without ill mental effect on his program, unlike quad rookies. Still, we don't know the energy cost of his failed quads.