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Thread: GP Final Analysis and Predictions

  1. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    You think Akiko would win if they all skated cleanly? Interesting.
    As long as Mao goes for the 2A in both Sp and Lp, yes, I believe a clean Akiko can win over a clean Mao, since Akiko's technical content is harder and the judged are finally giving her higher PCS this season. It's not a given, all I'm saying it's a possibility. And both of them can easily beat a clean Liza IF they go clean. Akiko won the LP in Skate Canada, having a few jump errors, in front of Liza who was clean(the only glitch was downgrading the 2A-3T to a 2A-2T). Plus, Akiko's PCS went through the roof in NHK trophy.
    The wild horse is Alissa, if she goes clean in both SP and LP(which sadly I don't see it happening) she has the ability to win. I just wouldn't bet my money on her to win, she is much to inconsistent.
    Of course I can see all the ladies failing to land the big jumps and Liza eating them alive on TES. But i don't want this to happen

  2. #47
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    Men
    Chan
    Hanyu
    Takahashi
    Fernandez
    Abbott
    Brezina

    Ladies
    Asada
    Kostner
    Suzuki
    Tuktamysheva
    Leonova
    Czisny

    Pairs
    Volosozhar & Trankov
    Savchenko & Szolkowy
    Kawaguti & Smirnov
    Zhang & Zhang

    Dance
    Davis & White
    Virtue& Moir
    Pechalat & Bourzat
    Shibutani & Shibutani

  3. #48
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    Ladies competition is really exciting because all of them can win and there is no someone like Chan or Kim. Liza will score hugely in TES but I don't think she'll win. With her difficult content she gets a bit over 120. The other ladies would get over 130 with it if they went clean (maybe except Leonova who will be devoid of her hometown bonus). And I think all of them clean will EASILY beat clean Liza. There's a huge difference in PCS. But none of this ladies has been clean in the FS this year so far so if they all err Liza might win. And there's still possibility that pressure will reach Liza and she'll be the one with errors. It's so unpredictable. Not like in dance when first two places are sure.

  4. #49
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    Okay, I know this is not going to be a popular opinion, but it is just the way I see it.

    I respect Mao and likes some of her early work (as well as her Olympic season program performed at WC2011), but can't help notice the blatant biases strongly favouring her over the other competitors supported by her strong (&rich) federation and ISU who seems determined to prop her up contrary to what is delivered. Although I still enjoy her exhibition like Jupiter which is free from these politicking. Having analysed all the scores from the top ladies, it seems this year ISU is determined to push her through to as some sort of entitled leading lady: 2 times world champion (though neither times won SP or LP on her both competitions).

    Her program is overmarked based on neither deliver the technical content or performance. Mao artistry has always been questionable (artistry is not one type of static beauty, though beauty certainly is one of the vocabularies of artistry). I think Mao has always been great when she is skating as herself. She is somewhat an innocent sheltered girl without much life experience who has always been put on a pedal stall, well protected, revered and adored by her country. When she does ethereal or charming, her performance resembles those little sweet darling girls performing to their loving parents who probably never said one critical thing to them except full of love, praises and support. Materials outside these narrow realms I am not yet convinced. Until recent Jupiter indicate she can do stuff outside her comfort zone, but she need to experience it to really get it. Lack of creativity and imagination could make her artistically stagnant unless a firm hand in guiding her to explore and experience things outside her comfort space.

    If you look her technical content for LP for example, it consist of only 4 triples, 2 in combinations, No 3A or 3:3 you'd expect from a leading lady of her calibre, yet during both of her competitions, only 3 clean triples counted for both.

    @ NHK she had the 3lutz edge call, 1 combo was under rotated. No 3:3 or 3A yet attempts. She scored 125.85 then, the HIGHEST LP score this year!
    @ CoR she again were only able to completed 3 triples, this time the failed 3lutz was downgraded. She scored 118.96 then!

    http://www.isuresults.com/isujsstat/...12/sbtslfs.htm

    Yes she is suppose to have level4 for her non jump elements (though I am not expert in these, but i find then questionable when her 2nd LP performance was visibly slower and tentative with less flows as well. Akiko and Carolina Kostner for me is more worthy of level 4 as they showed more attack, pace, flow and speed as well as coverage. I often hear praise for Mao being so light on ice..but physically she is the skinniest ladies skaters right now, so no wonder she is light on ice (?!) Surely had she been more attacking and more powerful, it would be more praise worthy or convincing?

    Take her 3 triples scores from the lesser LP score, with 3lutz downgrade 118.96 (without a 3A or 3:3) relative to other ladies contenders in the field:

    - Liza (Skate Canada 117.71 with 6 triples include 3:3, 2 in combination, clean, no negative GOE.) (TEB 120.85, 6 triples include 3:3, 2 in combinations, no negative GOE)
    - Alena (CoR, 117.54 with 6 triples, 1 under rotation)
    - Akiko (NHK 119.43, 6 triples, 1 edge on flip, 1 < on combo. Skate Canada 6 triples, 1 e on the combo, 1 combo was <)

    - Carolina Kostner (Another one propped up imho) (CoC 120.26, 5 triple program, 2 in combination, -GOE in 3F, 3S Combo)

    The highest total score for the ladies so far this year are

    1. Akiko NHK 185.98 (1x 3:3 in SP)
    2. MAO NHK 184.19 (no 3:3 or 3A in either LP or SP, mistakes and -GOE)
    3. MAO COR 183.25 (no 3:3 or 3A in either LP or SP, mistakes and -GOE)
    4. Liza 182.89 (2 x 3:3 in SP and LP. Clean, no negative GOE)
    5. Carolina COC 182.14 (1 x 3:3 in SP)
    6. Alena 180.83 (2 x 3:3 in SP and LP)
    7. Alissa Czisny, USA: 179.15 (Trophee Eric Bompard. no 3:3 But at Skate Amercia with a 3:3 was attempted but failed)

    While I agree Mao is a superior skater, I don't think the judge is marking her correctly based on what she is delivering now but what she ought to be.

    My conclusion. Given the political climate with ISU that clearly seems to favour 'certain' skaters.

    Their ideal is likely to be

    1. Mao (Japan has always favoured Mao above everyone else anyway, certainly Miki and Akiko.)
    2. Carolina
    3. Akiko/Liza

    If it is up to me based on merit of what I see, appeal and performance.
    I'd consider more likely to be

    1. Liza (I understand about the criticisms, but they are things she can't control, by default of her physical size, age, ice coverage are fault of the choreography. The things she can control, she always did well. Some might say she lack in maturity but I'd say actually she is maturer than her age AND maturer than other skaters ought to be at their age.)
    2. Akiko (Under marked for years, she deserve this, and for her gumption landing her 3:3 at age 26! Let alone her gorgeous musicality and generous performer spirit! She is simply charming, although I still prefer her old programs. )
    3. Mao/Carolina/Alissa (All following their strategically safe 'complementary' route that are supported by their strong federations, their RP, instead go out there and earn their rightful place which I know they are fully capable of based on their previous work.)

    --------
    Mens... had they all gone clean, my ideal would be

    1. Daisuke
    2. Hanyu/Patrick (only because they have the technical content to support it)
    3. Jeremy

    But what is more likely

    1. Patrick.
    2. Daisuke.
    3. Jeremy / Javier
    4. Hanyu/Javier
    Last edited by os168; 11-29-2011 at 10:09 AM.

  5. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by os168 View Post
    Okay, I know this is not going to be a popular opinion, but it is just the way I see it.

    I respect Mao and likes some of her early work (as well as her Olympic season program performed at WC2011), but can't help notice the blatant biases strongly favouring her over the other competitors supported by her strong (&rich) federation and ISU who seems determined to prop her up contrary to what is delivered. Although I still enjoy her exhibition like Jupiter which is free from these politicking. Having analysed all the scores from the top ladies, it seems this year ISU is determined to push her through to as some sort of entitled leading lady: 2 times world champion (though neither times won SP or LP on her both competitions).

    Her program is overmarked based on neither deliver the technical content or performance. Mao artistry has always been questionable (artistry is not one type of static beauty, though beauty certainly is one of the vocabularies of artistry). I think Mao has always been great when she is skating as herself. She is somewhat an innocent sheltered girl without much life experience who has always been put on a pedal stall, well protected, revered and adored by her country. When she does ethereal or charming, her performance resembles those little sweet darling girls performing to their loving parents who probably never said one critical thing to them except full of love, praises and support. Materials outside these narrow realms I am not yet convinced. Until recent Jupiter indicate she can do stuff outside her comfort zone, but she need to experience it to really get it. Lack of creativity and imagination could make her artistically stagnant unless a firm hand in guiding her to explore and experience things outside her comfort space.

    If you look her technical content for LP for example, it consist of only 4 triples, 2 in combinations, No 3A or 3:3 you'd expect from a leading lady of her calibre, yet during both of her competitions, only 3 clean triples counted for both.

    @ NHK she had the 3lutz edge call, 1 combo was under rotated. No 3:3 or 3A yet attempts. She scored 125.85 then, the HIGHEST LP score this year!
    @ CoR she again were only able to completed 3 triples, this time the failed 3lutz was downgraded. She scored 118.96 then!

    http://www.isuresults.com/isujsstat/...12/sbtslfs.htm

    Yes she is suppose to have level4 for her non jump elements (though I am not expert in these, but i find then questionable when her 2nd LP performance was visibly slower and tentative with less flows as well. Akiko and Carolina Kostner for me is more worthy of level 4 as they showed more attack, pace, flow and speed as well as coverage. I often hear praise for Mao being so light on ice..but physically she is the skinniest ladies skaters right now, so no wonder she is light on ice (?!) Surely had she been more attacking and more powerful, it would be more praise worthy or convincing?

    Take her 3 triples scores from the lesser LP score, with 3lutz downgrade 118.96 (without a 3A or 3:3) relative to other ladies contenders in the field:

    - Liza (Skate Canada 117.71 with 6 triples include 3:3, 2 in combination, clean, no negative GOE.) (TEB 120.85, 6 triples include 3:3, 2 in combinations, no negative GOE)
    - Alena (CoR, 117.54 with 6 triples, 1 under rotation)
    - Akiko (NHK 119.43, 6 triples, 1 edge on flip, 1 < on combo. Skate Canada 6 triples, 1 e on the combo, 1 combo was <)

    - Carolina Kostner (Another one propped up imho) (CoC 120.26, 5 triple program, 2 in combination, -GOE in 3F, 3S Combo)

    The highest total score for the ladies so far this year are

    1. Akiko NHK 185.98 (1x 3:3 in SP)
    2. MAO NHK 184.19 (no 3:3 or 3A in either LP or SP, mistakes and -GOE)
    3. MAO COR 183.25 (no 3:3 or 3A in either LP or SP, mistakes and -GOE)
    4. Liza 182.89 (2 x 3:3 in SP and LP. Clean, no negative GOE)
    5. Carolina COC 182.14 (1 x 3:3 in SP)
    6. Alena 180.83 (2 x 3:3 in SP and LP)
    7. Alissa Czisny, USA: 179.15 (Trophee Eric Bompard. no 3:3 But at Skate Amercia with a 3:3 was attempted but failed)

    While I agree Mao is a superior skater, I don't think the judge is marking her correctly based on what she is delivering now but what she ought to be.

    My conclusion. Given the political climate with ISU that clearly seems to favour 'certain' skaters.

    Their ideal is likely to be

    1. Mao (Japan has always favoured Mao above everyone else anyway, certainly Miki and Akiko.)
    2. Carolina
    3. Akiko/Liza

    If it is up to me based on merit of what I see, appeal and performance.
    I'd consider more likely to be

    1. Liza (I understand about the criticisms, but they are things she can't control, by default of her physical size, age, ice coverage are fault of the choreography. The things she can control, she always did well. Some might say she lack in maturity but I'd say actually she is maturer than her age AND maturer than other skaters ought to be at their age.)
    2. Akiko (Under marked for years, she deserve this, and for her gumption landing her 3:3 at age 26! Let alone her gorgeous musicality and generous performer spirit! She is simply charming, although I still prefer her old programs. )
    3. Mao/Carolina/Alissa (All following their strategically safe 'complementary' route that are supported by their strong federations, their RP, instead go out there and earn their rightful place which I know they are fully capable of based on their previous work.)

    --------
    Mens... had they all gone clean, my ideal would be

    1. Daisuke
    2. Hanyu/Patrick (only because they have the technical content to support it)
    3. Jeremy

    But what is more likely

    1. Patrick.
    2. Daisuke.
    3. Jeremy / Javier
    4. Hanyu/Javier

    your opinion is one of the most biased I have heard for a long time!

    you most be seriously BLIND if you don't see her beautiful artistry, and Mao hasn't done anything that could be called a comfortable zone for so long, since bells of moscow, masquerade (3 3A in the samecompetition, all the tripples in the same program this year).... and many other programs where not something Mao herself would have chosen, and your talk about federation is TOTALLY RUBISH. because any federation that had a elite athelte with Mao ability and accomblishment would support such an athlete! and ISU has done nothing to support her, Mao has been undermarked for soo LONG time, the only thing that kept Mao at the top was her technical ability! cause she was never rewarded and I think still doesn't get what she deserves in PCS, cause her skating is one of the most beautiful I have seen, and anyone with eyes would be able to see that.

    and you seriously seem to be jealous of Mao's succes, I seriously wouldn't wonder if you are a yuna fan, cause you're jealousy and biased oppnion is soo clear even after the first sentence you wrote!

  6. #51
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    I think the podium places are open in all competition... and it will be a great weekend with fanatastic performances, I hope!

    In ladies I think Mao, Elizaveta, Caroline and Akiko will be on the podium. Mao will win if she be clean, Elizaveta will have the cleanest performances, but not the first place. After to the third place, Caroline or Akiko.

    In men championship, Patrick will win a medal, clean ou a disaster (I don´t know why, but he judges should know). Daisuke, I hope he places on the podium and Javier, he deserves.

    S/S will win if they skate clean. In my opinion they have the most adventure and different long program. V/T will win first or second place and then, I'm sure is K/S.

    In dance event Merly/Charlie ou Tessa/Scott will be in first and second and third for Natalie/Fabian with the most original free dance of the season.


    I can't wait!!!!!!

  7. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    Just further evidence of how ridiculously overscored Chan is. Probably the most overscored skater in figure skating history. I dont even get bothered by his marks anymore, I just laugh at them. No skater in history, including many with better technical abilities and artistry than Chan, have been allowed 20% the mistakes he does and still winning everything.

    Anyway for this one event I and some others just happen to be predicting enough problems for him and a strong enough skate by someone else to overcome this excessive bias from the Chan orgasm groupies (aka judges). Will it turn out that way? We will just have to wait and see.
    I don't know, pangtongfan. You're ignoring the fact that Dai at NHK also had a fall and three ur's. Those three ur's lost him points too (the equivalent of one triple jump). Two quads and one 3A gives him an edge over one URed quad and two 3As and given how close the actual scores were, I'm not entirely convinced it was dramatically unfair as the ABC groupies (Anyone But Chan) would like to believe.

    TEB's another story, though.

  8. #53
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    Ladies:
    1. Mao Asada
    2. Elizaveta Tuktamisheva
    3. Akiko Suzuki
    4. Caroline Kostner
    5. Alena Leonova
    6. Alissa Czisny

    Men:
    1. Patrick Chan
    2. Daisuke Takahashi
    3. Javier Fernandes
    4. Jeremy Abbot
    5. Yuzuru Hanyu
    6. Michal Brezina

    Pairs:
    1. Aliona Savchenko/ Robin Szolkowy
    2. Tatiana Volsozhar/ Maxim Trankov
    3. Yuko Kavaguti / Alexander Smirnov
    4. Meagan Duhamel / Eric Radford
    5. Dan Zhang / Hao Zhang
    6. Narumi Takahashi / Mervin Tran

    Ice Dance:
    1. Tessa VIirtue / Scott Moir
    2. Meryl Davis / Charlie White
    3. Nathalie Pechalat / Fabian Bourzat
    4. Kaitlyn Weaver / Andrew Poje
    5. Maia Shibutani / Alex Shibutani
    6. Ekaterina Bobrova / Dmitri Soloviev

  9. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by mary01 View Post
    and you seriously seem to be jealous of Mao's succes, I seriously wouldn't wonder if you are a yuna fan, cause you're jealousy and biased oppnion is soo clear even after the first sentence you wrote!
    I don't know why, but that made me laugh loudest of all.

  10. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bartek View Post
    Ladies competition is really exciting because all of them can win and there is no someone like Chan or Kim. Liza will score hugely in TES but I don't think she'll win. With her difficult content she gets a bit over 120. The other ladies would get over 130 with it if they went clean (maybe except Leonova who will be devoid of her hometown bonus). And I think all of them clean will EASILY beat clean Liza. There's a huge difference in PCS. But none of this ladies has been clean in the FS this year so far so if they all err Liza might win. And there's still possibility that pressure will reach Liza and she'll be the one with errors. It's so unpredictable. Not like in dance when first two places are sure.
    Well, even though I see that Tuktamysheva is lower than everyone else on PCS, I also know that when a skater gets a good reputation, he will automatically get higher scores. That is what happened in TEB. She got about 3 points higher in sp and 3 in lp. So even if her skating does not improve much by next year, she will get even higher scores when she skates next year. That is just how the system often works. This year, she doesn't have much of an advantage and it will hurt if she makes mistakes but that is because she is new to the stage.

  11. #56
    she takes the audience on her journey of emotions Layfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by draqq View Post
    If Kostner makes a stumble, she usually still fully rotates her jumps. She's got cat's feet in that way, though she is just as prone to doubling a jump (usually one) in a program. The judges usually look at transitions more than lines and, as it stands, Alissa's transitions into the jumps are long setups. Carolina can execute a 2A+3T and strong, high jumps when she lands them. That said, they're quite neck and neck.

    I see Akiko Suzuki as a dark horse outside of Japan. Her interpretation and expressiveness are her tickets, but the judges look for transitions, line, and power more than exuberance. Not that I think that's particularly fair or correct - just the way it is. I feel that Leonova is in the same boat (I actually think her SP is overmarked because she stands around so much in the footwork sequence). Both, though, have a seemingly solid 3T+3T that will serve them well compared to the other skaters (except for Tuktamisheva).
    I agree with everything you said about Caro but somehow it doesn't always translate into an automatic edge over Alissa, even when they are both relatively clean. I guess because of Alissa's spins and maybe this year her higher jump content (even though the jumps aren't executed as well as other skaters and the transitions are lacking.) Anyhow, I think both are doing what works relatively well for them for now. I really hope they both do well at the GPF final.

    I hope Akiko does well, too. I think you are right - this will be a good test for her to see how she is received outside of Japan. Of course, she also has to skate cleanly. I have a good feeling about her chances, though. The GPF is so tough because they're only six skaters. Normally, coming in 5th or 6th isn't so bad in a comp but at the GPF it probably doesn't feel very good. Pretty harsh. I just hope that all six skaters have good programs.

  12. #57
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    For Liza to get higher PCS, she needs to start using the entire ice surface. That will, of course, happen!

  13. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by mary01 View Post
    your opinion is one of the most biased I have heard for a long time!

    you most be seriously BLIND if you don't see her beautiful artistry, and Mao hasn't done anything that could be called a comfortable zone for so long, since bells of moscow, masquerade (3 3A in the samecompetition, all the tripples in the same program this year).... and many other programs where not something Mao herself would have chosen, and your talk about federation is TOTALLY RUBISH. because any federation that had a elite athelte with Mao ability and accomblishment would support such an athlete! and ISU has done nothing to support her, Mao has been undermarked for soo LONG time, the only thing that kept Mao at the top was her technical ability! cause she was never rewarded and I think still doesn't get what she deserves in PCS, cause her skating is one of the most beautiful I have seen, and anyone with eyes would be able to see that.

    and you seriously seem to be jealous of Mao's succes, I seriously wouldn't wonder if you are a yuna fan, cause you're jealousy and biased oppnion is soo clear even after the first sentence you wrote!
    Oh you are so petty.... did you read anything I wrote? Please debate the argument. Competition skating should not be based on what the skater is SUPPOSE TO ABLE TO DO or HAS done, but based on what she is doing RIGHT NOW in relation to what everyone else is doing. Your argument is more biased if you can't see the logic beyond mere petty fan wars. Otherwise why competing? Let's just give Michelle 10 times world champion and 2 Olympic Champion (actually that might not be a bad idea) without her step on ice.

    If Mao were able to put out the goods out there like she did at the Olympics, I'd be applaud her too just like at WC2011 and at the Olympics, but so far, she had it too easy in relation to others, particularly Liza who has to earn her PCS from ground up this year! They might as well give her the WC now!

    And by the way Liebestraum I gave a rave review when it first came out, because i recognized it perfectly complement her classic form and quiet personality(like the music is classic liszt itself) , almost icognito Mao. I'd argue out of all the skaters right now, that program fit Mao more than any other skater (infact I challenge you to find another skater fit the program better than Mao). Emotionally and pace it is also well within her grasp and yes comfort zone, so it was no accident she kept it for a second year.
    Last edited by os168; 11-29-2011 at 12:17 PM.

  14. #59
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    Liza has to earn her PCS from the ground up because she is new. That's how it works in skating. Every skater went through a phase like that. Personally, I'm not impressed by her artistically, though she's better than Leonova, who is overmarked on PCS.

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    I'm excited to see Patrick & Daisuke back to back. Love both their programs. I'd give the edge to Chan, but Dai's program is more interesting to me and a worthy challenge to Chan. Always love Jeremy and hope he does well

    I'm surprised how little support Allissa is getting. Judges seem to like her, she racks up points on spins, can do decent on the jumps. At GP Fra she won the LP despite mistakes and would only have to have done a little better in SP to have won the the whole thing. Carolina, who I enjoy this year, had similar mistakes in but only got 3rd in the LP. To me it says she's in the mix for top three, plus it's easy travel for her, even same time zone I believe. Given that I think Mao has the most upside and probably will pull off the win.

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