GP Final Analysis and Predictions

[gmyers]

COP doesn't care how you accumulate points. You get tons of GOE on two triple salchows and a triple loop and double axels that's just fine! But you do need great level 4 spins and high PCS to get away with that. Great speed going into a triple salchow then a three jump combo of 3T and doubles that's all just fine! Only certain of the highest scoreres in PCS can water their jumps down to 80's levels and still do well. There is no standard in technical scoring just scoring.

[Mrs. P]

But my point is Mao had 3 clean triples while Alena had 6. btw I have problem with Carolina too (but that is for another thread :D)

Akiko brought a 3:3, again Mao only had 3 clean triples there.

Mao isn't using her 2007 content, otherwise I wouldn't be complaining Her current LP content is only going for 4 triples, 2 in combination and without 3:3 or 3A.

Akiko only had four clean triples, per your definition and her base value was nearly six points later. And she only did the 3-3 in the SP where she beat Mao by EIGHT POINTS. And all this is moot because Akiko WON!

Also Mao's PCS was equal to Alena's in the SP and only three points in the LP at COR.

But my point about 2007 is that she got a 133 for a 7 jump program with two 3-3 and a 3A. She's getting 125 now for less jump content. The scores progression seem pretty logical to me and doesn't really point to this inflation you keep insisting on.

Sorry, I just don't buy it. We'll just have to agree to disagree at this point.

[burntBREAD]

But my point is Mao had 3 clean triples while Alena had 6 (1 under rotated). btw I have problem with Carolina too (but that is for another thread :D)

Akiko brought a 3:3 at her SP along with her 6 triples for the LP (1 e on flip, 1 < on combo), again Mao only had 3 clean triples there at her LP.

Mao isn't using her 2007 content, otherwise I wouldn't be complaining Her current LP content is only going for 4 triples, 2 in combination and without 3:3 or 3A and she scored the highest LP of the season, even with negative GOEs.

Mao's going for 6 triples. A lutz, two flips, a loop, a salchow, and a toe.

[Becki]

My predictions:

*Edit* Changed my predictions with Mao withdrawing.

Men
1. Daisuke Takahashi
2. Patrick Chan
3. Yuzuru Hanyu
4. Javier Fernandez
5. Jeremy Abbott
6. Michal Brezina

Ladies
1. Akiko Suzuki
2. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
3. Carolina Kostner
4. Alissa Czinsy
5. Alena Leonova

[Mathman]

Welcome to Golden Skate, Becki. Thanks for posting.

[os168]

Mao's going for 6 triples. A lutz, two flips, a loop, a salchow, and a toe.

Ahh thanks for this, it would make much more sense. But failing 3 triples with negative GOEs and still able to score the highest LP score this year, what if she did complete them? What will her score be? Sounds bizarre to me without the 3:3 or 3A. It would have beat her previous 2007 record 133 even with the lesser difficult jumps content?

[Mrs. P]

Ahh thanks for this, it would make much more sense. But failing 3 triples with negative GOEs and still able to score the highest LP score this year, what if she did complete them? What will her score be? Sounds bizarre to me without the 3:3 or 3A. It would have beat her previous 2007 record 133 even with the lesser difficult jumps content?

The same reason Alissa has the highest LP score within the U.S. ladies: Mao has some of the best spins and spirals in the business and if you get some great GOE on them, they can easily make for negative GOE elsewhere.

She got negative -2.6 in GOE total at NHK for her jumps. But she got PLUS 4.66 in GOE for her spins and spirals, plus plus GOE on her other jumps, resulting in a net +GOE of 4.65, which by the way is hardly a crazy amount to give in +GOE. It's not like they're giving her +2 and +3 for every element.

And regarding your second question, she would have received 121.96 at COR amd 128.37 at NHK, still quite far from her PB.

[Wildstorm]

Daisuke
Patrick
Javier

Realy, it could be anyone's win, the men are outstanding and will keep me on the edge of my seat. But I am a huge Daisuke fan and I hope he wins XD

[evangeline]

Ahh thanks for this, it would make much more sense. But failing 3 triples with negative GOEs and still able to score the highest LP score this year, what if she did complete them? What will her score be? Sounds bizarre to me without the 3:3 or 3A. It would have beat her previous 2007 record 133 even with the lesser difficult jumps content?

Sorry for the capslock, but YOU CAN'T COMPARE SCORES FROM DIFFERENT YEARS LIKE THAT, ESPECIALLY FROM FOUR YEARS AGO. All the rule changes, changes in base value of different elements, elimination of things like levelled spiral sequences, etc....that makes comparisons like yours practically irrelevant.

And maybe you'll understand why Mao is able to score the highest LP score this year with her less than stellar jump content if you looked at the rest of the ladies field instead of focussing on Mao. If Yu-Na was around, she will definitely beat out Mao's highest LP score this year. The problem is, none of the other ladies are producing like that. Skaters with enough PCS--e.g. Carolina Kostner--have jump content that is even less technically demanding than Mao. Whereas skaters with more tech content, like Liza Tuktamisheva and Alena Leonova, are seriously lacking when it comes to PCS (Liza's ice coverage, Alena's less than stellar SS, CH, etc).

And someone like Akiko, who is more balanced of a skater, would have easily beat Mao's score at NHK if she didn't commit what are arguably the most costly things one can do under CoP scoring--pop 2 of her jumps in her program, thereby netting almost zero points on them.

[Mrs. P]

Sorry for the capslock, but YOU CAN'T COMPARE SCORES FROM DIFFERENT YEARS LIKE THAT, ESPECIALLY FROM FOUR YEARS AGO. All the rule changes, changes in base value of different elements, elimination of things like spiral sequences, etc....that makes comparisons like yours practically irrelevant.

And maybe you'll understand why Mao is able to score the highest LP score this year with her less than stellar jump content if you, you know, looked at the rest of the ladies field instead of focussing on Mao. If Yu-Na was around, she will definitely beat out Mao's highest LP score this year. The problem is, none of the other ladies are producing like that. Skaters with enough PCS--e.g. Carolina Kostner--have jump content that is even less technically demanding than Mao. Whereas skaters with more tech content, like Liza Tuktamisheva and Alena Leonova, are seriously lacking when it comes to PCS (Liza's ice coverage, Alena's less than stellar SS, CH, etc).

And someone like Akiko, who is more balanced of a skater, would have easily beat Mao's score at NHK if she didn't commit what are arguably the most costly things one can do under CoP scoring--pop 2 of her jumps in her program, thereby netting almost zero points on them.

To be fair, I was the one who bought up the 133 PB first....all I was trying to explain is that Mao has gotten much higher scores with much more content, therefore her scores now make sense.

[Becki]

Thanks ^_^ I have faith Yuzuru will have a breakthrough and take bronze!! I mean, he has beaten the other 4 men in the same competition at CoR lol, i believe he can do it again. I really hope Daisuke can add GPF Gold Medalist to his list of accomplishments :P

[miki88]

May be I don't consider artistry like everyone else. To some maybe as long as long as she fulfill their version of the idealised beautiful skater, it would qualify her as artistic. For me that is just projection what you feel is artistic, but nothing to do with true artistry itself which should be abstract, free, lucid and subjective to what the performer are trying to express with originality, meanings and deliberated thoughts with clarity.

I am sorry but aren't you contradicting yourself? You're saying that artistry should be abstract and yet your basing your judgments on what is essentially your own opinions on what artistry is supposed to be. It's just like you said, she is artistic to some because she fulfills their aesthetic tastes. Just because a skater doesn't fulfill your criteria for artistry doesn't mean there's anything wrong with their form of expression.

[wallylutz]

What's really exciting about this GPF is that no one can safely predict a winner for any of the 4 disciplines. Even some of the medalists could be quite surprising as well. In Ice Dance, there is a an open battle for the Bronze medal but I don't know who is the favorite because team B/S who beat S/S by almost 20 points just lost to W/P who then was beaten by S/S by fractions. The Singles are also wide open, while Chan has not yet been beaten since winning this event last year, he has yet found his consistency this year or the 4S that he intends to add to his repertoire. The ladies are all over the map. May the best wins.

[Mrs. P]

What's really exciting about this GPF is that no one can safely predict a winner for any of the 4 disciplines. Even some of the medalists could be quite surprising as well. In Ice Dance, there is a an open battle for the Bronze medal but I don't know who is the favorite because team B/S who beat S/S by almost 20 points just lost to W/P who then was beaten by S/S by fractions. The Singles are also wide open, while Chan has not yet been beaten since winning this event last year, he has yet found his consistency this year or the 4S that he intends to add to his repertoire. The ladies are all over the map. May the best wins.

To be honest, I think P/B have a slight edge for the bronze. But based on scores -- yes yes you can't compare across competitions -- not by much.

But if P/B score as expected and get third, the battle may be for 4th place instead.

[Canadasfan]

And maybe you'll understand why Mao is able to score the highest LP score this year with her less than stellar jump content if you looked at the rest of the ladies field instead of focussing on Mao. If Yu-Na was around, she will definitely beat out Mao's highest LP score this year. The problem is, none of the other ladies are producing like that. Skaters with enough PCS--e.g. Carolina Kostner--have jump content that is even less technically demanding than Mao. Whereas skaters with more tech content, like Liza Tuktamisheva and Alena Leonova, are seriously lacking when it comes to PCS (Liza's ice coverage, Alena's less than stellar SS, CH, etc).

I just wanted to second this It's disappointing to see some of the ladies doing so well with limited jump content, but no one else is doing better. I think the absence of Yuna, Joannie, and Miki has left a big gap that nobody has filled yet. The skaters who are left can still do well even when not at their best. I expect Mao, at least, to be much better by 4C's and Worlds.

Here's my predictions for the GPF:

Ladies

1. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
2. Akiko Suzuki
3. Mao Asada
4. Carolina Kostner
5. Alena Leonova
6. Alissa Czinsy

Tukts has had the best technical content and the best consistency so far. Akiko Suzuki beat Mao at NHK and was 2nd only to Tukts at SC, so I put her 2nd. I'm guessing that either Kostner or Czinsy will have enough mistakes to put Leonova in 5th.

I also think the placements will be messy, and Tukts could win without winning either segment.

Men

1. Daisuke Takahashi
2. Patrick Chan
3. Javier Fernandez
4. Yuzuru Hanyu
5. Michal Brezina
6. Jeremy Abbott

I think Patrick needs more time to perfect his programs this year. This is assuming that Daisuke's performance at NHK wasn't a one-off, and he can repeat it in the final. Loving his LP! Fernandez is getting better and better - the top 3 could be in any order.

Pairs

1. Savchenko/Szolkowy
2. Volosozhar/Trankov
3. Kawaguti/Smirnov
4. Duhamel/Radford
5. Zhang/Zhang
6. Takahashi/Tran

Edit: Remembered that Duhamel/Radford were excited to be competing so close to where they train; boosted them one place, they should feel comfortable and compete well.

Dance

1. Davis/White
2. Virtue/Moir
3. Pechalat /Bourzat
4. Weaver/Poje
5. Bobrova/Soliev
6. Shibutani & Shibutani

Like Patrick, I think V/M need some more time to perfect their FD. I'm looking forward to seeing it at Nationals!