GP Final Analysis and Predictions

[fairly4]

my take is this -- because grand prix final is in canada. I think the canadians skaters have the edge

dance
1-2 would be davis/white or virture and moir with 1st going to virture /moir for it being in canada./being ogm medalist.

3rd places is a fight between the rest of them.
i can see it going to weaver/poje because of canadian. the cynic in me.
however if bobrova/soloviev, shibutanis, pechalat/bourzat can all take 3rd.

men
1) patrick chan
2/3 daisuke takashi or javier fernandez
with jeremy abbot, michal brezina, yuzuru hanyu rounding it out.
but anyone can take the medals.
how the men skate will determine the podumium.

pairs
1-3 -savenchko/szolokowy, voloshar/trankov, kavaguti/smirnoff rounding out the medals.

women
1) mao asada
2) alissa czisny
3) caroline kostner,
why the pcs scores if they skate clean and to the i think they will medal. if the top 3 don't mess up their short program
4)elizaveta
5) akiko
6) alena
that can go in any order due to how the women skate.
but i think if the top 3 keep their technical content the pcs would be enough to stay in the podium
otherwise i can see elizaveta winning it due to the elder mistakes. after all elizaveta won the short in both sc and teb, and got overtaken in free due to pc scores, but elizaveta won due to people beating her by enough points in free.
after all in sc akik

[NorthernDancers]

my take is this -- because grand prix final is in canada. I think the canadians skaters have the edge

dance
1-2 would be davis/white or virture and moir with 1st going to virture /moir for it being in canada./being ogm medalist.

3rd places is a fight between the rest of them.
i can see it going to weaver/poje because of canadian. the cynic in me.however if bobrova/soloviev, shibutanis, pechalat/bourzat can all take 3rd.

Hmmmm... So what you are saying is that there is no possible way that Weaver/Poje can earn a bronze medal with 2 great skates? If they win bronze, it's only because they are Canadian? And this is decided before the competition starts? Have we not just seen a whole lot of space devoted to PCS and CoP explanations?

[MK's Winter]

I really think the Ladies Competition could be anyones game, Mao, Alissa, Carolina, Akiko, and Liza have had a greatvseason so far. Liza is exciting to watch,as great Tech Skill and well developing artistry. Mao is getting her jumps back and her long program is beautiful to watch. I am so happy for what Alyssa has accomplished these last 2 seasons she justs needs to let herself go and she could be a real spoiler. Carolina has beautiful and the judges seem to embrace her watered down tech content and it has worked for her thus far. I have enjoyed Akikos programsand think she looks her best yhis season. Good Luck to All of the Ladies!

[chapis]

os168, it is better don´t try understand the system, believe me you won´t get it. I was so frustrated when yuna´s scores raise up and up every competition although she just did´t the same, then yes this sport is very manipulable, but It´s beautiful. Mao is better than before in other aspects of her skating, other her jumps, is true and I happy that she is in the final.

[jettasian]

Hmmmm... So what you are saying is that there is no possible way that Weaver/Poje can earn a bronze medal with 2 great skates? If they win bronze, it's only because they are Canadian? And this is decided before the competition starts? Have we not just seen a whole lot of space devoted to PCS and CoP explanations?

It makes me sick that people think the Canadians will win because the event is in Canada. Very insulting to the Canadian skaters that they can only win because they are Canadian.

[evangeline]

I think you misunderstood me. I am trying to see the argument that the besting her non jump element compensated for her failed 3 triple jumps is good enough compensation for her getting the high PCS she has been getting. That is why I wonder if judge is judged on what she ought to getting versus how a faulty performance should deserve. Otherwise those who are best known for their non jumping elements like spins and foot work should have scored higher given they were at least successful in completing more jumps.

....I really have no idea what you're trying to say here.

I have replayed back on the level 4 footwork sequences from both competitions, and counted the turns, the pace the details, they are very similar, no extra turns or movements, so I am still wondering what is the difference. I have already accepted PCS is the major reason of her high scoring, but I also noted some discrepancy in her TES score like certain level 4s when the movements and execution are the same on both competitions.

I am not a tech specialist, and frankly, I neither have the time nor inclination to re-watch, compare and write out all the differences on Mao's step sequences across both competitions. Also, you should keep in mind that it is not only the NUMBER of turns that matter here, but also their EXECUTION/PRECISION. I think you should read mskater93's excellent post on this matter:

Step sequence leveling is based on checking off criteria to get the features to get to the specific level. The likely difference between NHK and CoR (and the cause of your perception that it was tentative) was clarity in the variety of turns. To get a level 4, you need complex variety of turns (basically all types in both CW and CCW directions: three, bracket, twizzle, loop, counter, rocker) versus variety (at least 5 different types in both direction of turns for L3) versus simple variety (4). There was probably 1 or 2 turns at NHK that were, in the opinion of the tech panel, indeterminant which dropped her level to 3. She probably was more precise in her turns at CoR. I would need to look at the step sequence at each competition back to back to give you the exact cause of the improvement in level. I know some skaters at Regionals and Sectionals who got their step sequences called L1 because some turns were imprecise which dropped them below 4 different types of turns (basically counters and rockers were more 3 turns than what they were intended which dropped the variety).

And to be honest, I have no idea why you're making such a big deal about this matter. It's not like Mao is the only skater to receive different level calls across different competitions. Off the top of my head: Daisuke received a level 3 on his SP steps at Skate Canada, but a level 4 at NHK. Alissa Czisny received a level 3 in her LP steps at Skate America, but a level 2 at TEB. Alena Leonova received a level 3 on her SP steps at NHK, but a level 4 at Cup of Russia. And I'm sure there are many more examples that I've forgotten in my mind. Levels are not necessarily set in stone all season--part of it depends on the execution of the element itself, and/or the strictness of the tech caller. Sometimes a skater misses a rotation in a spin, or fudges a turn or two in the step sequence. It may not be quite noticeable to the naked eye as us fans who watch the pixellated videos on Youtube, but I'm pretty sure the trained tech callers are watching the elements on a much higher quality video feed. Or maybe, a tech caller is more willing to give the benefit of the doubt to the skaters in a particular competition. What it is not, however, is proof that there is some sort of conspiracy involving a national federation and the ISU favoring a certain skater above all others.

On paper Mao does have superior technical ability, but it was not fully realized at her 2 competitions performances even taking the easier jump layout and failing 50% of her triple jumps.

You completely missed the point in my last post. I know Mao botched her jumps, but what I was trying to get at is that technical ability is not just limited to jumps only. Mao has--and demonstrated--better steps, spins, spirals and skating skills than Alena. Shouldn't these factors matter as well? And to be honest, a lot of it didn't matter anyway! Alena still beat Mao quite soundly on TES because Mao failed 50% of her triple jumps. I'm not sure why you're complaining here.

IMO, Alena actually exceeded her capability and sold out the heck out of the craptastic choreography and take it beyond a pantomime. I do however think she was over marked, but given it is Cup of Russia why is it a surprise? Actually that shows the advantage of both getting NHK and COR, so they have a pacemaker that justify the bench marking and relative marking even if both are overmarked.

Well, I disagree. You speak as if Alena had the skate of her life in her LP, skating lights-out throughout the whole thing. Did you watch the competition? Alena had several major mistakes as well, including a disruptive fall on her 2A. Moreover, although I agree that Alena sold the heck out of her crap choreography in the SP, I completely disagree regarding her LP. For the majority of Alena's LP, she was just skating up and down the rink with a solemn look on her face, not really coming alive or demonstrating any sort of superior expression until arguably the ending step sequence. This is hardly taking her choreography beyond a pantomime. I actually think Mao had the better expression and interpretation in the LP than Alena--despite those mistakes on her jumps, Mao maintained a high performance level through the entire program, though I cannot quite say the same for Alena, whose performance felt a bit flat to me until the last step sequence.

[Olympia]

I have no expertise at all, but I've just seen Davis/White's Die Fledermaus program, and it's just beyond belief. If ice dancing is supposed to be dancelike this time around, they have certainly more than fulfilled the expectations. And so beautifully! That program is stupendous. I haven't yet seen Virtue and Moir, though I'm sure they're also excellent. But my heart belongs to Fledermaus.

As for the ladies, I just hope and pray that Mao is at her best. Then no one can touch her. And I'm also rooting for Alissa.

[skateluvr]

Oooooh... while I enjoy Alissa Czisny's variant of the pretty-pretty, she cannot be compared to Mao Asada! Not the same skater who gave us the Nocturne SP, the Por Una Cabeza EX, the Jupiter EX...! There is versatility behind that sweet, innocent smile.

I sort of agree with what Os is getting at, in the sense that while the Liebestraume LP is beautiful, it is something of the same-ol', same-ol' Mao and I would be ecstatic if she had a program that was like her Jupiter EX: something more savoury, more complex than the saccharin thing we've seen from her before. But still, I know that one day when the girl retires, I am going to miss her and I suspect that there will not be a skater who can replace her for a long, long time. She is one of the skaters who is saving this Ladies' season from being totally in the pitzzzzz.

So well said Prettykeys regarding how much more, and how different Mao is than Alissa. Gentle Alissa has fought nerves her whole career that Mao never had. I agree there is nothing in Alissa's body of work to compare with Nocturne, for example. Mao is a once in a 50 years kind of talent. Alissa may find herself an SOI skater for several seasons and bloom like Sato or Yama while keeping her difficult elements to some extent. We'll see. I love and admire Alissa but Mao is in another category of athlete and artist.

[verte76]

I hope Alissa wins the ladies title but the Russian girl, who's name escapes me is very good.

[os168]

And to be honest, I have no idea why you're making such a big deal about this matter. It's not like Mao is the only skater to receive different level calls across different competitions. Off the top of my head: Daisuke received a level 3 on his SP steps at Skate Canada, but a level 4 at NHK. Alissa Czisny received a level 3 in her LP steps at Skate America, but a level 2 at TEB. Alena Leonova received a level 3 on her SP steps at NHK, but a level 4 at Cup of Russia.

See but that's the problem. All those examples you have given me, when the skaters skate at home (or favoured ground), they get raised a level. Coincidence? While I am clearly no expert, but when I see something don't fit, why shouldn't I ask these sort of questions?

While you argument is based on the fact you are convinced the rules are accurately applied and the judgment is 100% correct, my argument is actually based on the fact because they are human judgement, and clearly certain competition does favour certain skaters and they show up on the score, so the 'hows' should be scrutinized when something obviously don't add up.

Human judgement are subject to influencing and impressions, and the do bring disrepute to the sport (although nobody likes to talk about it), the parties involved just got better hide it with stats. From every thing I can see, even the judging slanted by 0.2 or 0.3 points here and there made a big difference when you add everything up. I remember Lepisto was severely criticized for winning the world champion bronze 2010 with only 3 triples. I am surprised Mao is getting a free pass this round having the highest LP score just 3 triples (and not even a 3lutz which Laura actually had as well as a 3T+3T which Mao does not have) and yet there was no complaints, especially others are putting 6 (including 3:3s) and going clean and getting no where near.

Although we will see at GPF if this standard of judging still applies, because I'd be fairly annoyed if that is standard it takes to win these days as long as you appear 'beautiful' with in your 'comfort zone' along with a bunch of mistakes apparently won't hurt you because of your strong PCS.

[ImaginaryPogue]

Bobrova/Soloviev and Riazanova/Tkachenko were hammered on levels at home vs in China/Canada. B/S lost six points over the two dances on level calling; R/T lost two. W/P lost 2.5 points in Canada they didn't lose in Russia.

It's entirely possible to have a better skate at home than away (see P/B at TEB vs SC, Chan at SC vs TEB) as well.

[hurrah]

See but that's the problem. All those examples you have given me, when the skaters skate at home (or favoured ground), they get raised a level. Coincidence? While I am clearly no expert, but when I see something don't fit, why shouldn't I ask these sort of questions?

Mao got level 3 on her lp step sequence at NHK and level 4 in Russia. I believe NHK is her home ground.

[evangeline]

See but that's the problem. All those examples you have given me, when the skaters skate at home (or favoured ground), they get raised a level. Coincidence? While I am clearly no expert, but when I see something don't fit, why shouldn't I ask these sort of questions?

I think you should read this link very carefully.

The three examples I chose were the first ones off the top of my head this season, which coincidentally happened to support the appearance of such a home advantage. However, if you cast the net of examples wider (as ImaginaryPogue and hurrah have both pointed out) there are much more examples demonstrating otherwise. Carolina Kostner, for instance, received 2 level one spins in her LP at Skate America, while her spins in China were all level 4s. I don't think China is exactly Carolina's home turf, or is even on her home continent. So yes, coincidence.

And of course you have the right to ask these sort of questions. But be prepared to receive answers that may be contrary to what you first assumed (that is how I learned about CoP, anyways).

While you argument is based on the fact you are convinced the rules are accurately applied and the judgment is 100% correct, my argument is actually based on the fact because they are human judgement, and clearly certain competition does favour certain skaters and they show up on the score, so the 'hows' should be scrutinized when something obviously don't add up.

Human judgement are subject to influencing and impressions, and the do bring disrepute to the sport (although nobody likes to talk about it), the parties involved just got better hide it with stats. From every thing I can see, even the judging slanted by 0.2 or 0.3 points here and there made a big difference when you add everything up. I remember Lepisto was severely criticized for winning the world champion bronze 2010 with only 3 triples. I am surprised Mao is getting a free pass this round having the highest LP score just 3 triples (and not even a 3lutz which Laura actually had as well as a 3T+3T which Mao does not have) and yet there was no complaints, especially others are putting 6 (including 3:3s) and going clean and getting no where near.

Although we will see at GPF if this standard of judging still applies, because I'd be fairly annoyed if that is standard it takes to win these days as long as you appear 'beautiful' with in your 'comfort zone' along with a bunch of mistakes apparently won't hurt you because of your strong PCS.

You speak as if Mao won a world championship or a world medal with her measly 3-triple program....but if you look at the season's best list, Mao's LP at Cup of Russia would probably not have made the podium at TEB (Mao's CoR LP score was lower than Liza's, Alissa's and Carolina's LPs at that event), and would have been behind Carolina at CoC, as well as both of Akiko's LPs at Skate Canada and NHK. What you seem to have forgotten was that CoR was a poorly-skated event, and it did not have the most top-tier skaters in the field (case in point: a relative nobody like Sofia Biryukova was able to place 4th, and Sofia did not skate cleanly either). Mao's bad LP was best of a bad lot, and would have easily have lost or been even off the podium in another event.

And you need to check your facts. The highest LP score this season was the score Mao received at NHK, where she landed 5 triples (although one was a flutz) and a 3F with a <. Mao's 3-triple program at CoR was only the eighth-highest score this season.

And no, I don't think the judging is always 100% correct and the rules always correctly applied. But the assigning of levels is quite technical, and from what I can tell, it usually seems pretty accurate. And no offense--you really haven't convinced me that certain competitions do favour certain skaters at all, especially when you complain about overscoring but clearly didn't know how levels were assigned....which is a pretty basic aspect of CoP scoring.

[jcoates]

I've been away from this discussion for a while, but in case no one has brought it up, it's been noted in numerous psychology studies that so called home field advantage plays little to no measurable role in performance among athletes. While crowd participation may boost performance in some cases, it can also decrease performance just as often. Russian ice dance teams underperformed at worlds last year. Meanwhile Ando and Kozuka rose to the occasion when the loss of an expected home ice advantage due to the earthquake and tsunami might have predicted otherwise. Preparation, training, fitness, mental toughness and even start order/time of day play a much bigger role in performance than home ice advantage. Also judges, for all the flack they are given, are much better at withstanding crowd sentiment than often acknowledged.

[Joesitz]

Is it a Sport and treated like a sport? or is it an audition for Stars on Ice?

One part of the judging system is quantfyable as it is in other sports; the other part is based on the majority of opinions as it is in choosing another type of contest such as Ms World.

The opinions of yours, imo, are equal to the judges.