GP Final Analysis and Predictions

[doctor2014]

Now I found the online translation is very convenient but still often very misleading.
I'll give you the rough traslation.

...

Thank you so much for your translation

LADIES
1. The first step to the RBB’s plans to dominate the world scene by Sochi is underway. I’m not sure what other people’s expectations were. I generally thought that Adelina, as the older, more successful skater last season, was the one people assumed would dominate. But it turned out that the steadier skates of Tuktamisheva was the one to do so (and yes, I’ve learned to spell her name. We’ll need to know how) – which is interesting when you recall she was rather inconsistent on the junior circuit last year (especially in the short program). So, of course, all the early heat goes to Tuktamisheva. It’s worth recalling, though, that the opening salvo from the ladies narrative of the last quad was not with Kim or Asada winning (back to back junior champions) but Miki Ando winning in Tokyo. So just because she’s the early winner here doesn’t necessarily translate to later victories. I have to admit, I’d almost like to see Russian Nationals marked with international judges just to compare the level of skating to Worlds/Euros/4CC. The event will be fascinating.

I’ve seen both Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva skating live, and I think Tuktamysheva’s performance, though still juniorish, had more spark than Sotnikova. But I usually like skaters with good skating skills, and Sotnikova’s SS are much better than Tuktamysheva. I do hope Tuktamysheva can work on her SS and does not become another Gachinski.

I also have this wild feeling that Lipnitskaia may have a better chance than both Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva in Sochi. Could she become another Lipinski?

[wonderlen3000]

Ladies: hard to predict as all are a mess, but i give the edge to Tuk as she has yet to make more than one major mistakes..
Gold: Queen Tuk
Silver: Mao
Bronze: Suzuki
4th Kostner
5th Cizney
6th Leonova

Men
Gold: PChan, he can falls 6 times and still win
Silver: Takahashi, prob will fall on his quad but the rest of his jumps and PCS will keep him on the podium
Bronze: Fernandez, if he skated clean, expect PCS will go up and he will be podium contender at world and fav for European title..
4th Abbott
5th Hanyu (rumor of injury?? and his stagma is still a problem... ala Yuna in 2007 season)
6th Berzina (is he injure again??)

[Bluebonnet]

If there were any result that this LP music has calmed down Abbott's nerve, I didn't see it at least so far. I expect him to skate well at Nationals but have big doubt on this weekend.

I think Hanyu and Brezina's problems were more of physical than mental.

I expect Fernandez to do well since he is still an underdog here. Neither people nor himself really expect him to beat Chan or Takahashi. But his SC's silver medal result was only 3.41 lower than Chan's. His COR's silver medal result was only 0.03 lower than gold medalist Hanyu. It could have gone either way. He beat Takahashi at SC by a mile. Takahashi's win at NHK which have been regarded by so many as peak performances was only 9.42 higher than Fernandez's SC result. Can Fernandez continue to perform at this rate this time? I don't know but it's very possible. After all, he holds the highest BV of all GPFers - an eye-dropping 82.53! He has nothing to lose but everything to gain. Looks like Oser has instilled something remarkable into him both in his mind and in his body.

People have a lot of hopes and anticipations for Chan vs. Takahashi showdown. Will Chan skate at least like he was at last year's GPF? Will Takahashi repeat this year's NHK magic? That's something I'm biting my nails and reluctant to predict. I'll leave it here and not to jinx any. I realized that I do have remarkable ability to jinx my favorites.

[museksk8r]

Abbott, . . . ,he should have been way ahead of other competitors instead of winning by default in one event and hanging on to a third place in another.

I'm not sure how you figure Jeremy "won by default" in China. He skated on the same ice as all the other competitors and was judged by the same technical panel and judges. The only skater scheduled to be there that had to withdraw due to injury was Brian Joubert. It's not Abbott's fault that his competitors made numerous mistakes and lacked his strength in the program component scores and that he did just enough to produce a narrow win.

As far as advantages vs. disadvantages going into the GPF, it would seem obvious that the skaters who just recently competed in Russia are at more of a disadvantage than the other competitors. Skaters normally require 1 week after a competition to come down and recover from fatigue and jet lag and usually restart serious training in the following week. The Cup of Russia skaters have not been allowed the same amount of training as the other finalists because of this and I wouldn't be surprised to see them be very tired in Quebec.

[SkateFiguring]

I'm not sure how you figure Jeremy "won by default" in China. He skated on the same ice as all the other competitors and was judged by the same technical panel and judges. The only skater scheduled to be there that had to withdraw due to injury was Brian Joubert. It's not Abbott's fault that his competitors made numerous mistakes and lacked his strength in the program component scores and that he did just enough to produce a narrow win.

A win is a win. Of course it's not Abbott's fault but his luck that others faltered, which was what I meant by default, as opposed to a decisive win regardless of others' performances.

As far as advantages vs. disadvantages going into the GPF, it would seem obvious that the skaters who just recently competed in Russia are at more of a disadvantage than the other competitors. Skaters normally require 1 week after a competition to come down and recover from fatigue and jet lag and usually restart serious training in the following week. The Cup of Russia skaters have not been allowed the same amount of training as the other finalists because of this and I wouldn't be surprised to see them be very tired in Quebec.

That's why there is a two week break between the last GP and the Final. Most competitors choose to have two weeks between their GP events unless the extra competition is in the same continent as the previous one.

What I wish ISU would do to even the field is to spread the GPF, 4CC, and Worlds in different continents in the same year. Last years they were all in Asia, with Worlds later changed to Moscow, so the N Americans had to travel the most, and this year both GPF and 4CC are in N America, at the disadvantage of the Asians.

[jettasian]

Men
Gold: PChan, he can falls 6 times and still win

One of the reaons I'm looking forward to National is to read some prediction that by that time, Chan's accumulative falls will be 8, and by World, will be 10, and he will still win.

[DianaSelene]

One of the reaons I'm looking forward to National is to read some prediction that by that time, Chan's accumulative falls will be 8, and by World, will be 10, and he will still win.

I am sure you will soon hear that.

[colleen o'neill]

[russell30]

Men's

1) Javi
2) Dai
3) Patrick

Pairs

1) K/S
2) V/T
3) S/S

Dance

1) D/W
2) V/M
3) W/P

Ladies

1) Mao
2) Liza
3) Akiko

[ImaginaryPogue]

DANCE

1. Davis/White vs Virtue/Moir. Enough pixels have been dedicated to this subject

2. After the Canton quartet, I really have no clue. The announcement of the SD theme/dance really seemed to hurt the Shibutanis (because of their relative youth and familial relationship), but we were quickly told that the Rhumba itself isn’t necessarily sexy and Latin doesn’t have to be. But it does seem to have hurt them anyway. In fairness, I think their NHK dance was impacted by the focused approach – nail the levels, clean elements, etc – so they really didn’t let loose at all (I actually enjoyed this dance a fair bit at Finlandia). I think the feeling that the Canton quartet was really a sextet, at the very least, got challenged this year (if that was truly a feeling and not mere panicky propaganda). Personally, I’ll echo what I said before: that fluke medalists tend not to repeat themselves (and by fluke, read that as races made very close by a massive error of the losing team) and that the field has upped itself in a fairly big way.

3. Meanwhile, the story in Russia got a LOT more confusing than I anticipated. I wasn’t entirely confident, heading into this season, that Bobrova/Soloviev were the true number ones. The instant meddling into Ilynikh/Katsalpov’s training struck me as proprietary from the Russian federation, at the very least. But B/S came out and earned two massive scores at CoC and at placed themselves not only as the clear number ones from Russia, but at the forefront of the European vanguard as well. Meanwhile, not one but TWO junior teams haves posted scores that beat both Rizanova/Tkachenko and Ilynikh/Katsalpov’s best score of the season (Sinitsina/Zhiganshin, Stepanova/Bukin). Tarasova has again criticized I/K’s work ethic and conditioning. Someone else mentioned it was almost as if the team was preparing to face the World of 90’s ice dance, where the non-Russian teams were often considerably weaker than their Russian competitors and where a marked difference in skating quality between the partners was more accepted. Nowadays, stuff like that leads to lower levels, GOEs and PCS. This story will play out more fully at Russian Nationals and Europeans.

4. Have Pechalat/Bourzat improved or have I just been slow on the uptake? Because, while everyone else is mocking the “Walk like an Egyptian” hands, I’m grooving on this FD. Yeah, they had lack-of-training issues at TEB, but healthy and fully trained this could be an incredible program.

5. Concurrently, Weaver/Poje have undeniably improved. When the ISU announced the SD pattern, I was actually worried for this team. While an incredibly attractive team, I’ve felt that Andrew in particular seemed to waver on the confidence front. That’s not true anymore. I love the down-and-dirty vibe he and Weaver project in their SD and the passion in their FD is jawdropping. I truly believe they could make a run at third place here and that would be phenomenal.