GP Final Analysis and Predictions | Page 5 | Golden Skate

GP Final Analysis and Predictions

OS

Sedated by Modonium
Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 23, 2010
Mao's going for 6 triples. A lutz, two flips, a loop, a salchow, and a toe.

Ahh thanks for this, it would make much more sense. But failing 3 triples with negative GOEs and still able to score the highest LP score this year, what if she did complete them? What will her score be? Sounds bizarre to me without the 3:3 or 3A. It would have beat her previous 2007 record 133 even with the lesser difficult jumps content?
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
Ahh thanks for this, it would make much more sense. But failing 3 triples with negative GOEs and still able to score the highest LP score this year, what if she did complete them? What will her score be? Sounds bizarre to me without the 3:3 or 3A. It would have beat her previous 2007 record 133 even with the lesser difficult jumps content?

The same reason Alissa has the highest LP score within the U.S. ladies: Mao has some of the best spins and spirals in the business and if you get some great GOE on them, they can easily make for negative GOE elsewhere.

She got negative -2.6 in GOE total at NHK for her jumps. But she got PLUS 4.66 in GOE for her spins and spirals, plus plus GOE on her other jumps, resulting in a net +GOE of 4.65, which by the way is hardly a crazy amount to give in +GOE. It's not like they're giving her +2 and +3 for every element.

And regarding your second question, she would have received 121.96 at COR amd 128.37 at NHK, still quite far from her PB.
 
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Wildstorm

Rinkside
Joined
Nov 29, 2011
Daisuke
Patrick
Javier

Realy, it could be anyone's win, the men are outstanding and will keep me on the edge of my seat. But I am a huge Daisuke fan and I hope he wins XD
 

evangeline

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 7, 2007
Ahh thanks for this, it would make much more sense. But failing 3 triples with negative GOEs and still able to score the highest LP score this year, what if she did complete them? What will her score be? Sounds bizarre to me without the 3:3 or 3A. It would have beat her previous 2007 record 133 even with the lesser difficult jumps content?

Sorry for the capslock, but YOU CAN'T COMPARE SCORES FROM DIFFERENT YEARS LIKE THAT, ESPECIALLY FROM FOUR YEARS AGO. All the rule changes, changes in base value of different elements, elimination of things like levelled spiral sequences, etc....that makes comparisons like yours practically irrelevant.

And maybe you'll understand why Mao is able to score the highest LP score this year with her less than stellar jump content if you looked at the rest of the ladies field instead of focussing on Mao. If Yu-Na was around, she will definitely beat out Mao's highest LP score this year. The problem is, none of the other ladies are producing like that. Skaters with enough PCS--e.g. Carolina Kostner--have jump content that is even less technically demanding than Mao. Whereas skaters with more tech content, like Liza Tuktamisheva and Alena Leonova, are seriously lacking when it comes to PCS (Liza's ice coverage, Alena's less than stellar SS, CH, etc).

And someone like Akiko, who is more balanced of a skater, would have easily beat Mao's score at NHK if she didn't commit what are arguably the most costly things one can do under CoP scoring--pop 2 of her jumps in her program, thereby netting almost zero points on them.
 
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Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
Sorry for the capslock, but YOU CAN'T COMPARE SCORES FROM DIFFERENT YEARS LIKE THAT, ESPECIALLY FROM FOUR YEARS AGO. All the rule changes, changes in base value of different elements, elimination of things like spiral sequences, etc....that makes comparisons like yours practically irrelevant.

And maybe you'll understand why Mao is able to score the highest LP score this year with her less than stellar jump content if you, you know, looked at the rest of the ladies field instead of focussing on Mao. If Yu-Na was around, she will definitely beat out Mao's highest LP score this year. The problem is, none of the other ladies are producing like that. Skaters with enough PCS--e.g. Carolina Kostner--have jump content that is even less technically demanding than Mao. Whereas skaters with more tech content, like Liza Tuktamisheva and Alena Leonova, are seriously lacking when it comes to PCS (Liza's ice coverage, Alena's less than stellar SS, CH, etc).

And someone like Akiko, who is more balanced of a skater, would have easily beat Mao's score at NHK if she didn't commit what are arguably the most costly things one can do under CoP scoring--pop 2 of her jumps in her program, thereby netting almost zero points on them.

To be fair, I was the one who bought up the 133 PB first....all I was trying to explain is that Mao has gotten much higher scores with much more content, therefore her scores now make sense.
 

Becki

Medalist
Joined
Nov 28, 2011
Thanks ^_^ I have faith Yuzuru will have a breakthrough and take bronze!! I mean, he has beaten the other 4 men in the same competition at CoR lol, i believe he can do it again. I really hope Daisuke can add GPF Gold Medalist to his list of accomplishments :p
 

miki88

Medalist
Joined
Dec 28, 2009
May be I don't consider artistry like everyone else. To some maybe as long as long as she fulfill their version of the idealised beautiful skater, it would qualify her as artistic. For me that is just projection what you feel is artistic, but nothing to do with true artistry itself which should be abstract, free, lucid and subjective to what the performer are trying to express with originality, meanings and deliberated thoughts with clarity.

I am sorry but aren't you contradicting yourself? You're saying that artistry should be abstract and yet your basing your judgments on what is essentially your own opinions on what artistry is supposed to be. It's just like you said, she is artistic to some because she fulfills their aesthetic tastes. Just because a skater doesn't fulfill your criteria for artistry doesn't mean there's anything wrong with their form of expression.
 

wallylutz

Medalist
Joined
Mar 23, 2010
What's really exciting about this GPF is that no one can safely predict a winner for any of the 4 disciplines. Even some of the medalists could be quite surprising as well. In Ice Dance, there is a an open battle for the Bronze medal but I don't know who is the favorite because team B/S who beat S/S by almost 20 points just lost to W/P who then was beaten by S/S by fractions. The Singles are also wide open, while Chan has not yet been beaten since winning this event last year, he has yet found his consistency this year or the 4S that he intends to add to his repertoire. The ladies are all over the map. May the best wins.
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
What's really exciting about this GPF is that no one can safely predict a winner for any of the 4 disciplines. Even some of the medalists could be quite surprising as well. In Ice Dance, there is a an open battle for the Bronze medal but I don't know who is the favorite because team B/S who beat S/S by almost 20 points just lost to W/P who then was beaten by S/S by fractions. The Singles are also wide open, while Chan has not yet been beaten since winning this event last year, he has yet found his consistency this year or the 4S that he intends to add to his repertoire. The ladies are all over the map. May the best wins.

To be honest, I think P/B have a slight edge for the bronze. But based on scores -- yes yes you can't compare across competitions -- not by much.

But if P/B score as expected and get third, the battle may be for 4th place instead. ;)
 

Canadasfan

Spectator
Joined
Nov 24, 2011
And maybe you'll understand why Mao is able to score the highest LP score this year with her less than stellar jump content if you looked at the rest of the ladies field instead of focussing on Mao. If Yu-Na was around, she will definitely beat out Mao's highest LP score this year. The problem is, none of the other ladies are producing like that. Skaters with enough PCS--e.g. Carolina Kostner--have jump content that is even less technically demanding than Mao. Whereas skaters with more tech content, like Liza Tuktamisheva and Alena Leonova, are seriously lacking when it comes to PCS (Liza's ice coverage, Alena's less than stellar SS, CH, etc).

I just wanted to second this :) It's disappointing to see some of the ladies doing so well with limited jump content, but no one else is doing better. I think the absence of Yuna, Joannie, and Miki has left a big gap that nobody has filled yet. The skaters who are left can still do well even when not at their best. I expect Mao, at least, to be much better by 4C's and Worlds.

Here's my predictions for the GPF:

Ladies

  1. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
  2. Akiko Suzuki
  3. Mao Asada
  4. Carolina Kostner
  5. Alena Leonova
  6. Alissa Czinsy

Tukts has had the best technical content and the best consistency so far. Akiko Suzuki beat Mao at NHK and was 2nd only to Tukts at SC, so I put her 2nd. I'm guessing that either Kostner or Czinsy will have enough mistakes to put Leonova in 5th.

I also think the placements will be messy, and Tukts could win without winning either segment.

Men

  1. Daisuke Takahashi
  2. Patrick Chan
  3. Javier Fernandez
  4. Yuzuru Hanyu
  5. Michal Brezina
  6. Jeremy Abbott

I think Patrick needs more time to perfect his programs this year. This is assuming that Daisuke's performance at NHK wasn't a one-off, and he can repeat it in the final. Loving his LP! Fernandez is getting better and better - the top 3 could be in any order.

Pairs

  1. Savchenko/Szolkowy
  2. Volosozhar/Trankov
  3. Kawaguti/Smirnov
  4. Duhamel/Radford
  5. Zhang/Zhang
  6. Takahashi/Tran

Edit: Remembered that Duhamel/Radford were excited to be competing so close to where they train; boosted them one place, they should feel comfortable and compete well.

Dance
  1. Davis/White
  2. Virtue/Moir
  3. Pechalat /Bourzat
  4. Weaver/Poje
  5. Bobrova/Soliev
  6. Shibutani & Shibutani

Like Patrick, I think V/M need some more time to perfect their FD. I'm looking forward to seeing it at Nationals!
 
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wallylutz

Medalist
Joined
Mar 23, 2010
Ladies - My predicted top 5 for Worlds are the same as the current standings of these ladies in terms of total scores on the Grand Prix. I'll stick with that here and slate Tuktamisheva in right behind Asada, as that makes sense.
1. Asada
2. Tuktamisheva
3. Kostner
4. Suzuki
5. Czisny
6. Leonova

psst...BoP, your prediction of top 5 at Worlds based on the current GP standing can't possibly be correct because Tuktamisheva can't go to Worlds since she is still too young for Senior ISU Championships. :laugh:
 

burntBREAD

Medalist
Joined
Mar 27, 2010
psst...BoP, your prediction of top 5 at Worlds based on the current GP standing can't possibly be correct because Tuktamisheva can't go to Worlds since she is still too young for Senior ISU Championships. :laugh:

Nono, what he meant was the top 5 is all of them except Tuktamisheva so he's expecting top 5 at worlds to be
1. Asada
2. Kostner
3. Suzuki
4. Czisny
5. Leonova

And he added in Tuktamisheva
 

cosmos

On the Ice
Joined
Oct 2, 2007
I'd say Mao is a lovely and beautiful skater, but may be that is because she is like that to begin with. Her natural style as evident in her earlier days is still more or less as her style today that ALSO happens to match the archetypes ethereal skater because of her classic ballet training,. This may makes her a classic beautiful skater, but not truly an artistically matured skater in the grand scheme of things. IMO Tat tried to push her to develope her artistry through diversity and experimentation. Problem with these things is, they can be costly excercises to someone who's not naturally expressive (beyond the self convincingly) and competition wise it proved too costly and the scale of ambition did not fair well with her desire to remain competitive, thus her Lieberstraume 2 years in a row now.

Couldn't agree more. Mao's artistry is more or less like that of Alissa. They both show their beauty best in a lyrical music (like Chopin) with pretty posture. But, they do not really show the character of music.
 

Bartek

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 29, 2009
Kim and Asada also had to go through this phase in their career in which Liza is right now, building the reputation and increasing PCS.

Kim's components in her SP in 2006-2007 season:
Skate Canada 24,83
Trophee Eric Bombard 27,52
Grand Prix Final 28,40
Worlds 30,46

Like Irina Slutskaya once said: "The same program, the same dress, different components". Did Yu-Na's choreography or transitions really change so much between SC and Worlds? It's the same with Liza now. If she was allowed to compete et Euros and Worlds her components surely would be higher there.
 

hurrah

Medalist
Joined
Aug 8, 2009
I have found myself crying when watching some of Mao's performances. Never had that happened to me before. In such moments, 'artistry' is not enough of a word to capture the wonderfulness of her performance.
I think Mao's spins and skating skills have improved over the years, and so she's a more rounded skater now than before.
But I would say that she has always had the ability to embody the music because she has an innate ability to seamlessly coordinate parts of her entire body into a fluid movement.
If facial expression is considered important in terms of defining whether or not someone has 'artistry', then she's been improving every year. If you look at some of the photos of Mao performing Bells, her facial expressions were surely appropriately dark to match the darkness of Bells, and her joyful smile this season is appropriate to the moods of this season's music.
 

OS

Sedated by Modonium
Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 23, 2010
I am sorry but aren't you contradicting yourself? You're saying that artistry should be abstract and yet your basing your judgments on what is essentially your own opinions on what artistry is supposed to be. It's just like you said, she is artistic to some because she fulfills their aesthetic tastes. Just because a skater doesn't fulfill your criteria for artistry doesn't mean there's anything wrong with their form of expression.


I don't think I am.

What you are saying is: 10 different skating fans of 10 different skaters all think their own favourite skaters is the most artistic, AND they would be right, because it is 'subjective' to their preference and what they think artistic. I disagree with that.

In the bigger world where artistry are often applied (fine art, music, literature, fashion, theatre etc) regardless of my own personal preferences, the ones that qualifies to be called artistic is the one that shows their best work with originality, credible persuasion through all manners of creativity, imagination and expressions beyond what is laid out infront of them, hence in the art circle, we often talk about 'beyond the self'. That is what artist do. They need to visibly seen make progress, realisation, exploration in their journey for new ideas, old ideas, bring forth their own unique thinking, approach, communication that is different from the last to to reach some aspect of transcension and realisation.

While you can be the most successful fashion designer in the world doing the same thing over and over again, but that does not make you the most artistic designer. It just makes you a great craftsman like those Saville Row suits makers who can make immaculately suites but were based on knowledge passed down through generations instead of go out there and become a Paul Smith, who are interested in new fabrics, textures, new techniques, new quirky ideas and styles, individualism etc.
 

burntBREAD

Medalist
Joined
Mar 27, 2010
But that's your own definition of artistry. Artistry is only in the eye of the beholder. You can't say that because the world has said such and such to be artistic, that it is the standard, because all those that have been deemed artistic are also determind by human subjectivity. Based on your criteria, roughly 99.9% of all people are not artists, because they are not progressive enough. My mother is an artist, she worked both as a corporate graphic designer as well as creating her own art, and I have learned from her that there is artistic merit in everything. You can find artistry in the strangest things. For example, I recently visited the art museum at my university (which is very large so the art museum isn't some run-of-the-mill gallery) and there was a painting on display that was quite literally cheap paint and nails on a canvas creating two people's heads that looked like a second grader's art. Yet we were told all about it, told it was a fine example of folk art. I didn't think it was artistic, it certainly didn't look "new", but others basically planted that it was art in our heads. And I don't think you can do that.

The question here is: who determines artistry? For example, I don't think Bach's music is "artistic" (if that makes any sense) at all, but as a whole human society has deemed it "art". I don't really find Andy Warhol's work innovative (although I love it), but it too, is art. So how can we say something is artistic or not? We didn't determine that they were artistic, others did for us. So artistry is all about your own interpretation IMO.

Here is the definition of art (noun): the quality, production, expression, or realm, according to aesthetic principles, of what is beautiful, appealing, or of more than ordinary significance. Aesthetic principles are created by human subjectivity.

But aren't definitions also created by what humans think "oh, this describes the word best"? ;) We're trapped!

Of course, this is all in my point of view (aka subjective). So take it as you will! Different opinions spice things up.
 
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Dragonlady

Final Flight
Joined
Aug 23, 2003
Pairs

  1. Savchenko/Szolkowy
  2. Volosozhar/Trankov
  3. Kawaguti/Smirnov
  4. Duhamel/Radford
  5. Zhang/Zhang
  6. Takahashi/Tran

Edit: Remembered that Duhamel/Radford were excited to be competing so close to where they train; boosted them one place, they should feel comfortable and compete well.

Yes, they have a two hour drive to get from Montreal to Quebec City, not a transcontinental flight with attendant jet lag. They also scored 115 points at TEB with three falls. There is a serious possibility that they can beat the Zhangs, and if any of the top 3 teams have a bad day at the office, they might even slide in for 3rd, if they can skate a clean LP.
 

dorispulaski

Wicked Yankee Girl
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
Country
United-States
Travel distance is also small for Takahashi / Tran. T&T are also coached by Richard Gauthier, as are D&R, so they are equally as close to Quebec City.
 

prettykeys

Medalist
Joined
Oct 19, 2009
Couldn't agree more. Mao's artistry is more or less like that of Alissa. They both show their beauty best in a lyrical music (like Chopin) with pretty posture. But, they do not really show the character of music.
Oooooh... while I enjoy Alissa Czisny's variant of the pretty-pretty, she cannot be compared to Mao Asada! Not the same skater who gave us the Nocturne SP, the Por Una Cabeza EX, the Jupiter EX...! :bow: There is versatility behind that sweet, innocent smile.

I sort of agree with what Os is getting at, in the sense that while the Liebestraume LP is beautiful, it is something of the same-ol', same-ol' Mao and I would be ecstatic if she had a program that was like her Jupiter EX: something more savoury, more complex than the saccharin thing we've seen from her before. But still, I know that one day when the girl retires, I am going to miss her and I suspect that there will not be a skater who can replace her for a long, long time. She is one of the skaters who is saving this Ladies' season from being totally in the pitzzzzz.
 
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