GP Final Analysis and Predictions | Page 2 | Golden Skate

GP Final Analysis and Predictions

Jaana

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 27, 2003
Country
Finland
In men´s discipline I think that Chan is going to win and especially these skaters are battling about silver and bronze medal: Takahashi, Fernandez and Hanyu.
 

FTnoona

Final Flight
Joined
Dec 26, 2009
Ladies
1. Elizaveta
2. Akiko
3. Kostner, Asada, Czisny (depends on who jumps better that day)

Elizaveta seems to have this competition in the bag as long as she does all her jumps as she has been doing. Akiko can be a possible spoiler b/c her jumps are quite consistent too compared to Kostner, Asada, Czisny. Leonova will be at the bottom of the pack unless Asada and Czisny implode on their jumps.

Mens
1. Chan
2. Takahashi
3. Javier
4. Brezina
5. Jeremy
6. Yuzuru

Chan has the jumps and the PCS to back him up unlike Takahashi who IMO is inconsistent with the jumps but has the huge PCS to back him up. Javier for bronze b/c he has effortless quads. Brezina will probably be in 4th place. Jeremy is even worse than Takahashi w/jump consistency and can see him at the bottom if he tanks his jumps again. Hanyu only has a chance if the others implode on their jumps and he lands all of his which he seems to be pretty consistent at doing. My dream podium would be in any order as long has Hanyu is on the podium! A girl can dream :biggrin:
 

lavender

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
Eliza says she's expecting to win so I'm hoping for someone a little more humble. That's just how I like them. Her winning certainly wouldn't be a upset to her.

I hope the podium is...

Mao
Alissa
Kostner or Akiko

No particular order.

Going by consistenty/talent
1. Takahashi
2. Chan
3. Fernandez

I would put Abbott on the podium but he's kind of a headcase.

Pairs
1. Savchenko & Szolkowy
2. Volosozhar & Trankov
3. Kavaguti & Smirnov
 
Last edited:

jettasian

Match Penalty
Joined
Mar 21, 2009
Men
1. Takahashi
2. Chan
3. Fernandez
4. Hanyu
5. Brezina
6. Abbott

Ladies
No idea

Pairs
1. Savchenko/Szolkowy
2. Kavaguti/Smirnov
3. Duhamel/Radford
4. Moore-Towers/Moscovitch
5. Takahashi/Tran
6. Zhang/Zhang

If Volosozhar/Trankov compete, place them first, and take out Mt/M

Dance
1. Virtue/Moir (hometown bonus. Need to get the levels though, or it won't happen)
2. Davis/White
3. Pechalat/Bourzat
4. Weaver/Poje
5. Shibutani/Shibutani
6. Bobrova/Soloviev

So if V/M wins, that's because of hometown advantage? Really? I'm surprised that with hometown advantage and inflation marks, Chan's still second :rolleye:
 

jettasian

Match Penalty
Joined
Mar 21, 2009
Maybe Elizaveta will pull an upset, like Mao did back in 2005, in which case, I predict the following:

Elizaveta
Mao
Akiko
Carolina
Alissa
Alena

For the men, Chan. The competition is in Canada, isn't it?

So I guess beside ladies, Canada should medal 4 then, right? Men, Pairs and 2 for Dance?
 

ImaginaryPogue

Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 3, 2009
So if V/M wins, that's because of hometown advantage? Really? I'm surprised that with hometown advantage and inflation marks, Chan's still second :rolleye:

I don't believe in inflation marks, so please don't ascribe that to me. I think it'll take Chan longer to master Aranjuez, and since he's still attempting to up his technical game with the quad salchow, I think Takahashi has the edge.
 

jenaj

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 17, 2003
Country
United-States
I just watched the NBC broadcast of TEB and based on what I saw, I'm going to change my predictions for the ladies, as follows:

Mao
Alissa
Elizaveta
Akiko
Carolina
Alena

This is a very strong field and I expect even the 6th place skater to score well. I was very impressed with Alissa's skate at TEB. She landed five triples, including two triple lutzes, a triple flip and two triple loops, and didn't fall. She won the free program over both Liza and Caro. If she can hold it together (and skate well in the short) I think she is going to be in the top three at least. Carolina's jump content is going to hold her back if Alissa (and Mao, Liza and Akiko) skate well. She may well end up in fourth. Mao will win if she skates her short like she did at COR and her long like she did at NHK. I still think that, overall, Mao's skating is the best in this field. But we shall see!
 

havefun

Rinkside
Joined
Oct 29, 2010
I think it is Maos and Alissas to lose. They have both the TES and PCS when they skate well. After that, all things being equal Akiko followed by Carolina/Tut and then Alena. That is IF they all skate their best.

I think they will all bring their A game. Qualifying is done, no pressure unless they put it on themselves.
 

seniorita

Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 3, 2008
I would love Akiko to win because her prorams are a joy and I d like to see her winning, Mao also, but Akiko has come a long way to have her season. But i think any of the 5 girls winning would be a wonderful story because they have had the low and high points in their career and came back, even Alena that people dont count on her much. I would be happy if Elisaveta medals, but I wouldnt want her to win, even if it would be a reat hype for her after, i believe it is too early for her and I want her to write her own story, not like Asada did in 2005, and it would be good to have the expericence and to have feedback to improve next season. For the same reason hanyu, I love that he won COR but Id like someone like Abott or Daisuke to win.
In pairs S/S have one of the best Lps ever for me and I d like them for gold.
 
M

mylastduchess

Guest
I don't believe in inflation marks, so please don't ascribe that to me. I think it'll take Chan longer to master Aranjuez, and since he's still attempting to up his technical game with the quad salchow, I think Takahashi has the edge.

Takahashi (NHK) still got outscored by Chan (SC) even with two falls. At least Chan has a quad to lean back on, and Takahashi isn't mr. consistent either
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
Takahashi (NHK) still got outscored by Chan (SC) even with two falls.

Just further evidence of how ridiculously overscored Chan is. Probably the most overscored skater in figure skating history. I dont even get bothered by his marks anymore, I just laugh at them. No skater in history, including many with better technical abilities and artistry than Chan, have been allowed 20% the mistakes he does and still winning everything.

Anyway for this one event I and some others just happen to be predicting enough problems for him and a strong enough skate by someone else to overcome this excessive bias from the Chan orgasm groupies (aka judges). Will it turn out that way? We will just have to wait and see.
 
M

mylastduchess

Guest
Just further evidence of how ridiculously overscored Chan is. Probably the most overscored skater in figure skating history. I dont even get bothered by his marks anymore, I just laugh at them. No skater in history, including many with better technical abilities and artistry than Chan, have been allowed 20% the mistakes he does and still winning everything.

Anyway for this one event I and some others just happen to be predicting enough problems for him and a strong enough skate by someone else to overcome this excessive bias from the Chan orgasm groupies (aka judges). Will it turn out that way? We will just have to wait and see.

Well maybe actually look at actual evidence and see, Chan landed all his jump except 1 in SC (including a 3A, and a quad triple) that with Takahashi`s non existant quad, I know people here just doesn`t want Chan to win but but c`mon I`m tired of the inflation wine train.
 

Mirunna

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 12, 2009
I believe the ladies podium will consist of Mao, Akiko and Liza, in any order. If they go clean, Mao-Akiko-Liza or Akiko-Mao-Liza will be the order. I don't see Carolina or Alissa making the podium, Alissa because she needs to skate clean both in Sp and Lp(so far she had a mini meltdown, the LP in SA and the SP in TEB), Carolina because even if she is semi-clean, there is not enough content to overtake a clean Mao, Akiko, Liza or Alissa. I'm curious to see how will Liza handle the pressure to skate last in the SP. So far it was all fun for her, the newcomer skating in the first group, landing stuff and putting pressure on the others. Now she is the first qualifier to the GPF and some expect her to win. Adelina didn't make it, now it's her chance to show she is Russia nr 1. She can do it, she is a tough competitor, but I'm afraid sooner or later the pressure will get to her.
 

Layfan

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 5, 2009
Liza has been such a tough competitor this year. It has been so exciting to watch her. She is far from perfect but, wow, what a talent. I just have loved seeing a lady with such fire again. I think she really has energized the ladies field. Adelina, too, even if she didn't make the GP final. She still proved she is a top competitor.

Akiko has also been a wonderful surprise this year. Well, I am not surprised that I love her skating but I love it that she has done so well and is going for the 3x3.

I think Carolina and Alissa could still beat Liza and Akiko but they have to be perfect, pretty much. Or at least near perfect.

It's going to be a much more enjoyable GP ladies Final for me than last year. I enjoy watching these ladies.

Everyone's predictions seem right to me.

3. Akiko

I hope Mao wins and I think Liza will medal. but apart from that I can't bring myself to make any predictions or a dream podium, since I want Akiko, Carolina and Alissa to medal almost equally.


i have a good feeling about Takahashi this season. He seems in great shape and relaxed. I don't know much about him personally but with a world gold and an Olympic bronze in the bag it seem to me he is in it now to push himself personally and just because he loves it. i think it makes him more relaxed and a good competitor.

I am going to go with him for the gold and Patrick for the silver but if Patrick is clean he will win for sure. I don't have a good feeling about Jeremy but fingers crossed that he will prove me wrong and skates his lights out and snags a medal.

I pretty much like all of the men in this comp and would be happy for any of them medaling. :)
 
Last edited:

draqq

FigureSkatingPhenom
Record Breaker
Joined
May 10, 2010
1. Chan
2. Takahashi
3. Fernandez
4. Hanyu
5. Abbott
6. Brezina

- Jet lag may take a toll on Takahashi, as Chan and Fernandez both train in Canada. But Takahashi only plans one quad, and the rest of his program is triples, which he can do in his sleep. Chan's place at the top is quite precarious, though. He hasn't been able to perform a clean quad and triple axel in any program consistently thus far, and the other skaters in the pack (namely, Takahashi, Fernandez, and Abbott) have considerably narrowed the gap between Chan's and their PCS. Fernandez is in third position because of his athleticism and I believe his stamina will return in time for the GPF.

As much as I want Abbott to win, he has to nail all of his jumps and triple-toe combinations to be considered for medal contention. Brezina and Hanyu are jumping powerhouses but will need to be foot perfect to get into the top 3.

1. Tuktamisheva
2. Asada
3. Kostner
4. Czisny
5. Suzuki
6. Leonova

- Tuktamisheva could easily win with her technical prowess and consistency. Even Asada has trouble with her edge calls and she has been fragile overseas. Her short program may not be good enough to get into the top 3. Kostner has the edge on Czisny in terms of her jump consistency even if it's easier content. Czisny just has too many problems with getting the height on her jumps and frequently gets an under-rotation call or 0's in GOE. Her transitions in the free aren't strong this year.

So as much as I'm a fan of her skating, I can see Suzuki and Leonova slipping past her in jumping alone. The judges, though, like her spins and general balletic artistry. I'm actually surprised that her choreographers don't incorporate more of her spirals in the transitions.

Suzuki is the dark horse and can achieve a second-place finish if she can keep up her cheer and stamina and not double her second triple lutz.

Pairs
1. Savchenko/Szolkowy
2. Kavaguti/Smirnov
3. Volosozhar/Trankov
4. Zhang/Zhang
5. Duhamel/Radford
6. Takahashi/Tran

- Not really much to say here. It's S/S's event to win or lose, mainly whether they chose to go for the unnecessary throw triple axel.

Dance
1. Davis/White
2. Virtue/Moir
3. Pechalat/Bourzat
4. Weaver/Poje
5. Bobrova/Soloviev
6. Shibutani/Shibutani

As other have predicted, Virtue/Moir will likely win the short dance with their strength in Latin dances through their interpretation and hip movement. But their transitions mark in the free program will hurt them and Davis/White can easily slip ahead of them with their complex holds.

The rest of the teams fall in line rather easily based on their prior match-ups this season. Pechalat/Bourzat have deeper edges and a stronger theme than Weaver/Poje, who have higher technical difficulty than Bobrova/Soloviev, who have better transitions than the Shibutani's.
 

Layfan

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 5, 2009
1. Chan
2. Takahashi
3. Fernandez
4. Hanyu
5. Abbott
6. Brezina

- Jet lag may take a toll on Takahashi, as Chan and Fernandez both train in Canada. But Takahashi only plans one quad, and the rest of his program is triples, which he can do in his sleep. Chan's place at the top is quite precarious, though. He hasn't been able to perform a clean quad and triple axel in any program consistently thus far, and the other skaters in the pack (namely, Takahashi, Fernandez, and Abbott) have considerably narrowed the gap between Chan's and their PCS. Fernandez is in third position because of his athleticism and I believe his stamina will return in time for the GPF.

As much as I want Abbott to win, he has to nail all of his jumps and triple-toe combinations to be considered for medal contention. Brezina and Hanyu are jumping powerhouses but will need to be foot perfect to get into the top 3.

1. Tuktamisheva
2. Asada
3. Kostner
4. Czisny
5. Suzuki
6. Leonova

- Tuktamisheva could easily win with her technical prowess and consistency. Even Asada has trouble with her edge calls and she has been fragile overseas. Her short program may not be good enough to get into the top 3. Kostner has the edge on Czisny in terms of her jump consistency even if it's easier content. Czisny just has too many problems with getting the height on her jumps and frequently gets an under-rotation call or 0's in GOE. Her transitions in the free aren't strong this year.

So as much as I'm a fan of her skating, I can see Suzuki and Leonova slipping past her in jumping alone. The judges, though, like her spins and general balletic artistry. I'm actually surprised that her choreographers don't incorporate more of her spirals in the transitions.

Suzuki is the dark horse and can achieve a second-place finish if she can keep up her cheer and stamina and not double her second triple lutz.

Pairs
1. Savchenko/Szolkowy
2. Kavaguti/Smirnov
3. Volosozhar/Trankov
4. Zhang/Zhang
5. Duhamel/Radford
6. Takahashi/Tran

- Not really much to say here. It's S/S's event to win or lose, mainly whether they chose to go for the unnecessary throw triple axel.

Dance
1. Davis/White
2. Virtue/Moir
3. Pechalat/Bourzat
4. Weaver/Poje
5. Bobrova/Soloviev
6. Shibutani/Shibutani

As other have predicted, Virtue/Moir will likely win the short dance with their strength in Latin dances through their interpretation and hip movement. But their transitions mark in the free program will hurt them and Davis/White can easily slip ahead of them with their complex holds.

The rest of the teams fall in line rather easily based on their prior match-ups this season. Pechalat/Bourzat have deeper edges and a stronger theme than Weaver/Poje, who have higher technical difficulty than Bobrova/Soloviev, who have better transitions than the Shibutani's.

I don't know that Kostner has the edge on Czisny in terms of jump consitency. She SHOULD, given her better jumping technique and power and easier content but Carolina somehow is just as prone to stumbles. Still, she does outskate Alissa in terms of speed and power, easily. Plus, so far, she has shown more joy in her LP than Alissa. you can see alissa thinking more than Carolina. it goes without saying that Alissa has the edge over Caro when it comes to lines and spins. In the end, I think a clean Alissa edges a clean Caro this season because of her higher tech content and the extra tech points she should get for her spins.

I don't see Akiko as the dark horse. It is tempting to think of Akiko and Alena as dark horses because Alissa and Carolina are the defending gold and silver medalists but Akiko and Alena have done so well this season. I don't think there is really a dark horse. I wouldn't be shocked at any outcome. (Well, okay, I will be surprised if Mao and Liza don't medal but it'll come down to the performance. There is no Yuna-type overwhelming favorite in this competition but there are six ladies who have all made a case for themselves this series.)
 
Last edited:

ImaginaryPogue

Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 3, 2009
1. Chan
2. Takahashi
3. Fernandez
4. Hanyu
5. Abbott
6. Brezina

- Jet lag may take a toll on Takahashi, as Chan and Fernandez both train in Canada. But Takahashi only plans one quad, and the rest of his program is triples, which he can do in his sleep. Chan's place at the top is quite precarious, though. He hasn't been able to perform a clean quad and triple axel in any program consistently thus far, and the other skaters in the pack (namely, Takahashi, Fernandez, and Abbott) have considerably narrowed the gap between Chan's and their PCS. Fernandez is in third position because of his athleticism and I believe his stamina will return in time for the GPF.

As much as I want Abbott to win, he has to nail all of his jumps and triple-toe combinations to be considered for medal contention. Brezina and Hanyu are jumping powerhouses but will need to be foot perfect to get into the top 3.

1. Chan trains in Colorado, but your point still stands

2. Takahashi's consistently hit with multiple urs, which eats away at his TES. I wouldn't assert he could do a one quad, 7 (8?) triple program in his sleep.
 

NorthernDancers

On the Ice
Joined
Jan 15, 2010
Ok.... I'll make some predictions now that we have had a chance to see all of these skaters....

MEN'S
1. Chan - he's just that amazing a skater, and I have a feeling he will get those jumps under control this time
2. Takahashi - love watching his skating; if he skates clean, he can beat Chan when he isn't having a good day
3. Fernandez - LOVE his progress this year, and he is such a great personality
4. Hanyu
5. Abbott - although he could move up to 3rd or 4th on a really good weekend
6. Brezina

WOMEN'S
1. Tuktamesheva - simply because she is the most consistent technically, and has so much fire about her
2. Asada - she's looking very strong this season
3. Kostner - she is having a great season. She could move up to 2nd or 1st if she skates very clean and the others don't.
4. Czisny - she is so absolutely elegant, and when she's on, she's on.... she also could land anywhere on the podium
5. Suzuki
6. Leonova

PAIRS
1. Savchenko/Szolkowy - they are continuing to improve throughout the season, and I think they are the most innovate team
2. Kavaguti/Smirnov - I still worry about how absolutely thin she is, but they really do look lovely together this season
3. Volosozhar/Trankov - I do think their programs are a little "over done", but they have done well this season, and I really think any of these top 3 can finish in any order
4. Zhang/Zhang - I don't think they will find the podium here or at worlds this year
5. Duhamel/Radford - I'm trying to like them. There is just something off-putting about these 2 - and especially her.
6. Takahashi/Tran - I really wish Moore-Towers/Moscovitch were here instead. I think they are the better team. It would also be nice to have a preview of Nationals with the 2 top pair teams together with international judges. Ah well.... I think they were tied with Duhamel/Radford in points, so their scores mattered. Duhamel and Radford beat them by just 2 scores.

DANCE
1. Virtue/Moir - not just because I love them so much, but I really do think in competition together the differences between these 2 and Davis/White will be clear enough in both the SD and FD
2. Davis/White - no question the top 2 places will belong to Virtue/Moir and Davis/White in some order. Both teams are in their own league, different competition
3. Weaver/Poje - assuming they skate very clean, it will be a battle between them and Pechalat/Bourzat
4. Pechalat/Bourzat - my heart is with Weaver/Poje, but I do think either Weaver/Poje or Pechalat/Bourzat could finish on the podium behind the top 2. I like a lot of programs from the French team, including their program about clocks and time from a few years ago. I'm not a fan of their program this year. Last year's was much more watchable.
5. Shibutani/Shibutani - they really are very good technically. They are missing the creative and artistic edge of the teams ahead of them - the maturity.
6. Bobrova/Soloviev - I really think this team was over-marked both times. They do not have the technical quality of the teams ahead of them. All 5 of them are better than this team right now.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
I believe the ladies podium will consist of Mao, Akiko and Liza, in any order. If they go clean, Mao-Akiko-Liza or Akiko-Mao-Liza will be the order. I don't see Carolina or Alissa making the podium, Alissa because she needs to skate clean both in Sp and Lp(so far she had a mini meltdown, the LP in SA and the SP in TEB), Carolina because even if she is semi-clean, there is not enough content to overtake a clean Mao, Akiko, Liza or Alissa. I'm curious to see how will Liza handle the pressure to skate last in the SP. So far it was all fun for her, the newcomer skating in the first group, landing stuff and putting pressure on the others. Now she is the first qualifier to the GPF and some expect her to win. Adelina didn't make it, now it's her chance to show she is Russia nr 1. She can do it, she is a tough competitor, but I'm afraid sooner or later the pressure will get to her.

You think Akiko would win if they all skated cleanly? Interesting.
 

jettasian

Match Penalty
Joined
Mar 21, 2009
Just further evidence of how ridiculously overscored Chan is. Probably the most overscored skater in figure skating history. I dont even get bothered by his marks anymore, I just laugh at them. No skater in history, including many with better technical abilities and artistry than Chan, have been allowed 20% the mistakes he does and still winning everything.

Anyway for this one event I and some others just happen to be predicting enough problems for him and a strong enough skate by someone else to overcome this excessive bias from the Chan orgasm groupies (aka judges). Will it turn out that way? We will just have to wait and see.
And I just laugh at your post. Too funny, you should do comedy.
 
Top