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Thread: GP Final Analysis and Predictions

  1. #136
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    Quote Originally Posted by jcoates View Post
    it's been noted in numerous psychology studies that so called home field advantage plays little to no measurable role in performance among athletes.
    Could it be possible that most of the research studies on home advantage are conducted about "team sport" (e.g., baseball, basketball, ice hockey, etc.) where subjectivity in scoring is minimum?
    A research study I came upon in 2010 concluded that the host‐country and same‐region biases are statistically significant in figure skating (http://www.dartmouth.edu/~ericz/transparency.pdf.). Of course, I did not and am too lazy to do a comprehensive literature review.

  2. #137
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    The hometown bonus is interesting. I'd argue some skaters get a real thrill perfoming at home (Virtue/Moir for example) whereas others find it nervewracking (Weaver/Poje have never had two strong skates on home ice)

  3. #138
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    Quote Originally Posted by jettasian View Post
    It makes me sick that people think the Canadians will win because the event is in Canada. Very insulting to the Canadian skaters that they can only win because they are Canadian.
    Didn't you say the same thing two week ago about Daisuke in NHK thread?

  4. #139
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    Quote Originally Posted by ImaginaryPogue View Post
    The hometown bonus is interesting. I'd argue some skaters get a real thrill perfoming at home (Virtue/Moir for example) whereas others find it nervewracking (Weaver/Poje have never had two strong skates on home ice)
    Joubert always says he finds it difficult to skate in France because he feels a lot of pressure from the crowd. And he does rather poorly at TEB. Slutskaya also said it was extremely difficult for her to skate at 2005 Worlds in her hometown. I think it depends on a skater, some of them like it and the others do not.

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    I think that the cheering of the crowd may give skaters an edge, and it may affect the judges to some extent (yes, it SHOULDN'T, I know.) But if it's very close between two skaters, and one is in front of a hometown crowd, I can see someone tipping it to the home team. Nobody wants to be criticized in the papers, booed as they leave the arena or anything like that. (Yes, I know, it SHOULDN'T make a difference). But if D/w and V/M both skate really, really well and its close, I think it will go to the Canadians. Patrick Chan is unbeatable, anyway.)

  6. #141
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    Quote Originally Posted by skatinginbc View Post
    Could it be possible that most of the research studies on home advantage are conducted about "team sport" (e.g., baseball, basketball, ice hockey, etc.) where subjectivity in scoring is minimum?
    A research study I came upon in 2010 concluded that the host‐country and same‐region biases are statistically significant in figure skating (http://www.dartmouth.edu/~ericz/transparency.pdf.). Of course, I did not and am too lazy to do a comprehensive literature review.
    You also have to consider the fact that most home skaters don't have to travel too much. Jet lag plays a large role in how well skaters do, especially near the beginning and middle of the season.

  7. #142
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    Uh...I think I will ignore the accusation of being a racist for now just because I don't agree with the judging (surprised this discussion even took on this direction - hopefully it wasn't intentional).

    Sorry to have take up so much space on this thread, but I will just finish up my position on this discussion until the GPF results. I hope the winner to be someone who is judged on the merit of what they are able to deliver on the day. One that is not based on having or taking certain advantages of the rules, but on the strength of their performance and technical content.

    While you can throw the rule book at me, the bottom line is certain skaters @ home ice, their performance might be more or less the same (and sometimes worse according to jcoates which I do agree with), but it is the 'judging' can often appear more favourable if they are from a strong federation. They just get better hiding it behind the rule books within the small degrees of variance in scoring which could adds up and make a difference. I am sure I am not alone in noticing this trend watching figure skating over the years. This is not me accusing of Judges of deliberate foul play but acknowledging environmental factors can affect human judgment, and certain decisions and influences are likely to subject to socio economic factors in which this sport is highly sensitive to. The influence only become more visible and obvious when the skaters failed to deliver what they are suppose to like Mao has done at NHK as an example that benchmarked her as the highest LP performer this year, which actually could help her in the long run when she goes clean (even on the same lesser content like she has now compared with everyone else) and continues to be unfairly to others.

    Thanks to skatinginbc's research study reference from Dartmouth, its conclusion support the above views quote below:

    I have shown in this paper that figure skaters benefit from a compatriot on their judging panel, that this benefit likely reflects a combination of nationalistic bias and vote trading, and that this benefit has risen slightly over time. The increase in the combination of bias and vote trading was despite a reform that was purportedly intended to reduce it. A key component of that reform was eliminating transparency into which judge gave which score. Eliminating transparency was designed to make it harder to parties to collusive agreements to monitor judges, but this came at the cost of making monitoring by outsiders harder as well.
    ......
    One can thus view the ISU's anonymity reform as a well‐intentioned attempt to reduce corruption that failed due to insufficiently effective internal monitoring. A less optimistic view is that the ISU's goal was to reduce the perception of corruption rather than actual corruption. If current perceptions of corruption are underestimates, or if limited attention is expected to lead to underestimates in the absence of information in the future, then reducing transparency can be an end in itself.
    While you can accuse my views are based on 'hasty generalization', I would equally challenge the COP is built on a fallacy system of numeric variables that has enough of threshold to be able to be manipulated within a small margin within the rules, and able to be done anonymously without accountability.

    While it may be natural to trust in numeric/statistical data that seems to imply on things that are identical, but in reality these judgements are based on 'cognition' and 'interpretation' therefore are subject to all sort of 'residual' problems (reputation, impressions, influencing) and 'latency' problems (judgement during the competition 'in the moment' and after the competition upon reflection are not equal).

    The judges project their views with numerous levels of sophistication, knowledge of skater's history, perceived levels, personal biases, what they feel at that moment in time and are all subject to environmental factors even if they tries their best to be as professional as possible. The COP rules apparently also involve modifying statistical values annually based on propositions and support from strong federations and somehow cherry picked fixes that ends up favour certain factions/skaters. It ends up impossible to have a coherent comparison to truly compare the standards beyond what these numbers apply. The disagreement like this then ends up being about who can were able to cherry pick the best statistics to support their views, who knows the rule (and change) better, but it fails to address the logic if the performance themselves don't stand up relative to everyone else in the field, why does it not show up in their scores. While PCS indicate a superior skater, yet high PCS should not be deserved when the skater failed to deliver a superior performance that has mistakes and lacks a competitive technical content, compares to everyone else and themselves previously.

    Could it be by only observing and believing in the relativity, we are blinded by the possibility these fundamental numerics could be wrong in the first place?

    When you have 3 clean triples program at NHK ends up being the highest LP score out of this season relative to others without a 3:3, 3A or a true Lutz. This certainly would not fly in 6.0 where beauty and artistry is even more appreciated than under COP, which seems to be the argument raised by many to justify Mao's score (that along with relative to Alena's score, which I'd argue is somewhat overmarked as well). And I'd argue 3 missing triple jumps of high difficulty is too big of a deal of score in this sport, when just 1 successful triple is the difference between a gold and a silver at the Olympics for Michelle Kwan.

    Imo, a field-leading performances should really able to stand up on its own merit regardless of the rules and any judging system.

    With the COP system, it may explain better the 'how' they got there, but they clearly does not explain the 'why'. The fact is Mao's highest LP at NHK along with the < and flutz would certainly NOT have earned her the same mark in a competition in Skate America 1 or 2 year ago, before the < and flutz rule change this year which makes these mistake less costly. Or even stack up to her previous scores with better technical content and performance. Infact if I remember correctly (feel free to correct if I remembered wrong), ISU increased the value of 3A last year so an under rotated 3A is worth as much as a true Lutz; increased the value of 3Loop, reduced the general value for lutz as well as 3:3s and GOEs, while making falls/under rotations/edge calls less costly. That is the reality COP system I am questioning.

    Regarding to the levels, it is a matter of taking your word that it is technical and therefore most take it for grant it is accurate. But actually the investigative logic in me would be wondering if it because it is so technical that nobody ever bother to question it and assumes it is always true. Carolina suddenly raised by 2 levels @ COC... sorry but that makes me even more suspicious, but I will let that be for now. There are tons of better things to do on Sunday weekends

    So upcoming GPF should be interesting... go Liza and Dai!!
    Last edited by os168; 12-04-2011 at 04:51 PM.

  8. #143
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    Quote Originally Posted by os168 View Post
    When you have 3 clean triples program at NHK ends up being the highest LP score out of this season relative to others without a 3:3, 3A or a true Lutz. This certainly would not fly in 6.0 where beauty and artistry is even more appreciated than under COP, which seems to be the argument raised by many to justify Mao's score (that along with relative to Alena's score, which I'd argue is somewhat overmarked as well). And I'd argue 3 missing triple jumps of high difficulty is too big of a deal of score in this sport, when just 1 successful triple is the difference between a gold and a silver at the Olympics for Michelle Kwan.
    But here's the thing about 6.0. If Mao did that same NHK performance under 6.0, her flutz would have barely been noticed (Several American skaters have fared well including Sarah Hughes and Sasha Cohen despite being flutzers), nor would the URs. Many people have noted that neither Tara Lipinski nor Sarah Hughes would have likely won under COP because they would be hit with edge calls and URs. In fact the 3L-3L that won Tara Lipinski gold in 1998 probably would not be ratified in COP today, the second jump would have been UR.

    In 6.0, what mattered more is the number of triples landed without falling. So by that thought Mao landed six triples. She might have gotten -.2 or -.3 for the flutz, but they did not have a mechanism to deduct for UR triples.

    Back to COP — 125 at NHK is hardly Mao's best score. She is capable of being a 130+ skater when she has a 3A and 3-3. So it makes sense she's more of a 120-125 skater with out either element.
    Last edited by Mrs. P; 12-04-2011 at 01:56 PM.

  9. #144
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    Quote Originally Posted by skatinginbc View Post
    Could it be possible that most of the research studies on home advantage are conducted about "team sport" (e.g., baseball, basketball, ice hockey, etc.) where subjectivity in scoring is minimum?
    A research study I came upon in 2010 concluded that the host‐country and same‐region biases are statistically significant in figure skating (http://www.dartmouth.edu/~ericz/transparency.pdf.). Of course, I did not and am too lazy to do a comprehensive literature review.
    Please note that my post was carefully written to refer to performance by the skaters relative to home ice advantage rather than to how they are judged. The only comment about judging was at the end. Even the examples I listed were references to how the competitors skated rather than how they placed. (e.g. I/K's placement was terrific given it was a debut at senior worlds; but they skated below what their best level.) I clearly accounted for other factors that are more likely to directly affect performance (and are often attributed to home ice advantage through over-simplified logic). Also, any subjectivity involved in judging skating can only take place after the skater has actually performed the program. Judged sport of not, the skater is still an athlete who must master the ability to compete under pressure and in a variety of settings and conditions.

    We put far too much emphasis in skating's status as a judged sport IMO. If the skaters perform up to ability, there is less opportunity to fiddle with marks. It's up to the skater to do his/her job first. Under COP, chances of a fix are far less likely.

    BTW, the studies I read while in school referred not just to team sports, but also to individual ones. As IP noted (and I did as well), some athletes respond well to the added variable of competing at home, while others crumble.

  10. #145
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    Quote Originally Posted by jcoates View Post
    Please note that my post was carefully written to refer to performance by the skaters relative to home ice advantage rather than to how they are judged.
    That is quite interesting, because statistically the home team always wins more often than the visitors.

    I just made a ten second search and found that in NHL (hockey) playoff games, the percentage is 60% (although last year was an anomaly).

    NBA basketball 59%.

    NFL football: regular season 57%, playoffs 68%.

    So if the home team doesn't perform any better, we have to look to the referees, umpires and judges, right?
    Last edited by Mathman; 12-04-2011 at 02:55 PM.

  11. #146
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    Quote Originally Posted by evangeline View Post
    The three examples I chose were the first ones off the top of my head this season, which coincidentally happened to support the appearance of such a home advantage. However, if you cast the net of examples wider (as ImaginaryPogue and hurrah have both pointed out) there are much more examples demonstrating otherwise. Carolina Kostner, for instance, received 2 level one spins in her LP at Skate America, while her spins in China were all level 4s. I don't think China is exactly Carolina's home turf, or is even on her home continent. So yes, coincidence.
    Not that I disagree with you about Mao, but assuming what os says is true or has some grain of truth in it regarding Federation influence, your example regarding Carolina does not disprove her assertion at all. Carolina is neither American or Chinese, so this example just shows that differences in Levels could happen without any favouritism. It doesn't mean that favouritism is non-existent in cases where skaters backed by strong federations skate at international events on home turf.

    Separately, let's not forget: Shin Amano.

    Quote Originally Posted by skatinginbc View Post
    Could it be possible that most of the research studies on home advantage are conducted about "team sport" (e.g., baseball, basketball, ice hockey, etc.) where subjectivity in scoring is minimum?
    ...perhaps, or perhaps also individual sports like tennis that are less nationalistically charged than figure skating. Your article was an interesting read.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mrs. P View Post
    But here's the thing about 6.0. If Mao did that same NHK performance under 6.0, her flutz would have barely been noticed (Several American skaters have fared well including Sarah Hughes and Sasha Cohen [and Michelle Kwan] despite being flutzers), nor would the URs.

    Many people have noted that neither Tara Lipinski nor Sarah Hughes would have likely won under COP because they would be hit with edge calls and URs. In fact the 3L-3L that won Tara Lipinski gold in 1998 probably would not be ratified in COP today, the second jump would have been UR.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZhIs6OIJ-I&t=2m49s Tara Lipinski's 3Lo-3Lo downgraded? I don't think so...

  12. #147
    can't come down to Earth prettykeys's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by jcoates View Post
    Please note that my post was carefully written to refer to performance by the skaters relative to home ice advantage rather than to how they are judged.
    That is quite interesting, because statistically the home team always wins more often than the visitors.

    I just made ten second search and found that in NHL (hockey) playoff games, the percentage is 60% (although last year was an anomaly).

    NBA basketball 59%.

    NFL football: regular season 57%, playoffs 68%.

    So if the home team doesn't perform any better, we have to look to the referees, umpires and judges, right?
    Your deduction is reasonable.

  13. #148
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    Quote Originally Posted by prettykeys View Post
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZhIs6OIJ-I&t=2m49s Tara Lipinski's 3Lo-3Lo downgraded? I don't think so...
    I didn't say DG, I said UR. Under the current rules there is a difference. As we've discussed extensively on this board, 3LO-combos are not ratified as much these days. It's hard to watch based on that YT video, but I could see a strict tech caller declaring it UR. For the record, I think Tara was the rightful winner (even thought at the time I was upset about it) of Olympic Gold. I only made that point to counter os168's argument that Mao's performance would have not done well in 6.0 — in contrast, it would have likely been fine because of the greater emphasis on clean programs and less on whether the jumps were free of UR/edge calls.

    And are you saying that Michelle Kwan was a flutzer?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mrs. P View Post
    And are you saying that Michelle Kwan was a flutzer?
    She had a kind of flatsy-watsy sometime-y Lutz. If you held your head at just the right angle when you watched, it was sort of on an outside edge.

  15. #150
    can't come down to Earth prettykeys's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mrs. P View Post
    I didn't say DG, I said UR. Under the current rules there is a difference. As we've discussed extensively on this board, 3LO-combos are not ratified as much these days. It's hard to watch based on that YT video, but I could see a strict tech caller declaring it UR. For the record, I think Tara was the rightful winner (even thought at the time I was upset about it) of Olympic Gold. I only made that point to counter os168's argument that Mao's performance would have not done well in 6.0 — in contrast, it would have likely been fine because of the greater emphasis on clean programs and less on whether the jumps were free of UR/edge calls.
    Sorry, I don't think it was UR. The first time I watched it, I was amazed and replayed it again and again. Neither 3Lo in the combo would get a <. By how many degrees do you think it was underrotated to receive a <?

    Quote Originally Posted by Mrs. P View Post
    And are you saying that Michelle Kwan was a flutzer?
    In 1998, yes. A 3Lz(e). When she improved it in later years, she may have gotten true 3Lz but sometimes it would have been a 3Lz(!).

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