GP Final Analysis and Predictions

[gardenernaga]

Hanyu probably can’t do quads or even triples properly in GPF, coz I heard that he sprained his right ankle before CoR. Doctor advised him to stop practicing jumps and even skip CoR, but his federation asked him to skate nonetheless.

And that was why he failed on both quad attempts in SP and FS. Even worse, the sprain got more serious after the competition, and now he can hardly do any jumps. His Japanese fans seem to worry about his Japanese Nationals.

I don’t read Japanese and use google translator, so I may have misread something. If someone here understands Japanese, then plz help find this out.

The truth is not so bad as you might worry.
I read the original article from the doctor's blog (deleted a few hours after it came public) and the truth is
Hanyu did sprain his right ankle one week before CoR, but the doctor did not advise him stop practicing jumps and skip CoR.
It is sure the doctor accompanied Yuzuru in Russia and treated him there, but it was not because of the sprained ankle.
They had promised to go to Russia together since the begging of this season.

Actually TV　news here in Tokyo just told Ms. Abe and Hanyu left for Canada today.

[Tommmy]

The truth is not so bad as you might worry.
I read the original article from the doctor's blog (deleted a few hours after it came public) and the truth is
Hanyu did sprain his right ankle one week before CoR, but the doctor did not advise him stop practicing jumps and skip CoR.
It is sure the doctor accompanied Yuzuru in Russia and treated him there, but it was not because of the sprained ankle.
They had promised to go to Russia together since the begging of this season.

Actually TV　news here in Tokyo just told Ms. Abe and Hanyu left for Canada today.

That's a relief.
But I also heard his ankle was swollen during the flight to Russia and couldn't practice three or four whole days.
Hope his ankle recover soon and won't affect Nationals...

[treeloving]

The truth is not so bad as you might worry.
I read the original article from the doctor's blog (deleted a few hours after it came public) and the truth is
Hanyu did sprain his right ankle one week before CoR, but the doctor did not advise him stop practicing jumps and skip CoR.
It is sure the doctor accompanied Yuzuru in Russia and treated him there, but it was not because of the sprained ankle.
They had promised to go to Russia together since the begging of this season.

Actually TV　news here in Tokyo just told Ms. Abe and Hanyu left for Canada today.

Thank you so much! At first, I'm very worry about him.

I hope his injury isn't serious (I mean even doctor doesn't tell him to stop practise jump; but ankle problem itself is horrible!)

Anyone know the cause of his injury?

[Joesitz]

There are no best Winners forever. There are only best winners that night/day when a championship is held, and it will last till the following championship. I like it when an American wins, but it's not necessary when a better player beats him. I like the Sport more than the Player, and marvel at the winner.

There are no broken bones to prevent a Player from participating if he so chooses to do so, and there is no fan or JUDGE that has has to see him differently.

BEST MAN THAT NIGHT WINS ! ! !

[doctor2014]

Thank you, gardenernaga, for your clarification. When I went back to check the doctor’s blog, the article was indeed deleted. It should be just my misreading, and I hope Hanyu has fully recovered from his ankle sprain.

But I also heard his ankle was swollen during the flight to Russia and couldn't practice three or four whole days.
Hope his ankle recover soon and won't affect Nationals...

Oh, no. You just made me worried again. Can you read Japanese? Today I found this Japanese “toku” website, which is supposed to be a large Japanese forum. I think I’ve read something similar to what you said and Hanyu’s sprain worsened so he could not do quads on Sunday? and what was about “junior jumps”?

Here are some of the original Japanese posts:
確かに右足首の捻挫の回復状況が読めないからなんとも
捻挫と言えば無理しなければ2週間程度で完治なんだろうけど程度にもよるし
ロシア杯1週間前に捻挫してロシアに着いた時点で腫れていて試合に出たんだからなあ…
ＧＰＦはできる範囲で最善を尽くしてほしいよ
全日本が一番大事だものね

A combination of online translation tools tell me:
“Read the recovery situation of the sprain of the right ankle because at all
If you mention the sprain, if it does not overstrain, it probably have to force in 2 weeks however, it depends and
Sprained 1 week before Cup of Russia, having become swollen at the point in time when he arrived to Russia, he appeared in the tournament, therefore it is,…
As for GPF we want exhausting the best in the range which it is possible.
All Japan is most important”

今日はクワドは跳んでなかったという噂あり
ジュニアの頃もジャンプ一切封印、ひたすらスケーティングしてたことあったね
いい機会じゃない？

“Today (Sunday) he has not jumped quad has such rumor
Seal any time of the junior jumps, and only has done skating
There is no good opportunity?”

I’m still going to hope it’s just a rumor and/or the translation tools did lousy jobs. Hanyu had beautiful quads in CoC and summer ice shows. I hope Hanyu, Fernandez, Chan, Brezina, Daisuke (4f!!), and even Jeremy can all show us quads in GPF. Then the competition will become really fun to watch

[skatinginbc]

...considerations for the opportunity cost of falling under CoP, the best example to illustrate this is the fact that Mao Asada has stopped doing the 3A. If the penalty were really just a mere another 2 points or so, why would Mr. Sato asked her to stop for now?

I feel uneasy about the opportunity cost being incorporated in the design of a scoring system. Firstly, the opportunity cost or the "marginal rate of transformation" (the successful rate at which production of one jump can be redirected into production of the other) is different for every individual. The cost is minimal for one who doesn't have many jumps in his arsenal yet huge for one who can easily produce an alternative. It is unfair to give different penalties to different individuals for the same mistake. Secondly, an opportunity cost is involved for every element (e.g., if one does a combination spin, he uses up the time and chance to do something else) and is not specific or pertinent to a fall.

The concept of an opportunity cost is best applied to productive efficiency (program design or strategy), but not pricing for each commodity (scoring for each element). It sounds ridiculous when one demands $50 per hour for delivering phone books simply because he is a certified medical practitioner. Similarly, it doesn't make sense when one should be punished more simply because he can easily produce a different type of jump. My point is: An opportunity cost shall have nothing to do with scoring.

[Mathman]

I believe that the question of loss of opportunity is somewhat of a red herring in any case.

Loss of opportunity attaches into the decision to try a jump on which you might fall, not to the fall itself.

I think the right question is this. You have already decided, for better or for worse, to try a triple Axel. If you fall, how many fewer points do you get than if you had done the same exact jump but saved the landing?

(a) Fully rotated, satisfactory in every respect, +1 GOE (undeserved, but hey! it's a triple Axel!) 9.5

Same except for a fall at the end. 4.5

(b) Under-rotated, OK otherwise (-1 GOE). 5.0

Same with a fall. 2.0

(c) Downgraded, -2 GOE. 2.3

Same with a fall. 0.8

So...yes, in a close contest this could be the diffrerence between winning and losing.

Still, it seems to me that in the past falls were weighted more heavily. At the 2002 Olympics Michele Kwan fell. Irina Slutskaya teetered and tottered and somehow managed to stay on her feet. Otherwise, Kwan skated OK and Slutskaya was terrible. Slutskaya won (getting 5.9's in presentation from the Russian, Belarussian and Slovakian judges for presentation. )

Ah, the good old days. If Michelle had not fallen Slutskaya's presentation marks would have been lower and Michelle would have won the gold medal. Moral of the story: don't fall.

[Mathman]

[Edited to add]: Moral of the CoP: If you fall, make it up in other ways.

[Tonichelle]

yes but the judges had to be careful during the ladies anyway... and Kwan's program was so watered down compared to others IIRC that it was more than just the fall...

[Mathman]

^ Well, Michelle only had to beat Irina, not Sarah.

Irina did 3Lz+2Lo (intended 3-3)
A weird sequence that stared with a 3S then a few hoppy doubles (intended to be a 3-3 sequence, I think)
3Lz (slight two-foot?)
3Lo (excellent)
3F (wild landing)
2A
3T

Michelle did 3Lo
3T+2T (intended 3-3, but double-footed the first landing)
3Lz+2Lo
2A
3F (fall)
3S
3Lz
3T (to make up for the missed 3T+3T)

So take away the fall on the flip and their jump content seems about the same.

By the way, I just re-watched Slutskaya's performance and it was much better than I remembered it. Not quite the speed she usually has, but not bad at all. Lots of dramatic hair-pulling and so on.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XqW0yv8j80E

[gardenernaga]

Now I found the online translation is very convenient but still often very misleading.
I'll give you the rough traslation.

確かに右足首の捻挫の回復状況が読めないからなんとも
捻挫と言えば無理しなければ2週間程度で完治なんだろうけど程度にもよるし
ロシア杯1週間前に捻挫してロシアに着いた時点で腫れていて試合に出たんだからなあ…

Nobody really knows the recovery situation of the right ankle sprain, so you cannot tell...
Generally speaking, a sprain is healed completely within 2 weeks or so, but it depends...
Sprained 1 week before Cup of Russia, having swollen at the point of arrival in Russia, he appeared in the tournament, therefore it was,…I guess.

今日はクワドは跳んでなかったという噂あり
ジュニアの頃もジャンプ一切封印、ひたすらスケーティングしてたことあったね
いい機会じゃない？

There is some rumor that he did not practice quads today.
When he was still in junior, sometimes he did not practice any jumps and brushed up only his skating skills.
This time is also good opportunity to brush up SS, isn't it ?”

[ImaginaryPogue]

LADIES
1. The first step to the RBB’s plans to dominate the world scene by Sochi is underway. I’m not sure what other people’s expectations were. I generally thought that Adelina, as the older, more successful skater last season, was the one people assumed would dominate. But it turned out that the steadier skates of Tuktamisheva was the one to do so (and yes, I’ve learned to spell her name. We’ll need to know how) – which is interesting when you recall she was rather inconsistent on the junior circuit last year (especially in the short program). So, of course, all the early heat goes to Tuktamisheva. It’s worth recalling, though, that the opening salvo from the ladies narrative of the last quad was not with Kim or Asada winning (back to back junior champions) but Miki Ando winning in Tokyo. So just because she’s the early winner here doesn’t necessarily translate to later victories. I have to admit, I’d almost like to see Russian Nationals marked with international judges just to compare the level of skating to Worlds/Euros/4CC. The event will be fascinating.

2. For more than one reason, of course. Leonova has had a strong season. Very few skaters seem to understand their own strengths and weaknesses as clearly as she does, and man, does she sell what she’s got. Makarova on the other hand.... massive struggle so far. The biggest difficulty facing the Russian ladies is keeping that third slot. Leonova has bought herself some time thanks to her success, but Marakova.... not so much. If Leonova + two other ladies (don’t know which) don’t get that third slot back.... well, the penultimate season before the Olympics will be nervewracking.

3. The American ladies, once again, tell a fascinating tale. Hollywood melodramas are written on cheaper stuff then this. You have the old pro who’s upped her game in a BIG way technically (Czisny). You’ve got the one that’s always left behind chomping ferociously at the bit (Wagner). You’ve got extremely talented-when-she-gonna-make it skater (Nagasu). You’ve got the one that some might call “washed-up” (Flatt/Zhang, and I apologize, I’m going for the hokey melodrama aspect, here). You’ve got a slew of young talents that are just waiting for that one moment (Zawadski, Gao, Lam, Gold, others). You’ve got the one who won’t be there (Hicks).

If anything, this GP season told us that those who get the top two spots are going to EARN it. They’re not gonna luck into it by the grace of someone else’s mistakes. Or solely do that anyway. I’m basically rooting for Czisny and Wagner.

4. I’m very curious what Orser does with Phanuef. Realistically, her only challenge will come from LaCoste, but will there be any real improvements? Phaneuf is a skater who, if clean, should be a top ten skater every time at bat. Her skates certainly don’t give one confidence, but her realization that something needed to be done does.

5. I’m just gonna echo the general love Suzuki has been receiving. How awesome for her to win NHK! How wonderful for her to land her first competitive 3-3! Few skaters convey such joy on the ice. Here’s hoping she wins Nationals.

[Layfan]

LADIES
1. The first step to the RBB’s plans to dominate the world scene by Sochi is underway. I’m not sure what other people’s expectations were. I generally thought that Adelina, as the older, more successful skater last season, was the one people assumed would dominate. But it turned out that the steadier skates of Tuktamisheva was the one to do so (and yes, I’ve learned to spell her name. We’ll need to know how) – which is interesting when you recall she was rather inconsistent on the junior circuit last year (especially in the short program). So, of course, all the early heat goes to Tuktamisheva. It’s worth recalling, though, that the opening salvo from the ladies narrative of the last quad was not with Kim or Asada winning (back to back junior champions) but Miki Ando winning in Tokyo. So just because she’s the early winner here doesn’t necessarily translate to later victories. I have to admit, I’d almost like to see Russian Nationals marked with international judges just to compare the level of skating to Worlds/Euros/4CC. The event will be fascinating.

2. For more than one reason, of course. Leonova has had a strong season. Very few skaters seem to understand their own strengths and weaknesses as clearly as she does, and man, does she sell what she’s got. Makarova on the other hand.... massive struggle so far. The biggest difficulty facing the Russian ladies is keeping that third slot. Leonova has bought herself some time thanks to her success, but Marakova.... not so much. If Leonova + two other ladies (don’t know which) don’t get that third slot back.... well, the penultimate season before the Olympics will be nervewracking.

3. The American ladies, once again, tell a fascinating tale. Hollywood melodramas are written on cheaper stuff then this. You have the old pro who’s upped her game in a BIG way technically (Czisny). You’ve got the one that’s always left behind chomping ferociously at the bit (Wagner). You’ve got extremely talented-when-she-gonna-make it skater (Nagasu). You’ve got the one that some might call “washed-up” (Flatt/Zhang, and I apologize, I’m going for the hokey melodrama aspect, here). You’ve got a slew of young talents that are just waiting for that one moment (Zawadski, Gao, Lam, Gold, others). You’ve got the one who won’t be there (Hicks).

If anything, this GP season told us that those who get the top two spots are going to EARN it. They’re not gonna luck into it by the grace of someone else’s mistakes. Or solely do that anyway. I’m basically rooting for Czisny and Wagner.

4. I’m very curious what Orser does with Phanuef. Realistically, her only challenge will come from LaCoste, but will there be any real improvements? Phaneuf is a skater who, if clean, should be a top ten skater every time at bat. Her skates certainly don’t give one confidence, but her realization that something needed to be done does.

5. I’m just gonna echo the general love Suzuki has been receiving. How awesome for her to win NHK! How wonderful for her to land her first competitive 3-3! Few skaters convey such joy on the ice. Here’s hoping she wins Nationals.

That's a nice and insightful thing to say about Leonova. Maybe that is why I can't help but appreciate her even though her style is not my favorite. I have to appreciate that she is usually true to herself. Only thing is her LP this year doesn't seem to suit her as much as her other programs have. I feel that in this case either she and or her coaches are trying to prove that she can be something that she just isn't. However, as you note, she has been successful so far, so what do I know?

[skatinginbc]

Loss of opportunity attaches into the decision to try a jump on which you might fall, not to the fall itself.

Exactly, opportunity cost is considered when an individual makes strategic planning (e.g., jump layout) for oneself. It varies across individuals and shall not influence the decision of interested outsiders (e.g, judges, scoring system designers). It is different from the cost to a fall itself, which is reported to the public and shall remain stable across individuals.

[SkateFiguring]

I would like to analyse what we can expect form the Men from the perspective of how much each was affected by the Japan disasters, a postponed Worlds, and a short summer.

Abbott is the least affected by these events since he didn't go to Worlds. He definitely has had a very advantageous head start since 4CC, even taking into account his sorting out his skating boot problems which contributed to his serious underperformances last season. With this issue resolved, and if his new coaches and programs really do help to soothe his nerves, he can be expected to show us much improved perfromances and competitiveness. So far this seems to be the case. However, with such advantages, he should have been way ahead of other competitors instead of winning by default in one event and hanging on to a third place in another. That said, he has beautiful programs and skating skills and is a real threat if he could land his jumps. It's all about the jump success for him.

Fernandez went to Worlds but he had the summer to devote to his training under the guidance of a new and excellent coach. He is happy and renewed. Though he was one of the best jumpers in the world and exhibited charm and showmanship, he has never been near any international podium outside of B events, until this season. What a breakout! He is certainly catching everybody's attention and suddenly a real contender. Will such spectacular success boost his confidence to continue his progress and occupy a permenant top tier seat? Very likely. He seems to be mentally strong and grounded, accepting his success happily rather than being full of self doubts. His weaknesses are spins and the PCS, boosted but still quite a way from the top few skaters. His winning chances depend on his TES and some errors from the front runners.

Brezina also went to Worlds and had a relatively free summer but he had an injury issue which probably robbed him of some training. He is another sensational jumper but his stamina fails him regularly and has kept him just off the Worlds podium two years in a row. With a more generous PCS this season and a little luck on the back of Kozuka, he won SA with a poor LP. He can be expected to do well in the SP but to fall behind in the LP when facing the big guys in the same competition.

Hanyu, the baby of the bunch, 10 years Abbott's junior, is an exceptional talent. He was most directly affected by the disasters in Japan, having to evacuate his training rink when the earthquake hit. However, he didn't compete at Worlds, and with the tenacity of his youth, greatly improved all aspects of his skating over the summer and is a new shinning star in the figure skating world. He still needs to mature in his Program Components, but currently his biggest problem is his physical condition. With asthma, he regularly runs out of steam midway through his Long Program. Like Brezina, he will likely dazzle in the SP but give way in the LP segment of the competition. He needs "help" from the strong competitors.

Takahashi, the former World Champ, comes back from a subsequent poor season with a renewed knee and motivation. I think the disasters really affected the Japanese skaters badly, with Kozuka and Oda both out of GPF. They went to the delayed Worlds after the devastating events in their homeland, and spent much of the shortened summer doing benefit shows to raise funds for and morale of their countryfolks. The psychological effect and short training time showed up in their unreadiness in early season, putting GPF chances for all of them in jeopardy and pitting Takahashi against Kozuka in front of a home crowd for a spot in the GPF. Takahashi won that round soundly after a poor showing in JO and a weak performance in SC. His NHK performances were so impressive he once again gains high expectation from skating fans. Will his projectory continue or has he peaked early like last year when he did his best at NHK? With his knee surgery completed and his motivation rejuvenated, Takahashi is a different competitor from last year both mentally and physically. I expect him to get monstrous PCS but much depends on his TES which were rather dismal last season. Takahashi is a humble hero, but a hero he is and he always rises to the occasion in front of his adoring and extremely supportive subjects at home. But the hero is humble and very hard on himself, allowing himself to win only when he think he deserves it. His work ethics actually hurts him sometimes. As well metaphyically speaking, he can be said to manifest dramas when he can't win. Right now, many believe he will repeat his NHK brilliance and win the GPF, a title he has not yet had in his distinguished career.

Chan, the reigning World Champion, did not suffer the kind of psychological impact his Japanese rivals did. But he had the least time to train in the summer following the late Worlds. Instead of just doing the All That Skate in Korea as in previous summers, he also did the Artistry On Ice in China this year. In between these shows in far away Asia, he stayed in Singapore with relatives. He hardly had any time to work on his new ultra difficult LP. His JO and the two GP events incurred falls. He is being called inconsistent and his winning chances discounted by some, or grudgingly granted with expectation of more faulty performances. I figure and hope he has used up his slippery ice factors for this season. His falls in SC were caused by two fluky stumbles during entries into jumps. I expected he would have caught up with the missed training by TEB but he had a poor showing due to illness, winning the event at which just about all competitors skated like they were sick. Chan is mentally very strong, overcoming and learning from each adverse circumstance. Breaking LP record last Worlds when he was unwell and winning TEB last month with a fever show how tough a competitor he is. Under normal conditions, I expect him to rise to his own standard at the GPF. He actually has the most upside from his scores so far this season. It was also at the same event last year he began skating clean programs for the rest of the season. Whether he will show the same amazing projectory as last year and introduce a new quad after the GPF remains to be seen. If he does it successfully, he will once again blow everybody away.