GP Final Analysis and Predictions

[pangtongfan]

Takahashi (NHK) still got outscored by Chan (SC) even with two falls.

Just further evidence of how ridiculously overscored Chan is. Probably the most overscored skater in figure skating history. I dont even get bothered by his marks anymore, I just laugh at them. No skater in history, including many with better technical abilities and artistry than Chan, have been allowed 20% the mistakes he does and still winning everything.

Anyway for this one event I and some others just happen to be predicting enough problems for him and a strong enough skate by someone else to overcome this excessive bias from the Chan orgasm groupies (aka judges). Will it turn out that way? We will just have to wait and see.

[mylastduchess]

Just further evidence of how ridiculously overscored Chan is. Probably the most overscored skater in figure skating history. I dont even get bothered by his marks anymore, I just laugh at them. No skater in history, including many with better technical abilities and artistry than Chan, have been allowed 20% the mistakes he does and still winning everything.

Anyway for this one event I and some others just happen to be predicting enough problems for him and a strong enough skate by someone else to overcome this excessive bias from the Chan orgasm groupies (aka judges). Will it turn out that way? We will just have to wait and see.

Well maybe actually look at actual evidence and see, Chan landed all his jump except 1 in SC (including a 3A, and a quad triple) that with Takahashi`s non existant quad, I know people here just doesn`t want Chan to win but but c`mon I`m tired of the inflation wine train.

[Mirunna]

I believe the ladies podium will consist of Mao, Akiko and Liza, in any order. If they go clean, Mao-Akiko-Liza or Akiko-Mao-Liza will be the order. I don't see Carolina or Alissa making the podium, Alissa because she needs to skate clean both in Sp and Lp(so far she had a mini meltdown, the LP in SA and the SP in TEB), Carolina because even if she is semi-clean, there is not enough content to overtake a clean Mao, Akiko, Liza or Alissa. I'm curious to see how will Liza handle the pressure to skate last in the SP. So far it was all fun for her, the newcomer skating in the first group, landing stuff and putting pressure on the others. Now she is the first qualifier to the GPF and some expect her to win. Adelina didn't make it, now it's her chance to show she is Russia nr 1. She can do it, she is a tough competitor, but I'm afraid sooner or later the pressure will get to her.

[Layfan]

Liza has been such a tough competitor this year. It has been so exciting to watch her. She is far from perfect but, wow, what a talent. I just have loved seeing a lady with such fire again. I think she really has energized the ladies field. Adelina, too, even if she didn't make the GP final. She still proved she is a top competitor.

Akiko has also been a wonderful surprise this year. Well, I am not surprised that I love her skating but I love it that she has done so well and is going for the 3x3.

I think Carolina and Alissa could still beat Liza and Akiko but they have to be perfect, pretty much. Or at least near perfect.

It's going to be a much more enjoyable GP ladies Final for me than last year. I enjoy watching these ladies.

Everyone's predictions seem right to me.

3. Akiko

I hope Mao wins and I think Liza will medal. but apart from that I can't bring myself to make any predictions or a dream podium, since I want Akiko, Carolina and Alissa to medal almost equally.


i have a good feeling about Takahashi this season. He seems in great shape and relaxed. I don't know much about him personally but with a world gold and an Olympic bronze in the bag it seem to me he is in it now to push himself personally and just because he loves it. i think it makes him more relaxed and a good competitor.

I am going to go with him for the gold and Patrick for the silver but if Patrick is clean he will win for sure. I don't have a good feeling about Jeremy but fingers crossed that he will prove me wrong and skates his lights out and snags a medal.

I pretty much like all of the men in this comp and would be happy for any of them medaling.

[draqq]

1. Chan
2. Takahashi
3. Fernandez
4. Hanyu
5. Abbott
6. Brezina

- Jet lag may take a toll on Takahashi, as Chan and Fernandez both train in Canada. But Takahashi only plans one quad, and the rest of his program is triples, which he can do in his sleep. Chan's place at the top is quite precarious, though. He hasn't been able to perform a clean quad and triple axel in any program consistently thus far, and the other skaters in the pack (namely, Takahashi, Fernandez, and Abbott) have considerably narrowed the gap between Chan's and their PCS. Fernandez is in third position because of his athleticism and I believe his stamina will return in time for the GPF.

As much as I want Abbott to win, he has to nail all of his jumps and triple-toe combinations to be considered for medal contention. Brezina and Hanyu are jumping powerhouses but will need to be foot perfect to get into the top 3.

1. Tuktamisheva
2. Asada
3. Kostner
4. Czisny
5. Suzuki
6. Leonova

- Tuktamisheva could easily win with her technical prowess and consistency. Even Asada has trouble with her edge calls and she has been fragile overseas. Her short program may not be good enough to get into the top 3. Kostner has the edge on Czisny in terms of her jump consistency even if it's easier content. Czisny just has too many problems with getting the height on her jumps and frequently gets an under-rotation call or 0's in GOE. Her transitions in the free aren't strong this year.

So as much as I'm a fan of her skating, I can see Suzuki and Leonova slipping past her in jumping alone. The judges, though, like her spins and general balletic artistry. I'm actually surprised that her choreographers don't incorporate more of her spirals in the transitions.

Suzuki is the dark horse and can achieve a second-place finish if she can keep up her cheer and stamina and not double her second triple lutz.

Pairs
1. Savchenko/Szolkowy
2. Kavaguti/Smirnov
3. Volosozhar/Trankov
4. Zhang/Zhang
5. Duhamel/Radford
6. Takahashi/Tran

- Not really much to say here. It's S/S's event to win or lose, mainly whether they chose to go for the unnecessary throw triple axel.

Dance
1. Davis/White
2. Virtue/Moir
3. Pechalat/Bourzat
4. Weaver/Poje
5. Bobrova/Soloviev
6. Shibutani/Shibutani

As other have predicted, Virtue/Moir will likely win the short dance with their strength in Latin dances through their interpretation and hip movement. But their transitions mark in the free program will hurt them and Davis/White can easily slip ahead of them with their complex holds.

The rest of the teams fall in line rather easily based on their prior match-ups this season. Pechalat/Bourzat have deeper edges and a stronger theme than Weaver/Poje, who have higher technical difficulty than Bobrova/Soloviev, who have better transitions than the Shibutani's.

[Layfan]

1. Chan
2. Takahashi
3. Fernandez
4. Hanyu
5. Abbott
6. Brezina

- Jet lag may take a toll on Takahashi, as Chan and Fernandez both train in Canada. But Takahashi only plans one quad, and the rest of his program is triples, which he can do in his sleep. Chan's place at the top is quite precarious, though. He hasn't been able to perform a clean quad and triple axel in any program consistently thus far, and the other skaters in the pack (namely, Takahashi, Fernandez, and Abbott) have considerably narrowed the gap between Chan's and their PCS. Fernandez is in third position because of his athleticism and I believe his stamina will return in time for the GPF.

As much as I want Abbott to win, he has to nail all of his jumps and triple-toe combinations to be considered for medal contention. Brezina and Hanyu are jumping powerhouses but will need to be foot perfect to get into the top 3.

1. Tuktamisheva
2. Asada
3. Kostner
4. Czisny
5. Suzuki
6. Leonova

- Tuktamisheva could easily win with her technical prowess and consistency. Even Asada has trouble with her edge calls and she has been fragile overseas. Her short program may not be good enough to get into the top 3. Kostner has the edge on Czisny in terms of her jump consistency even if it's easier content. Czisny just has too many problems with getting the height on her jumps and frequently gets an under-rotation call or 0's in GOE. Her transitions in the free aren't strong this year.

So as much as I'm a fan of her skating, I can see Suzuki and Leonova slipping past her in jumping alone. The judges, though, like her spins and general balletic artistry. I'm actually surprised that her choreographers don't incorporate more of her spirals in the transitions.

Suzuki is the dark horse and can achieve a second-place finish if she can keep up her cheer and stamina and not double her second triple lutz.

Pairs
1. Savchenko/Szolkowy
2. Kavaguti/Smirnov
3. Volosozhar/Trankov
4. Zhang/Zhang
5. Duhamel/Radford
6. Takahashi/Tran

- Not really much to say here. It's S/S's event to win or lose, mainly whether they chose to go for the unnecessary throw triple axel.

Dance
1. Davis/White
2. Virtue/Moir
3. Pechalat/Bourzat
4. Weaver/Poje
5. Bobrova/Soloviev
6. Shibutani/Shibutani

As other have predicted, Virtue/Moir will likely win the short dance with their strength in Latin dances through their interpretation and hip movement. But their transitions mark in the free program will hurt them and Davis/White can easily slip ahead of them with their complex holds.

The rest of the teams fall in line rather easily based on their prior match-ups this season. Pechalat/Bourzat have deeper edges and a stronger theme than Weaver/Poje, who have higher technical difficulty than Bobrova/Soloviev, who have better transitions than the Shibutani's.

I don't know that Kostner has the edge on Czisny in terms of jump consitency. She SHOULD, given her better jumping technique and power and easier content but Carolina somehow is just as prone to stumbles. Still, she does outskate Alissa in terms of speed and power, easily. Plus, so far, she has shown more joy in her LP than Alissa. you can see alissa thinking more than Carolina. it goes without saying that Alissa has the edge over Caro when it comes to lines and spins. In the end, I think a clean Alissa edges a clean Caro this season because of her higher tech content and the extra tech points she should get for her spins.

I don't see Akiko as the dark horse. It is tempting to think of Akiko and Alena as dark horses because Alissa and Carolina are the defending gold and silver medalists but Akiko and Alena have done so well this season. I don't think there is really a dark horse. I wouldn't be shocked at any outcome. (Well, okay, I will be surprised if Mao and Liza don't medal but it'll come down to the performance. There is no Yuna-type overwhelming favorite in this competition but there are six ladies who have all made a case for themselves this series.)

[ImaginaryPogue]

1. Chan
2. Takahashi
3. Fernandez
4. Hanyu
5. Abbott
6. Brezina

- Jet lag may take a toll on Takahashi, as Chan and Fernandez both train in Canada. But Takahashi only plans one quad, and the rest of his program is triples, which he can do in his sleep. Chan's place at the top is quite precarious, though. He hasn't been able to perform a clean quad and triple axel in any program consistently thus far, and the other skaters in the pack (namely, Takahashi, Fernandez, and Abbott) have considerably narrowed the gap between Chan's and their PCS. Fernandez is in third position because of his athleticism and I believe his stamina will return in time for the GPF.

As much as I want Abbott to win, he has to nail all of his jumps and triple-toe combinations to be considered for medal contention. Brezina and Hanyu are jumping powerhouses but will need to be foot perfect to get into the top 3.

1. Chan trains in Colorado, but your point still stands

2. Takahashi's consistently hit with multiple urs, which eats away at his TES. I wouldn't assert he could do a one quad, 7 (8?) triple program in his sleep.

[NorthernDancers]

Ok.... I'll make some predictions now that we have had a chance to see all of these skaters....

MEN'S
1. Chan - he's just that amazing a skater, and I have a feeling he will get those jumps under control this time
2. Takahashi - love watching his skating; if he skates clean, he can beat Chan when he isn't having a good day
3. Fernandez - LOVE his progress this year, and he is such a great personality
4. Hanyu
5. Abbott - although he could move up to 3rd or 4th on a really good weekend
6. Brezina

WOMEN'S
1. Tuktamesheva - simply because she is the most consistent technically, and has so much fire about her
2. Asada - she's looking very strong this season
3. Kostner - she is having a great season. She could move up to 2nd or 1st if she skates very clean and the others don't.
4. Czisny - she is so absolutely elegant, and when she's on, she's on.... she also could land anywhere on the podium
5. Suzuki
6. Leonova

PAIRS
1. Savchenko/Szolkowy - they are continuing to improve throughout the season, and I think they are the most innovate team
2. Kavaguti/Smirnov - I still worry about how absolutely thin she is, but they really do look lovely together this season
3. Volosozhar/Trankov - I do think their programs are a little "over done", but they have done well this season, and I really think any of these top 3 can finish in any order
4. Zhang/Zhang - I don't think they will find the podium here or at worlds this year
5. Duhamel/Radford - I'm trying to like them. There is just something off-putting about these 2 - and especially her.
6. Takahashi/Tran - I really wish Moore-Towers/Moscovitch were here instead. I think they are the better team. It would also be nice to have a preview of Nationals with the 2 top pair teams together with international judges. Ah well.... I think they were tied with Duhamel/Radford in points, so their scores mattered. Duhamel and Radford beat them by just 2 scores.

DANCE
1. Virtue/Moir - not just because I love them so much, but I really do think in competition together the differences between these 2 and Davis/White will be clear enough in both the SD and FD
2. Davis/White - no question the top 2 places will belong to Virtue/Moir and Davis/White in some order. Both teams are in their own league, different competition
3. Weaver/Poje - assuming they skate very clean, it will be a battle between them and Pechalat/Bourzat
4. Pechalat/Bourzat - my heart is with Weaver/Poje, but I do think either Weaver/Poje or Pechalat/Bourzat could finish on the podium behind the top 2. I like a lot of programs from the French team, including their program about clocks and time from a few years ago. I'm not a fan of their program this year. Last year's was much more watchable.
5. Shibutani/Shibutani - they really are very good technically. They are missing the creative and artistic edge of the teams ahead of them - the maturity.
6. Bobrova/Soloviev - I really think this team was over-marked both times. They do not have the technical quality of the teams ahead of them. All 5 of them are better than this team right now.

[pangtongfan]

I believe the ladies podium will consist of Mao, Akiko and Liza, in any order. If they go clean, Mao-Akiko-Liza or Akiko-Mao-Liza will be the order. I don't see Carolina or Alissa making the podium, Alissa because she needs to skate clean both in Sp and Lp(so far she had a mini meltdown, the LP in SA and the SP in TEB), Carolina because even if she is semi-clean, there is not enough content to overtake a clean Mao, Akiko, Liza or Alissa. I'm curious to see how will Liza handle the pressure to skate last in the SP. So far it was all fun for her, the newcomer skating in the first group, landing stuff and putting pressure on the others. Now she is the first qualifier to the GPF and some expect her to win. Adelina didn't make it, now it's her chance to show she is Russia nr 1. She can do it, she is a tough competitor, but I'm afraid sooner or later the pressure will get to her.

You think Akiko would win if they all skated cleanly? Interesting.

[jettasian]

Just further evidence of how ridiculously overscored Chan is. Probably the most overscored skater in figure skating history. I dont even get bothered by his marks anymore, I just laugh at them. No skater in history, including many with better technical abilities and artistry than Chan, have been allowed 20% the mistakes he does and still winning everything.

Anyway for this one event I and some others just happen to be predicting enough problems for him and a strong enough skate by someone else to overcome this excessive bias from the Chan orgasm groupies (aka judges). Will it turn out that way? We will just have to wait and see.

And I just laugh at your post. Too funny, you should do comedy.

[DianaSelene]

And I just laugh at your post. Too funny, you should do comedy.

You have this soft spot for Chan and take every comment so seriously. Just can't get over it, can you?

[Mrs. P]

Well I'll just post my predictions.

Women
1. Mao — Her programs have it this year. She seems a lot happier and confident and she has the highest LP score for the GP.
2. Liza — The girl has nerves of skills and the great tech. She might lose a segment to someone else (per what happened in SC and TEB) but I'm placing my bets that she ends up with silver.
3. Akiko — The judges (and I!) absolutely love her programs this year. She has improved on her Lutz, doing hard content on her SP (which has held her back in the past) and of course her performance is bar none. She's won bronze at GPF before, so it would be fun if she got silver or even won the whole thing.
4. Carolina — She has great programs this year but I don't think the judges will give her the podium if Mao-Liza-Akiko skate well.
5. Alissa — She can be on the podium, but I think she'll feel some pressure being the reigning GPF champion.
6. Alena — To be honest, she's overscored her way to the GPF, so perhaps she could overscore her way to the podium, but I'm not betting on it.

Men

1. Takahashi - Chan clearly is looking to peak for Canadians and Worlds, so I wouldn't be surprise if Dice-K sneaked in for the win.
2. Chan — That said, Chan will likely get at least a silver, if he doesn't win it all.
3. Fernandez — Great TES will get him on the podium.
4. Jeremy — I so want him to get on the podium but he keeps making little mistakes in the LP.
5. Yuzuru — He has the goods to get on the podium too, but the stamina issue might come into play.
6. Brenzia — He started so strong in his Skate America SP, but has been playing it safe since and it doesn't seem to be working...

Pairs
1. S/S - I think they still want to do the 3A throw, but they won't do it here and they can easily win without it with those fabulous programs.
2. V/T - The judges really like this team and I like them to, but I'm eh on their programs.
3 K/S - Great programs, but I can see them making little mistakes that will keep them from winning it all.
4. Z/Z - I think this team has done well this season and I like their programs, but the judges haven't quite responded to them yet.
5. D/R - Wish MT/M was in instead of this team. They are a power team, but something about them doesn't work for me.
6. T/T - Beautiful team, but she can not jump to save her life.

Dance.
1. D/W - Really a toss up, but the judges seem to really like their FD this year and I think they could edge V/M with it.
2. V/M - They seem to have some levels they're not hitting. If those levels are achieved, it will be really close.
3. P/B - The judges are giving them a slight edge this year, and I agree. They have really grown as a team over the last decade and I think the podium will be their fruit.
4. S/S - This is a bit of a dream pick, but they seem to be able to adjust quickly to struggles/mistakes/issues. And I'm sure training with the No. 1 and No. 2 teams in the world also helps up their game a bit.
5. B/S - They have beat S/S but their outing at COR (before a home crowd no less) makes me wonder. Still, I wouldn't count them out for fourth or even medaling if P/B messes up.
6. W/P - They have the PCS to be up there and their programs are greatly improved, but their tech is a big question mark, esp. with the twizzles. On the other hand they had a great showing at COR, so there is some good momentum in their favor.

In general, places 4-6 have the potential to be close.

[draqq]

I don't know that Kostner has the edge on Czisny in terms of jump consitency. She SHOULD, given her better jumping technique and power and easier content but Carolina somehow is just as prone to stumbles. Still, she does outskate Alissa in terms of speed and power, easily. Plus, so far, she has shown more joy in her LP than Alissa. you can see alissa thinking more than Carolina. it goes without saying that Alissa has the edge over Caro when it comes to lines and spins. In the end, I think a clean Alissa edges a clean Caro this season because of her higher tech content and the extra tech points she should get for her spins.

I don't see Akiko as the dark horse. It is tempting to think of Akiko and Alena as dark horses because Alissa and Carolina are the defending gold and silver medalists but Akiko and Alena have done so well this season. I don't think there is really a dark horse. I wouldn't be shocked at any outcome. (Well, okay, I will be surprised if Mao and Liza don't medal but it'll come down to the performance. There is no Yuna-type overwhelming favorite in this competition but there are six ladies who have all made a case for themselves this series.)

If Kostner makes a stumble, she usually still fully rotates her jumps. She's got cat's feet in that way, though she is just as prone to doubling a jump (usually one) in a program. The judges usually look at transitions more than lines and, as it stands, Alissa's transitions into the jumps are long setups. Carolina can execute a 2A+3T and strong, high jumps when she lands them. That said, they're quite neck and neck.

I see Akiko Suzuki as a dark horse outside of Japan. Her interpretation and expressiveness are her tickets, but the judges look for transitions, line, and power more than exuberance. Not that I think that's particularly fair or correct - just the way it is. I feel that Leonova is in the same boat (I actually think her SP is overmarked because she stands around so much in the footwork sequence). Both, though, have a seemingly solid 3T+3T that will serve them well compared to the other skaters (except for Tuktamisheva).

[draqq]

1. Chan trains in Colorado, but your point still stands

2. Takahashi's consistently hit with multiple urs, which eats away at his TES. I wouldn't assert he could do a one quad, 7 (8?) triple program in his sleep.

I was mainly talking about his triples. The quad isn't his strong suit by any means and he almost always gets some kind of downgrade on it. His triples are usually sound, though he has been caught with some minor downgrades in both his free skates. But even if they're downgraded slightly, he still doesn't pop them, so he gets a large portion of partial credit.

[gmyers]

Men
I believe it was last seaons GPF that Chan started his no fall streak

1-Chan
2-Takahashi
3-Fernandez
4-Hanyu
5-Abbott
6-Brezina

Ladies
Liza has not won a free skate! You put Suzuki and Czisny and Kostner all together and Liza really has to build up a BIG lead in the SP. Her previous troubles were always in the SP. There could be more pressure to do a perfect SP.

1-Kostner
2-Tuktamisheva
3-Suzuki
4-Czisny
5-Leonova
6-Asada

Pairs
S/S still have the edge

1-S/S
2-V/T
3-K/S
4-D/R
5-Z/Z
6-T/T

Dance

VM and DW are obvious Gold and silver in whichever order. S/S are the team most likely to have high levels and not make a mistake. B/S is most likely to have

1-D/W
2-V/M
3-S/S
4-P/B
5-W/P
6-B/S