2012 US Nationals Ladies- Top 5?

eyria said:

Not sure I agree with this. How do you see the world ladies' field being deeper right now when, in fact, many people are talking about an overall regression in technical content on the ladies' side this season (excluding Tukt)? Honestly, I think the world ladies' field is not hugely impressive right now. To me this is evident from the relative ease not only of Tukt's victories but perhaps more so, Leonova's medals on the GP. Leonova certainly falls into the "pretty-good, potential medal contender" category you describe; she is a pretty average skater on the elite level, yet has had little trouble securing 2 GP medals and the GPF. To me her success speaks to the weakness of the field, not the depth.

As to depth on the U.S. ladies' side, I don't see it, at least among the senior ladies. Flatt, Zhang, and Zawadzki have all had 2+ years on the senior level but it's evident they're not going anywhere positive right now. And below them we have mostly first-year seniors or girls who may be lovely skaters but don't seem likely to win medals anytime soon (Siraj).

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Don't want to speak for gkelly, but from my perspective depth means more than World berths/placement. The fact is that you cannot get into the top 5 of the U.S. without all or at least the hardest of the triples.

Johnny Weir made an interesting point when he criticized Laura Lepisto's' bronze in 2010 -- he basically said that Laura's jump content would not get her out of sectionals in the U.S:

Here's Laura's layout from Worlds:
3T-3T
3Z
2Lo+2T
2A
2L
2A
2S+2T+2T

Compare this to the FS of Sophia Adams, who had the lowest qualifying score for Nationals:
3S-2T
1L
2T
3L (UR)
2A-1T
3S
2A

Laura's layout is better because of the 3Z and 3-3, but not by much.

The only statement I would agree with eyria is that we don't have the World medal contender field that we used to, but that is not the same as saying that the U.S. Ladies skater program does not have depth. In my opinion, only Japan and Russia have deeper Ladies fields. I can say with great confidence that the top 5 in U.S. could easily beat the top 5 of most other countries.

ETA: To clarify, I'm strictly talking about Laura's jump content, not her PCS scores. I understand that she has great skating skills and speed.

i thinking for senior ladies

1) alissa


2-5 can be like this
leah, mirai, ashley, caroline zhang

that i would like
but rachel, agnes, yasmin, vanessa can break into it, more rachel and agnes.

i think my top 10 would be

1) alissa
2-5 ashley, mirai, rachel, leah
6 caroline zhang
7-10 vanessa lam, yasmin, agnes, christina gao

At the Olympics last year, the U.S. ladies were given zero chance of winning and low chance of the podium. I don't remember the last time that has happened. That is pretty much the situtation with Worlds. There hasn't been a U.S. lady on the World podium since 2006.

Ahhh, and just think if Alissa is finally the one to do it for us(A)! It truly would be poetic justice...

what does everyone think about juniors? my picks are:

1. gracie gold
2. hannah miller
3. barbie long
4. mariah bell

i also think 2-4 can be in any order. but being how hannah competed a great sp and okay lp at her jgp and a very good lp at sectionals, i think if she has 2 clean skates she'll definitely be 2nd. of course there's no question about gracie! barbie has the jumps, but her components are seriously lacking...and mariah is nice to watch but is struggling with her new triples.

i also skate with hannah and have the same coach. hannah is such a great skater and hard worker, and is also very nice and not full of herself. i still can't believe my coach is now the coach of a national champion and one of the friends i skate with IS a national champion! extremely cool. go LSC!

^Extremely cool indeed!

Mrs. P said:

Don't want to speak for gkelly, but from my perspective depth means more than World berths/placement. The fact is that you cannot get into the top 5 of the U.S. without all or at least the hardest of the triples.

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Ironically, you can beat any of the top 5 in the US without the hardest of triples.

Joking aside, almost everyone in the top 5 at Nationals for nearly 20 years has been capable of doing a lutz. It's the PCS where are girls (outside Alyssa) are not measuring up, and where we are getting left behind.

Hmm.. haven't posted in a while, but I'm gonna go ahead and be daring by predicting the whole field:

1. Czisny/Wagner
2. Wagner/Czisny
3. Keiser
4. Nagasu
5. Zhang
6. Wang
7. Siraj
8. Cesario
9. Zawadzki
10. Jiang
11. Gao
12. Lam
13. Flatt
14. Forte
15. Daniels
16. Baga
17. Dunne
18. Bell
19. Adams

Ashley seems to get decent marks at nationals, plus I love her programs this year. If Czisny has subpar skates, I could potentially see her taking the title. The USFS swoons over wunderkins, so I could see Keiser getting the bronze if she goes clean (she'll get big points for her 2A-3T and her 3Z-3T). Nagasu's the big question mark. She could place anywhere from first to fifth depending on which one of her shows up, but since she's prone to UR, had a bumpy GP season, and her LP is a snooze (which is really unfortunate) I'm going to predict fourth for her. Zhang seems to be on her way up from the rut she was in, so I'll predict a fifth place finish for her. Wang has a nice 3F-3T combo and decent presentation skills. If she's clean I could see her placing sixth. Siraj had solid qualifying scores, seventh seems about right for her. Cesario is a lovely, lovely skater, however she's also prone to UR. Her PCS should keep her up if she does UR some of her jumps. Zawadzki isn't looking too great this season. I hope she places higher, but she needs to gain consistency. Jiang has improved a ton since last year, so I could see her possibly making the top ten. I don't think Gao or Lam will be within the top ten this year because Gao's regressed both artistically and technically (she needs to work on her 2A, getting that third combo in there, and her spins) and Lam has super tiny jumps that have been marked as UR on the JGP series. I know this is highly unlikely, but I have this weird feeling that Flatt will either WD or skate poorly (although I do hope I'm wrong). She's certainly not getting the marks she used to and her consistency is no more. The rest is up for grabs, but I believe Forte will place above all of them considering she was at SA this year and could possibly get a couple of reputation points. Plus the girl's consistent.

Bold pics HC But I'd be ok with the result if Ashley comes in first. She really is good enough to win, she just has to believe it.

Here's my list.
1. Czisny
2. Wagner
3. Keiser
4. Nagasu
5. Flatt
6. Zhang
7. Wang
8. Forte
9 Lam
10. Cesario
11. Yasmin
12. Zawadzki
13. Gao
14. Jiang
15. Daniels
16. Baga
17. Dunne
18. Bell
19. Adams

I'm tired and have a headache from analyzing. Take it for what it is. =)

Copying over my post from FSU...

Merging the ISU international and Sectional/Regional scores (italicized below) of the field of 19 Senior Ladies scheduled to compete at 2012 Nationals (I've included Siraj's Regional and Sectional scores):

Short Program (season high scores):
64.26 Yasmin Siraj, New England Regional Oct. 2011 (3T+2T, 3Lz, 2A)
64.20 Alissa CZISNY USA ISU GP Hilton HHonors Skate America Oct. 2011
60.96 Mirai NAGASU USA ISU GP Cup of China Nov. 2011
58.11 Caroline Zhang, 58.11 Pacific Coast Sectional Nov. 2011 (3F+2T, 3Lo, 2A)
56.94 Leah Keiser, Pacific Coast Sectional Nov. 2011 (3Lz+3T fall, 3F, 2A)
55.88 Ashley WAGNER USA ISU GP NHK Trophy Nov. 2011
55.23 Angela Wang, Central Pacific Regional Oct. 2011 (3F+3T, 3Lz, 2A)
54.74 Samantha CESARIO USA ISU JGP Tallinn Cup Oct. 2011
54.47 Nina Jiang, Midwestern Sectional Nov. 2011 (3Lz, 2A, 3T+2T)
54.23 Rachael FLATT USA ISU GP Skate Canada International Oct. 2011
53.84 Agnes ZAWADZKI USA ISU GP NHK Trophy Nov. 2011
53.53 McKinzie Daniels, Midwestern Sectional Nov. 2011 (3Lo+2T, 3T, 2A)
52.26 Yasmin Siraj, Eastern Sectional Nov. 2011 (3T+2T, 2Lz, 2A)
51.99 Christina GAO USA ISU GP Cup of China Nov. 2011
50.36 Sophia Adams, Southwest Pacific Regional Oct. 2011 (3Lo, 3S+2T, 2A)
50.35 Vanessa LAM USA ISU JGP Austria 2011 Sept. 2011
50.29 Haley Dunne, Eastern Sectional Nov. 2011 (3F+2T, 3T, 2A)
50.03 Kiri Baga, Midwestern Sectional Nov. 2011 (3Lz fall out, 3T+2T, 2A)
49.96 Joelle Forte, Eastern Sectional Nov. 2011 (3Lz+2T, 3S, 2A)
48.37 Morgan Bell, Midwestern Sectional Nov. 2011 (2A, 3T+2T, popped 3S to single)

Free Skate (season high scores):
121.90 Alissa CZISNY USA ISU GP Trophee E. Bompard Nov. 2011
121.44 Yasmin Siraj, New England Regional Oct. 2011
115.28 Leah Keiser, Pacific Coast Sectional Nov. 2011
112.26 Mirai NAGASU USA ISU GP Cup of China Nov. 2011
110.98 Ashley WAGNER USA ISU GP Skate Canada International Oct. 2011
106.23 Vanessa LAM USA ISU JGP Austria Sept. 2011
105.34 Yasmin Siraj, Eastern Sectional Nov. 2011
105.12 Angela Wang, Pacific Coast Sectional Nov. 2011
102.09 Caroline Zhang, Pacific Coast Sectional Nov. 2011
101.62 Samantha CESARIO USA ISU JGP Baltic Cup Sept. 2011
100.49 Christina GAO USA ISU GP Cup of China Nov. 2011
99.97 Nina Jiang, Midwestern Sectional Nov. 2011
98.81 McKinzie Daniels, Midwestern Sectional Nov. 2011
95.57 Agnes ZAWADZKI USA ISU GP Rostelecom Cup Nov. 2011
95.18 Joelle Forte, Eastern Sectional Nov. 2011
94.27 Rachael FLATT USA ISU GP Rostelecom Cup Nov. 2011
93.11 Kiri Baga, Midwestern Sectional Nov. 2011
92.76 Haley Dunne, Eastern Sectional Nov. 2011
86.63 Morgan Bell, Midwestern Sectional Nov. 2011
82.60 Sophia Adams, Pacific Coast Sectional Nov. 2011

Mrs. P said:

From the Unseen Skaters page: <snip>

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Glad you found my 2012 U.S. Nationals page-in-progress, Mrs P! I'll be adding score tables for Senior, Junior and Novice, and as well more article links/skater info & stats in the weeks to come.

Spun Silver said:

Also, what about Kristine Musademba? She showed such promise at about 13, and had great showings as a junior, then got injured in (I believe) her first senior year.

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Kristine Musademba started full-time college this past fall -- at Columbia University, I believe. She took her academics seriously in high school and I'm glad she was able to compete once as a Senior at US Nationals (she placed 15th in 2011).

macy said:

what does everyone think about juniors? my picks are:

1. gracie gold
2. hannah miller
3. barbie long
4. mariah bell

i also think 2-4 can be in any order. but being how hannah competed a great sp and okay lp at her jgp and a very good lp at sectionals, i think if she has 2 clean skates she'll definitely be 2nd. of course there's no question about gracie! barbie has the jumps, but her components are seriously lacking...and mariah is nice to watch but is struggling with her new triples.

i also skate with hannah and have the same coach. hannah is such a great skater and hard worker, and is also very nice and not full of herself. i still can't believe my coach is now the coach of a national champion and one of the friends i skate with IS a national champion! extremely cool. go LSC!

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Gracie is very similar - not full of herself, just very driven to succeed, especially after shooting herself in the foot last season with stupid mistakes at Mids. I don't have the same coach as Gracie because personality-wise that would not work, but share the ice with her from time to time and all she does is work. I loved that she and Carley got to both go to Sectionals together and that she was so nervous for her twin.

mskater93 said:

Gracie is very similar - not full of herself, just very driven to succeed, especially after shooting herself in the foot last season with stupid mistakes at Mids. I don't have the same coach as Gracie because personality-wise that would not work, but share the ice with her from time to time and all she does is work. I loved that she and Carley got to both go to Sectionals together and that she was so nervous for her twin.

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Yeah I went to watch sectionals last year to watch Hannah at novice and 2 other girls I skate with at junior and I felt so bad for Gracie. By I don't doubt she works hard, she's come a long way the past 2 years. I was really impressed last year in the improvement in her jumps and artistry, and she got even better this year. Because not gonna lie, I thought she was very sloppy as a novice lol.

She was just getting control of her jumps two years ago. She went from no 2A or triples in July/August the summer before she finished 4th in Novice to adding them to the program as she attained them. It was cool because from week to week there were surprise additions almost.

Sylvia said:

Kristine Musademba started full-time college this past fall -- at Columbia University, I believe. She took her academics seriously in high school and I'm glad she was able to compete once as a Senior at US Nationals (she placed 15th in 2011).

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Thanks for the update, Sylvia. I still remember how good she was when I saw her win Novices at the S. Atlantic Regionals (I think - at Chelsea Piers in NYC). She went on to win 3 JGP events in 2008 and 2009. I felt she had a lot of potential, but it looks like she's multi-talented and I definitely want to wish her the best of everything! I hope she'll find some way to stay involved in skating.

Thanks also for the comprehensive SB scores. It looks like young Yasmin (another multi-talented skater - she also competes as a pianist) could be a factor in Ladies. She was a little firecracker last year.

mskater93 said:

She was just getting control of her jumps two years ago. She went from no 2A or triples in July/August the summer before she finished 4th in Novice to adding them to the program as she attained them. It was cool because from week to week there were surprise additions almost.

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Neat!

By the way, I think it's smart she's staying in juniors another year. No point of being in the mid-pack of seniors when you can win juniors and go to junior Worlds. That seems to be a more natural boost of confidence. Also, it allows her to be out of the limelight for at least another year and allow her to work on details of her program. (Ice Network mentiond that she's working to get a level 4 on her footwork, good for her!)

Mrs. P said:

Neat!

By the way, I think it's smart she's staying in juniors another year. No point of being in the mid-pack of seniors when you can win juniors and go to junior Worlds. That seems to be a more natural boost of confidence. Also, it allows her to be out of the limelight for at least another year and allow her to work on details of her program. (Ice Network mentiond that she's working to get a level 4 on her footwork, good for her!)

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i agree! just think of how much of a competition she'll put up next year when she's a senior, along with the other well-known juniors.

Also, her goal is a berth to JWs now. If she gets it AND IF she manages to medal there, it would put her in a good place to start a Senior career.

I still would have loved if Gracie was skating as a Senior at Nationals. It might give a kick in the *** to some of the older girls to either get it together or get out. To many of them are playing it safe with their jump layouts and if Gracie came in and did well it might make them stop playing it so safe. The jump difficulty these older ladies are doing isn't going to get them on the Olympic podium not by a long shot.