2012 US Nationals Ladies- Top 5?

Jammers said:

I still would have loved if Gracie was skating as a Senior at Nationals. It might give a kick in the *** to some of the older girls to either get it together or get out. To many of them are playing it safe with their jump layouts and if Gracie came in and did well it might make them stop playing it so safe. The jump difficulty these older ladies are doing isn't going to get them on the Olympic podium not by a long shot.

Click to expand...

The trend of the U.S. Ladies since Michelle is to advance to seniors as quickly as possible and while that hasn't been a problem in the past (after all Michelle was a U.S. and World champ at 15), I think Gracie's team is smart to pace her, especially after she did not make nationals last year.

If you read the "Gracie Gold" threads on FSU, or heck, some of the threads here, she's already getting flack for her "lack of maturity" and various nitpicks because of her relatively quick rise. Though she can't avoid all the hype/slack/criticism, for the most part she's still not getting even a fraction of what Caroline/Mirai got when they were juniors and I think that will help her in the long-term.

I think it also helps that she trains out of the Wagon Wheel FSC and not a big skating place like Broadmoor or Allyear.

After all, Sochi is still two years away. She will make a bigger splash debuting the year before than right now and I think her skill both tech/artistry is likely to be improved.

I watched some Gracie skates and can't deny her potential. Do I see something very special a la Kwan, Cohen, Lipinski? Not yet, but even a year can make a huge difference in performance/presentation. I wish her luck, and she's got a winning surname, if that hasn't been said already.

skateluvr said:

I watched some Gracie skates and can't deny her potential. Do I see something very special a la Kwan, Cohen, Lipinski? Not yet, but even a year can make a huge difference in performance/presentation. I wish her luck, and she's got a winning surname, if that hasn't been said already.

Click to expand...

Your thoughts support my reasoning. Why should she be subjected to comparisons already? If she came in seniors a la Kimmie, Mirai, Caroline and Christina and does super well, she's going to be subjected to comparisons to past skaters and the expectation of "the next big thing" is going to be slapped on her. At least Kimmie made the Olympics and won Worlds, but that hasn't quite worked out for the others.

Actually I think Gracie would actually do quite well if she competed in seniors and I'm not trying to be protectionist, but I think there are long-term benefits of pacing. She doesn't need to peak in 2012. She needs to peak at U.S. Nationals in 2014.

Mrs. P, you've nailed it specifically.

Jammer, what you fail to see here is that winning Junior Ladies at Nationals is a 99% guarantee of getting a spot on the JW team versus hoping you are one of the two best age eligible ladies in the Championship level and getting a spot (usually two Seniors and the Junior Champ are named, except when 3/4 medal winners in Senior were age ineligible for Senior Worlds). Part of the strategy would be to get to JWs and collect those ranking points (assuming she does well there) so she can step into Seniors with at least a small dose of good reputation.

Also, while you see the finished and decorated cake, you didn't see how hard it was to gather the ingredients into the bowl, so to speak. When the decision was made to stay Junior by Gracie and her team, maybe everything wasn't so consistent or easy as it seems now and there were things that needed to be worked on that were better to do in a Junior length program in their opinion. Maybe because of her drive to not get left behind again, those things came together quicker than expected.

Also, this seems to be the year she's hitting the technical side hard, but her PCS needs work to boost it to be equivalent (beyond her skating skills which are really incredible). It's expected of a Junior and the "marking on a curve" gives her a high PCS for a Junior but that score could be lower in Senior on a comparison scale as the maturity and ability to bring something to the program (IN and PE) is a skill that needs work in comparison to her TES and SS.