Ok - It's Time To Predict Us Nationals

[Piel]

Toni, you didn't happen to pick Michigan in the Rose Bowl and WVU in the Gator Bowl on New Year's day did you? :D

Using the magic 8 Ball method......

Ladies: Michelle
Sasha
Bebe

Men: Tim
Mike
Ryan

Pairs: S/D
I/B
???(even the 8 ball doesn't know everything)

Dance: B/A
L/T
G/P

Piel

[euterpe]

LADIES

Kwan is always prepared for Nationals, and we will see a more intense Tosca than we saw at the Cheesefest. Cohen is always a question mark mentally, but at least this year she isn't going in as the overwhelming favorite, which may help her somewhat. But I don't think we will see her first really clean FS at Nationals, and that's what she needs to win. Kirk, like Kwan, usually skates well at Nationals. If she can pull off another Skate America performance, she makes the World Team.

1. Kwan
2. Cohen
3. Kirk
4-6 Liang, Mok, McDonough in some order.

MEN

Big dependencies here. If Goebel has overcome his boot problems, he should take gold. If Weiss can recapture his Skate America form, he should make the podium. If Weir can overcome his nerves, he could challenge for silver, or gold if Goebel is still in boot limbo. I expect Goebel on the podium anyway, but Weiss has been so bad lately that he could miss altogether. Any of these men could be on the podium with two great skates: Smith, Lysacek, Jahnke, Savoie.

1. Goebel (boots OK)
2. Weir (head on straight)
3. Smith (two good skates)
4. Lysacek (two good skates)
5. Weiss (a mess)
6. Savoie (skating too cautiously due to pain)

PAIRS

Scott/Dulebohn won a medal at Lalique and all the talk was about restored confidence. Then the following week at Cup of Russia they had their worst performances of the season. TIME FOR A CHANGE!

1. Inoue/Baldwin - steadily improving
2. Scott/Dulebohn - steadily stagnating
3. Handy/Allen
4. Don/Hunt - Due to illness, he may not be ready for this
5. Orscher/Lucash
6. Hinzmann/Parchem

ICE DANCE

L/T won't be quite ready for this, but will make the World Team even if they are outskated by the improving Gregory/Petukhov. B/A have the momentum, and their GPF medal will grease the skids.

1. Belbin/Agosto
2. Lang/Tchernyshev
3. Gregory/Petukhov
4. Galler-Rabinowitz/Mitchell
5. Moxley/Kirsanov

[BronzeisGolden]

PAIRS
1. Scott & Dulebohn
2. Inoue & Baldwin
3. Orscher & Lucash

Although I was happy for their Grand Prix silver, I still find S&D to be lacking in excitement. I&B seem to be steadily improving and already skate with more gusto/fire than do S&D, but I imagine they'll make mistakes and settle for silver. S&D will get the job done again and nothing more.

MEN
1. Goebel
2. Weiss
3. Smith

I expect Timmy will have some problems and not skate perfectly, but he certainly should perform far better than he did at the 2003 Nationals. He will do enough to win. Weiss will not be clean, but will win the silver based on reputation and presentation. The bronze, somewhat like the ladies event, is a toss up but I'd be very pleased to see Scott Smith or Matt Savoie on the podium.

ICE DANCE
1. Belbin & Agosto
2. Lang & Tchernyshev
3. Gregory & Petukhov

They were so close to winning last year, I'd have to imagine there'd be no question that Belbin & Agosto will wear gold for 2004. They've had a stellar GP season and you know the USFSA has to be ecstatic over this. Barring a complete melt down, I can't see Belbin & Agosto walking away with anything less than gold. They are the "chosen ones" of U.S. Ice Dance. But, that is too bad for Lang & Tchernyshev. They have worked hard and improved so much over the past several years. And they seem like such nice people to boot! Who knows, though...anything could happen.

LADIES
1. Kwan
2. Cohen
3. Kirk
4. Liang
5. McDonough
6. Mok

WHO KNOWS! A complete guess! History has shown that Kwan is usually rock solid for Nationals and I hope that will be the case. However, Sasha is a complete wild card. The fact that she is so unpredictable makes Nationals extremely unpredictable. The judges are more than ready to give Sasha the marks and the win if she skates cleanly. But, if Michelle skates with the same intensity as last year with added choreography...who knows! AAARGH! This, hopefully, will be a great match up. I REALLY want Jenny to win the bronze. She is a beautiful girl with a beautiful heart and has been through so much. If Jenny has troubles, I'd be more than happy to see any of the other three girls mentioned make it. They are all lovely skaters with loads of talent!