Ok - It's Time To Predict Us Nationals

This year's Nationals are so difficult to predict!

Let's see...

Ladies
1. Michelle
2. Sasha
3. Jenny (I REALLY hope so!!)

Men
1. Mike
2. Tim (I really want him #1, but I think he'll struggle still)
3. ????

Dance
1. B&A
2. L&A
3. ????

Pairs
I couldn't care less. I think all our pairs are pretty lousy.

I am expecting one of the wildest and weirdest Nationals we've seen in years.

MEN -- Given Weiss' level of skating lately, and given Goebel might be a bit iffy, I'm thinking someone is going to sneak in out of the blue and get it. I'm having a psychic flash of some sort about Scott Smith (tho that hardly means anything since my flashes are not always correct ). I could also see it going to Jahnke, Lysaceck, or Weir. I think Goebel will at least medal, which is more than I can say for Weiss at this point.

WOMEN-Michelle always seems to raise her game at the Nationals, and if she's been able to do it the last 2 years, I think she should be able to do it again. I think Cohen is too iffy right now, but I still see them going 1-2. I'd love to see Nikidonov take 3rd, or Kirk, but I have a feeling that Beatrisa Liang is really going to be the sensation this year.

PAIRS-I can easily see Inoue & Baldwin winning; I feel the judges have been holding Scott & Dulebohn up for the last couple of years and since they have yet to make much progress internationally, I don't think they're going to go through the trouble again. I'm picking Don & Hunt for the bronze.

DANCE-Belbin & Agosto. If they came that close last year, then this year should be no problem at all. Lang & Tcheryshev silver, Gregory & Petukhov bronze. Once couples get ensconced on the podium at Nationals, they don't get taken off it very often.

Hi JonnyCoop - I like your post on the predictions. It's always nice to read someone taking a serious look at the competition rather than just writing down their favorites in a particular order.

Of course, I appreciate your views of Beatisa.

Joe

Ladies
1 / 2 - Michelle and Sasha (Their fight will be very exciting, especially after trainers' switch)
3 I see here Beatrisa and I think it's really possible

Men
1/2 Tim and Michael
3 Evan (maybe he'll do the same what Miki did at Japanese Nationals???)

Dance
1 without any hesitation - Tanith and Ben (I love to watch their improvement)
2 Naomi and Peter
3 Melissa and Denis

Pairs
Any of pairs (Rena/ John, Katie/Garrett, Tiffany/Philip, Jenny/Jonathon) can be medalists

Predictions

Hi all

Predictions are always fun, and for this year, recent events make the Ladies Event the most fun and exciting to predict this year.

Ladies-

1. MK
2. SC
3. JK

Men-

1. TG
2. Scott Smith
3. MW

Pairs-

1. S/D
2. I/B
3. No clue as to who has all their senior elements mature enough to be a senior pair.

Dance-

1. B/A
2. L/T
3. G/P


I think Scott Smith may hit his 4 salcow and place second. Jahnke, Savoie and the others would have to surprise to earn a spot. MK is the clear favorite here, and Sasha will be going to Worlds also. Pairs and Dance top two teams are easier to predict based on ability level, etc.

Next weekend is going to be fun!

AS

Ladies:
1Kwan
2Kirk
3Cohen

Men:
1Weiss
2Goebel
3Savoy

Pairs:
1Inoue/Baldwin
2Scott/Duhlebon
3Don/Hunt

Dance:
1Naomi/Peter
2Tanith/Ben
3Melissa and her husband

Ladies: 1)Cohen 2) a gift to Kwan 3) Liang

Men: 1) a gift to Weiss 2) a gift to Goebel 3) Smith

Dance: 1) Lang/Tch. 2) Belbin/Agostino 3) Gregory/Petuk.

Pairs:1) Inoue/Baldwin 2) a gift to Scott/Dulebohn 3) Orcher/Lu.

My opinions only Love them all. Unfortunately, judges are forced to pick only one per slot based on the ONE performance they see that day (or, so the Russians would have you believe, yuk, yuk).

I don't know if Cohen or Kwan will win, but in an off Olympic year, will Kwan really push? It might be in the stars for judges to actually reward according to what is seen on the ice THAT day. Cohen's late coach switch might pump her up to win (i.e., "honey- moon"per. w/confidence & mutual adoration betw. her & new coach: like getting a great new "updo" & feeling like the world is yours & you are the bomb right that moment). Between you all & me, I'm into thinking Cohen & Kwan are "adrenilin junkies" w/this coach switching: how "dangerous & daring" to jump coaches, --load on the pressure double-thick, etc, right before a big event.

Kirk is beautiful, but her jumps are underwhelming & finished on the ice. Angela will do her customery 2 jumps & 1 great spin. Ann-Patrice & Yebin are not ready. I'd like to see Amber get a nod due to her longevity in this sport & the few times that she de- livered & was not rewarded well for it--but, not likely. I think Liang will skate well enough to get any top position, but will be delivered a 3rd so as to place her well for next year.


For guys, I have no clue. They're awful lately. Weiss' leaning jumps scare me--but when he's "on", he's a "safe" choice for judges who are thinking about Worlds. Timmy says he is having boot problems, but I think he's in "melt-down" mode. He could be great---or just dreadful. I really think from what I saw last year that Scott Smith and Janke are the only "stable" (not great--just able to stand up) skaters we have in men, but I don't know what the judges will do about it. I thought Weir was an up-&-comer, but his Nationals/international non-performance hints, I think, at a serious need for a sports psychologist or something.

Dance: I haven't a clue. I just picked randomly.

Pairs: Inoue/Baldwin are the only ones there who have technical skills to NOT be embarrassing on the world scene the way pairs are developing internationally (can quad throws/quad split twists be far off?). We'll see if they can hold it together for 2 programs. In our own Nationals they are usually brushed-over for being who they are (singles who went pairs, & an international mix) but internationally, they are heavy-weights capable of "duking it out" w/ the best pairs--which is NO light-weight statement considering the state of American pairs teams over the last quarter century. I agree w/whomever said previously that Scott and Dulebohn have had more than enough time behind Ino & Zimmerman to develop. But, that train pulled out of the station already & they weren't on it for some reason.

I'm wondering if the way the placements will be chosen will have anything to do with knowing how future skaters will be scored in the big world outside of the US with the new system?

Here are my predictions:

Ladies
1. Michelle Kwan
2. Sasha Cohen
3. Jennifer Kirk
4. Ann Patrice MacDonough
5. Beatrisa Liang

Although this the event I'm most excited about, I think ladies and ice dance are the two easier events to predict. The oft-proven reliability of Kwan and the Grand Prix record of Cohen will assure their places on the world team. Kwan ahead of Cohen because a) Kwan has shown herself to be a better pressure skater, b) although both have had recent jump problems, Kwan's have been limited to the lutz, whereas Cohen's has extended to other toe (i.e., flip and toe) jumps, and c) Team Cohen says in this article that

"We’ve tweaked the programs but haven’t done anything drastic," said Wagner. Anything specific? Cohen revealed, "Little things. Things that we did for CoP – extra positions and steps. We’ve lost them so that the flow and speed is better."

Click to expand...

negating some of the choreographic advantages that Sasha's Swan Lake had over Michelle's Tosca. Jenny's persistence in including a 3toe-3toe combo will pay off. AP appears like a shell of yesteryear, with a beautiful SP but underrotated triples.


Men
1. Timothy Goebel
2. Michael Weiss
3. Scott Smith
4. Johnny Weir
5. Matt Savoie

The big question to me is: Has Goebel solved his boot problems yet enough to be comfortable with his programs? Although I like both of Weiss' programs better, if the answer to the above is yes and we see a quad and triple axel from Goebel, I think the contest is over. Witness that even with equipment problems and sickness, Goebel was able to garner second (although it must be said that Weiss got third at the Grand Prix Final). Below these two locks, the field is wide open. I haven't seen Weir skate this year.

Pairs
1. Scott and Dulebon
2. Inoue and Baldwin
3. Don and Hunt
4. Spielberg and Joeright

Perhaps the most difficult of all to predict, pairs will go down to who makes the fewest mistakes. Scott and Dulebon appeared improved at Trophee Lalique, but for some reason, I find them lacking some charisma. May the cleanest pair win this free-for-all (May there be clean performances among the top finishers two [ditto for the men])!

Dance
1. Belbin and Agosto
2. Lang and Tchernyshev
3. Gregory and Petukhov
4. Galler-Rabinowitz and Mitchell

As for ladies, first and second places are virtually assured for Belbin and Agosto and Lang and Tchernyshev, respectively. The USFSA wants three spots for 2005, and sending these two teams is the best way to try to get the magical combined placement of 13 (for example, B&A 5th, L&T 8th at Dortmund will be sufficient). Below these two, I don't really know.

We'll know really soon!

InsecureEdge

Ladies:
1. Michelle Kwan
2. Sasha Cohen
3. Jenny Kirk
4. Ann-Patrice McDonough

Men:
1. Timothy Goebel
2. Michael Weiss
3. Matt Savoie
4. Scott Smith

Pairs:
1. Scott & Dulebohn
2. Spielberg & Joeright
Bronze is a toss-up between Don & Hunt or Inoue & Baldwin.

Dance:
1. Lang & Tchernyshev
2. Belbin & Agosto
3. Gregory & Petukhov
4. Galler-Rabinowitz & Mitchell


--Hermione

Okay, Show, since you're using your Tarot cards, I'll use the I Ching and my Ouija board. I can only foresee the top 3 or 4, which in some cases is because I can't decide who will win 3rd or 4th. Good luck to all and to all a great skate!

SENIOR MEN
Goebel
Weiss
Scott Smith
Ryan Jahhke

SENIOR PAIRS
Scott/Dulebohn
Inoue/Baldwin
Orcher/Lucash

SENIOR DANCE
Belbin/Agosto
Gregory/Petukhov
Lange/Tchernsychev
(The one place for commentary: Although the USFSA wants those three places and B/A and L/T seem to be the best way to get it, OTOH, the USFSA may be building toward the future. L/T seem permanently injured. Peter is getting up there and they haven't done the GP series in two years because of injury. Although L/T will probably take 2nd, I think it's just a possibility that the USFSA might start going with younger skaters.)

SENIOR LADIES
Michelle Kwan
Sasha Cohen
Jenny Kirk
AP McDonough (last two very close--depends on how bad AP's injury is)
Rgirl

Toni, you didn't happen to pick Michigan in the Rose Bowl and WVU in the Gator Bowl on New Year's day did you?

Using the magic 8 Ball method......

Ladies: Michelle
Sasha
Bebe

Men: Tim
Mike
Ryan

Pairs: S/D
I/B
???(even the 8 ball doesn't know everything)

Dance: B/A
L/T
G/P

Piel

LADIES

Kwan is always prepared for Nationals, and we will see a more intense Tosca than we saw at the Cheesefest. Cohen is always a question mark mentally, but at least this year she isn't going in as the overwhelming favorite, which may help her somewhat. But I don't think we will see her first really clean FS at Nationals, and that's what she needs to win. Kirk, like Kwan, usually skates well at Nationals. If she can pull off another Skate America performance, she makes the World Team.

1. Kwan
2. Cohen
3. Kirk
4-6 Liang, Mok, McDonough in some order.

MEN

Big dependencies here. If Goebel has overcome his boot problems, he should take gold. If Weiss can recapture his Skate America form, he should make the podium. If Weir can overcome his nerves, he could challenge for silver, or gold if Goebel is still in boot limbo. I expect Goebel on the podium anyway, but Weiss has been so bad lately that he could miss altogether. Any of these men could be on the podium with two great skates: Smith, Lysacek, Jahnke, Savoie.

1. Goebel (boots OK)
2. Weir (head on straight)
3. Smith (two good skates)
4. Lysacek (two good skates)
5. Weiss (a mess)
6. Savoie (skating too cautiously due to pain)

PAIRS

Scott/Dulebohn won a medal at Lalique and all the talk was about restored confidence. Then the following week at Cup of Russia they had their worst performances of the season. TIME FOR A CHANGE!

1. Inoue/Baldwin - steadily improving
2. Scott/Dulebohn - steadily stagnating
3. Handy/Allen
4. Don/Hunt - Due to illness, he may not be ready for this
5. Orscher/Lucash
6. Hinzmann/Parchem

ICE DANCE

L/T won't be quite ready for this, but will make the World Team even if they are outskated by the improving Gregory/Petukhov. B/A have the momentum, and their GPF medal will grease the skids.

1. Belbin/Agosto
2. Lang/Tchernyshev
3. Gregory/Petukhov
4. Galler-Rabinowitz/Mitchell
5. Moxley/Kirsanov

PAIRS
1. Scott & Dulebohn
2. Inoue & Baldwin
3. Orscher & Lucash

Although I was happy for their Grand Prix silver, I still find S&D to be lacking in excitement. I&B seem to be steadily improving and already skate with more gusto/fire than do S&D, but I imagine they'll make mistakes and settle for silver. S&D will get the job done again and nothing more.

MEN
1. Goebel
2. Weiss
3. Smith

I expect Timmy will have some problems and not skate perfectly, but he certainly should perform far better than he did at the 2003 Nationals. He will do enough to win. Weiss will not be clean, but will win the silver based on reputation and presentation. The bronze, somewhat like the ladies event, is a toss up but I'd be very pleased to see Scott Smith or Matt Savoie on the podium.

ICE DANCE
1. Belbin & Agosto
2. Lang & Tchernyshev
3. Gregory & Petukhov

They were so close to winning last year, I'd have to imagine there'd be no question that Belbin & Agosto will wear gold for 2004. They've had a stellar GP season and you know the USFSA has to be ecstatic over this. Barring a complete melt down, I can't see Belbin & Agosto walking away with anything less than gold. They are the "chosen ones" of U.S. Ice Dance. But, that is too bad for Lang & Tchernyshev. They have worked hard and improved so much over the past several years. And they seem like such nice people to boot! Who knows, though...anything could happen.

LADIES
1. Kwan
2. Cohen
3. Kirk
4. Liang
5. McDonough
6. Mok

WHO KNOWS! A complete guess! History has shown that Kwan is usually rock solid for Nationals and I hope that will be the case. However, Sasha is a complete wild card. The fact that she is so unpredictable makes Nationals extremely unpredictable. The judges are more than ready to give Sasha the marks and the win if she skates cleanly. But, if Michelle skates with the same intensity as last year with added choreography...who knows! AAARGH! This, hopefully, will be a great match up. I REALLY want Jenny to win the bronze. She is a beautiful girl with a beautiful heart and has been through so much. If Jenny has troubles, I'd be more than happy to see any of the other three girls mentioned make it. They are all lovely skaters with loads of talent!