GPF Men FP, Sat. 12/10 at 4:55 pm EST

[Becki]

I don't know if that was called "juniorish". It was quite mature but was big exaggaration in the movements. Yuzuru used bigger moves to express what it could be expressed more from inside. Nevertheless, I love it very much! An impressive BV (79.85), higher than Takahashi's BV (78.79). And an impressive TES (87.21), again higher than Takahashi's TES (87.05). It's become the second highest in TES only trails Chan's TES by 0.38. But I think he won LP over Fernandez is all he could ask for. I agree Fernandez won over all.

I love Fernandez's skating and so impressed with his ability for clean 4T and clean 4S. 100% successful rate so far!!! Can't get any better than that!!! The dance section was a little inadequate. My feeling for that part was like when I watch Kozuka's LP. Looking forward to Euro. and I'm rooting for him to win.

It was a great 4T! Abbott finally got it! I thought once he overcome his 4T, the rest would be a piece of cake. But noooooo, two disappointing falls. I've said enough about this LP already. Just wanted to add that I agree with whoever in this thread said about Jeremy's shoulders. He is indeed the 5th in this group. I also think his costume didn't do justice for him. Over amphasized the weakness - slim arms, and undermined his tall, good, seemingly perfect proportional stature.

I like Brezina and his skating very much. But, boy, he got to change his training regime, or change coach, or change something as soon as possible!!!

Now onto the unthinkables, maybe I should say the untouchables:

Chan BV=83.75 TES=87.59

Takahashi BV=78.79 TES=87.05

Think this way. If Chan didn't make any mistakes in his jumps in 4T, 4T-2T, and 3Lz. The maximum Chan could get from these three jumps would be 37.50. Instead, he got only 22.13 from them. A vast(-15.37) + (-1) (fall deduction) = -16.37. So Chan has lost 16.37 from jump errors.

On the other hand, Takahashi could get maximum from his 4T was 13.30. Instead, he got 7.73. He's lost 5.57 from jump error.

I'd think that was an enough punishment for Chan. Don't you think?

Right, some people said it was not about TES at all. It was about PCS.

Take a deep breath and see:

Chan:

SS 8.75 8.75 8.25 9.50 8.75 8.75 8.75 8.50 9.00 8.75
TR 7.50 8.75 8.00 9.00 8.50 8.75 9.00 8.50 8.75 8.61
PE 9.25 8.00 8.25 8.50 9.00 8.50 8.75 8.50 8.75 8.61
CH 8.75 8.50 8.25 9.00 9.00 8.75 9.25 8.25 9.00 8.75
IN 9.25 8.75 8.25 8.50 9.00 8.75 9.00 8.50 9.25 8.82

Total PCS 87.08

Takahashi:

SS 8.00 9.00 8.50 9.00 8.75 8.75 8.75 7.75 8.25 8.57
TR 7.50 9.00 8.50 8.75 8.25 8.75 8.25 5.50 8.50 8.36
PE 8.00 9.50 8.50 9.00 8.75 9.00 8.00 8.00 9.00 8.61
CH 7.75 9.00 8.25 9.25 9.00 8.75 8.00 6.75 8.75 8.50
IN 7.75 9.25 8.50 9.50 9.00 8.75 8.50 8.25 9.00 8.75

Total PCS 85.58

SS - Judge #2 and #3 gave Takahasi higher SS than Chan. No objection from any of you?! I personally think Chan's SS is about 0.50 higher than Takahashi's. But instead Chan got only 0.18 higher. That was a mistake.

TR - Again Judge #2 and #3 gave Takahashi higher TR than Chan. But Judge #8 gave a strange 5.50. I agree that was a huge mistake. However, Judge #8's 5.50 and Judge #2's 9.00 got go but Judge #3's score got stay.

PE - Judge #2, #3, #4, #6, and #9, 5 out of 9 judges gave Takahashi higher PE than Chan. The highest PE Takahashi received was 9.50. The highest PE Chan received was 9.25.

CH - Judge #2 and #4 gave Takahashi higher CH than Chan. The highest Takahashi got was 9.25. The highest Chan got was also 9.25. I personally think both programs are top knotch Choreographically. Again a strange 6.75 from Judge #8 but it got go in the end.

IN - Judge #2, #3, and #4 gave Takahashi higher IN than Chan. I wouldn't have given Takahashi 7.75 for IN. But it didn't matter because it didn't count. Skatinginbc, that was a huge, vast 0.07 loss for Takahashi on IN. To me, I don't think there was much to fuzz about with such. It was statistical margine difference or it could be called statistical error if you like. Another random draw, Judge #8 could be filtered out and forgotten. I could make a bigger case on SS than you have done on IN. But I'm not the judge. I'd give different numbers on each segment in PCS which might have set Takahahsi's total PCS higher in this particular skating. However, I don't think it'll make huge difference.

But to think Patrick has the potential to score 190 in his LP if skated clean is crazy.....wonder how other skaters are going to adjust their programs to challenge chan ? I honestly think a clean daisuke is the only one who can beat a somewhat flawed chan.....

However, I can see Yuzuru challenging Chan at the 2014 Olympics if he continues to resolve his stamina problems and stay strong and healthy. Yuzuru is stronger technically than Chan, and with experience and more exposure, will probably receive higher PCs.

[Bluebonnet]

But to think Patrick has the potential to score 190 in his LP if skated clean is crazy.....wonder how other skaters are going to adjust their programs to challenge chan ? I honestly think a clean daisuke is the only one who can beat a somewhat flawed chan.....

Why is it crazy? Add up those numbers and see. (I haven't done that yet. It was just my rough estimation.) But Takahashi wasn't clean.

[silver.blades]

Let me ask you: what other skaters of the past and present do you see as having superior blade work? Of course, top on my list are Michelle Kwan and the unparalleled Kurt Browning. I don't include Sasha. I think Katia Gordeyeva most definitely has it, as well as Yuka Sato and Mao Asada. Whom do you include in this group?

Katia Gordeyeva is absolutely brilliant. I also agree with Yuka Sato. I find that Mao skates a tad sluggish at times, but when she's on she's very smooth. I'd also include Shae-Lynn Bourne. I don't include Browning. His blade work is solid, but I find he's more of quick feet and great performance than great power off of a single edge, a lot like Takahashi in that regard. I find that this is something that is really hard to tell on tv. You can tell the good from the bad, but differentiating the good from the great requires live viewing.

I agree with most of what you said regarding all the skaters, but I wouldn’t compare Takahashi’s speed to Jason Brown. I could see that Hanyu and Chan could accelerate in less than one second because they were indeed fast, but Jason… As much as I like him, I wouldn’t compare his skating skills with Takahashi’s. And how do you feel about Jeremy’s acceleration then? Was he fast or slow?

When I compared Takahashi to Jason Brown, I didn't mean overall speed across the ice, but the acceleration to the skater's full speed. A skater can be very fast without having particularly good acceleration and can have good acceleration without being fast. The Chinese pairs are fast, but don't have good acceleration. Takahashi is reasonably fast, but doesn't gain as much speed off his edge as he could. I was quite impressed with Jeremy's acceleration. Very smooth and he's quite fast across the ice and does a good job maintaining speed through the footwork, which speaks to good basics.

[SkateFiguring]

Daisuke skated at his highest technical level in a long time. He rotated his 4T and stayed up, and his other jumps and spins were solid and much better than his NHK performance. He surely would bave won the LP if he had his performance level a little closer to his NHK's. Or if Chan had not the presence of mind to tack on the 2T after the second 4T and to tack on a 3T after the 3F near the end of the program. These were the little misses from Takahashi and the extra gumption from Chan that ultimately made the finale 1 point difference.

[Becki]

Why is it crazy? Add up those numbers and see. (I haven't done that yet. It was just my rough estimation.) But Takahashi wasn't clean.

Based on your estimation, I think it's crazy as in mind bottling that a clean skate can score 190 points. The best skate for me so far is Daisuke's 4CC Swan Lake one, that has been my benchmark for "near perfection" for a while @ 175 points. Seeing Chan come close to that mark with his performance on Saturday is just mind bottling me for too. But that's from a spectator point of view, of course you can always argue that I am comparing apples to oranges and it's unfair.

I know Takahashi wasn't clean...if he was, would he still beat a clean Chan?

[SkateFiguring]

I know Takahashi wasn't clean...if he was, would he still beat a clean Chan?

I just posted the difference makers from Takahashi and Chan at this GPF. As to a clean Takahashi vs a clean Chan, Chan would win because of his higher TES BV. IOW, he has more point scoring higher technical difficulties in his program. I stated before that two flawed quads beat one flawed quad, but two clean quads smash one clean quad.

[demarinis5]

Article from Mainichi Daily Ledger with quotes from Dai regarding the GPF and his thoughts
on Mao's mother's passing.

http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/sport...sp104000c.html

[wallylutz]

Yuzuru is stronger technically than Chan

How? In what aspects?

[SkateFiguring]

http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/sport...sp104000c.html

Takahashi knows well the difference between himself and Chan right now. One of Chan's trump cards over his closest rivals is the quad in the SP. As of now, those who are confident enough to do it in the SP don't have other skills to challenge Chan. The real contenders such as Takahashi know it which is why he's decided to put it in the SP. It backfired this time but he has little choice but to attempt it and hope it will turn out well at the most important competition. Chan is forcing the rest to take risk.

[demarinis5]

^ SF What you say is very true about Dai, he knows what he needs to do. Also what he said about Patrick having the whole package made me smile. I like that in an athlete because it shows that elite skaters can appreciate what the other does on the ice.

Both Dai and Patrick seem like very nice young men who respect each other. How refreshing.

[SkateFiguring]

A while ago I read about a Japanese TV program in which the interviewer asked Kozuka how great could a quadless Chan be. Kozuka said that Patrick made the most difficult look easy.

The best skaters in the world have mutual respect for each other because they actually know the sport and understand the pressure of competition. The problem with Patrick is that his skill level is extremely high but not obvious.As well, his performance, interpretation, and musicality are more subtle and not in your face. Different but not inferior.

Dai's decision and action indicate his goal is to win, not "doing his best" for whatever placement.

[skatinginbc]

To me, It was statistical margin difference or it could be called statistical error if you like.

Nay, if you calculate the mean scores for IN and CH, you'll see that the exclusion of extreme scores plus the random draws were actually in Takahashi's favor. Chan could have had an even bigger margin.

It puzzles me:
1. Why did one third of the judges believe Chan's choreography was so much better (a whole point or higher) than Dai's? Was the difference really that obvious?
2. Why were there more judges that thought Chan had a better interpretation than those that thought the opposite? The mere notion that Chan was comparable to Dai in terms of reflecting the tempos, rhythms and nuances of the music is already mind-boggling, not to speak of the interrupting fall.
3. Why didn't Dai end up with a higher PE even though five out of the nine judges actually scored him higher?

And so I found out the true meaning of "judges' pet", which does not entail favoritism from the majority of judges. Instead, it means: getting one or two more extreme favorable scores. A judge that scored Chan 0.75 higher in PE successfully cancelled out two judges (0.25 and 0.50) that preferred Dai's performance. As I mentioned earlier, three judges scored Chan's choreography at least one point higher than Dai's. After deleting the highest extreme score, two of them still stayed.

[Boeing787]

Nay, if you calculate the mean scores for IN and CH, you'll see that the exclusion of extreme scores plus the random draws were actually in Takahashi's favor. Chan could have had an even bigger margin.

It puzzles me:
1. Why did one third of the judges believe Chan's choreography was so much better (a whole point or higher) than Dai's? Was the difference really that obvious?
2. Why were there more judges that thought Chan had a better interpretation than those that thought the opposite? The mere notion that Chan was comparable to Dai in terms of reflecting the tempos, rhythms and nuances of the music is already mind-boggling, not to speak of the interrupting fall.
3. Why didn't Dai end up with a higher PE even though five out of the nine judges actually scored him higher?

And so I found out the true meaning of "judges' pet", which does not entail favoritism from the majority of judges. Instead, it means: getting one or two more extreme favorable scores. A judge that scored Chan 0.75 higher in PE successfully cancelled out two judges (0.25 and 0.50) that preferred Dai's performance. As I mentioned earlier, three judges scored Chan's choreography at least one point higher than Dai's. After deleting the highest extreme score, two of them still stayed.

possible explanations:
watching skating live is different from watching it on TV.
Patrick's music and performance has highlight while Dai's is kinda flat. I think his '10 program will score higher and might beat Chan's in LP.

[Joesitz]

I'm not sure if the scores show a difference between the two guys fighting it out for 1st pls, but between the two, Takahashi gave the best performance,and for the technical side, what did one do that the other didn't.I'm sorry but a Fall to me is a no-jump credit. Chang had two or those.

I can't help, but be pleased with Hanyu and Fernandez. They rose to the occasion.

[doctor2014]

I love Fernandez's skating and so impressed with his ability for clean 4T and clean 4S. 100% successful rate so far!!! Can't get any better than that!!!

I agree. Javier has strong jumps! But after doing 2 quads the poor guy always lacks stamina in the latter half. He’s only 20 y.o. and hasn’t reached his prime yet. Do you think with aging he’ll accumulate more stamina?

The dance section was a little inadequate. My feeling for that part was like when I watch Kozuka's LP.

Also agree. I think Orser should send Javier to ballet class. The music of the dance part demands more lightness and flexibility than Javier can execute now.

I like Brezina and his skating very much. But, boy, he got to change his training regime, or change coach, or change something as soon as possible!!!

It seems that Brezina has undergone some ballet training and I think he’s a better dancer than Javier, but the choreography just sucks. Brezina deserves a better program. For instance, if he skates to Javier’s program instead, then he might do more well than Javier in the dance part.

An impressive BV (79.85), higher than Takahashi's BV (78.79). And an impressive TES (87.21), again higher than Takahashi's TES (87.05). It's become the second highest in TES only trails Chan's TES by 0.38. But I think he won LP over Fernandez is all he could ask for. I agree Fernandez won over all.

This I disagree. Do you mean Hanyu should win LP over Javier, but Javier should win the SP and thus should win overall? Did you look at their SP scores?

SP_____TES__PCS:
Javier: 42.19 39.07
Hanyu: 43.26 36.07

Javier lost to Hanyu on TES in both SP and LP, yet was still able to win the GPF event with a big 5.12-point margin on PCS. Hanyu should not have outscored Hanyu by 3 points on PCS in the SP. Hanyu’s skating skills are so much better than Javier’s.