Senior Competitors and Predictions
1 Cynthia Phaneuf QC
2 Myriane Samson QC
3 Amelie Lacoste QC
4 Adriana DeSanctis CO
5 Kaetlyn Osmond AB/NT/NU
6 Alexandra Gagnon QC
7 Alaine Chartrand EO
8 Kate Charbonneau MB
9 Alexandra Najarro CO
10 Vanessa Grenier QC
11 Jessica Dube QC
12 Sarah Jourdain QC
13 Roxanne Rheault QC
14 Izabel Valiquette QC
15 Devon Neuls AB/NT/NU
16 Kaleigh Hole MB
17 Rachel Gendron QC
18 Cambria Little BC/YT
SUB Alexie Gélinas QC
1 Patrick Chan CO
2 Kevin Reynolds BC/YT
3 Elladj Balde QC
4 Andre Rogozine CO
5 Jeremy Ten BC/YT
6 Liam Firus BC/YT
7 Nam Nguyen BC/YT
8 Maxime-Billy Fortin QC
9 Raphael Yacobi-Harris CO
10 Dave Ferland QC
11 Samuel Morais QC
12 Shaquille Davis CO
13 Charles Dion QC
14 Sasha Alcoloumbre QC
15 David Struthers QC
16 Benjamin Guthrie NO
17 Benjamin Tidy QC
18 Dominic Rondeau QC
SUB Jesse Smith AB/NT/NU
1 Kirsten Moore-Towers / Dylan Moscovich WO
2 Megan Duhamel / Eric Radford QC
3 Paige Lawrence / Rudy Swiegers SK
4 Natasha Purich / Raymond Shultz AB/NT/NU
5 Brittany Jones / Kurtis Gaskell WO
6 Taylor Steele / Robert Shultz CO
7 Jessica Dube / Sebastian Wolfe QC
8 Margaret Purdy / Michael Marinaro CO
9 Julianne Séguin / Andrew Evans QC
10 Noemie Arseneault / Simon-Pierre Côté QC
11 Alexie Gélinas / David Struthers QC
12 Andrea Tou / Matthew Penasse CO
1 Tessa Virtue /Scott Moir WO
2 Kaitlyn Weaver / Andrew Poje NO
3 Alexandra Paul / Mitchell Islam CO
4 Kharis Ralph / Asher Hill CO
5 Tarrah Harvey / Keith Gagnon BC/YT
6 Piper Gilles / Paul Poirier CO
7 Nicole Orford / Thomas Williams BC/YT
8 Larissa Van As / Troy Shindle BC/YT
9 Anoushka Ritchie-Hervieux / Philippe Massé QC
10 Shanna René De Cotret-Laporte / Alexandre Lal QC
11 Olga Lioudvinevitch / Benjamin Mulder WO
12 Mélissande Dumas / David Mackay Perry QC
13 Jazz Smyl Joly / Nicholas Jesionek AB/NT/NU
14 Anne Chloe Bissonnette / Dylan Lockey Chatha QC
15 Helene Letourneau / Kevin Boczar EO
Last edited by hohoho; 12-14-2011 at 10:56 AM.
Thanks hohoho. For ladies , mens and dance you managed to list the competitors in reverse order of the SP start order.
Pairs is a little bit trickier. Jones/Gaskell did compete at senior nationals last year so to be consistent they should be listed after Lawrence/Swiegers.
There will be a draw for skate order between Purich/Schultz , Steele/Schultz and Dube/Wolfe ( byed skaters who did not do senior nationals last year ) to skate immediately before Jones/Gaskell ( the lowest placed at last senior nationals of the byed skaters).
If Bobak/Beharry are skating senior then Tou/Penasse become subs as there will not be more than 12 pairs at nationals and Bobak/Beharry would have a bye due to JGPF. As well they would be involved in the draw mentioned above.
Hi Nadster, wasn't intended to be a start order just competitor list.
In Ladies, question mark is either Myriane Samson or Alexie Gelinas will be there.
Pairs is tricky. I am thinking Bobak/Beharry should skate Senior with their performances on the JGP. Couldn't list Tou/Penasse as SUB until the formal list is released by Skate Canada.
Originally Posted by hohoho
They are both age eligible, and neither has won Junior Pairs in Canada. They are a brand new team. I'm pretty sure they will compete Junior and will bring home the gold medal. There is no benefit to them competing Senior domestically this year. Based on age, I think they can compete again as Juniors internationally next year as well, but if they win Junior at home this year, they will have to skate Senior domestically next year.
Another note, a really minor one, I believe Taylor Steele and Rob Shultz represent WO.
In dance, I'm really interested to see if Bissonnette and Lockey Chatham will actually show up at Nationals. From my scouring the web, I don't think they have competed anywhere since last year's Canadians. Are they still a team?
Wicked Yankee Girl
I'm going to be interested to see how Paul & Islam, Gilles & Poirier, and Ralph & Hill finish at Nationals. I'm hoping for R&H to knock it outta the park.
I didn't think so but since your lists line up so perfectly I just wanted to point that out so that one does not have to wait to get the official SP/SD start order. You pretty much put it out there perfectly for ladies, mens and dance.
Originally Posted by hohoho
Only in pairs ( because there are at least 2 byed pairs that did not do senior nationals last year ) will there be any sort of draw at all among the byed teams who did not do senior nationals last year. They'll skate after the non-byed skaters but before the byed skaters who did senior nationals last year.
So some predictions:
(assuming Samson is NOT competing)
1-2 Cynthia Phaneuf
1-2 Amelie Lacoste
3-5 Alexandra Najarro
3-5 Kate Charbonneau
3-5 Kaetlyn Osmond
Very hard to predict. Depends on how Phaneuf responds to Orser. Lacoste has been skating well. Expecting Najarro to skate better here than Challenge. Same as Charbonneau. If Osmond corrects the few mistakes she made at challenge she could be higher than 3-5 group.
1 Patrick Chan
2-5 Kevin Reynolds
2-5 Jeremy Ten
2-5 Liam Firus
2-5 Elladj Balde
Chan is a lock on 1st. 2-5 will be a toss up from the BC boys and Elladj. Outside shot from Nam.
1-2 Moore-Towers / Moscovich
1-2 Duhamel / Radford
3-4 Lawrence / Swiegers
3-4 Dube / Wolfe
5 Seguin / Evans
MT/M and D/R I think are a lock for the 1-2 positions. I think D/R have the momentum. L/S and D/W will battle for third here, but can move up if one of the top two falter. Leaving 5th for the QC Section champs and Challenge Silver medallists
1 Virtue / Moir
2 Weaver / Poje
3-5 Gilles / Poirier
3-5 Paul / Islam
3-5 Ralph / Hill
V/M are a lock at 1st and W/P as well in 2nd. 3-5 grouping will totally depends on who really wants it. I am leaning towards G/P.
Surprised you left out Rogozine. Personally I see Rogozine , Reynolds and Ten fighting for 2nd to 4th spots. I see Balde, Nam and Firus fighting for the last spot on the national team.
Originally Posted by hohoho
There are question marks as to how far Ten is to getting his jumps back. He should be jumping better than at the challenge though.
The other thing is that Rogozine and Reynolds do not tend to skate their best at nationals. I have a feeling that Rogozine pips ahead due to the fact that he is the most consistent internationally.
"3-5 grouping will totally depends on who really wants it. I am leaning towards G/P. "
I would like Paul/Islam to be third, but I am afraid you are right, it will not be them but G/P :-(
And I think Harvey/Gagnon may be fourth.
Well, I'm always terrible at this, but here goes...
1. Chan (he could skate the entire program on his backside and still win)
2. Rogozine (he's very consistent, and I think that could give him an edge)
1. Phaneuf (she always skates well at nationals)
2. Najarro (this is probably wishful thinking)
1. Moore-Towers & Moscovitch (i think their material is better than D/R's)
2. Duhamel & Radford
3. Lawrence & Swiegers
1. Virtue & Moir (no brainer)
2. Weaver & Poje (double no brainer...though I suspect they may begin to close the gap points wise on V/M this year)
3. Paul & Islam (I know their season has been a complete disaster, but I have faith)
Constable , Costume Police
I'm dreadful at this too. I can never keep my hopes out of my predictions ( assuming they're anywhere close to each other )...Thank goodness I'm not a betting woman.
1. Patrick , of course
2 ? ..3 ?...I wish for Jeremy Ten to just slide in here, somehow, and shake up the podium. Rogozine and Reynolds are probably surer bets , but I can't be thrilled at the prospect.
( I'd also love to think Elladj could be back enough to challenge for the podium , but he'll need another coach and another year to make that at all feasible , I think . )
Ladies ( just considering the options depresses me )
1. Cynthia , no doubt..she does usually skate well at nationals, and I'm curious to see if Brian has yet managed to make a difference for her in their short time together.
2. Lacoste , I suppose...but nothing deflates me more than thoughts of our ladies' field..
3. Najarro , I guess... (see above )
1 . Moore-Towers / Moscovitch
2. Duhamel / Radford ... but 1 and 2 could switch on any given day.
3. Lawrence / Sweigers... Like them lots, but still not the choreographic, costume route they've taken.
1. Virtue / Moir
2. Weaver / Poje
3. ( ohgodohgodohgod ) I want and wish Paul / Islam to be back in form enough to take 3rd, but don't know if they can be. It's a tall order in a short time ... If not , I'd like to see Ralph and Hill , considering the improvements they've made. ( I'd love it if Orford / Williams could crack top 5 this year...we'll see..6th is probably the best they can hope for )
In all disciplines, I hope for a total absence of political sway , and hype . Oh ,let me dream....
Last edited by colleen o'neill; 12-27-2011 at 09:30 PM.
1. Cynthia Phaneuf
3. Adriana Desanctis
4. Amélie Lacoste
5. Vanessa Grenier
1. Patrick Chan
2. Kevin Reynolds
3. . Andrei Rogozine
5. Eladge Balde
1. Moore-Towers / Moscovich
2. Duhamel / Radford
3. Lawrence / Swiegers
4. Dube / Wolfe
5 Seguin / Evans
1. Virtue / Moir
2. Weaver / Poje
3.Gilles / Poirier
4. Ralph / Hill
5. Paul / Islam
Huge Scott Moir Fan
I know that Weaver and Poje are 99% gonna get silver, but I'd really like to see them break the 100 mark in the free dance. It's such an amazing dance, and they should be rewarded accordingly even though it's just a national competition.
Questions and Thoughts.
1. The second men's spot is a fascinating conundrum, isn't it? Reynolds actually outpointed Rogozine (by 11 and 7 points, approximately), and that's entirely a tribute to his ridiculously high base value. But his PCS are actually nothing to write home about - low sixes for both. I think Rogozine is the stronger competitor mentally and I think Skate Canada will be behind him more. Rogozine attempted a quad in both is programs at Thornhill. If he can actually get one landed at Nationals, I think his PCS will be enough. But his last Nationals LP was pretty disappointing.
2. There are three question marks when it comes to the men, imo - Liam Firus, Nam Nguyen, and Jeremy Ten. Ten and Firus are former top six (Ten medalled) skaters. Ten's coming back from injury. Firus had a disappointing JGP season. Nguyen is way too young and without the big guns, jump wise, but he's also really consistent at Nationals. Should be interesting to see where they rank.
3. The ladies are an uninteresting lot.
4. Pairs, on the other hand..... Okay, end of the last season. D/R beat Mt/M twice in back to back competitions (4CC and Worlds). I thought D/R would have a smooth ride to the top of Nationals this season with their wickedly high base value and solid PCS. But Mt/M came out at Skate America with one of the great pairs LPs of the season (which, whoa, didn't see that coming). I still think D/R have the edge (they should win the SP by an element-margin and high base value means the ability to absorb errors more readily) but it's a lot closer than I thought.
5. Unfortunately for Lawrence/Swiegers. Because they don't have the base value to compete, and their PCS have been (unfairly?) stuck behind the top teams here. The biggest curiosity here is how do Dube/Wolfe compare score wise, and how close are the other GP-senior teams. Bobak/Beharry are in juniors (which is where they should be, imo)
6. Dance. Dance is where it's at. Three teams are vying for the bronze medal.
a) Paul/Islam's greatest strength is their insane learning curve. The leap up from JGPs to JWs was surprising. The leap from JWs to Thornhill even more so, and from Thornhill to Nationals! Wowsa. If there is ANY team that can come back quickly from injury (recalling that they WD from CoR 2010 for injury concerns, but had two strong skates at Nationals 2011) it's this one. I don't know if they will, of course.
b) Most surprising improvement comes from Ralph/Hill. At the beginning of the season, I assumed that Orford/Williams would challenge them for the fifth spot. That's clearly not going to happen, but R/H have really pushed themselves to improve. More interesting choreography, better movement and posture and some personality shining through beyond what we've seen in the past. I think they can actually get that third spot easily but for.....
c) Gilles/Poirier. In a fair world, they'd be allowed to grow. But the hype surrounding this team is ridiculous. When asked about their potential, Lane responded, "ask again in three years." That is entirely correct and suggests she's aware of how long it takes to create a truly top flight team. On the other hand, those scores at those precursor events are really high. Much more than they deserve.
7. The reason I'm worried is not so much that G/P will take someone else's slot away - obviously, they aren't competing internationally this year. My concern is that we're gonna see a narrative forced - the "oh my god they look so good and have only been skating together for months and will be world champions one day at this rate" blah blah blah. It happened last season with Lane's crew given the full court press, and even though C/P had that terrific FD, we didn't see the international judges responding to that in the same way. Once W/P skated clean, C/P were left behind (Worlds 2011). One the one hand, we can say that the judges are giving W/P their due internationally. Realistically, there's no reason for SC to politick them down. But the scores will tell a tale anyway. I do hope that SC sees how W/P improved over the years and allow THAT to unfold naturally with G/P.
8. I'm hoping Patrick Chan has a perfect Aranjuez for Worlds. I'm more curious if he sticks to his initial plan and adds a quad salchow for Nationals. I don't think he should, but what do I know?