Japanese Nationals - Men

[wallylutz]

Yes, except this is a national competition where Takahashi won. At an international one, he would never win. There is only one skater who can do that at an international competition and win. You know who it is.

That's just not true. Unless you consider Kozuka and Hanyu not to be up to international standard. Sometimes, a national competition can be more competitive than an international competition. For the All Japan Championship in Men, that is most definitely the case vs. many of the international events like Nebelhorn Trophy, a well known international event, but less competitive.

The point is national or international categorization is quite irrelevant, it's the skaters who are in it that determine the competitiveness level. Considering this event has the reigning World Silver Medalist and another person who qualified for GPF through winning a GP event, I see no difference between the competitiveness level of this competition vs. any of the GP event this year. Maybe you can show us which GP event was in fact harder than the All Japan Men competition? I am convinced you can't, therefore, your argument is without merit.

[Mirunna]

I think DianaSelene was referring that at a national competition there are national judges and they are more generous usually than the international ones. I don't think that under an international panel of judges Dai would have scored 5 points more on PCS than Kozuka(for example, at the GPF, in the SP , the mistakes he made affected his PCS a lot.) The international judges award Daisuke with great scores but when he is on. But when he makes mistakes, he is penalized, like he was in Skate Canada.

[DianaSelene]

I think DianaSelene was referring that at a national competition there are national judges and they are more generous usually than the international ones. I don't think that under an international panel of judges Dai would have scored 5 points more on PCS than Kozuka(for example, at the GPF, in the SP , the mistakes he made affected his PCS a lot.) The international judges award Daisuke with great scores but when he is on. But when he makes mistakes, he is penalized, like he was in Skate Canada.

Thank you, Mirunna. That's what I meant. This has nothing to do with the fact that other competitors are Kozuka and Hanyu and whether they are world class figure skaters. But don't figure skaters at nationals get much higher scores than they would at an international competition? Am I wrong? Does my argument have no merit? Yes, it happens. I am not giving an exact competition where Takahashi would or would not win at an international competition. But as in Skate Canada, he would not be first.

[wallylutz]

I think DianaSelene was referring that at a national competition there are national judges and they are more generous usually than the international ones. I don't think that under an international panel of judges Dai would have scored 5 points more on PCS than Kozuka(for example, at the GPF, in the SP , the mistakes he made affected his PCS a lot.) The international judges award Daisuke with great scores but when he is on. But when he makes mistakes, he is penalized, like he was in Skate Canada.

But to accept such argument, we would have to subscribe to a belief that Japanese national judges are biased in favor of Takahashi against his competitors. But why should they? Kozuka is in fact the higher ranked skater. So if what you say is true, it's not because the competition is national or international, it's because the judges here are not being fair to Kozuka hence Takahashi can win. And you think this can't happen in an international event?

[wallylutz]

But don't figure skaters at nationals get much higher scores than they would at an international competition?

They often do but the last time I checked, Kozuka hasn't renounced his Japanese citizenship yet. :sheesh: How do you explain his lack of boost at his national event?

But as in Skate Canada, he would not be first.

Some of you keep citing Skate Canada [2011] without explaining why. But let me point out why such comparison is flawed:

- It was the 1st event the season, many skaters were still quite rough, including Takahashi
- Takahashi's mistakes there and here aren't the same and he certainly didn't fall 3 times in Mississauga
- That event was exceptionally well skated by two other skaters, had it being another competition, he could very well have won

[Olympia]

That said, I'm torn between my feelings, after having watched the top 3 and looking at the results. On one hand I'm happy for Daisuke that he won Nationals for the 5th time, but sad that he won with so many falls. I'm sure even he, being the warrior that he is, isn't pleased with how he skated. :(

This reminds me in every way how I felt when Sasha Cohen won the 2006 Olympic Silver Medal with two falls (and, yes, I consider both falls).


I cannot think of *one* Olympic Champion in Mens or Ladies singles skating that has won with a fall, as it should be. For this I thank the skategods first & foremost, then the judges.

Just because one comes to mind, I'll mention that if I remember correctly, Kristi Yamaguchi of all people won with a fall at Albertville. When I watched her LP again some time ago, I was shocked to see the fall.

But your point is well taken. It's hard to understand how several falls can still lead to a gold, unless everyone else fell more. Like you, I have a bit of an unsettled feeling over Sasha's win (though I was thrilled at the same time) and now over Daisuke's (though again I'm thrilled at the same time). I guess being a sports fan means having to live with ambiguity from time to time.

[wallylutz]

Would you argue that the difference between Takahashi and Kozuka is such that Takahashi with a quad and two falls should beat Kozuka? That's what I'm having problems with.

Also notice Takahashi on his 3rd fall (on the 3F) where he took a long time to recover and lost parts of his choreography. He simply stroked to the corner to begin his footwork sequence and omitted everything in between. That got to be penalized severely in PE, CH and IN but amazingly, they aren't. If a fall isn't disruptive, it's one thing. You can probably make an argument his first two falls weren't very disruptive as the choreography didn't go out of the window with them but the 3rd fall was very disruptive, it took him long time to recover. And he ended up winning by 5 points on PCS? It sure isn't because he has superior SS and TR over Kozuka.

Honestly, I feel Japan wants to crown Takahashi no matter what. I think they fear if Takahashi doesn't enter the 4CC and Worlds as the reigning Japanese Champion, it's going to hurt him in the eyes of international judges, that's why. Unfortunately, if that comes at the cost of being unfair to Kozuka, that's a price they are willing to pay. Except ISU judges are known to defy national results that seem "cooked" to them. Very often, national champions of certain countries ended up 2nd if not 3rd against his/her own countrymen at ISU championships later, no need to look further than where Ryan Bradley ended up vs. his two other American team mates. I am just not sure this is a smart thing to do to hold up Takahashi like this, it can hurt him more in the long run and essentially provides a free pass to his competitor(s) in the future should someone else beat him with 3 falls in the future.

[Mirunna]

They often do but the last time I checked, Kozuka hasn't renounced his Japanese citizenship yet. :sheesh: How do you explain his lack of boost at his national event?



Some of you keep citing Skate Canada [2011] without explaining why. But let me point out why such comparison is flawed:

- It was the 1st event the season, many skaters were still quite rough, including Takahashi
- Takahashi's mistakes there and here aren't the same and he certainly didn't fall 3 times in Mississauga
- That event was exceptionally well skated by two other skaters, had it being another competition, he could very well have won

Takahashi had the best result of the 3 going into nationals. He won silver at the GPF. Kozuka didn't qualify to the GPF. Last year was another story, Kozuka won both his GP and had a good skate and made the podium at the GPF. He won last year with 2 falls because he was the one with the biggest potential for worlds, with Takahashi under-performing and Oda's inability to count his combinations. Maybe it's just a coincidence but I don't think so. It's common for a country to promote their best skater. And Takahashi is their best skater, with falls or not, because for some reason Kozuka is screwed by the international judges once again.
Skate Canada was not the only competition where Daisuke lost. Look at the scores he got at NHK trophy in the SP and the scores he got in the GPF(SP); see the difference in PCS? The same will happen again if Daisuke will fall 3 times in a competition, his PCS wil go downhill.

[DianaSelene]

They often do but the last time I checked, Kozuka hasn't renounced his Japanese citizenship yet. :sheesh: How do you explain his lack of boost at his national event?



Some of you keep citing Skate Canada [2011] without explaining why. But let me point out why such comparison is flawed:

- It was the 1st event the season, many skaters were still quite rough, including Takahashi
- Takahashi's mistakes there and here aren't the same and he certainly didn't fall 3 times in Mississauga
- That event was exceptionally well skated by two other skaters, had it being another competition, he could very well have won

You are completely misunderstanding me and jumping to conclusions. From the very beginning, I did not say my statement in relation to Kozuka and Hanyu but competitions in general. Point out to me where I said that at an international competition, Kozuka would get higher scores than Takahashi. I only said that Takahashi would get lower scores at an international competitions and guess what... There are other competitors at international competitions other than Kozuka and Hanyu. They are from many different countries and the judges are from many different countries. Listen to my statement again: Takahashi with so many mistakes would probably not win an international competition where there are skaters from all over the world and at least a few would not fall three times. That's it- has no relationship to other Japanese skaters and how they were judged at national.

[wallylutz]

Takahashi had the best result of the 3 going into nationals. He won silver at the GPF. Kozuka didn't qualify to the GPF. Last year was another story, Kozuka won both his GP and had a good skate and made the podium at the GPF. He won last year with 2 falls because he was the one with the biggest potential for worlds, with Takahashi under-performing and Oda's inability to count his combinations. Maybe it's just a coincidence but I don't think so. It's common for a country to promote their best skater.

Essentially, what you are saying is this competition is biased in favor of Takahashi because he shows more promise this year. While countries do tend to promote their best skater, it's unclear who is the best skater in Japan at the moment. The crowning effect based on GP results can be very dangerous since they aren't historically very reliable predictors of what will happen later in the season. I feel when there are more than one elite male skater from the same country, you can't let these kind of biases clouding the results. This feels like gambling. Canada used to have more than one top male skater at many points in time. Yet the top guy's national championship trophy is never secure, even for a 4 times & reigning World Champion. You'd think they must be pretty stupid to do that just prior to the important Olympic Games but if they had treated Stojko unfairly, I don't think he will later be able to become a master of his own or winning the Silver at the Lillehammer Olympics that many thought should have been gold. The point is, national competition should be fair and just, not trying to pick a winner based on past results, which we are seeing here.

And Takahashi is their best skater, with falls or not, because for some reason Kozuka is screwed by the international judges once again.

I am not convinced that's true. This may well have been just conjecture, with no evidence to back up such claim. Kozuka has entered two events so far. He didn't skate well at Skate America, hence the lower score. In NHK, he was decisively beaten but that doesn't mean the international judges were sending him a message. There is also a danger of reading too much into the scores.

Skate Canada was not the only competition where Daisuke lost. Look at the scores he got at NHK trophy in the SP and the scores he got in the GPF(SP); see the difference in PCS? The same will happen again if Daisuke will fall 3 times in a competition, his PCS wil go downhill.

I must remind you, attempting to compare scores from two different events is as reliable as predicting next year's World Championship result based on GP results.

[SkateFiguring]

I think that Takahashi with such a performance at an internatinoal competition would not win, while Chan would.

Chan has won only once with 3 falls or more, at a GP event. He has never won, and would most unlikely win, with 3 falls over a clean or nearly clean Kozuka or Takahashi.

And I am not a Chan-basher, I am only an observer. And from my observations, I can hypothesize that in the future Chan can win almost any competition with many mistakes.

You have no facts to support such hypothesis. Chan won with some mistakes on some events when the other competitors make even more mistakes with lower degree of difficulties. He has won major events convincingly and cleanly while Takahashi has yet to win an event with no fall since his 2010 Worlds.

I think DianaSelene was referring that at a national competition there are national judges and they are more generous usually than the international ones. I don't think that under an international panel of judges Dai would have scored 5 points more on PCS than Kozuka(for example, at the GPF, in the SP , the mistakes he made affected his PCS a lot.) The international judges award Daisuke with great scores but when he is on. But when he makes mistakes, he is penalized, like he was in Skate Canada.

Takahashi's international LP scores:

*NHK 2010 1 Fall (PCS 83.58 - TES 74.17) = 9.41
*SA 2010 1 Fall (PCS 85.00 - TES 64.95) = 20.05
GPF 2010 2 Falls (PCS 81.00 - TES 58.20) = 22.80
*4CC 2011 1 Fall (PCS 82.86 - TES 78.65) = 4.21
Worlds 2011 2 Falls (PCS 82.08 - TES 71.64) = 10.44
SC 2011 0 Fall (PCS 83.84 - TES 69.37) = 14.47
*HHK 2011 1 Fall (PCS 90.28 - TES 80.08) = 10.20
GPF 2011 0 Fall (PCS 85.58 - TES 87.05) = -1.47

*First place at event.

In contrast, except for COR 2010, Chan's PCS and TES have been very close, no more than 3 point difference and less than his TES in some cases.

[wallylutz]

You are completely misunderstanding me and jumping to conclusions. From the very beginning, I did not say my statement in relation to Kozuka and Hanyu but competitions in general.

You certainly didn't mention Kozuka and Hanyu by name, that's true. But whom should we compare him to then in this competition? Machida?

Point out to me where I said that at an international competition, Kozuka would get higher scores than Takahashi.

Why do I have to that when you clearly said Takahashi's 3 falls win happened because it's a national event and wouldn't have won if it were not a national event. I call BS on that because it is.

I only said that Takahashi would get lower scores at an international competitions and guess what...

That's not what you wrote.

Yes, except this is a national competition where Takahashi won. At an international one, he would never win.

Sorry, but your attempt to change your words and reinterpret what you actually said isn't going to work when what you actually said was already frozen in quotes. It's quicker to just admit you misspoke and moved on, we all make mistakes.

[DianaSelene]

I will stop trying to convince people of something when they cannot be convinced. I might be wrong but is it not true that Chan wins often while making a bunch of mistakes? And that it will continue? He has the beautiful PCS to save him every time. I'm finished with this thread. Bye!

[DianaSelene]

You certainly didn't mention Kozuka and Hanyu by name, that's true. But whom should we compare him to then in this competition? Machida?



Why do I have to that when you clearly said Takahashi's 3 falls win happened because it's a national event and wouldn't have won if it were not a national event. I call BS on that because it is.



That's not what you wrote.

Sorry, but your attempt to change your words and reinterpret what you actually said isn't going to work when what you actually said was already frozen in quotes. It's quicker to just admit you misspoke and moved on, we all make mistakes.

Unlike you, Mirunna understood what I was trying to say, sorry that you didn't. You understood it how you wanted to. Au revoir.

[SkateFiguring]

I will stop trying to convince people of something when they cannot be convinced. I might be wrong but is it not true that Chan wins often while making a bunch of mistakes? And that it will continue? He has the beautiful PCS to save him every time. I'm finished with this thread. Bye!

And I can't convince you with facts and data while you keep repeating your declarations.