still hoping Mirai will win, but so not to jynx
1 Alissa Czisny
2 Mirai Nagasu
3 Ashley Wagner / Agnes Zawadzki
I don't see Gracie Gold. Is she going to be in junior nationals?
I think its probably for the best she doesn't as so many skaters have burnt out (Caroline Zhang is a good example of a skater who learned bad technique because she was rushed to senior level) and she probably wants to test the waters at junior level first.
I have faith in the swan
1) Jeremy Abbott
2) Adam Rippon
3) Ross Miner
I also want Richard Dornbush and Jason Brown to do well.
1) Ashley Wagner
2) Mirai Nagasu
3) Alissa Czisny
I think it's Ashley's year and she has fantastic programs. I don't trust Alissa to skate cleanly, but her programs are gorgeous and if she is clean she'll win for sure. I adore Mirai, but her programs disappoint me this season and she doesn't seem connected to them either.
1) Amanda Evora/Mark Ladwig
2) Caydee Denney/John Coughlin
3) Mary Beth Marley/Rockne Brubaker
Although I'd like to see an upset and M/B to place ahead of D/C. Still mad at John for ditching Caitlin. This is a tough one, it'll just come down to who's cleanest, the top three are evenly matched.
1) Meryl Davis/Charlie White
2) Madison Chock/Evan Bates
3) Maia Shibutani/Alex Shibutani
I'm placing C/B ahead of S/S because S/S have awful programs this season. If C/B skate clean I think they'll beat them.
*knock on wood I don't jinx anyone*
The Shibs' season's best is 35 POINTS above C/B. I know people have strong feelings about the Shibs' programs (i.e. hate them), but that's not indicative of how the judges at nationals will respond. The Shibs, I believe, have a higher base value in both programs to begin with and they will likely get +GOE. They also have reputation going for them as the reigning world bronze medalists. They also got some valuable feedback from their GPF showing and worked with Corky Ballas over the holidays, so no doubt that both programs will be in tip-top shape.
Originally Posted by futureidol
I have faith in the swan
C/B placing ahead of the Shibs was more wishful thinking on my part. I fully realize that S/S will likely get the silver and have scored higher than C/B so far this season. However, C/B had freak falls in both their GP assignments and we didn't get to see what their score would have been had they been clean so it's a little unfair to compare their scores to the Shibs when we didn't see what their full potential score was. Also since they are a "new team" they were probably somewhat underscored internationally. Also I feel US Nationals judging has always been more feel/entertainment oriented than international judging (i.e. Ryan Bradley winning gold last year, I realize it's a totally different discipline, but still no one saw that coming). So purely based on artistic value I enjoy C/B's programs much more than S/S's (this season) and I think they are more elegant, graceful, interesting, expressive, fluid, etc. (but that's a personal preference). But I also feel the Shibs are at a disadvantage with the SD because it's hard for brother and sister teams to pull off the sexy Latin themed dances, which I see as another opportunity for C/B to outshine them.
Originally Posted by Mrs. P
I really am not trying to bash the Shibs. I fell head over heels for them last season and was lucky enough to see them skate in person at Nationals In Greensboro, NC. They had fantastic programs that year, but this year I am not impressed (you say they have hired a choreographer to improve their programs, but I can't comment until I see it and I'm against judging things for their potential). And I feel Madison Chock and Evan Bates are two of the best ice dancers out there and shouldn't be held down just because they have a new partnership.
All this prediction stuff is just for fun, it's just an opinion, I didn't mean to offend anyone's sensibilities. I'm truly sorry if I upset you.
First of all, no offense taken on my part. This is a discussion forum, so I was explaining rationally — though as you probably see from past posts, I'm a fan of the Shibs — why a silver medal is unrealistic for C/B. You shouldn't feel afraid of offending anyone and you should feel free to defend your thoughts as well.
Originally Posted by futureidol
And just because you are a fan as someone, as you pointed out, doesn't mean that they should be free of criticism. I have mentioned in the past that I feel that in their FD that Alex and Maia aren't quite looking at each other enough and it seems more textbook swing than two people doing a swing dance.
That said, they are good at textbook dances, which can be seen in the SD as well, and in this current generation of ice dance judging it seems the ability to do the moves with technical precision is key. This is clearly seen in solid levels and +GOE at the GPF. Their relative lack of connection and perhaps a perceived issue of maturity can be seen in a slightly hammering in PCS scores. (Though they do well in several ares of PCS, such as skating skills).
I think C/B is beautiful and oooze tons of potential, but I don't think they have the TES to back them up. Even if you account for the freak fall and add a few levels on the twizzle sequence from their FD at TEB, which was affected by the fall, I don't think they would score higher than the high 80s. In addition, they did not score a ton of +GOE on the other elements (not affected by the fall). The Shibs, on the other hand consistently score solid + GOE (particularly in their twizzles), and even when they missed levels they still score in the low 90s.
I hope — and believe — that C/B down the road can make things more competitive, a la W/P has with C/P in the last few seasons in Canada, but I don't think it's a realistic prediction that they will overpass the Shibs this year. That said, I also think that C/B certainly have the right to strive and work at beating the Shibs. They are competitors and I would expect no less. (See my posts on the Rachael Flatt thread in The Edge on that topic).
Kind of off topic but I didn't feel like starting a new thread to ask- does anyone have the link on the icenetwork site for the live results? It's always so hidden.
Scratch that found it.
Last edited by missysays; 01-22-2012 at 02:33 PM.