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Thread: Worlds, 4CC, Jr. Worlds Teams

  1. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by NorthernDancers View Post
    Worlds: D/R (to finish around 5th), MT/M (because they have the most international ranking points compared to the other teams, only missed the GPF by a sliver, generally have had the most consistency throughout the season compared to the others, have more content than the others in the program to generate points, and have the strongest possibility of giving Canada 3 spots for pairs next season)
    I'm sorry that M-T&M messed up in the LP because my ideal team would have been D&R and M-T&M but Dube and Wolfe really skated the best they possibly could and won the silver fair and square.

    I think Meaghan and Eric could possibly medal at Worlds. I don't think their scores at Canadians were inflated at all. They didn't skate a clean LP in their GP events and still scored well. Just adding in the marks they missed with mistakes would have given them around 125, without any GoE or PCS boost for a clean program with those difficult elements, so 129 or more for a clean program internationally is entirely possible for them. The Zhangs are weak in basic skating, SBS spins (a strength for D&R), and transitions. Pang & Tong often struggle with the jumps and haven't competed at all this season. Bazarova & Lirianov pretty much maxxed out their score at TEB. They're doing lower level elements than the other teams and are prone to making mistakes. K&S just pulled out of Europeans due to his recent surgery, and it's difficult to know what kind of shape they'll be in at Worlds. They do have gorgeous programs this year, but they too are prone to mistakes, and Yuka never hits a really nice position.

    I know I'm not the most objective person when it comes to D&R, but I'm starting to believe that, if they skate as well as they did at Canadians, they could beat everyone save V&T and the Germans.

  2. #62
    Wicked Yankee Girl dorispulaski's Avatar
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    Yes, and last year Kharis's father died unexpectedly. It is no wonder that their performance last year was subpar. I never knew about this in fanworld last year. I don't consider R&H's last year's performance typical of their best, anymore than I consider this year's performance at Skate America typical of P&I's best, due to their summer difficulties.

    However, their NHK SD and their Nationals SD were at about the same level. If their problem is lingering injuries, then they don't need another competition at 4CC's. They need to regroup and recover instead.

    Realistically, at 4CC's, they will finish no higher than 5th or 6th-of course V&M and W&P and D&W and S&S will all beat them, and there is a good chance that whomever is the 3rd place US team will beat them as well (certain K/G-S beat them in the SD at NHK and and Hubbell & Donahue also beat them handily at SA. Chock/Bates' SD has been good, if they're the 3rd place team. ). There is a possibility that the top Chinese team (or two) and the Reeds will beat them as well. They tied for last in the SD at NHK with the Reeds. They were beaten by A&V, who didn't even qualify for the Italian team to Worlds, as they finished 3rd at Italian Nationals this December:

    1 Elena ILINYKH / Nikita KATSALAPOV RUS 61.83 29.86 31.97 7.96 7.68 8.11 8.04 8.11 0.00 #6
    2 Kaitlyn WEAVER / Andrew POJE CAN 60.07 28.51 31.56 7.79 7.61 7.89 7.96 8.11 0.00 #8
    3 Maia SHIBUTANI / Alex SHIBUTANI USA 59.02 29.50 30.52 7.71 7.43 7.71 7.68 7.61 1.00 #7
    4 Nelli ZHIGANSHINA / Alexander GAZSI GER 55.69 29.50 27.19 6.93 6.57 6.82 6.82 6.82 1.00 #5
    5 Lorenza ALESSANDRINI / Simone VATURI ITA 54.37 29.22 25.15 6.11 5.93 6.46 6.36 6.50 0.00 #3
    6 Lynn KRIENGKRAIRUT / Logan GIULIETTI-SCHMITT USA 50.81 27.79 23.02 5.75 5.46 5.82 5.93 5.79 0.00 #1
    7 Alexandra PAUL / Mitchell ISLAM CAN 49.36 26.29 23.07 5.93 5.68 5.75 5.71 5.75 0.00 #2
    8 Cathy REED / Chris REED JPN 49.36 24.63 24.73 6.29 6.04 6.21 6.18 6.18 0.00 #4
    Last edited by dorispulaski; 01-24-2012 at 02:04 PM.

  3. #63
    Constable , Costume Police colleen o'neill's Avatar
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    I'm a little bit ambivalent about the 4CC dance assignments ... I guess we'll just have to see where the chips fall.

    R/H did have Nebelhorn ,as has been pointed out , where they were on the podium, but still , were beaten by Hubbell / Donohue ( and Z/G ).. Thinking in terms of how well Canada's third entry could be expected to place in the very potent 4CC field, I don't think R/H's chances are any better against the various teams doris mentions than P/I's. So from that point of view , it's a wash , for me .

    Do P/I need to be getting on to next year's agenda ASAP ? You bet ( I won't go into that on this thread , I'm still hashing it all over...) , but then , I don't think a 2 week delay will make much difference in that respect. OTOH, I don't know if 2 weeks will get them much farther along the road to regaining the kind of confidence and command that they displayed at last year's Canadians... so , another wash.

    I wish they had not been rushed into Skate America. She was obviously not properly recovered. ( I know they couldn't be sure of a second opportunity opening up , but if you're not ready , you're not ready.) Then, once they did SA , and it was seen they weren't ready..I think they should not have taken NHK and just focused on getting ready for Canadians .( I think it was only a 3week turnaround ?.. anyway , not much time. )

    I have to say, I think this was poor judgement on the part of SC and their coaching staff . For sure, no-one could foresee the accident..but they knew R/H were competition ready ,had improved quite a lot , and had the best FD they've ever had ..and they had to be aware of the drumbeat going on for G/P in the background, and should have known that Canadians was going to be the biggie for P/I this year. ( Better to be 100% ready for Canadians , than say , maybe 75% ready for NHK )

    If I was R/H , I'd have to say to myself.. It's a little scary that P/I can have the kind of disasterous season they've had and still be so close in points ( and actually beat us in the FD , our strength.. ) ... Obviously , I can only hope to be second priority at my rink , and there's a lot of other very good outside talent coming up just over my shoulder...time to make a move.
    Last edited by colleen o'neill; 01-24-2012 at 04:50 PM.

  4. #64
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dragonlady View Post
    I'm sorry that M-T&M messed up in the LP because my ideal team would have been D&R and M-T&M but Dube and Wolfe really skated the best they possibly could and won the silver fair and square.

    I think Meaghan and Eric could possibly medal at Worlds. I don't think their scores at Canadians were inflated at all. They didn't skate a clean LP in their GP events and still scored well. Just adding in the marks they missed with mistakes would have given them around 125, without any GoE or PCS boost for a clean program with those difficult elements, so 129 or more for a clean program internationally is entirely possible for them. The Zhangs are weak in basic skating, SBS spins (a strength for D&R), and transitions. Pang & Tong often struggle with the jumps and haven't competed at all this season. Bazarova & Lirianov pretty much maxxed out their score at TEB. They're doing lower level elements than the other teams and are prone to making mistakes. K&S just pulled out of Europeans due to his recent surgery, and it's difficult to know what kind of shape they'll be in at Worlds. They do have gorgeous programs this year, but they too are prone to mistakes, and Yuka never hits a really nice position.

    I know I'm not the most objective person when it comes to D&R, but I'm starting to believe that, if they skate as well as they did at Canadians, they could beat everyone save V&T and the Germans.

    I have no issue with D/R going to 4CC and Worlds. They won the championship, and completely deserved to win it. Their programs were beautiful to watch. I also agree that D/W won the silver fair and square. No issue there, either. But let's be honest. They won fair and square because MT/M had a really bad night. The level of difficulty in MT/M programs is much higher than D/W. They also just missed the GPF, and won two bronze medals in the GP circuit. They generally are reasonably consistent. When the goal of Worlds is to earn 3 spots to next year, the teams most capable of achieving this should go. That's D/R and MT/M. D/W are not fully developed yet to achieve that kind of results. It's not fair to put that expectation on them when they are in their first season, he is just up from Junior, and they need time to grow and develop together. They are promising, and let's give them a chance to achieve that promise. (BTW, I've always been a fan of Dube.)

  5. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by dorispulaski View Post
    Yes, and last year Kharis's father died unexpectedly. It is no wonder that their performance last year was subpar. I never knew about this in fanworld last year. I don't consider R&H's last year's performance typical of their best, anymore than I consider this year's performance at Skate America typical of P&I's best, due to their summer difficulties.

    However, their NHK SD and their Nationals SD were at about the same level. If their problem is lingering injuries, then they don't need another competition at 4CC's. They need to regroup and recover instead.

    Realistically, at 4CC's, they will finish no higher than 5th or 6th-of course V&M and W&P and D&W and S&S will all beat them, and there is a good chance that whomever is the 3rd place US team will beat them as well (certain K/G-S beat them in the SD at NHK and and Hubbell & Donahue also beat them handily at SA. Chock/Bates' SD has been good, if they're the 3rd place team. ). There is a possibility that the top Chinese team (or two) and the Reeds will beat them as well. They tied for last in the SD at NHK with the Reeds. They were beaten by A&V, who didn't even qualify for the Italian team to Worlds, as they finished 3rd at Italian Nationals this December:

    1 Elena ILINYKH / Nikita KATSALAPOV RUS 61.83 29.86 31.97 7.96 7.68 8.11 8.04 8.11 0.00 #6
    2 Kaitlyn WEAVER / Andrew POJE CAN 60.07 28.51 31.56 7.79 7.61 7.89 7.96 8.11 0.00 #8
    3 Maia SHIBUTANI / Alex SHIBUTANI USA 59.02 29.50 30.52 7.71 7.43 7.71 7.68 7.61 1.00 #7
    4 Nelli ZHIGANSHINA / Alexander GAZSI GER 55.69 29.50 27.19 6.93 6.57 6.82 6.82 6.82 1.00 #5
    5 Lorenza ALESSANDRINI / Simone VATURI ITA 54.37 29.22 25.15 6.11 5.93 6.46 6.36 6.50 0.00 #3
    6 Lynn KRIENGKRAIRUT / Logan GIULIETTI-SCHMITT USA 50.81 27.79 23.02 5.75 5.46 5.82 5.93 5.79 0.00 #1
    7 Alexandra PAUL / Mitchell ISLAM CAN 49.36 26.29 23.07 5.93 5.68 5.75 5.71 5.75 0.00 #2
    8 Cathy REED / Chris REED JPN 49.36 24.63 24.73 6.29 6.04 6.21 6.18 6.18 0.00 #4

    I apologize. I didn't know about Kharis Ralph's father.

    I agree that P/I probably won't fare too well at 4CC, but I don't think that R/H would have either, to be honest. I like their material, but their technical levels are always a tad behind the rest. At least this way, they both get some international exposure and experience.

  6. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by colleen o'neill View Post
    I'm a little bit ambivalent about the 4CC dance assignments ... I guess we'll just have to see where the chips fall.

    If I was R/H , I'd have to say to myself.. It's a little scary that P/I can have the kind of disasterous season they've had and still be so close in points ( and actually beat us in the FD , our strength.. ) ... Obviously , I can only hope to be second priority at my rink , and there's a lot of other very good outside talent coming up just over my shoulder...time to make a move.
    Well, it's even worse than that. R/H were 6th in the FD. They were beaten by O/W by fractions of a point. I also think they need to really consider going elsewhere. They need to go somewhere they will have the opportunity to work on some of their weaknesses: posture, lines, soft knees, packaging. And they should go where they can be the top team at the rink and get the attention they need to really focus on these things. There are at least 2 rinks within a couple hours' drive of where they currently live and train that would fit that criteria.

  7. #67
    Constable , Costume Police colleen o'neill's Avatar
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    'Dancers... I know..I didn't want to rub it in.

    Kharis worked very hard after what was a sad year for her. Both have improved, but it still angers me that they weren't getting that extra work all along . ( And I still don't think they've been getting all they need )
    Last edited by colleen o'neill; 01-24-2012 at 05:24 PM.

  8. #68
    Custom Title DianaSelene's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dragonlady View Post
    I'm sorry that M-T&M messed up in the LP because my ideal team would have been D&R and M-T&M but Dube and Wolfe really skated the best they possibly could and won the silver fair and square.

    I think Meaghan and Eric could possibly medal at Worlds. I don't think their scores at Canadians were inflated at all. They didn't skate a clean LP in their GP events and still scored well. Just adding in the marks they missed with mistakes would have given them around 125, without any GoE or PCS boost for a clean program with those difficult elements, so 129 or more for a clean program internationally is entirely possible for them. The Zhangs are weak in basic skating, SBS spins (a strength for D&R), and transitions. Pang & Tong often struggle with the jumps and haven't competed at all this season. Bazarova & Lirianov pretty much maxxed out their score at TEB. They're doing lower level elements than the other teams and are prone to making mistakes. K&S just pulled out of Europeans due to his recent surgery, and it's difficult to know what kind of shape they'll be in at Worlds. They do have gorgeous programs this year, but they too are prone to mistakes, and Yuka never hits a really nice position.

    I know I'm not the most objective person when it comes to D&R, but I'm starting to believe that, if they skate as well as they did at Canadians, they could beat everyone save V&T and the Germans.
    If they skate just as well as here. However, D/R have skated pretty poorly in the grand prix events. This is the first time this season they hit all their elements.

  9. #69
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    Quote Originally Posted by DianaSelene View Post
    If they skate just as well as here. However, D/R have skated pretty poorly in the grand prix events. This is the first time this season they hit all their elements.
    Oh, I think that's clear. IF they skate as they did (or better) at Canadian Nationals and IF the two bronze medal candidates (K/S and P/T) err, along with B/L (I think D/R can beat a solid Zhangs thanks to base value) then a medal is possible. Top five at Worlds would be an epic achievement for them, however, and one to be proud of.

  10. #70
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    For reviews to bolster the arguments, watch the full show of Pairs Final and Dance Free Final on www.ctv.ca, very good quality on full screen.

  11. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    Who do you consider to be the number two ranked woman from Canada at the moment?
    The rank of skaters from a given country is determined by the results of the respective Championship. For example, Bradley is the U.S. Men's Champion, therefore, he is the top rank skater from the U.S. at the moment. Doesn't mean he is the "Best" male skater in the U.S. right now but is the #1 man from the USA.

    To answer your question, because Phaneuf finished 2nd at the most recent Canadian National, she is the 2nd rank woman in her country at the moment.

    I have always been a proponent of using Continental Championship as a qualifying event, in the situations where the results from a National Championship is inconclusive, like Abbott losing to Miner by 0.18 at the 2011 U.S. Nationals. The difference was so small that it could have been simply a luck of draw and/or computational difference. That decision was robotic and senseless that it was akin to put a person in jail because drugs are found in his backpack even though it was planted by someone else without his knowledge. It defies common sense. That's why rule of the law are implemented based on the circumstances with varied outcomes, not some black or white delineation based on decimal points.

  12. #72
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    Quote Originally Posted by ImaginaryPogue View Post
    Oh, I think that's clear. IF they skate as they did (or better) at Canadian Nationals and IF the two bronze medal candidates (K/S and P/T) err, along with B/L (I think D/R can beat a solid Zhangs thanks to base value) then a medal is possible. Top five at Worlds would be an epic achievement for them, however, and one to be proud of.
    B&L pretty much maxxed out their score at TEB and scored 125, skating as well as they possibly could. I think that, if clean, D&R would have no problem beating B&L who do SBS 3T's, and a 2A/2A sequence for their jumps, and have lower levels on their other elements as well. Added to which, B&L are not the most consistent with their elements, either.

    With the news that Smirnov was treated for diverticulitis and only returned to the ice last week, it appears that K&S may not be back at full strength either. P&T have yet to compete this season, so who knows what kind of shape they're in.

    D&R have had the most ambitious technical content of all of the Pairs this season, so why is it surprising that a team in only their second season may have struggled with a difficult program early on. Meagan and Eric are workers. They want it and they want it bad. Never discount this as motivation.

  13. #73
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dragonlady View Post
    B&L pretty much maxxed out their score at TEB and scored 125, skating as well as they possibly could. I think that, if clean, D&R would have no problem beating B&L who do SBS 3T's, and a 2A/2A sequence for their jumps, and have lower levels on their other elements as well. Added to which, B&L are not the most consistent with their elements, either.

    With the news that Smirnov was treated for diverticulitis and only returned to the ice last week, it appears that K&S may not be back at full strength either. P&T have yet to compete this season, so who knows what kind of shape they're in.

    D&R have had the most ambitious technical content of all of the Pairs this season, so why is it surprising that a team in only their second season may have struggled with a difficult program early on. Meagan and Eric are workers. They want it and they want it bad. Never discount this as motivation.
    B/L will likely have higher PCS in both programs, which counteracts the high base value D/R have and a clean element from B/L will score more than a clean element for D/R. If both are clean, PCS + GOEs will give it to B/L, imo.

    As for P/T, I believe they will err. They are a great team, but their weaknesses (UR jumps) will not right themselves. They aren't the type of skaters that can take a year off and then expect to win gold. My question is how much do they err?
    Last edited by ImaginaryPogue; 01-25-2012 at 10:38 AM.

  14. #74
    Spiral Lover tulosai's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ImaginaryPogue View Post
    B/L will likely have higher PCS in both programs, which counteracts the high base value D/R have and a clean element from B/L will score more than a clean element for D/R. If both are clean, PCS + GOEs will give it to B/L, imo.

    As for P/T, I believe they will err. They are a great team, but their weaknesses (UR jumps) will not right themselves. They aren't the type of skaters that can take a year off and then expect to win gold. My question is how much do they err?
    I agree that the edge is to B/L especially since they (seem to) have fixed their side by side jumps which have held them back in the past. I do not think either team has a 'one error' advantage over the other though, and if B/L make an error or two, and D/R do not, I could see D/R beating them.

    As for the rest, I do think there is an extreme outside chance of D/R cracking the top 3 but I think top 5 is a more realistic goal and would still be a fantastic achievement for them.

  15. #75
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    Quote Originally Posted by ImaginaryPogue View Post
    B/L will likely have higher PCS in both programs, which counteracts the high base value D/R have and a clean element from B/L will score more than a clean element for D/R. If both are clean, PCS + GOEs will give it to B/L, imo.
    While I agree that B&L will likely have higher PCS, if, both are clean, the higher score will go to D&R who will also get a PCS boost for a clean skate with more difficult elements. And I would stress that the LP at TEB is about the only time I've seen B&L skate clean.

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