Worlds, 4CC, Jr. Worlds Teams | Page 3 | Golden Skate

Worlds, 4CC, Jr. Worlds Teams

nadster

Final Flight
Joined
Feb 1, 2004
As for junior worlds, the team is just perfect. The only thing that surprised me was the decision to send the novice pairs champs and not the 2nd or 3rd place junior teams. It will be interesting to see how Bell/Sylvester fare when their first junior competition ever will be junior worlds.


Not surprised given the scores at nationals. Bell/Sylvester do have the throw triple loop ( they did it in FS ) which they could not do in the novice short program ( but can do in the junior short program ). The other factor is that the multipliers at novice are lower than the junior ones. So their real junior scores would be much higher ( even with the novice bonuses taken out and the falls deductions added in.

Here is my attempt to juniorize Bell/Sylvester's score at nationals. I used all the raw scores on the detailed protocols to come up with my numbers. Grant you this is not an exact science but it is always fun to crunch the numbers. In the novice protocols , I assume a fall when I see a mainly -3 GOE on an element. Since I did not see that level of GOE anywhere , I am assuming no falls in B/S's 2 performances.


Short program

TES 24.45 ( novice ) - would be the same in junior with the same content . Keep in mind they would likely add more points to the score if they did a throw triple loop that they are capable of doing. If I replaced their score in the long program for the triple loop throw for the original double loop throw they would score 5.12 points instead of 3.63 points. So they would gain about 1.5 points in TES in the short.

The adjusted junior PCS would be different however since the novice multipliers are lower than the junior ones.

PCS in novice is 15.31. Adjusted with junior multipliers the PCS is 17.47.

Long program

TES is 43.75 I will take away the bonus point for the throw triple loop to get 42.75 for an adjusted junior score.

PCS in novice is 33.71. Adjusted with junior multipliers that score becomes 38.48.

Total score

Bell/Sylvester's novice total score is 118.22. I have a junior adjusted score of 124.64.

The junior silver medalists, Krystel Desjardins / Charlie Bilodeau, scored 40.10 in the short and 82.37 in the long for a total of 122.47.
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
Mathman, when we've had this discussion in the past, I've been a little more sanguine about it than you have. Generally, 9 times out of 10, the best do win Nationals/rank. I've understood the need to send the best "team" to Worlds/international events as generally and the feeling that there should be some way to counteract for an off competition. But there's something about the LaCoste/Phaneuf situation that bothers me - it feels mendacious.

I had to look up "mendacious" in the dictionary. Can you explain more why it bothers you, IP?

I think what bothers me that this was not Cynthia having an "off-night" rather she has gone on a downward spiral since that 5th place finish at Worlds. Amelie, doesn't have a lutz or flip, but so what? (Ksenia Markova managed top 10 finishes without a lutz and can barely do a flip.) And when you consider that Cynthia could not even beat Rachael Flatt, who was injured at Worlds and had a terrible LP, you have to question why she's being considered for the spot at all.
 

heyhey

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 31, 2011
Having listened to Duhamel/Radford being interviewed after their win, they made it clear what their goals are for the rest of the season - win the 4CC title, then aim for top 5 at Worlds. They do not plan to skip 4CC; they want to go up against the Chinese teams and if possible take the title. They'd also like to qualify for the WTT. SC will not deny D/R a spot at 4CC - D/R are their top pairs team no doubt, they just won nationals by 20 points, and SC wants to support their chances of future success.

So with D/R taking one 4CC spot, how can they send M-T/M for a skate-off with D/W? They'd have to deny a spot to L/S, who need the chance to post a good score to enhance their opportunities for GP's next year, and who beat M-T/M at Nationals. I feel sorry for M-T/M, but I don't see how SC can justify leaving any of the other teams off the 4CC roster.

Points well taken - however that is the beauty of having 3 world spots in ice-dance. Paul/Islam get to go to 4CCs - which is huge for them. At this point - I think securing that 3rd worlds spot in pairs is more important for next year since it is a Worlds right before the Olympics and you have 4 talented teams still growing with a talented junior team turning senior next year. With all the injuries we are seeing - that 3rd worlds spot is important.

ETA: So just missing the GP finals - which D/R squeezed in over M-T/M - doesn't count for anything? I mean there is no easy solution - but I don't think Skate Canada has really thought this out...
 
Last edited:

ImaginaryPogue

Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 3, 2009
I don't think Skate Canada really expected to be in this position. I think they thought that Cynthia's six weeks with Orser would right the ship and she'd win her third National title. That didn't happen. Now, we can say that it didn't happen because Amelie had the skate of her life, but that's not true. Amelie left points on the table. She singled two triples. She had a fall. We can also say it didn't happen because Phaneuf left points on the table. Sure, she landed some more jumps, but jumps aren't everything - check out her levels. Phaneuf had FIVE level one and two elements between her two programs. She lost the LP TES to LaCoste, who friggin singled two jumps, and then complained that her components were too low (no, sorry - high sixes/low sevens is fair, imo). And when you recall that Cynthia lost World bronze because she got a level two on her spiral.

I feel like this is an attempt to give Cynthia ONE MORE CHANCE to earn a Worlds spot. She didn't earn it with her GP performances. She didn't earn it with Nationals. Had the reverse been true - had Amelie scored lower on the GP and earned silver at Nationals despite beating Phaneuf in the LP - I think SC would be sending Phaneuf, no question. And that rankles. Yes, Amelie can still earn it. But she already has.
 

wallylutz

Medalist
Joined
Mar 23, 2010
And when you consider that Cynthia could not even beat Rachael Flatt, who was injured at Worlds and had a terrible LP, you have to question why she's being considered for the spot at all.

Because the year before, she beat them all, including the reigning U.S. Champion and Silver Medalist at Worlds even a Canadian Silver medalist. I don't a 2nd rank woman from Canada has ever beat the #1 and #2 ladies from the U.S. in an Olympic year.
 

NorthernDancers

On the Ice
Joined
Jan 15, 2010
NorthernDancers, Dube/Wolfe have already been to two GPs.

And their programs have been proven to not be competitive on the world level. Sending them out again when they aren't really ready will perhaps hurt them more in the end. And it won't help Canada get 3 spots next year. 3 spots are within reach if we send the teams with the best overall record, international ranking, and international level programs.
 

tulosai

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 21, 2011
And their programs have been proven to not be competitive on the world level. Sending them out again when they aren't really ready will perhaps hurt them more in the end. And it won't help Canada get 3 spots next year. 3 spots are within reach if we send the teams with the best overall record, international ranking, and international level programs.

I don't really agree with the first part of your argument. I think the exposure will be good for them even with the fact that their level of difficulty is not as high assuming they can skate two relatively clean programs. It will help them build their PCS for next season because the fact is judges to give higher ones to teams who have been out there more almost without exception, sometimes without any other noticeable justification or reason. I think sending them will only hurt them if they preform DISASTROUSLY, and based on Nationals I do not see that happening.

However, I do agree that not sending them may hurt Canada and that MT/M provide a higher chance of 3 spots. That said if D/R do get 5th or 4th I do believe it is possible that a clean or nearly clean D/W could get the 3 spots too. Chances just aren't AS high. Either way Canada has evidently decided that this is the way to go for whatever reason- I am not too bothered by it and am more perplexed by the ladies situation.
 

swier

Spectator
Joined
Dec 6, 2006
I 100% agre with all of this. The goal should be to ensure maximum number of entries to worlds for next year, which means MT/M should be going to worlds this year. If there is any doubt, use 4CC as a skate-off for the 2, 3 and 4 teams. There is also a potential downside to putting D/W out there internationally too soon. I was very impressed with how well they have come along through the season. But in no way are they are ready for the world stage yet. And given that Dube is a former world medalist, it will not help them to show up internationally without enough goods to be competitive. The narrative is not right, and could actually harm them when they are ready for prime time.

MT/M had 1 really bad skate at the worst time. They have improved just a tremendous amount this season, seriously worked on their weaknesses, and had a great showing in the GP season. Saturday night was not their night. It happens once in awhile. That does not discount their current world ranking and all the good things they have done throughout the season. They are great people with great attitudes and winning spirits. They are huge role-models for the sport. I'm sure they will draw on all of that now, with the help of their coaches and hometown fans.


L/S had a great performance - especially now that we know Paige was skating with concussion. Sending them to Worlds and M-T/M ,D/R and D/W to 4CC would have given the injured team time to recover and still gave all four teams the chance to compete this season. Last year L/S peaked later in the season and won the bronze at 4CC.
 

heyhey

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 31, 2011
I don't really agree with the first part of your argument. I think the exposure will be good for them even with the fact that their level of difficulty is not as high assuming they can skate two relatively clean programs. It will help them build their PCS for next season because the fact is judges to give higher ones to teams who have been out there more almost without exception, sometimes without any other noticeable justification or reason. I think sending them will only hurt them if they preform DISASTROUSLY, and based on Nationals I do not see that happening.

However, I do agree that not sending them may hurt Canada and that MT/M provide a higher chance of 3 spots. That said if D/R do get 5th or 4th I do believe it is possible that a clean or nearly clean D/W could get the 3 spots too. Chances just aren't AS high. Either way Canada has evidently decided that this is the way to go for whatever reason- I am not too bothered by it and am more perplexed by the ladies situation.

Dube/Wolfe skated 2 clean programs at Nationals. However, when Jessica is not on with her jumps - things can unravel quickly. Add the lower level of difficulty internationally and you can see the scores dip. Yes they have improved and added the triple twist since the GP series but I am not as confident as you (I have to admit that I saw them live in the summer at Quebec sectionals and it was bad on many levels - so perhaps that is where my bias is coming from)...
 

Bluebonnet

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 18, 2010
Pet peeve time again. Do-overs, partial credit, this one doesn't count, um OK best two out of three?

It's not my job to tell Skate Canada what to do (unlike USFS ;)) but -- y'all should send the best lady in Canada to worlds. You should have a competition to determine who the best lady in Canada is. No mulligans, no King's X. Go big or go home. :yes:

JMO :)

It might not always be the case, but Skate Canada is smarter than USFSA on this team selection!:yes:
 
Last edited:

tulosai

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 21, 2011
Dube/Wolfe skated 2 clean programs at Nationals. However, when Jessica is not on with her jumps - things can unravel quickly. Add the lower level of difficulty internationally and you can see the scores dip. Yes they have improved and added the triple twist since the GP series but I am not as confident as you (I have to admit that I saw them live in the summer at Quebec sectionals and it was bad on many levels - so perhaps that is where my bias is coming from)...

I have to admit in the interest of full disclosure that unlike some I am a fan of Dube so maybe I'm a little biased myself. I do think that at the very least they didn't unravel under pressure which I do think bodes well. As for the jumps, it is true but the same could be said for many pairs teams (even possible MT/M). I guess we'll see. The situation is unfortunate as obviously it would be preferred that everyone had skated their best and the chips could have fallen where they may that way...
 

callalily

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 11, 2005
Dube/Wolfe skated 2 clean programs at Nationals. However, when Jessica is not on with her jumps - things can unravel quickly. Add the lower level of difficulty internationally and you can see the scores dip. Yes they have improved and added the triple twist since the GP series but I am not as confident as you (I have to admit that I saw them live in the summer at Quebec sectionals and it was bad on many levels - so perhaps that is where my bias is coming from)...

I hear you, but they had just begun working together in the summer. Jessica has not in the past (in her last years with Bryce) been consistent with her 3sal, but neither is Paige (3toe). It's always interesting to me that Jessica gets criticized for this, but L/S don't. Regardless...D/W scored better than L/S at Skate Canada, Jess is known internationally, and D/W's style is smoother with better lines. I think they'll do well internationally, if they execute their elements.

I personally was hoping that D/W would not qualify this year for Worlds, so they could build their skills for another year before shooting for that goal. But they nailed most of their elements at Nats, so here we are.

We are lucky to have 4 strong teams (plus a fifth coming up to senior next year). There won't be room for all of them at Worlds/Olys, but that hopefully will make them stronger as they compete with one another for those spots.
 

tulosai

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 21, 2011
I personally was hoping that D/W would not qualify this year for Worlds, so they could build their skills for another year before shooting for that goal. But they nailed most of their elements at Nats, so here we are.

We are lucky to have 4 strong teams (plus a fifth coming up to senior next year). There won't be room for all of them at Worlds/Olys, but that hopefully will make them stronger as they compete with one another for those spots.

This is 100% how I feel. I am actively trying to avoid picking a real favorite because I know I'm going to be so disappointed in the Oly year when only 3 (or god forbid 2) can make it.
 

heyhey

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 31, 2011
I have to admit in the interest of full disclosure that unlike some I am a fan of Dube so maybe I'm a little biased myself. I do think that at the very least they didn't unravel under pressure which I do think bodes well. As for the jumps, it is true but the same could be said for many pairs teams (even possible MT/M). I guess we'll see. The situation is unfortunate as obviously it would be preferred that everyone had skated their best and the chips could have fallen where they may that way...

Well I appreciate your disclosure and you are right that anyone can have issues with jumps. One thing for sure is that you can never predict what can happen. Even with top teams and there are no guarantees - so we will see where the chips fall. But at least we are having great discussions on this topic, LOL!

ETA: Just read two posts above - tulosai and callily - and I have to agree that Dube/Wolfe have already achieved their goals for this year and will continue to grow - but now the pressure will be on at Worlds to get that 3rd spot....and what if they don't do well at 4CCs? I am playing devils advocate of course...
 
Last edited:

NorthernDancers

On the Ice
Joined
Jan 15, 2010
L/S had a great performance - especially now that we know Paige was skating with concussion. Sending them to Worlds and M-T/M ,D/R and D/W to 4CC would have given the injured team time to recover and still gave all four teams the chance to compete this season. Last year L/S peaked later in the season and won the bronze at 4CC.

Seriously? She had a concussion? Those pairs girls are tough!


The dance placements were very well done, I think. I don't see why this can't be done for pairs.

4CC: D/R (to bring home the gold or at least a medal), D/W (to place well, get some experience and confidence internationally), and L/S (to give them some more international experience)

Worlds: D/R (to finish around 5th), MT/M (because they have the most international ranking points compared to the other teams, only missed the GPF by a sliver, generally have had the most consistency throughout the season compared to the others, have more content than the others in the program to generate points, and have the strongest possibility of giving Canada 3 spots for pairs next season)
 

dorispulaski

Wicked Yankee Girl
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
Country
United-States
I would have sent R&H to 4CC's as well as Worlds. But that's just me. R&H have had only one international outing this year. P&I have had 2, and at both they were disappointing. R&H are going to Worlds. They need the extra international exposure, particularly as they are so much improved from last year.

I wrote about this here, so I won't retype it:

http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/showthread.php?35951-Free-Dance&p=608393&viewfull=1#post608393

P&I do not impress me that much at this point.
 

skatingfan04

Final Flight
Joined
Sep 1, 2007
I would have sent R&H to 4CC's as well as Worlds. But that's just me. R&H have had only one international outing this year. P&I have had 2, and at both they were disappointing. R&H are going to Worlds. They need the extra international exposure, particularly as they are so much improved from last year.

I wrote about this here, so I won't retype it:

http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/showthread.php?35951-Free-Dance&p=608393&viewfull=1#post608393

P&I do not impress me that much at this point.

You forget to mention the fact that P/I were already dealing with one serious injury prior to the beginning of the season, pulled out of a number of summer competitions and missed a huge chunk of training in the months before Skate America where R/H beat them. They also managed to fall twice and trip once in the SD there, which put them so far down the ranking that they had no chance to redeem themselves, even though they skated a really nice FD there (which was scored painfully low despte the fact that the British Eurosport commentators were quite impressed). They never got to finish their second GP event because Alexandra was seriously injured yet again, which also means that they missed out on even more training prior to nationals. In spite of all of this, they managed to nearly beat R/H at nationals (with R/H being much improved over last season), even beating them in the FD.

Considering that, as well as the fact they they essentially decimated R/H last season at nationals and in their international scores, I think SC was very wise to send them to 4CC. I think they have a really good chance of surpassing R/H next season provided they remain healthy, and this bit of exposure will do them good.

Not liking their programs is one thing, but I think its unfair to judge them without considering how difficult their season has been.
 
Joined
Jun 21, 2003
It might not always be the case, but Skate Canada is smarter than USFSA on this team selection!:yes:

It's a question of fairness to the skaters. If the situation between Phaneuf and LaCoste had been reversed we would not hear a peep about a skate-off at Four Continents.

The only time USFS broke its own rule for sending ladies to Worlds was in 2008. Katrina Hacker finished ahead of Kimmie Meissner and should have gone to worlds. They sent Meissner, the 2006 world champion and 2007 U.S. champion instead. Meissner finished 7th at worlds, losing the U.S. its third spot, which has never been regained.

See? The skate gods punished USFS for doing Hacker wrong. :yes:
 

blue eyed birds

Spectator
Joined
Nov 7, 2011
Also, P/I and R/H have had the same number of international outings this season -- R/H did Nebelhorn. One could elevate the GP assignments above a Senior B, but given that P/I's NHK outing was obviously cut short by extenuating circumstances, I'm not sure they've necessarily had such greater experience this year than the others have.
 
Top